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2021-06-17

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Walmart: Buy On Weakness For Its Exciting International Growth Prospects<blockquote>沃尔玛：因其令人兴奋的国际增长前景而逢低买入</blockquote>

Summary Walmart’s international segment is expected to lead the company’s revenue growth in the yea

Walmart: Buy On Weakness For Its Exciting International Growth Prospects<blockquote>沃尔玛：因其令人兴奋的国际增长前景而逢低买入</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":161827047,"tweetId":"161827047","gmtCreate":1623919026189,"gmtModify":1631890326339,"author":{"id":3586571810369892,"idStr":"3586571810369892","authorId":3586571810369892,"authorIdStr":"3586571810369892","name":"BaneLim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1ecbd9550298b70cfa8a460b1be7d83","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>hmmm</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>hmmm</body></html>","text":"hmmm","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161827047","repostId":1138373077,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138373077","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623915483,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138373077?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 15:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Walmart: Buy On Weakness For Its Exciting International Growth Prospects<blockquote>沃尔玛：因其令人兴奋的国际增长前景而逢低买入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138373077","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWalmart’s international segment is expected to lead the company’s revenue growth in the yea","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Walmart’s international segment is expected to lead the company’s revenue growth in the years ahead.</li> <li>The company’s leadership through Flipkart in the rapidly growing India market is expected to be a key competitive advantage as it scales up to compete against Amazon India.</li> <li>At the current price, Walmart is not expensive, and offers an attractive entry point for investors to partake in its international growth drivers.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af09545cba715476092d754f8df38e8a\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">Wolterk/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>沃尔玛的国际部门预计将在未来几年引领公司的收入增长。</li><li>该公司通过Flipkart在快速增长的印度市场的领导地位预计将成为其扩大规模以与亚马逊印度竞争的关键竞争优势。</li><li>以目前的价格来看，沃尔玛并不昂贵，并为投资者参与其国际增长动力提供了一个有吸引力的切入点。</li></ul>Wolterk/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Walmart (WMT) has very exciting growth prospects in its international markets, especially in India where the market is expected to overtake Canada as the second largest international market segment, behind the leader Mexico by 2025. In addition, the company’s astute investment in Flipkart has given it the key leadership in the e-commerce segment in India which is expected to grow rapidly in the years ahead.<blockquote>沃尔玛(WMT)在其国际市场上有着非常令人兴奋的增长前景，尤其是在印度，预计到2025年，该市场将超过加拿大，成为第二大国际细分市场，仅次于领先的墨西哥。此外，该公司对Flipkart的精明投资使其在印度电子商务领域占据了关键的领导地位，预计该领域将在未来几年快速增长。</blockquote> Setting the Stage for International Expansion<blockquote>为国际扩张奠定基础</blockquote> Walmart has grand ambitions on the international stage. After the completion of the&nbsp;divestiture of Asda and Seiyu&nbsp;last quarter, the company has set its sights on driving its international growth in the faster growing markets. The company also discussed at length its international priorities and opportunities in two recent conferences (DBAccess, andBaird) on how to take its international business to the next level.<blockquote>沃尔玛在国际舞台上雄心勃勃。在上季度完成对Asda和Seiyu的剥离后，该公司已将目光投向在增长更快的市场推动其国际增长。该公司还在最近的两次会议（DBAccess和Baird）上详细讨论了如何将其国际业务提升到一个新水平的国际优先事项和机遇。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917a0bddc47fb6071bfd416976abe840\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">WMT net sales worldwide by division. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>WMT按部门划分的全球净销售额。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Walmart’s international sales accounted for about 21.9% of FY 21 revenue. As we could observe from above, WMT’s international business as a whole has been largely stagnant in recent years even though its U.S. operations saw relatively stable and consistent growth. The company’s exit from Seiyu [Japan] and Asda [UK] in order to reallocate capital to its higher growth regions, notably in India and China, is an important step towards aligning its growth priorities and rejuvenating its international business segment. In fact, Walmart had even received pretty nasty press on its operations in Japan, asNikkei Asiaremarked: “Walmart's foreign flops can be attributed largely to tone-deaf management, which failed to take into account local business customs, dietary habits and labor relations, among other glaring oversights.” Notwithstanding the sensational allegations made by the Nikkei, I think WMT has actually performed admirably in its international business as it’s aprofitable segmentfor the company that posted an operating margin of 4.4% in Q1’22, as well as 3% in FY 21, 2.8% in FY 20, and 4% in FY 19, respectively.<blockquote>沃尔玛的国际销售额约占21财年收入的21.9%。正如我们从上面可以观察到的，尽管WMT的美国业务出现了相对稳定和持续的增长，但其国际业务近年来整体上基本上停滞不前。该公司退出西友（日本）和阿斯达（英国），以便将资本重新分配到增长较高的地区，特别是印度和中国，这是调整其增长重点和振兴其国际业务部门的重要一步。事实上，沃尔玛在日本的业务甚至受到了相当恶劣的媒体，《日经亚洲》评论道：“沃尔玛在国外的失败很大程度上可以归因于五音不全的管理层，他们没有考虑到当地的商业习俗、饮食习惯和劳资关系等。”其他明显的疏忽。”尽管《日经指数》提出了耸人听闻的指控，但我认为WMT在其国际业务方面实际上表现令人钦佩，因为该公司在22年第一季度的营业利润率为4.4%，21财年为3%，20财年为2.8%，19财年为4%。</blockquote> Ask Amazon How Hard It Is To Make Money Overseas<blockquote>问问亚马逊在海外赚钱有多难</blockquote> In order to understand how difficult it is to make money operating a retail business in international markets with a footprint as large as WMT, investors need to look no further than Amazon (AMZN), notwithstanding its focus on the e-commerce segment.<blockquote>为了了解在像WMT这样规模庞大的国际市场上经营零售业务赚钱有多困难，投资者只需看看亚马逊(AMZN)就知道了，尽管它专注于电子商务领域。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f155f05bf035f522fff05f7c5802740\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"525\">AMZN annual Operating income by segment. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>AMZN按部门划分的年度营业收入。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa70bfe2b8a379252d91f48a78becd52\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">AMZN quarterly operating income by segment. