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2021-06-17

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Fisker: One Of The Best Pure-Play EV Bets<blockquote>菲斯克：最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一</blockquote>

Summary Fisker is on track to deliver its first vehicle by November 2022 and in line with the previ

Fisker: One Of The Best Pure-Play EV Bets<blockquote>菲斯克：最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一</blockquote>

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Therefore, we believe now was the time to revisit the stock and revise our rating. After revisiting the stock, we continue to remain bullish as the mispricing persists and valuation fails to incorporate the long-term growth potential of the stock. However, valuation offers favorable risk-reward metrics to enter the stock but does not offer the same extraordinary returns with low risk as before, therefore, we would now reduce the rating from \"very bullish\" to \"bullish\".<blockquote>自上个月发表上一篇关于菲斯克的文章（菲斯克：高风险，非常高回报）以来，菲斯克(FSR)已上涨超过65%，评级为“非常看涨”。因此，我们认为现在是重新审视该股并修改我们评级的时候了。在重新审视该股后，我们继续保持看涨，因为错误定价持续存在，估值未能体现该股的长期增长潜力。然而，估值为进入该股提供了有利的风险回报指标，但并没有像以前那样提供与低风险相同的非凡回报，因此，我们现在将评级从“非常看涨”下调至“看涨”。</blockquote> We like Fisker's visionary leadership, competitive product, asset-light business model, and solid partnerships. This article focuses more on updates after our previous coverage, risk reward metrics at current valuation, and strengths that can help expand product portfolio. If you haven’t read our previous article, we highly recommend having a quick look to gain a better understanding of the overall business and strengths.<blockquote>我们喜欢菲斯克富有远见的领导力、有竞争力的产品、轻资产商业模式和稳固的合作伙伴关系。本文更多地关注我们之前报道后的更新、当前估值下的风险回报指标以及有助于扩大产品组合的优势。如果您还没有阅读我们之前的文章，我们强烈建议您快速浏览一下，以便更好地了解整体业务和优势。</blockquote> Business Summary<blockquote>业务总结</blockquote> Fisker Inc. is a California-based EV company focused on designing and developing electric vehicles. Its first vehicle, Fisker Ocean, an electric SUV, is expected to be ready for sale by November 2022. The manufacturing process of Fisker Ocean is outsourced to Magna (MGA) that has an annual capacity to produce 240,000 units. The company went public in October 2020 through a reverse merger with a SPAC. (Source)<blockquote>Fisker Inc.是一家总部位于加利福尼亚州的电动汽车公司，专注于设计和开发电动汽车。其首款电动SUV Fisker Ocean预计将于2022年11月上市销售。Fisker Ocean的制造过程外包给麦格纳(MGA)，该公司的年产能为240,000台。该公司于2020年10月通过与SPAC的反向合并上市。（资料来源）</blockquote> What changed since our previous coverage on Fisker?<blockquote>自我们之前对菲斯克的报道以来发生了什么变化？</blockquote> The company signed an MOU with Foxconn (OTC:FXCOF) in February 2021, which later got converted into an agreementin May 2021. As per the agreement, Foxconn and Fisker will co-develop and manufacture an electric vehicle that would hit the market by Q4 2023 and will be sold under the Fisker brand name in North America, Europe, China, and India. The expected capacity of the vehicle would be 250,000 annually worldwide. The vehicle would be priced under $30,000 and would be a five-seater.<blockquote>该公司于2021年2月与富士康（场外交易代码：FXCOF）签署了谅解备忘录，后来于2021年5月转化为协议。根据协议，富士康和菲斯克将共同开发和制造一款电动汽车，该汽车将于2023年第四季度上市，并将以菲斯克品牌在北美、欧洲、中国和印度销售。该车辆的预计全球年产能为25万辆。该车的售价将低于30,000美元，是一款五座车。</blockquote> In the recent&nbsp;stockholders’ annual meeting, Fisker reassured that it was on course to deliver its Fisker Ocean in November 2022. It also reassured that it has sourced majority of parts for its first vehicle, and the cost structure is in line with expectations laid out by the company last year. The company announced its goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027. It also announced plans to exhibit its Fisker Ocean vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November 2021.