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RicardoYedon
2021-06-24

ibm估值合理，并未低估

This Bull Is Far From Over: 3 Undervalued Blue Chip Dividend Buys

Summary The Fed jolted investors last week, before Powell backpedalled to reassure everyone. This s

This Bull Is Far From Over: 3 Undervalued Blue Chip Dividend Buys

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":128151065,"tweetId":"128151065","gmtCreate":1624507500757,"gmtModify":1624507500757,"author":{"id":3549001260752923,"authorId":3549001260752923,"authorIdStr":"3549001260752923","name":"RicardoYedon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2150a2a0804d778a4c71dbe181b3e7cd","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>ibm估值合理，并未低估</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>ibm估值合理，并未低估</body></html>","text":"ibm估值合理，并未低估","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128151065","repostId":1182818110,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182818110","pubTimestamp":1624504323,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182818110?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 11:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Bull Is Far From Over: 3 Undervalued Blue Chip Dividend Buys","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182818110","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Fed jolted investors last week, before Powell backpedalled to reassure everyone.\nThis s","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>The Fed jolted investors last week, before Powell backpedalled to reassure everyone.</li>\n <li>This shows just how difficult it will be for the Fed to actually rein in the economy.</li>\n <li>Some value names are once again on our \"buy list\". Here are three great ones.</li>\n</ul>\nIntroduction\nOn a recent Bloomberg video call, Ray Dalio suggested that the Fed will have a lot of trouble doing any rate hike without having significantly adverse effects on stocks.\nFollowing the Fed meeting last week, the news that rates might be raised in two years rather than three gave the markets a jolt, as the message was interpreted as hawkish by the investing community.\nThis caused Jerome Powell to backpedal, reminding everyone of his favorite word: \"transitory\". It was important that he once again reminded everyone that inflation would head back to 2%, and that nobody needs to worry.\nHe did cover his 6 however,stating:\n<blockquote>\n We have to be very humble about our ability to really try to draw a signal out of it [...] It might take some patience to really see what’s happening.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Larry Summers had adifferent take on it: \n I don't think the arithmetic is terribly difficult.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n You're looking at an average GDP gap deficit to potential GDP of 2%, and we're looking at a 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus. [...] The important question is whether there is 6 points of transitory inflation or 2 points of transitory inflation.\n</blockquote>\nThis idea is very important. Rather than asking whether inflation is transitory or not, we should be asking how much of it is transitory.\nAnd this is where the risk currently lies. While the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) performed a roundtrip from 4250 to 4250 with a 90 point drop in between, a lot of the more cyclical stocks took a hit which put them back in our \"Buy List\".\nOur take is that the Fed is realizing that it can't really increase rates without causing ruckus in markets.\nWhen you add this to the fact that they might not have any choice but to keep printing money to buy bonds as the supply of bonds might overshoot the demand of these from foreign countries who already hold lots of US debt and show limited interest in purchasing the debt at negative real interest rates. This is according to Ray Dalio in the same call with Larry Summers mentioned above.\nThe risk of monetary inflation is very real. The likelihood of demand to continue increasing dramatically as money stored in financial markets hits the economy is also very high.\nWhat we've learned in investing, is that investors are too eager to wrap up a trade and move on to the \"next thing\". Many times, this is shortsighted, as even when the train has left the station, there is a lot of track left ahead.\nThis is one of these situations.\nValuations in high quality blue chips which are sensitive to the economy reopening are still so far from pre-Covid levels.\nThe fact that they are taking a breather doesn't detract from their ultimate destination, which is a lot higher.\nIn this article I highlight 3 such stocks.\nPlus in the meantime you get to sleep well at night, knowing that they offer a great combination of dividend yield and dividend growth.\nHeads you win, tails you win more.\nIBM (IBM)\nWhile IBM has increased from our latest mention of it in a public article, when we were purchasing the stock at a 5%+ yield, it still hovers just below our target \"Buy Below\" price of $150, courtesy of a small pull back last week.