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>AMZN按部门划分的季度营业收入。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> As we could observe from the 2 charts above, AMZN’s international segment only recently started to turn an operating profit in Q2’20 after experiencing losses over the last 6 years, even though the North America segment continued to do well. It’s a good reminder to investors that WMT knows how to manage its large international footprint well and it’s really very difficult to run an operation as geographically diverse and huge as Walmart’s and be profitable at the same time, giving the company an extremely wide moat.<blockquote>正如我们从上面的两张图表中可以观察到的，尽管北美部门继续表现良好，但AMZN的国际部门在经历了过去6年的亏损后，最近才在20年第二季度开始扭亏为盈。这是对投资者的一个很好的提醒，WMT知道如何很好地管理其庞大的国际足迹，而且要经营像沃尔玛这样地域多元化和规模庞大的业务，同时实现盈利，从而为该公司提供极其宽阔的护城河，确实非常困难。</blockquote> India and China Expected to Lead Growth<blockquote>印度和中国有望引领增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de7690e94d33c1fa7d9a17901080007\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"515\">WMT projected net sales by country. Data Source: Edge by Ascential<blockquote>WMT按国家/地区预测净销售额。数据来源：Edge by Ascential</blockquote> Although Mexico is still expected to remain as International’s most important revenue driver by 2025, India and China are expected to lead the growth, with India expected to be the company’s second largest international market by 2025.<blockquote>尽管墨西哥预计到2025年仍将是国际最重要的收入驱动力，但印度和中国预计将引领增长，预计到2025年印度将成为该公司的第二大国际市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb39da945b2a8ef4d8bc56b06bf945b7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">WMT projected revenue CAGR by country. Data Source: Edge by Ascential<blockquote>WMT按国家/地区预测的CAGR收入。数据来源：Edge by Ascential</blockquote> India’s 5Y CAGR of 10.4% is expected to outperform the rest of its international peers, followed by China in second place with a 5Y CAGR of 6.6%. The rest of its international markets are also expected to grow relatively fast, including the leader Mexico (5Y CAGR: 4.1%).<blockquote>印度的5年复合年增长率为10.4%，预计将优于其他国际同行，其次是中国，5年复合年增长率为6.6%。其其他国际市场预计也将相对快速增长，包括领先的墨西哥（5年复合年增长率：4.1%）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9a2cee8cc3738a2a615afe99152dd5f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"738\">WMT projected revenue mean consensus, and YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>WMT预计收入意味着共识和同比增长。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> If we consider the company’s overall expected revenue growth in the next few years, investors should now be able to appreciate the importance of WMT’s international markets to drive the company’s topline and therefore managing the growth of its international segment well would provide the company a highly significant lever to drive results over time.<blockquote>如果我们考虑公司未来几年的整体预期收入增长，投资者现在应该能够认识到WMT国际市场对于推动公司营收的重要性，因此管理好其国际部门的增长将为公司提供一个非常重要的杠杆随着时间的推移推动结果。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6a11308afe3976fe54e67f76f8f596\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\">Leading retail chain operators in China. Data Source: China Chain Store &amp; Franchise Association<blockquote>中国领先的零售连锁运营商。数据来源：中国连锁经营协会</blockquote> Although WMT’s leadership in the U.S. is undisputed, it may not be the same in China. The competitive landscape in China is strongly dominated by Suning Commerce Group, and WMT’s China operations was actually ranked 7th in this survey. Therefore, there is a tremendous amount of sales potential for WMT to make up in order to move up the ranks among China’s retail leaders.<blockquote>尽管WMT在美国的领导地位无可争议，但在中国可能就不一样了。中国的竞争格局由苏宁商业集团强势主导，WMT的中国业务在本次调查中实际上排名第7。因此，WMT有巨大的销售潜力可以弥补，以跻身中国零售领导者的行列。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0338751a0a7661f724cfa43c4acb5c58\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Total population in the U.S. and India. Data Source: IMF<blockquote>美国和印度的总人口。数据来源：IMF</blockquote> In the market where it is expected to lead the company's growth: India, this is where the excitement for WMT’s international business really begins. India’s population is expected to grow from 1.324B in 2016 to 1.443B by 2025, which would represent a CAGR of 0.96%, faster than the U.S. population CAGR of 0.47%, that is twice as fast, despite having a population size that’s already 4x larger to start with.<blockquote>在有望引领公司增长的市场：印度，这是WMT国际业务真正令人兴奋的地方。印度人口预计将从2016年的13.24亿增长到2025年的14.43亿，这将代表0.96%的CAGR，比美国0.47%的人口CAGR快，是美国的两倍，尽管印度的人口规模已经是美国的4倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0dcd47a074df2156c16ea1db021061\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Market size of e-commerce industry across India. Data Source: India Brand Equity Foundation; Various sources (Media sources); BCG; Bain &amp; Company; Morgan Stanley<blockquote>印度电子商务行业的市场规模。数据来源：印度品牌资产基金会；各种来源（媒体来源）；卡介苗；贝恩公司；摩根士丹利</blockquote> India’s e-commerce industry (WMT’s main channel in India) is expected to grow from just $14B in 2014 to $200B by 2027, which would represent a whopping CAGR of 22.7%, an incredible growth rate. More importantly, WMT is an e-commerce leader in India (though Flipkart), as Flipkart had a&nbsp;31.9% market share&nbsp;as of Oct 20 according to Forrester Research, just ahead of its fierce rival, Amazon India, who had a 31.2% market share. Therefore, WMT looks very well positioned to compete strongly in India as the leader of a rapidly expanding e-commerce market.<blockquote>印度的电子商务行业（WMT在印度的主要渠道）预计将从2014年的140亿美元增长到2027年的2000亿美元，这将代表22.7%的惊人CAGR，这是一个令人难以置信的增长率。更重要的是，WMT是印度电子商务的领导者（尽管是Flipkart），根据Forrester Research的数据，截至10月20日，Flipkart拥有31.9%的市场份额，仅领先于其强劲的竞争对手亚马逊印度，后者拥有31.2%的市场份额。因此，作为快速扩张的电子商务市场的领导者，WMT看起来非常有能力在印度进行强有力的竞争。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c611e761c64537eac8600067ff46dce9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Flipkart revenue. Data Source: Flipkart; Business Standard<blockquote>Flipkart收入。数据来源：Flipkart；商业标准</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7fd83dbbe32e4623cfb108479191db5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Flipkart revenue YoY growth. Data Source: Flipkart; Business Standard<blockquote>Flipkart收入同比增长。