<blockquote>在最近的股东年会上，Fisker保证将于2022年11月交付Fisker Ocean。该公司还保证，其第一辆汽车的大部分零部件已经采购，成本结构符合该公司去年的预期。该公司宣布了到2027年生产完全气候中和汽车的目标。该公司还宣布计划在2021年11月的洛杉矶车展上展示其Fisker Ocean车辆。</blockquote> Vision to make the world’s most sustainable vehicles<blockquote>打造世界上最可持续发展车辆的愿景</blockquote> The company was founded with a vision to build the most sustainable vehicles in the world. So far, the company has been on track with its progress. Fisker Ocean has a solar roof that besides delivering a higher range to the vehicle, also generates a free of cost and greenest form of energy source. The company also uses recycled material within its car. In line with its vision, the company set a goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027 with net-zero greenhouse gases over its lifetime.<blockquote>该公司成立的愿景是制造世界上最可持续的汽车。到目前为止，该公司的进展一直在正轨上。Fisker Ocean拥有太阳能车顶，除了为车辆提供更高的行驶里程外，还可以产生免费且最环保的能源形式。该公司还在其汽车中使用回收材料。根据其愿景，该公司设定了到2027年生产完全气候中和的汽车的目标，在其生命周期内温室气体净零。</blockquote> Well-positioned to expand vehicle portfolio<blockquote>有能力扩大车辆组合</blockquote> Two major partnerships with international contract manufacturers (Foxconn and Magna) uniquely positioned Fisker to grow its vehicle portfolio and reach its goal of four vehicles by 2025. The partnerships enable it to make vehicle design and development the center of attention for the company, have an asset-light business model, build confidence among top suppliers, and enhance negotiation capabilities with suppliers.<blockquote>与国际合同制造商（富士康和麦格纳）的两个主要合作伙伴关系使菲斯克能够扩大其汽车产品组合并实现到2025年生产四辆汽车的目标。这些合作伙伴关系使其能够使车辆设计和开发成为公司关注的中心，拥有轻资产的商业模式，在顶级供应商中建立信心，并增强与供应商的谈判能力。</blockquote> In collaboration with Fisker, Magna will also&nbsp;develop a new ADAS feature&nbsp;that includes digital-imaging radar technology. The technology would be coming with Fisker Ocean initially and can be levered to all the upcoming models of Fisker and will play a material role in differentiating Fisker from other automotive manufacturers. The company is also expected to have one of the fastest development times for a vehicle of 2.5 years which can be more than 4 years for most of the automotive OEMs.<blockquote>麦格纳还将与菲斯克合作开发一项新的ADAS功能，其中包括数字成像雷达技术。该技术最初将与Fisker Ocean一起提供，并可用于Fisker即将推出的所有车型，并将在Fisker与其他汽车制造商区分开来方面发挥重要作用。该公司还有望成为汽车开发时间最快的公司之一，为2.5年，而对于大多数汽车原始设备制造商来说，这可能超过4年。</blockquote> We believe that the company is well-positioned to grow its portfolio by leveraging its existing technology, partnerships, and unique asset-light business model. It outsources multiple areas where it believes that differentiation is not important such as manufacturing process, fleet management services, lease financing, other related services, etc. This helps the company focus primarily on product innovation and development, unlike other companies with their hands entirely filled.<blockquote>我们相信，该公司有能力通过利用其现有技术、合作伙伴关系和独特的轻资产商业模式来扩大其投资组合。它将其认为差异化并不重要的多个领域外包，如制造流程、车队管理服务、租赁融资、其他相关服务等。这有助于公司主要专注于产品创新和开发，不像其他公司完全忙得不可开交。</blockquote> More upside potential<blockquote>更大的上涨潜力</blockquote> As we discussed in a previous report, the Foxconn deal alone can generate $3.75Bn+ annually in revenue (after 3 to 5 years). Similarly, based on conservative estimates of 50,000 Fisker Ocean vehicles at an average price of $50K, Fisker can generate $2.5Bn annually starting 2023 from Fisker Ocean. Both combined are still greater than the current market capitalization of $5.5Bn despite a 65%+ price return in the last one month.<blockquote>正如我们在之前的报告中所讨论的，仅富士康交易每年就可以产生37.5亿美元以上的收入（3到5年后）。同样，根据平均价格为5万美元的50,000辆Fisker Ocean车辆的保守估计，从2023年开始，Fisker每年可以从Fisker Ocean赚取25亿美元的收入。尽管过去一个月的价格回报率超过65%，但两者合计仍高于目前55亿美元的市值。