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8abbcb78d88ebe9b82eb258078cd4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nDividend growth has come to a stand still, and while we loaded up lower, it is still a great opportunity.\nThe real value lies in the fact that investors are not pricing Krishna's operational excellence since taking over.\nIBM stunned investors with its Q1 results. Fellow author Virginia Backaitis states in her excellent articleanalyzing IBM'soperations:\n<blockquote>\n I like how Krishna is thinking, and I like former Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst at his side. They are making purchases that align with IBM's strategy which hasn't always been the case at the company. The product lines that IBM is selling off now are smart choices... and they have others left to sell (but maybe there isn't a buyer).\n</blockquote>\nThis value will likely be realized following the spin-off of the legacy business into an entity which will benamed kyndryl.\nInvestors will likely be left with a high yield managed infrastructure business, and a low yield high growth cloud stock.\nWhen it happens, we'll decide which of both we'll hold onto, but we're quite confident that the two pieces will be worth than the sum of the part.\nAnd while you wait for this, you still get paid 4.5% by a super safe Blue Chip stock, which has the pricing power to fight inflation.\nKeyCorp (KEY)\nOne thing the last round of stress tests showed, was that US banks are resilient, and well capitalized. Yet last week they took a hit after the fed meeting. This week stress tests will be released, and most large banks are expected to do really well.\nAfter that, dividend increases will come in July as banks are eager to start returning wealth to shareholders.\nKeycorp is no exception. For an analysis of KEY's earnings development you can read Sheen Bay Research'sarticleon the stock.\nWhere I differ from his opinion is on the question of the dividend. While he doesn't expect a dividend hike, I expect all major banks to compete in their dividend increases.\nWhat investors must not forget is that in 2008 KEY paid a dividend of $0.38 per quarter, or double the current dividend.\nSince then, the company has been slowly redeeming itself, increasing the dividend every year.\nThe pandemic restrictions stopped KEY in their tracks.\nA look at our MAD Chart shows how eager the bank was at returning capital to shareholders in the past 10 years. Each time the dividend increases, the inferred value ranges shown on the MAD chart goes up.\nIn the past 10 years the dividend grew at 20% per annum, the rate dropped to 15% in the past 5 years, hindered by 0 growth last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce032ffe59e73db2d6a1e09b4ff723b4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nI believe that a 10-15% increase is very likely this year.\nIn this event, KEY's current yield of 3.6% would effectively become a 4% yield.\nBut to get fantastic income from KEY, you don't even need that much growth.\nAt a 3.6% yield, if you can get 7.5% annual dividend growth you get a fantastic income opportunity.\nLet's look at a simulation.\nLet's suggest a $10K investment in KEY, with dividends reinvested and dividend growth of 7.5% per annum.\nIn year 10, you'd expect $1,004 of income, or 10% of your original investment, which is our threshold for a \"great\" income opportunity.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c24e62697eb475528e1b9f04686a12\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nIn our mind there is no way that KEY doesn't grow at this rate, which would suggest hitting its pre 2008 dividend in 10 years.\nAs such we believe KEY to be a great pick for income investors. As KEY's dividend growth is on the back of growth in earnings and tangible book value per share, there is no doubt in our mind that sooner or later, the price will catch up with the higher income. The fed stress tests might be the catalyst banks need to move higher.\nIn the meantime get paid to wait.\nChevron (CVX)\nChevron is another stock which is hovering just below our target \"Buy Below\" price.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100902df9308eeb7576e22704f403240\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nWe're surprised that the oil trade is taking so long to play out. In late 2015, early 2016, the recovery to historically normal yields was a lot faster.\nYet CVX still yields 5%, after proving its resilience, superior balance sheet and increasing the dividend by 4% this year, sustaining their history of higher dividends every year for the past three decades.\nConsider the following slide from their latestearnings call:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b49cefbd9ee55c299d2b3a03211a3b6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Earnings Call.\nAt $40 brent, the dividend is covered with a little extra debt. As the energy major with the best balance sheet, it can afford this. At $60 brent, there would be excess cash above $25bn, or enough to fund the dividend for two and a half years.