数据来源：Flipkart；商业标准</blockquote> As we could observe from above, Flipkart’s FY 20 revenue of 346B rupees (equivalent to about $4.72B) has barely scratched the surface considering the market size of India’s e-commerce industry that was worth $64B in 2020. Even though the revenue growth of 12% YoY was an egregious deceleration from the previous year’s 42% YoY growth, the company has managed to reduce its net loss from 38.35B rupees to 31.5B rupees (see below), an improvement of 17% YoY. It would thus be important for investors to continue monitoring the health of its growth trend moving forward to evaluate whether there is a persistent deceleration that needs to be addressed by the company.<blockquote>正如我们从上面可以观察到的，考虑到2020年印度电子商务行业价值64B美元的市场规模，Flipkart 20财年的收入为346B卢比（相当于约47.2亿美元），这只是触及了表面。尽管12%的收入同比增长比上一年42%的同比增长大幅放缓，但该公司已成功将净亏损从38.35 B卢比减少至31.5 B卢比（见下文），同比增长17%。因此，投资者必须继续监测其未来增长趋势的健康状况，以评估公司是否存在需要解决的持续减速问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84abc8cadd99bda1af002f8ef6a231ad\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\">P/L of Flipkart. Data Source: Flipkart; Business Standard<blockquote>Flipkart的损益。数据来源：Flipkart；商业标准</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efdcc73d770fedc1353ca09154e30a26\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Unified Payment Interface [UPI] usage across India. Data Source: The Financial Express (India); NPCI<blockquote>统一支付接口[UPI]在印度的使用。数据来源：《金融快报》（印度）；NPCI</blockquote> Meanwhile, the company’s UPI platform PhonePe is also the leader in UPI usage across India. UPI has become the dominant payments infrastructure across India with a&nbsp;73% share&nbsp;of all digital transactions volume as of Feb 21. However, due to the 30% transactions restriction cap placed on all third-party payment apps that include PhonePe by the authority [NPCI] on the leaders, PhonePe and Google Pay would need to meet a 2-year deadline to bring down their transactions share to within the 30% cap. In addition, WhatsApp Pay is also expected to play an increasingly important role in this rapidly expanding market and compete against Google Pay and PhonePe. Notwithstanding the cap placed by NPCI, the digital payments market in India is expected to grow from 2,153 trillion rupees in 2020 to 7,092 trillion rupees by 2025 (see below), which would represent a CAGR of 26.9%, thus giving us a high level of confidence that there is ample room for all the major competitors to grow. Walmart definitely looks incredibly well-positioned in the India e-commerce market, where its e-commerce growth is still very much in its infancy.<blockquote>与此同时，该公司的UPI平台PhonePe也是印度UPI使用的领导者。截至2月21日，UPI已成为印度占主导地位的支付基础设施，占所有数字交易量的73%。然而，由于NPCI对包括PhonePe在内的所有第三方支付应用程序设置了30%的交易限制上限，PhonePe和Google Pay需要在2年内将其交易份额降至30%上限以内。此外，WhatsApp Pay也有望在这个快速扩张的市场中扮演越来越重要的角色，与Google Pay和PhonePe展开竞争。尽管NPCI设定了上限，但印度的数字支付市场预计将从2020年的2153万亿卢比增长到2025年的7092万亿卢比（见下文），这将代表26.9%的CAGR，因此我们高度相信所有主要竞争对手都有足够的增长空间。沃尔玛在印度电子商务市场看起来无疑处于非常有利的地位，其电子商务增长仍处于起步阶段。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6273488f83e60a8d2c316d9296e7ad27\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Digital payments market value across India. Data Source: Redseer<blockquote>印度的数字支付市场价值。数据来源：Redseer</blockquote> Considering Walmart's Valuations<blockquote>考虑到沃尔玛的估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2e1c5a07707bd380a3dab086be2be5c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\">EV / EBITDA Metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>EV/EBITDA指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537bf606c23aaa34ab1130ab1186f6d5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"694\">EV / EBIT metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>EV/EBIT指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> When we consider WMT’s FCF and EBIT relative valuations using both EV / EBITDA - CapEx (as a proxy for FCF) and EV / EBIT, WMT is currently valued near the higher end of both valuations range (EV / LTM EBITDA: 14.7x, EV / LTM EBIT: 14.9x) over the last 5 years. In fact, when we consider the company forward valuations, we could observe that the market seems to have priced in quite a bit of optimism into WMT’s future EBIT and FCF growth in which the company is expected to execute well moving forward.<blockquote>当我们使用EV/EBITDA-资本支出（作为FCF的代理）和EV/EBIT来考虑WMT的FCF和EBIT相对估值时，WMT目前的估值接近两个估值范围的高端（EV/LTM EBITDA：14.7倍，EV/LTM EBIT：14.9倍）过去5年。事实上，当我们考虑该公司的远期估值时，我们可以观察到市场似乎已经对WMT未来的息税前利润和自由现金流增长抱有相当大的乐观情绪，预计该公司未来将表现良好。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38ba544168ae18b243f52b6359262acb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"884\">EV / EBIT valuation metrics.<blockquote>EV/EBIT估值指标。</blockquote> Therefore, in order to have a basis on whether WMT’s forward valuations are also in line with what we expect from other companies, it would be useful to conduct an EV / EBIT comparison across a set of benchmark companies for us to have a reasonable basis to value WMT. We also observed that WMT’s EV / EBIT metrics have not been excessive when compared against this set of benchmark companies.<blockquote>因此，为了确定WMT的远期估值是否也符合我们对其他公司的预期，对一组基准公司进行EV/EBIT比较将是有用的，以便我们有一个合理的基础来评估WMT的价值。我们还观察到，与这组基准公司相比，WMT的EV/EBIT指标并不过分。</blockquote> Using a blend of their EV / LTM EBIT metric and their EV / Fwd EBIT metric, we arrived at a fair value of $156.42 at the midpoint of the fair value range, representing a potential upside of 11.7% from 15 Jun’s closing price of $140.<blockquote>综合使用EV/LTM EBIT指标和EV/Fwd EBIT指标，我们得出公允价值范围中点的公允价值为156.42美元，较6月15日收盘价140美元有11.7%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote> Price Action and Technical Analysis<blockquote>价格行为和技术分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeab97d13426aa4d6f580b82aaf6bf4b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"784\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote> WMT is a strong stock that has always been well supported along its long-term uptrend over the last 3 years. The 50W moving average has always acted as its key dynamic support level, including during the 2018 bear market, and the 2020 COVID-19 bear market, demonstrating the confidence of the market in this customary market leader. The support level at $127 also looks like an extremely strong support level that attracted strong buying interest during the retracement in Feb - Mar 21 and investors should consider this as a \"Buy more\" entry point if the price retraces to that level in the future. Currently, the stock is right at the 50W MA support level again, and I think at the current price level of $140, it still represents an optimal technical buy entry. Investors should however avoid buying near $154 in the near term as it’s expected to be a near term resistance level.