</blockquote> Furthermore, the company can deliver more than 20% growth in the medium-term (after 2025) even after the above two revenue sources are realized. This is because the company can continue to grow by adding more vehicles to its portfolio with the help of an asset-light business model, visionary leadership, and strong partnership.<blockquote>此外，即使在上述两个收入来源实现后，该公司在中期（2025年后）仍可实现20%以上的增长。这是因为该公司可以在轻资产商业模式、富有远见的领导力和强大的合作伙伴关系的帮助下，通过在其投资组合中添加更多车辆来继续增长。</blockquote> The stock can justify its valuation based on estimates of barely two vehicles with a forward P/S ratio (FY3) of less than 1 as per our estimates discussed above. Announcement of the other two vehicles' development as per the company's defined 2025 goal would exponentially boost the company’s outlook and shareholder’s returns.<blockquote>根据我们上面讨论的估计，仅有两辆远期市盈率（2013财年）低于1的汽车的估计，该股的估值是合理的。根据公司确定的2025年目标宣布另外两款汽车的开发将成倍提高公司的前景和股东回报。</blockquote> Risk to Thesis<blockquote>论文风险</blockquote> Rising short interest<blockquote>空头利息上升</blockquote> Short interest has gone up significantly in recent months. Increased pressure from short sellers can push the stock downwards. Besides that, Fisker can also become a victim of short-sellers' attacks due to its lack of revenue and salable product. Short-sellers might publish short-seller reports citing unproven concerns and push the stock downwards for personal gains. This can lead to tarnishing the firm's reputation, which can reduce the ability to secure additional financing, credibility among suppliers, disrupt existing partnerships, as well as impact demand for its vehicles.<blockquote>近几个月来，空头兴趣大幅上升。来自卖空者的压力增加可能会推动股票下跌。除此之外，菲斯克还可能因缺乏收入和可销售产品而成为卖空者攻击的受害者。卖空者可能会以未经证实的担忧为由发布卖空报告，并为了个人利益而压低股票。这可能会损害公司的声誉，从而降低获得额外融资的能力、供应商的信誉、破坏现有的合作伙伴关系，并影响对其车辆的需求。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c3ae9e44bb7e2d5ebf034087945deef\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"355\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> The stock continues to offer immense upside potential at the current valuation based on its growth trajectory. Asset-light business model ensures that equity dilution would be insignificant as capital requirements are lower than other EV startups like Workhorse (WKHS) and Lordstown (RIDE) (that are at the risk of facing liquidity crisis when they enter mass production). Moreover, Fisker has zero balance sheet debt and strong liquidity position of $985Mn to support R&amp;D, CapEx, and Marketing costs. Fisker is still one of the best pure-play EV bets currently in the market despite the recent boom in stock price. We expect the stock to double in the next 2-3 years.<blockquote>根据其增长轨迹，该股在当前估值下继续提供巨大的上涨潜力。轻资产商业模式确保股权稀释可以忽略不计，因为资本要求低于Workhorse(WKHS)和Lordstown(RIDE)等其他电动汽车初创公司（这些公司在进入量产时面临流动性危机的风险）。此外，Fisker的资产负债表债务为零，流动性状况强劲，为9.85亿美元，可支持研发、资本支出和营销成本。尽管最近股价上涨，菲斯克仍然是目前市场上最好的纯电动汽车投资之一。我们预计该股在未来2-3年内将翻一番。</blockquote> The stock would also see increased investments and recognition in the near term asit will be added to Russel 3000 index, which can lead to upside potential for stockholders.<blockquote>该股在短期内也将获得更多的投资和认可，因为它将被添加到Russel 3000指数中，这可能会给股东带来上涨潜力。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fisker: One Of The Best Pure-Play EV Bets<blockquote>菲斯克：最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFisker: One Of The Best Pure-Play EV Bets<blockquote>菲斯克：最好的纯电动汽车赌注之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-17 14:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Fisker is on track to deliver its first vehicle by November 2022 and in line with the previously laid down cost structure.</li> <li>The finalized Foxconn deal of mass-producing an electric vehicle justifies the current valuation.</li> <li>The announcement of a climate-neutral vehicle goal by 2027 strengthens the long-term outlook.