\nBrent is currently above $70. The longer it stays above that level, the higher the likelihood that CVX will actually have the excess cash suggested in the latter scenario.\nBack in August last year we suggested that you'll belaughing your wayto the bank with CVX's 6% yield.\nSince then, CVX has marginally beaten the S&amp;P 500, but is far from over.\nIn the past 10 years CVX has yielded a median 3.86%. Its forward outlook is arguably better now than it was in much of the past decade, which had the energy market dealing with endemic oversupply. With underinvestment, the opposite is likely to be true in upcoming years.\nIf anything CVX should gravitate back towards its median yield which suggests further upside of 20%, much of which we expect will be realized in the latter half of 2021.\nIf you simulate a $10K investment in CVX assuming a 5% yield and 4% dividend growth, and reinvest dividends, then in year 10 you'd expect $1,154 in dividends of which $409 is expected to come from dividend reinvestments.\nThis equates to 11.54% of the initial investment, making CVX also an excellent income opportunity at current prices.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e365890df23b4af31565c7b170c14f\" tg-width=\"615\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nConclusion\nAs long term dividend investors, we're always eager to get top companies at great valuations. The fed meeting changed nothing to the reopening trade. If anything it gave them a warning that even the slightest hint of a rate increase would be interpreted as hawkish, which will likely have the consequence of them acting later than they should, which exacerbates the likelihood of the value trade continuing.\nDon't confuse the market taking a breather with the end of the trade.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Bull Is Far From Over: 3 Undervalued Blue Chip Dividend Buys</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Bull Is Far From Over: 3 Undervalued Blue Chip Dividend Buys\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 11:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436276-this-bull-is-far-from-over-3-undervalued-blue-chip-dividend-buys>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nThe Fed jolted investors last week, before Powell backpedalled to reassure everyone.\nThis shows just how difficult it will be for the Fed to actually rein in the economy.\nSome value names are...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436276-this-bull-is-far-from-over-3-undervalued-blue-chip-dividend-buys\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM","CVX":"雪佛龙","KEY":"KeyCorp"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436276-this-bull-is-far-from-over-3-undervalued-blue-chip-dividend-buys","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1182818110","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Fed jolted investors last week, before Powell backpedalled to reassure everyone.\nThis shows just how difficult it will be for the Fed to actually rein in the economy.\nSome value names are once again on our \"buy list\". Here are three great ones.\n\nIntroduction\nOn a recent Bloomberg video call, Ray Dalio suggested that the Fed will have a lot of trouble doing any rate hike without having significantly adverse effects on stocks.\nFollowing the Fed meeting last week, the news that rates might be raised in two years rather than three gave the markets a jolt, as the message was interpreted as hawkish by the investing community.\nThis caused Jerome Powell to backpedal, reminding everyone of his favorite word: \"transitory\". It was important that he once again reminded everyone that inflation would head back to 2%, and that nobody needs to worry.\nHe did cover his 6 however,stating:\n\nWe have to be very humble about our ability to really try to draw a signal out of it [...] It might take some patience to really see what’s happening.\n\n\n Larry Summers had adifferent take on it: \n I don't think the arithmetic is terribly difficult.\n\n\n You're looking at an average GDP gap deficit to potential GDP of 2%, and we're looking at a 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus. [...] The important question is whether there is 6 points of transitory inflation or 2 points of transitory inflation.\n\nThis idea is very important. Rather than asking whether inflation is transitory or not, we should be asking how much of it is transitory.\nAnd this is where the risk currently lies. While the S&P 500 (SPY) performed a roundtrip from 4250 to 4250 with a 90 point drop in between, a lot of the more cyclical stocks took a hit which put them back in our \"Buy List\".\nOur take is that the Fed is realizing that it can't really increase rates without causing ruckus in markets.\nWhen you add this to the fact that they might not have any choice but to keep printing money to buy bonds as the supply of bonds might overshoot the demand of these from foreign countries who already hold lots of US debt and show limited interest in purchasing the debt at negative real interest rates. This is according to Ray Dalio in the same call with Larry Summers mentioned above.