<blockquote>WMT是一只强劲的股票，在过去3年的长期上升趋势中一直受到良好支撑。50W均线一直是其关键的动态支撑位，包括在2018年熊市期间，以及2020年COVID-19熊市期间，显示了市场对这一传统市场领导者的信心。127美元的支撑位看起来也是一个极其强劲的支撑位，在2月至3月21日的回撤期间吸引了强烈的买盘兴趣，如果价格在未来回撤至该水平，投资者应将其视为“买入更多”的切入点。目前，该股再次处于50W MA支撑位，我认为在当前140美元的价格水平下，它仍然代表着最佳的技术买入入场点。然而，投资者短期内应避免在154美元附近买入，因为预计这将是近期阻力位。</blockquote> Wrapping it all up<blockquote>把这一切包起来</blockquote> Walmart’s international strategies, especially in India are looking very exciting and is expected to be the company's main international growth driver. Although its international segment is still a relatively small segment of the company’s overall revenue, it’s expected to lead the group’s growth in the foreseeable future and the market definitely thinks so as well as WMT is expected to be valued at higher multiples than what was observed historically. Investors should therefore take advantage of WMT’s current price weakness to add to this fantastic stock in view of its attractive valuation right now.<blockquote>沃尔玛的国际战略，尤其是在印度的战略，看起来非常令人兴奋，预计将成为该公司主要的国际增长动力。尽管其国际业务在公司总收入中仍占相对较小的一部分，但预计在可预见的未来，它将引领集团的增长，市场也肯定这么认为，而且WMT的估值预计将高于历史观察到的倍数。因此，鉴于WMT目前的估值极具吸引力，投资者应该利用WMT目前的价格疲软来增持这只出色的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart: Buy On Weakness For Its Exciting International Growth Prospects<blockquote>沃尔玛：因其令人兴奋的国际增长前景而逢低买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart: Buy On Weakness For Its Exciting International Growth Prospects<blockquote>沃尔玛：因其令人兴奋的国际增长前景而逢低买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-17 15:38\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Walmart’s international segment is expected to lead the company’s revenue growth in the years ahead.</li> <li>The company’s leadership through Flipkart in the rapidly growing India market is expected to be a key competitive advantage as it scales up to compete against Amazon India.</li> <li>At the current price, Walmart is not expensive, and offers an attractive entry point for investors to partake in its international growth drivers.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af09545cba715476092d754f8df38e8a\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\">Wolterk/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>沃尔玛的国际部门预计将在未来几年引领公司的收入增长。</li><li>该公司通过Flipkart在快速增长的印度市场的领导地位预计将成为其扩大规模以与亚马逊印度竞争的关键竞争优势。</li><li>以目前的价格来看，沃尔玛并不昂贵，并为投资者参与其国际增长动力提供了一个有吸引力的切入点。</li></ul>Wolterk/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Walmart (WMT) has very exciting growth prospects in its international markets, especially in India where the market is expected to overtake Canada as the second largest international market segment, behind the leader Mexico by 2025. In addition, the company’s astute investment in Flipkart has given it the key leadership in the e-commerce segment in India which is expected to grow rapidly in the years ahead.<blockquote>沃尔玛(WMT)在其国际市场上有着非常令人兴奋的增长前景，尤其是在印度，预计到2025年，该市场将超过加拿大，成为第二大国际细分市场，仅次于领先的墨西哥。此外，该公司对Flipkart的精明投资使其在印度电子商务领域占据了关键的领导地位，预计该领域将在未来几年快速增长。</blockquote> Setting the Stage for International Expansion<blockquote>为国际扩张奠定基础</blockquote> Walmart has grand ambitions on the international stage. After the completion of the&nbsp;divestiture of Asda and Seiyu&nbsp;last quarter, the company has set its sights on driving its international growth in the faster growing markets. The company also discussed at length its international priorities and opportunities in two recent conferences (DBAccess, andBaird) on how to take its international business to the next level.<blockquote>沃尔玛在国际舞台上雄心勃勃。在上季度完成对Asda和Seiyu的剥离后，该公司已将目光投向在增长更快的市场推动其国际增长。该公司还在最近的两次会议（DBAccess和Baird）上详细讨论了如何将其国际业务提升到一个新水平的国际优先事项和机遇。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917a0bddc47fb6071bfd416976abe840\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">WMT net sales worldwide by division. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>WMT按部门划分的全球净销售额。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> Walmart’s international sales accounted for about 21.9% of FY 21 revenue. As we could observe from above, WMT’s international business as a whole has been largely stagnant in recent years even though its U.S. operations saw relatively stable and consistent growth. The company’s exit from Seiyu [Japan] and Asda [UK] in order to reallocate capital to its higher growth regions, notably in India and China, is an important step towards aligning its growth priorities and rejuvenating its international business segment. In fact, Walmart had even received pretty nasty press on its operations in Japan, asNikkei Asiaremarked: “Walmart's foreign flops can be attributed largely to tone-deaf management, which failed to take into account local business customs, dietary habits and labor relations, among other glaring oversights.” Notwithstanding the sensational allegations made by the Nikkei, I think WMT has actually performed admirably in its international business as it’s aprofitable segmentfor the company that posted an operating margin of 4.4% in Q1’22, as well as 3% in FY 21, 2.8% in FY 20, and 4% in FY 19, respectively.<blockquote>沃尔玛的国际销售额约占21财年收入的21.9%。正如我们从上面可以观察到的，尽管WMT的美国业务出现了相对稳定和持续的增长，但其国际业务近年来整体上基本上停滞不前。该公司退出西友（日本）和阿斯达（英国），以便将资本重新分配到增长较高的地区，特别是印度和中国，这是调整其增长重点和振兴其国际业务部门的重要一步。事实上，沃尔玛在日本的业务甚至受到了相当恶劣的媒体，《日经亚洲》评论道：“沃尔玛在国外的失败很大程度上可以归因于五音不全的管理层，他们没有考虑到当地的商业习俗、饮食习惯和劳资关系等。”其他明显的疏忽。”尽管《日经指数》提出了耸人听闻的指控，但我认为WMT在其国际业务方面实际上表现令人钦佩，因为该公司在22年第一季度的营业利润率为4.4%，21财年为3%，20财年为2.8%，19财年为4%。</blockquote> Ask Amazon How Hard It Is To Make Money Overseas<blockquote>问问亚马逊在海外赚钱有多难</blockquote> In order to understand how difficult it is to make money operating a retail business in international markets with a footprint as large as WMT, investors need to look no further than Amazon (AMZN), notwithstanding its focus on the e-commerce segment.<blockquote>为了了解在像WMT这样规模庞大的国际市场上经营零售业务赚钱有多困难，投资者只需看看亚马逊(AMZN)就知道了，尽管它专注于电子商务领域。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f155f05bf035f522fff05f7c5802740\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"525\">AMZN annual Operating income by segment. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>AMZN按部门划分的年度营业收入。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa70bfe2b8a379252d91f48a78becd52\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">AMZN quarterly operating income by segment. Data Source: Company Filings<blockquote>AMZN按部门划分的季度营业收入。