</li> <li>Fisker has a robust balance sheet position to support significant investments in product development and innovation.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9723e0a794926349a61ee7329622c779\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"571\">Chesky_W/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>菲斯克有望在2022年11月之前交付第一辆汽车，并符合之前制定的成本结构。</li><li>富士康量产电动汽车的最终交易证明了当前估值的合理性。</li><li>到2027年实现气候中和汽车目标的宣布强化了长期前景。</li><li>菲斯克拥有稳健的资产负债表状况，可以支持对产品开发和创新的重大投资。</li></ul>Chesky_W/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Fisker (FSR) is up more than 65% since the publication of our previous article on Fisker last month (Fisker: High Risk, Very High Return) with a “very bullish” rating. Therefore, we believe now was the time to revisit the stock and revise our rating. After revisiting the stock, we continue to remain bullish as the mispricing persists and valuation fails to incorporate the long-term growth potential of the stock. However, valuation offers favorable risk-reward metrics to enter the stock but does not offer the same extraordinary returns with low risk as before, therefore, we would now reduce the rating from \"very bullish\" to \"bullish\".<blockquote>自上个月发表上一篇关于菲斯克的文章（菲斯克：高风险，非常高回报）以来，菲斯克(FSR)已上涨超过65%，评级为“非常看涨”。因此，我们认为现在是重新审视该股并修改我们评级的时候了。在重新审视该股后，我们继续保持看涨，因为错误定价持续存在，估值未能体现该股的长期增长潜力。然而，估值为进入该股提供了有利的风险回报指标，但并没有像以前那样提供与低风险相同的非凡回报，因此，我们现在将评级从“非常看涨”下调至“看涨”。</blockquote> We like Fisker's visionary leadership, competitive product, asset-light business model, and solid partnerships. This article focuses more on updates after our previous coverage, risk reward metrics at current valuation, and strengths that can help expand product portfolio. If you haven’t read our previous article, we highly recommend having a quick look to gain a better understanding of the overall business and strengths.<blockquote>我们喜欢菲斯克富有远见的领导力、有竞争力的产品、轻资产商业模式和稳固的合作伙伴关系。本文更多地关注我们之前报道后的更新、当前估值下的风险回报指标以及有助于扩大产品组合的优势。如果您还没有阅读我们之前的文章，我们强烈建议您快速浏览一下，以便更好地了解整体业务和优势。</blockquote> Business Summary<blockquote>业务总结</blockquote> Fisker Inc. is a California-based EV company focused on designing and developing electric vehicles. Its first vehicle, Fisker Ocean, an electric SUV, is expected to be ready for sale by November 2022. The manufacturing process of Fisker Ocean is outsourced to Magna (MGA) that has an annual capacity to produce 240,000 units. The company went public in October 2020 through a reverse merger with a SPAC. (Source)<blockquote>Fisker Inc.是一家总部位于加利福尼亚州的电动汽车公司，专注于设计和开发电动汽车。其首款电动SUV Fisker Ocean预计将于2022年11月上市销售。Fisker Ocean的制造过程外包给麦格纳(MGA)，该公司的年产能为240,000台。该公司于2020年10月通过与SPAC的反向合并上市。（资料来源）</blockquote> What changed since our previous coverage on Fisker?<blockquote>自我们之前对菲斯克的报道以来发生了什么变化？</blockquote> The company signed an MOU with Foxconn (OTC:FXCOF) in February 2021, which later got converted into an agreementin May 2021. As per the agreement, Foxconn and Fisker will co-develop and manufacture an electric vehicle that would hit the market by Q4 2023 and will be sold under the Fisker brand name in North America, Europe, China, and India. The expected capacity of the vehicle would be 250,000 annually worldwide. The vehicle would be priced under $30,000 and would be a five-seater.<blockquote>该公司于2021年2月与富士康（场外交易代码：FXCOF）签署了谅解备忘录，后来于2021年5月转化为协议。根据协议，富士康和菲斯克将共同开发和制造一款电动汽车，该汽车将于2023年第四季度上市，并将以菲斯克品牌在北美、欧洲、中国和印度销售。该车辆的预计全球年产能为25万辆。该车的售价将低于30,000美元，是一款五座车。</blockquote> In the recent&nbsp;stockholders’ annual meeting, Fisker reassured that it was on course to deliver its Fisker Ocean in November 2022. It also reassured that it has sourced majority of parts for its first vehicle, and the cost structure is in line with expectations laid out by the company last year. The company announced its goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027. It also announced plans to exhibit its Fisker Ocean vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November 2021.