数据来源：公司备案</blockquote> As we could observe from the 2 charts above, AMZN’s international segment only recently started to turn an operating profit in Q2’20 after experiencing losses over the last 6 years, even though the North America segment continued to do well. It’s a good reminder to investors that WMT knows how to manage its large international footprint well and it’s really very difficult to run an operation as geographically diverse and huge as Walmart’s and be profitable at the same time, giving the company an extremely wide moat.<blockquote>正如我们从上面的两张图表中可以观察到的，尽管北美部门继续表现良好，但AMZN的国际部门在经历了过去6年的亏损后，最近才在20年第二季度开始扭亏为盈。这是对投资者的一个很好的提醒，WMT知道如何很好地管理其庞大的国际足迹，而且要经营像沃尔玛这样地域多元化和规模庞大的业务，同时实现盈利，从而为该公司提供极其宽阔的护城河，确实非常困难。</blockquote> India and China Expected to Lead Growth<blockquote>印度和中国有望引领增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5de7690e94d33c1fa7d9a17901080007\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"515\">WMT projected net sales by country. Data Source: Edge by Ascential<blockquote>WMT按国家/地区预测净销售额。数据来源：Edge by Ascential</blockquote> Although Mexico is still expected to remain as International’s most important revenue driver by 2025, India and China are expected to lead the growth, with India expected to be the company’s second largest international market by 2025.<blockquote>尽管墨西哥预计到2025年仍将是国际最重要的收入驱动力，但印度和中国预计将引领增长，预计到2025年印度将成为该公司的第二大国际市场。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb39da945b2a8ef4d8bc56b06bf945b7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">WMT projected revenue CAGR by country. Data Source: Edge by Ascential<blockquote>WMT按国家/地区预测的CAGR收入。数据来源：Edge by Ascential</blockquote> India’s 5Y CAGR of 10.4% is expected to outperform the rest of its international peers, followed by China in second place with a 5Y CAGR of 6.6%. The rest of its international markets are also expected to grow relatively fast, including the leader Mexico (5Y CAGR: 4.1%).<blockquote>印度的5年复合年增长率为10.4%，预计将优于其他国际同行，其次是中国，5年复合年增长率为6.6%。其其他国际市场预计也将相对快速增长，包括领先的墨西哥（5年复合年增长率：4.1%）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9a2cee8cc3738a2a615afe99152dd5f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"738\">WMT projected revenue mean consensus, and YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>WMT预计收入意味着共识和同比增长。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> If we consider the company’s overall expected revenue growth in the next few years, investors should now be able to appreciate the importance of WMT’s international markets to drive the company’s topline and therefore managing the growth of its international segment well would provide the company a highly significant lever to drive results over time.<blockquote>如果我们考虑公司未来几年的整体预期收入增长，投资者现在应该能够认识到WMT国际市场对于推动公司营收的重要性，因此管理好其国际部门的增长将为公司提供一个非常重要的杠杆随着时间的推移推动结果。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6a11308afe3976fe54e67f76f8f596\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\">Leading retail chain operators in China. Data Source: China Chain Store &amp; Franchise Association<blockquote>中国领先的零售连锁运营商。数据来源：中国连锁经营协会</blockquote> Although WMT’s leadership in the U.S. is undisputed, it may not be the same in China. The competitive landscape in China is strongly dominated by Suning Commerce Group, and WMT’s China operations was actually ranked 7th in this survey. Therefore, there is a tremendous amount of sales potential for WMT to make up in order to move up the ranks among China’s retail leaders.<blockquote>尽管WMT在美国的领导地位无可争议，但在中国可能就不一样了。中国的竞争格局由苏宁商业集团强势主导，WMT的中国业务在本次调查中实际上排名第7。因此，WMT有巨大的销售潜力可以弥补，以跻身中国零售领导者的行列。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0338751a0a7661f724cfa43c4acb5c58\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Total population in the U.S. and India. Data Source: IMF<blockquote>美国和印度的总人口。数据来源：IMF</blockquote> In the market where it is expected to lead the company's growth: India, this is where the excitement for WMT’s international business really begins. India’s population is expected to grow from 1.324B in 2016 to 1.443B by 2025, which would represent a CAGR of 0.96%, faster than the U.S. population CAGR of 0.47%, that is twice as fast, despite having a population size that’s already 4x larger to start with.<blockquote>在有望引领公司增长的市场：印度，这是WMT国际业务真正令人兴奋的地方。印度人口预计将从2016年的13.24亿增长到2025年的14.43亿，这将代表0.96%的CAGR，比美国0.47%的人口CAGR快，是美国的两倍，尽管印度的人口规模已经是美国的4倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0dcd47a074df2156c16ea1db021061\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Market size of e-commerce industry across India. Data Source: India Brand Equity Foundation; Various sources (Media sources); BCG; Bain &amp; Company; Morgan Stanley<blockquote>印度电子商务行业的市场规模。数据来源：印度品牌资产基金会；各种来源（媒体来源）；卡介苗；贝恩公司；摩根士丹利</blockquote> India’s e-commerce industry (WMT’s main channel in India) is expected to grow from just $14B in 2014 to $200B by 2027, which would represent a whopping CAGR of 22.7%, an incredible growth rate. More importantly, WMT is an e-commerce leader in India (though Flipkart), as Flipkart had a&nbsp;31.9% market share&nbsp;as of Oct 20 according to Forrester Research, just ahead of its fierce rival, Amazon India, who had a 31.2% market share. Therefore, WMT looks very well positioned to compete strongly in India as the leader of a rapidly expanding e-commerce market.<blockquote>印度的电子商务行业（WMT在印度的主要渠道）预计将从2014年的140亿美元增长到2027年的2000亿美元，这将代表22.7%的惊人CAGR，这是一个令人难以置信的增长率。更重要的是，WMT是印度电子商务的领导者（尽管是Flipkart），根据Forrester Research的数据，截至10月20日，Flipkart拥有31.9%的市场份额，仅领先于其强劲的竞争对手亚马逊印度，后者拥有31.2%的市场份额。因此，作为快速扩张的电子商务市场的领导者，WMT看起来非常有能力在印度进行强有力的竞争。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c611e761c64537eac8600067ff46dce9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Flipkart revenue. Data Source: Flipkart; Business Standard<blockquote>Flipkart收入。数据来源：Flipkart；商业标准</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7fd83dbbe32e4623cfb108479191db5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Flipkart revenue YoY growth. Data Source: Flipkart; Business Standard<blockquote>Flipkart收入同比增长。数据来源：Flipkart；商业标准</blockquote> As we could observe from above, Flipkart’s FY 20 revenue of 346B rupees (equivalent to about $4.72B) has barely scratched the surface considering the market size of India’s e-commerce industry that was worth $64B in 2020. Even though the revenue growth of 12% YoY was an egregious deceleration from the previous year’s 42% YoY growth, the company has managed to reduce its net loss from 38.35B rupees to 31.5B rupees (see below), an improvement of 17% YoY. It would thus be important for investors to continue monitoring the health of its growth trend moving forward to evaluate whether there is a persistent deceleration that needs to be addressed by the company.<blockquote>正如我们从上面可以观察到的，考虑到2020年印度电子商务行业价值64B美元的市场规模，Flipkart 20财年的收入为346B卢比（相当于约47.2亿美元），这只是触及了表面。尽管12%的收入同比增长比上一年42%的同比增长大幅放缓，但该公司已成功将净亏损从38.35 B卢比减少至31.5 B卢比（见下文），同比增长17%。因此，投资者必须继续监测其未来增长趋势的健康状况，以评估公司是否存在需要解决的持续减速问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84abc8cadd99bda1af002f8ef6a231ad\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"475\">P/L of Flipkart. Data Source: Flipkart; Business Standard<blockquote>Flipkart的损益。数据来源：Flipkart；商业标准</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efdcc73d770fedc1353ca09154e30a26\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Unified Payment Interface [UPI] usage across India. Data Source: The Financial Express (India); NPCI<blockquote>统一支付接口[UPI]在印度的使用。数据来源：《金融快报》（印度）；NPCI</blockquote> Meanwhile, the company’s UPI platform PhonePe is also the leader in UPI usage across India. UPI has become the dominant payments infrastructure across India with a&nbsp;73% share&nbsp;of all digital transactions volume as of Feb 21. However, due to the 30% transactions restriction cap placed on all third-party payment apps that include PhonePe by the authority [NPCI] on the leaders, PhonePe and Google Pay would need to meet a 2-year deadline to bring down their transactions share to within the 30% cap. In addition, WhatsApp Pay is also expected to play an increasingly important role in this rapidly expanding market and compete against Google Pay and PhonePe. Notwithstanding the cap placed by NPCI, the digital payments market in India is expected to grow from 2,153 trillion rupees in 2020 to 7,092 trillion rupees by 2025 (see below), which would represent a CAGR of 26.9%, thus giving us a high level of confidence that there is ample room for all the major competitors to grow. Walmart definitely looks incredibly well-positioned in the India e-commerce market, where its e-commerce growth is still very much in its infancy.<blockquote>与此同时，该公司的UPI平台PhonePe也是印度UPI使用的领导者。截至2月21日，UPI已成为印度占主导地位的支付基础设施，占所有数字交易量的73%。然而，由于NPCI对包括PhonePe在内的所有第三方支付应用程序设置了30%的交易限制上限，PhonePe和Google Pay需要在2年内将其交易份额降至30%上限以内。此外，WhatsApp Pay也有望在这个快速扩张的市场中扮演越来越重要的角色，与Google Pay和PhonePe展开竞争。尽管NPCI设定了上限，但印度的数字支付市场预计将从2020年的2153万亿卢比增长到2025年的7092万亿卢比（见下文），这将代表26.9%的CAGR，因此我们高度相信所有主要竞争对手都有足够的增长空间。沃尔玛在印度电子商务市场看起来无疑处于非常有利的地位，其电子商务增长仍处于起步阶段。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6273488f83e60a8d2c316d9296e7ad27\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\">Digital payments market value across India. Data Source: Redseer<blockquote>印度的数字支付市场价值。数据来源：Redseer</blockquote> Considering Walmart's Valuations<blockquote>考虑到沃尔玛的估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2e1c5a07707bd380a3dab086be2be5c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"701\">EV / EBITDA Metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>EV/EBITDA指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537bf606c23aaa34ab1130ab1186f6d5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"694\">EV / EBIT metrics. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>EV/EBIT指标。数据来源：标普资本智商</blockquote> When we consider WMT’s FCF and EBIT relative valuations using both EV / EBITDA - CapEx (as a proxy for FCF) and EV / EBIT, WMT is currently valued near the higher end of both valuations range (EV / LTM EBITDA: 14.7x, EV / LTM EBIT: 14.9x) over the last 5 years. In fact, when we consider the company forward valuations, we could observe that the market seems to have priced in quite a bit of optimism into WMT’s future EBIT and FCF growth in which the company is expected to execute well moving forward.<blockquote>当我们使用EV/EBITDA-资本支出（作为FCF的代理）和EV/EBIT来考虑WMT的FCF和EBIT相对估值时，WMT目前的估值接近两个估值范围的高端（EV/LTM EBITDA：14.7倍，EV/LTM EBIT：14.9倍）过去5年。事实上，当我们考虑该公司的远期估值时，我们可以观察到市场似乎已经对WMT未来的息税前利润和自由现金流增长抱有相当大的乐观情绪，预计该公司未来将表现良好。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38ba544168ae18b243f52b6359262acb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"884\">EV / EBIT valuation metrics.<blockquote>EV/EBIT估值指标。</blockquote> Therefore, in order to have a basis on whether WMT’s forward valuations are also in line with what we expect from other companies, it would be useful to conduct an EV / EBIT comparison across a set of benchmark companies for us to have a reasonable basis to value WMT. We also observed that WMT’s EV / EBIT metrics have not been excessive when compared against this set of benchmark companies.<blockquote>因此，为了确定WMT的远期估值是否也符合我们对其他公司的预期，对一组基准公司进行EV/EBIT比较将是有用的，以便我们有一个合理的基础来评估WMT的价值。我们还观察到，与这组基准公司相比，WMT的EV/EBIT指标并不过分。</blockquote> Using a blend of their EV / LTM EBIT metric and their EV / Fwd EBIT metric, we arrived at a fair value of $156.42 at the midpoint of the fair value range, representing a potential upside of 11.7% from 15 Jun’s closing price of $140.<blockquote>综合使用EV/LTM EBIT指标和EV/Fwd EBIT指标，我们得出公允价值范围中点的公允价值为156.42美元，较6月15日收盘价140美元有11.7%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote> Price Action and Technical Analysis<blockquote>价格行为和技术分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeab97d13426aa4d6f580b82aaf6bf4b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"784\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView</blockquote> WMT is a strong stock that has always been well supported along its long-term uptrend over the last 3 years. The 50W moving average has always acted as its key dynamic support level, including during the 2018 bear market, and the 2020 COVID-19 bear market, demonstrating the confidence of the market in this customary market leader. The support level at $127 also looks like an extremely strong support level that attracted strong buying interest during the retracement in Feb - Mar 21 and investors should consider this as a \"Buy more\" entry point if the price retraces to that level in the future. Currently, the stock is right at the 50W MA support level again, and I think at the current price level of $140, it still represents an optimal technical buy entry. Investors should however avoid buying near $154 in the near term as it’s expected to be a near term resistance level.<blockquote>WMT是一只强劲的股票，在过去3年的长期上升趋势中一直受到良好支撑。