<blockquote>在最近的股东年会上，Fisker保证将于2022年11月交付Fisker Ocean。该公司还保证，其第一辆汽车的大部分零部件已经采购，成本结构符合该公司去年的预期。该公司宣布了到2027年生产完全气候中和汽车的目标。该公司还宣布计划在2021年11月的洛杉矶车展上展示其Fisker Ocean车辆。</blockquote> Vision to make the world’s most sustainable vehicles<blockquote>打造世界上最可持续发展车辆的愿景</blockquote> The company was founded with a vision to build the most sustainable vehicles in the world. So far, the company has been on track with its progress. Fisker Ocean has a solar roof that besides delivering a higher range to the vehicle, also generates a free of cost and greenest form of energy source. The company also uses recycled material within its car. In line with its vision, the company set a goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027 with net-zero greenhouse gases over its lifetime.<blockquote>该公司成立的愿景是制造世界上最可持续的汽车。到目前为止，该公司的进展一直在正轨上。Fisker Ocean拥有太阳能车顶，除了为车辆提供更高的行驶里程外，还可以产生免费且最环保的能源形式。该公司还在其汽车中使用回收材料。根据其愿景，该公司设定了到2027年生产完全气候中和的汽车的目标，在其生命周期内温室气体净零。</blockquote> Well-positioned to expand vehicle portfolio<blockquote>有能力扩大车辆组合</blockquote> Two major partnerships with international contract manufacturers (Foxconn and Magna) uniquely positioned Fisker to grow its vehicle portfolio and reach its goal of four vehicles by 2025. The partnerships enable it to make vehicle design and development the center of attention for the company, have an asset-light business model, build confidence among top suppliers, and enhance negotiation capabilities with suppliers.<blockquote>与国际合同制造商（富士康和麦格纳）的两个主要合作伙伴关系使菲斯克能够扩大其汽车产品组合并实现到2025年生产四辆汽车的目标。这些合作伙伴关系使其能够使车辆设计和开发成为公司关注的中心，拥有轻资产的商业模式，在顶级供应商中建立信心，并增强与供应商的谈判能力。</blockquote> In collaboration with Fisker, Magna will also&nbsp;develop a new ADAS feature&nbsp;that includes digital-imaging radar technology. The technology would be coming with Fisker Ocean initially and can be levered to all the upcoming models of Fisker and will play a material role in differentiating Fisker from other automotive manufacturers. The company is also expected to have one of the fastest development times for a vehicle of 2.5 years which can be more than 4 years for most of the automotive OEMs.<blockquote>麦格纳还将与菲斯克合作开发一项新的ADAS功能，其中包括数字成像雷达技术。该技术最初将与Fisker Ocean一起提供，并可用于Fisker即将推出的所有车型，并将在Fisker与其他汽车制造商区分开来方面发挥重要作用。该公司还有望成为汽车开发时间最快的公司之一，为2.5年，而对于大多数汽车原始设备制造商来说，这可能超过4年。</blockquote> We believe that the company is well-positioned to grow its portfolio by leveraging its existing technology, partnerships, and unique asset-light business model. It outsources multiple areas where it believes that differentiation is not important such as manufacturing process, fleet management services, lease financing, other related services, etc. This helps the company focus primarily on product innovation and development, unlike other companies with their hands entirely filled.<blockquote>我们相信，该公司有能力通过利用其现有技术、合作伙伴关系和独特的轻资产商业模式来扩大其投资组合。它将其认为差异化并不重要的多个领域外包，如制造流程、车队管理服务、租赁融资、其他相关服务等。这有助于公司主要专注于产品创新和开发，不像其他公司完全忙得不可开交。</blockquote> More upside potential<blockquote>更大的上涨潜力</blockquote> As we discussed in a previous report, the Foxconn deal alone can generate $3.75Bn+ annually in revenue (after 3 to 5 years). Similarly, based on conservative estimates of 50,000 Fisker Ocean vehicles at an average price of $50K, Fisker can generate $2.5Bn annually starting 2023 from Fisker Ocean. Both combined are still greater than the current market capitalization of $5.5Bn despite a 65%+ price return in the last one month.<blockquote>正如我们在之前的报告中所讨论的，仅富士康交易每年就可以产生37.5亿美元以上的收入（3到5年后）。同样，根据平均价格为5万美元的50,000辆Fisker Ocean车辆的保守估计，从2023年开始，Fisker每年可以从Fisker Ocean赚取25亿美元的收入。尽管过去一个月的价格回报率超过65%，但两者合计仍高于目前55亿美元的市值。