50W均线一直是其关键的动态支撑位，包括在2018年熊市期间，以及2020年COVID-19熊市期间，显示了市场对这一传统市场领导者的信心。127美元的支撑位看起来也是一个极其强劲的支撑位，在2月至3月21日的回撤期间吸引了强烈的买盘兴趣，如果价格在未来回撤至该水平，投资者应将其视为“买入更多”的切入点。目前，该股再次处于50W MA支撑位，我认为在当前140美元的价格水平下，它仍然代表着最佳的技术买入入场点。然而，投资者短期内应避免在154美元附近买入，因为预计这将是近期阻力位。</blockquote> Wrapping it all up<blockquote>把这一切包起来</blockquote> Walmart’s international strategies, especially in India are looking very exciting and is expected to be the company's main international growth driver. Although its international segment is still a relatively small segment of the company’s overall revenue, it’s expected to lead the group’s growth in the foreseeable future and the market definitely thinks so as well as WMT is expected to be valued at higher multiples than what was observed historically. Investors should therefore take advantage of WMT’s current price weakness to add to this fantastic stock in view of its attractive valuation right now.<blockquote>沃尔玛的国际战略，尤其是在印度的战略，看起来非常令人兴奋，预计将成为该公司主要的国际增长动力。尽管其国际业务在公司总收入中仍占相对较小的一部分，但预计在可预见的未来，它将引领集团的增长，市场也肯定这么认为，而且WMT的估值预计将高于历史观察到的倍数。因此，鉴于WMT目前的估值极具吸引力，投资者应该利用WMT目前的价格疲软来增持这只出色的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435090-walmart-stock-buy-for-international-growth-potential\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435090-walmart-stock-buy-for-international-growth-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138373077","content_text":"Summary\n\nWalmart’s international segment is expected to lead the company’s revenue growth in the years ahead.\nThe company’s leadership through Flipkart in the rapidly growing India market is expected to be a key competitive advantage as it scales up to compete against Amazon India.\nAt the current price, Walmart is not expensive, and offers an attractive entry point for investors to partake in its international growth drivers.\n\nWolterk/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nWalmart (WMT) has very exciting growth prospects in its international markets, especially in India where the market is expected to overtake Canada as the second largest international market segment, behind the leader Mexico by 2025. In addition, the company’s astute investment in Flipkart has given it the key leadership in the e-commerce segment in India which is expected to grow rapidly in the years ahead.\nSetting the Stage for International Expansion\nWalmart has grand ambitions on the international stage. After the completion of the divestiture of Asda and Seiyu last quarter, the company has set its sights on driving its international growth in the faster growing markets. The company also discussed at length its international priorities and opportunities in two recent conferences (DBAccess, andBaird) on how to take its international business to the next level.\nWMT net sales worldwide by division. Data Source: Company Filings\nWalmart’s international sales accounted for about 21.9% of FY 21 revenue. As we could observe from above, WMT’s international business as a whole has been largely stagnant in recent years even though its U.S. operations saw relatively stable and consistent growth. The company’s exit from Seiyu [Japan] and Asda [UK] in order to reallocate capital to its higher growth regions, notably in India and China, is an important step towards aligning its growth priorities and rejuvenating its international business segment. In fact, Walmart had even received pretty nasty press on its operations in Japan, asNikkei Asiaremarked: “Walmart's foreign flops can be attributed largely to tone-deaf management, which failed to take into account local business customs, dietary habits and labor relations, among other glaring oversights.” Notwithstanding the sensational allegations made by the Nikkei, I think WMT has actually performed admirably in its international business as it’s aprofitable segmentfor the company that posted an operating margin of 4.4% in Q1’22, as well as 3% in FY 21, 2.8% in FY 20, and 4% in FY 19, respectively.\nAsk Amazon How Hard It Is To Make Money Overseas\nIn order to understand how difficult it is to make money operating a retail business in international markets with a footprint as large as WMT, investors need to look no further than Amazon (AMZN), notwithstanding its focus on the e-commerce segment.\nAMZN annual Operating income by segment. Data Source: Company Filings\nAMZN quarterly operating income by segment. Data Source: Company Filings\nAs we could observe from the 2 charts above, AMZN’s international segment only recently started to turn an operating profit in Q2’20 after experiencing losses over the last 6 years, even though the North America segment continued to do well. It’s a good reminder to investors that WMT knows how to manage its large international footprint well and it’s really very difficult to run an operation as geographically diverse and huge as Walmart’s and be profitable at the same time, giving the company an extremely wide moat.\nIndia and China Expected to Lead Growth\nWMT projected net sales by country. Data Source: Edge by Ascential\nAlthough Mexico is still expected to remain as International’s most important revenue driver by 2025, India and China are expected to lead the growth, with India expected to be the company’s second largest international market by 2025.\nWMT projected revenue CAGR by country. Data Source: Edge by Ascential\nIndia’s 5Y CAGR of 10.4% is expected to outperform the rest of its international peers, followed by China in second place with a 5Y CAGR of 6.6%. The rest of its international markets are also expected to grow relatively fast, including the leader Mexico (5Y CAGR: 4.1%).\nWMT projected revenue mean consensus, and YoY growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nIf we consider the company’s overall expected revenue growth in the next few years, investors should now be able to appreciate the importance of WMT’s international markets to drive the company’s topline and therefore managing the growth of its international segment well would provide the company a highly significant lever to drive results over time.\nLeading retail chain operators in China. Data Source: China Chain Store & Franchise Association\nAlthough WMT’s leadership in the U.S. is undisputed, it may not be the same in China. The competitive landscape in China is strongly dominated by Suning Commerce Group, and WMT’s China operations was actually ranked 7th in this survey. Therefore, there is a tremendous amount of sales potential for WMT to make up in order to move up the ranks among China’s retail leaders.\nTotal population in the U.S. and India. Data Source: IMF\nIn the market where it is expected to lead the company's growth: India, this is where the excitement for WMT’s international business really begins. India’s population is expected to grow from 1.324B in 2016 to 1.443B by 2025, which would represent a CAGR of 0.96%, faster than the U.S. population CAGR of 0.47%, that is twice as fast, despite having a population size that’s already 4x larger to start with.\nMarket size of e-commerce industry across India. Data Source: India Brand Equity Foundation; Various sources (Media sources); BCG; Bain & Company; Morgan Stanley\nIndia’s e-commerce industry (WMT’s main channel in India) is expected to grow from just $14B in 2014 to $200B by 2027, which would represent a whopping CAGR of 22.7%, an incredible growth rate. More importantly, WMT is an e-commerce leader in India (though Flipkart), as Flipkart had a 31.9% market share as of Oct 20 according to Forrester Research, just ahead of its fierce rival, Amazon India, who had a 31.2% market share. Therefore, WMT looks very well positioned to compete strongly in India as the leader of a rapidly expanding e-commerce market.\nFlipkart revenue. Data Source: Flipkart; Business Standard\nFlipkart revenue YoY growth. Data Source: Flipkart; Business Standard\nAs we could observe from above, Flipkart’s FY 20 revenue of 346B rupees (equivalent to about $4.72B) has barely scratched the surface considering the market size of India’s e-commerce industry that was worth $64B in 2020. Even though the revenue growth of 12% YoY was an egregious deceleration from the previous year’s 42% YoY growth, the company has managed to reduce its net loss from 38.35B rupees to 31.5B rupees (see below), an improvement of 17% YoY. It would thus be important for investors to continue monitoring the health of its growth trend moving forward to evaluate whether there is a persistent deceleration that needs to be addressed by the company.\nP/L of Flipkart. Data Source: Flipkart; Business Standard\nUnified Payment Interface [UPI] usage across India. Data Source: The Financial Express (India); NPCI\nMeanwhile, the company’s UPI platform PhonePe is also the leader in UPI usage across India. UPI has become the dominant payments infrastructure across India with a 73% share of all digital transactions volume as of Feb 21. However, due to the 30% transactions restriction cap placed on all third-party payment apps that include PhonePe by the authority [NPCI] on the leaders, PhonePe and Google Pay would need to meet a 2-year deadline to bring down their transactions share to within the 30% cap. In addition, WhatsApp Pay is also expected to play an increasingly important role in this rapidly expanding market and compete against Google Pay and PhonePe. Notwithstanding the cap placed by NPCI, the digital payments market in India is expected to grow from 2,153 trillion rupees in 2020 to 7,092 trillion rupees by 2025 (see below), which would represent a CAGR of 26.9%, thus giving us a high level of confidence that there is ample room for all the major competitors to grow. Walmart definitely looks incredibly well-positioned in the India e-commerce market, where its e-commerce growth is still very much in its infancy.\nDigital payments market value across India. Data Source: Redseer\nConsidering Walmart's Valuations\nEV / EBITDA Metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEV / EBIT metrics. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider WMT’s FCF and EBIT relative valuations using both EV / EBITDA - CapEx (as a proxy for FCF) and EV / EBIT, WMT is currently valued near the higher end of both valuations range (EV / LTM EBITDA: 14.7x, EV / LTM EBIT: 14.9x) over the last 5 years. In fact, when we consider the company forward valuations, we could observe that the market seems to have priced in quite a bit of optimism into WMT’s future EBIT and FCF growth in which the company is expected to execute well moving forward.\nEV / EBIT valuation metrics.\nTherefore, in order to have a basis on whether WMT’s forward valuations are also in line with what we expect from other companies, it would be useful to conduct an EV / EBIT comparison across a set of benchmark companies for us to have a reasonable basis to value WMT. We also observed that WMT’s EV / EBIT metrics have not been excessive when compared against this set of benchmark companies.\nUsing a blend of their EV / LTM EBIT metric and their EV / Fwd EBIT metric, we arrived at a fair value of $156.42 at the midpoint of the fair value range, representing a potential upside of 11.7% from 15 Jun’s closing price of $140.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nWMT is a strong stock that has always been well supported along its long-term uptrend over the last 3 years. The 50W moving average has always acted as its key dynamic support level, including during the 2018 bear market, and the 2020 COVID-19 bear market, demonstrating the confidence of the market in this customary market leader. The support level at $127 also looks like an extremely strong support level that attracted strong buying interest during the retracement in Feb - Mar 21 and investors should consider this as a \"Buy more\" entry point if the price retraces to that level in the future. Currently, the stock is right at the 50W MA support level again, and I think at the current price level of $140, it still represents an optimal technical buy entry. Investors should however avoid buying near $154 in the near term as it’s expected to be a near term resistance level.\nWrapping it all up\nWalmart’s international strategies, especially in India are looking very exciting and is expected to be the company's main international growth driver. Although its international segment is still a relatively small segment of the company’s overall revenue, it’s expected to lead the group’s growth in the foreseeable future and the market definitely thinks so as well as WMT is expected to be valued at higher multiples than what was observed historically. Investors should therefore take advantage of WMT’s current price weakness to add to this fantastic stock in view of its attractive valuation right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1162,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}