</blockquote> Furthermore, the company can deliver more than 20% growth in the medium-term (after 2025) even after the above two revenue sources are realized. This is because the company can continue to grow by adding more vehicles to its portfolio with the help of an asset-light business model, visionary leadership, and strong partnership.<blockquote>此外，即使在上述两个收入来源实现后，该公司在中期（2025年后）仍可实现20%以上的增长。这是因为该公司可以在轻资产商业模式、富有远见的领导力和强大的合作伙伴关系的帮助下，通过在其投资组合中添加更多车辆来继续增长。</blockquote> The stock can justify its valuation based on estimates of barely two vehicles with a forward P/S ratio (FY3) of less than 1 as per our estimates discussed above. Announcement of the other two vehicles' development as per the company's defined 2025 goal would exponentially boost the company’s outlook and shareholder’s returns.<blockquote>根据我们上面讨论的估计，仅有两辆远期市盈率（2013财年）低于1的汽车的估计，该股的估值是合理的。根据公司确定的2025年目标宣布另外两款汽车的开发将成倍提高公司的前景和股东回报。</blockquote> Risk to Thesis<blockquote>论文风险</blockquote> Rising short interest<blockquote>空头利息上升</blockquote> Short interest has gone up significantly in recent months. Increased pressure from short sellers can push the stock downwards. Besides that, Fisker can also become a victim of short-sellers' attacks due to its lack of revenue and salable product. Short-sellers might publish short-seller reports citing unproven concerns and push the stock downwards for personal gains. This can lead to tarnishing the firm's reputation, which can reduce the ability to secure additional financing, credibility among suppliers, disrupt existing partnerships, as well as impact demand for its vehicles.<blockquote>近几个月来，空头兴趣大幅上升。来自卖空者的压力增加可能会推动股票下跌。除此之外，菲斯克还可能因缺乏收入和可销售产品而成为卖空者攻击的受害者。卖空者可能会以未经证实的担忧为由发布卖空报告，并为了个人利益而压低股票。这可能会损害公司的声誉，从而降低获得额外融资的能力、供应商的信誉、破坏现有的合作伙伴关系，并影响对其车辆的需求。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c3ae9e44bb7e2d5ebf034087945deef\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"355\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> The stock continues to offer immense upside potential at the current valuation based on its growth trajectory. Asset-light business model ensures that equity dilution would be insignificant as capital requirements are lower than other EV startups like Workhorse (WKHS) and Lordstown (RIDE) (that are at the risk of facing liquidity crisis when they enter mass production). Moreover, Fisker has zero balance sheet debt and strong liquidity position of $985Mn to support R&amp;D, CapEx, and Marketing costs. Fisker is still one of the best pure-play EV bets currently in the market despite the recent boom in stock price. We expect the stock to double in the next 2-3 years.<blockquote>根据其增长轨迹，该股在当前估值下继续提供巨大的上涨潜力。轻资产商业模式确保股权稀释可以忽略不计，因为资本要求低于Workhorse(WKHS)和Lordstown(RIDE)等其他电动汽车初创公司（这些公司在进入量产时面临流动性危机的风险）。此外，Fisker的资产负债表债务为零，流动性状况强劲，为9.85亿美元，可支持研发、资本支出和营销成本。尽管最近股价上涨，菲斯克仍然是目前市场上最好的纯电动汽车投资之一。我们预计该股在未来2-3年内将翻一番。</blockquote> The stock would also see increased investments and recognition in the near term asit will be added to Russel 3000 index, which can lead to upside potential for stockholders.<blockquote>该股在短期内也将获得更多的投资和认可，因为它将被添加到Russel 3000指数中，这可能会给股东带来上涨潜力。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435102-fisker-stock-fsr-one-of-the-best-pure-play-ev-bets\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435102-fisker-stock-fsr-one-of-the-best-pure-play-ev-bets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184912441","content_text":"Summary\n\nFisker is on track to deliver its first vehicle by November 2022 and in line with the previously laid down cost structure.\nThe finalized Foxconn deal of mass-producing an electric vehicle justifies the current valuation.\nThe announcement of a climate-neutral vehicle goal by 2027 strengthens the long-term outlook.\nFisker has a robust balance sheet position to support significant investments in product development and innovation.\n\nChesky_W/iStock via Getty Images\nFisker (FSR) is up more than 65% since the publication of our previous article on Fisker last month (Fisker: High Risk, Very High Return) with a “very bullish” rating. Therefore, we believe now was the time to revisit the stock and revise our rating. After revisiting the stock, we continue to remain bullish as the mispricing persists and valuation fails to incorporate the long-term growth potential of the stock. However, valuation offers favorable risk-reward metrics to enter the stock but does not offer the same extraordinary returns with low risk as before, therefore, we would now reduce the rating from \"very bullish\" to \"bullish\".\nWe like Fisker's visionary leadership, competitive product, asset-light business model, and solid partnerships. This article focuses more on updates after our previous coverage, risk reward metrics at current valuation, and strengths that can help expand product portfolio. If you haven’t read our previous article, we highly recommend having a quick look to gain a better understanding of the overall business and strengths.\nBusiness Summary\nFisker Inc. is a California-based EV company focused on designing and developing electric vehicles. Its first vehicle, Fisker Ocean, an electric SUV, is expected to be ready for sale by November 2022. The manufacturing process of Fisker Ocean is outsourced to Magna (MGA) that has an annual capacity to produce 240,000 units. The company went public in October 2020 through a reverse merger with a SPAC. (Source)\nWhat changed since our previous coverage on Fisker?\nThe company signed an MOU with Foxconn (OTC:FXCOF) in February 2021, which later got converted into an agreementin May 2021. As per the agreement, Foxconn and Fisker will co-develop and manufacture an electric vehicle that would hit the market by Q4 2023 and will be sold under the Fisker brand name in North America, Europe, China, and India. The expected capacity of the vehicle would be 250,000 annually worldwide. The vehicle would be priced under $30,000 and would be a five-seater.\nIn the recent stockholders’ annual meeting, Fisker reassured that it was on course to deliver its Fisker Ocean in November 2022. It also reassured that it has sourced majority of parts for its first vehicle, and the cost structure is in line with expectations laid out by the company last year. The company announced its goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027. It also announced plans to exhibit its Fisker Ocean vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November 2021.\nVision to make the world’s most sustainable vehicles\nThe company was founded with a vision to build the most sustainable vehicles in the world. So far, the company has been on track with its progress. Fisker Ocean has a solar roof that besides delivering a higher range to the vehicle, also generates a free of cost and greenest form of energy source. The company also uses recycled material within its car. In line with its vision, the company set a goal to produce a fully climate-neutral vehicle by 2027 with net-zero greenhouse gases over its lifetime.\nWell-positioned to expand vehicle portfolio\nTwo major partnerships with international contract manufacturers (Foxconn and Magna) uniquely positioned Fisker to grow its vehicle portfolio and reach its goal of four vehicles by 2025. The partnerships enable it to make vehicle design and development the center of attention for the company, have an asset-light business model, build confidence among top suppliers, and enhance negotiation capabilities with suppliers.\nIn collaboration with Fisker, Magna will also develop a new ADAS feature that includes digital-imaging radar technology. The technology would be coming with Fisker Ocean initially and can be levered to all the upcoming models of Fisker and will play a material role in differentiating Fisker from other automotive manufacturers. The company is also expected to have one of the fastest development times for a vehicle of 2.5 years which can be more than 4 years for most of the automotive OEMs.\nWe believe that the company is well-positioned to grow its portfolio by leveraging its existing technology, partnerships, and unique asset-light business model. It outsources multiple areas where it believes that differentiation is not important such as manufacturing process, fleet management services, lease financing, other related services, etc. This helps the company focus primarily on product innovation and development, unlike other companies with their hands entirely filled.\nMore upside potential\nAs we discussed in a previous report, the Foxconn deal alone can generate $3.75Bn+ annually in revenue (after 3 to 5 years). Similarly, based on conservative estimates of 50,000 Fisker Ocean vehicles at an average price of $50K, Fisker can generate $2.5Bn annually starting 2023 from Fisker Ocean. Both combined are still greater than the current market capitalization of $5.5Bn despite a 65%+ price return in the last one month.\nFurthermore, the company can deliver more than 20% growth in the medium-term (after 2025) even after the above two revenue sources are realized. This is because the company can continue to grow by adding more vehicles to its portfolio with the help of an asset-light business model, visionary leadership, and strong partnership.\nThe stock can justify its valuation based on estimates of barely two vehicles with a forward P/S ratio (FY3) of less than 1 as per our estimates discussed above. Announcement of the other two vehicles' development as per the company's defined 2025 goal would exponentially boost the company’s outlook and shareholder’s returns.\nRisk to Thesis\nRising short interest\nShort interest has gone up significantly in recent months. Increased pressure from short sellers can push the stock downwards. Besides that, Fisker can also become a victim of short-sellers' attacks due to its lack of revenue and salable product. Short-sellers might publish short-seller reports citing unproven concerns and push the stock downwards for personal gains. This can lead to tarnishing the firm's reputation, which can reduce the ability to secure additional financing, credibility among suppliers, disrupt existing partnerships, as well as impact demand for its vehicles.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nThe stock continues to offer immense upside potential at the current valuation based on its growth trajectory. Asset-light business model ensures that equity dilution would be insignificant as capital requirements are lower than other EV startups like Workhorse (WKHS) and Lordstown (RIDE) (that are at the risk of facing liquidity crisis when they enter mass production). Moreover, Fisker has zero balance sheet debt and strong liquidity position of $985Mn to support R&D, CapEx, and Marketing costs. Fisker is still one of the best pure-play EV bets currently in the market despite the recent boom in stock price. We expect the stock to double in the next 2-3 years.\nThe stock would also see increased investments and recognition in the near term asit will be added to Russel 3000 index, which can lead to upside potential for stockholders.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3091,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}