\nThe risk of monetary inflation is very real. The likelihood of demand to continue increasing dramatically as money stored in financial markets hits the economy is also very high.\nWhat we've learned in investing, is that investors are too eager to wrap up a trade and move on to the \"next thing\". Many times, this is shortsighted, as even when the train has left the station, there is a lot of track left ahead.\nThis is one of these situations.\nValuations in high quality blue chips which are sensitive to the economy reopening are still so far from pre-Covid levels.\nThe fact that they are taking a breather doesn't detract from their ultimate destination, which is a lot higher.\nIn this article I highlight 3 such stocks.\nPlus in the meantime you get to sleep well at night, knowing that they offer a great combination of dividend yield and dividend growth.\nHeads you win, tails you win more.\nIBM (IBM)\nWhile IBM has increased from our latest mention of it in a public article, when we were purchasing the stock at a 5%+ yield, it still hovers just below our target \"Buy Below\" price of $150, courtesy of a small pull back last week.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nDividend growth has come to a stand still, and while we loaded up lower, it is still a great opportunity.\nThe real value lies in the fact that investors are not pricing Krishna's operational excellence since taking over.\nIBM stunned investors with its Q1 results. Fellow author Virginia Backaitis states in her excellent articleanalyzing IBM'soperations:\n\nI like how Krishna is thinking, and I like former Red Hat CEO Jim Whitehurst at his side. They are making purchases that align with IBM's strategy which hasn't always been the case at the company. The product lines that IBM is selling off now are smart choices... and they have others left to sell (but maybe there isn't a buyer).\n\nThis value will likely be realized following the spin-off of the legacy business into an entity which will benamed kyndryl.\nInvestors will likely be left with a high yield managed infrastructure business, and a low yield high growth cloud stock.\nWhen it happens, we'll decide which of both we'll hold onto, but we're quite confident that the two pieces will be worth than the sum of the part.\nAnd while you wait for this, you still get paid 4.5% by a super safe Blue Chip stock, which has the pricing power to fight inflation.\nKeyCorp (KEY)\nOne thing the last round of stress tests showed, was that US banks are resilient, and well capitalized. Yet last week they took a hit after the fed meeting. This week stress tests will be released, and most large banks are expected to do really well.\nAfter that, dividend increases will come in July as banks are eager to start returning wealth to shareholders.\nKeycorp is no exception. For an analysis of KEY's earnings development you can read Sheen Bay Research'sarticleon the stock.\nWhere I differ from his opinion is on the question of the dividend. While he doesn't expect a dividend hike, I expect all major banks to compete in their dividend increases.\nWhat investors must not forget is that in 2008 KEY paid a dividend of $0.38 per quarter, or double the current dividend.\nSince then, the company has been slowly redeeming itself, increasing the dividend every year.\nThe pandemic restrictions stopped KEY in their tracks.\nA look at our MAD Chart shows how eager the bank was at returning capital to shareholders in the past 10 years. Each time the dividend increases, the inferred value ranges shown on the MAD chart goes up.\nIn the past 10 years the dividend grew at 20% per annum, the rate dropped to 15% in the past 5 years, hindered by 0 growth last year.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nI believe that a 10-15% increase is very likely this year.\nIn this event, KEY's current yield of 3.6% would effectively become a 4% yield.\nBut to get fantastic income from KEY, you don't even need that much growth.\nAt a 3.6% yield, if you can get 7.5% annual dividend growth you get a fantastic income opportunity.\nLet's look at a simulation.\nLet's suggest a $10K investment in KEY, with dividends reinvested and dividend growth of 7.5% per annum.\nIn year 10, you'd expect $1,004 of income, or 10% of your original investment, which is our threshold for a \"great\" income opportunity.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nIn our mind there is no way that KEY doesn't grow at this rate, which would suggest hitting its pre 2008 dividend in 10 years.\nAs such we believe KEY to be a great pick for income investors. As KEY's dividend growth is on the back of growth in earnings and tangible book value per share, there is no doubt in our mind that sooner or later, the price will catch up with the higher income. The fed stress tests might be the catalyst banks need to move higher.\nIn the meantime get paid to wait.\nChevron (CVX)\nChevron is another stock which is hovering just below our target \"Buy Below\" price.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nWe're surprised that the oil trade is taking so long to play out. In late 2015, early 2016, the recovery to historically normal yields was a lot faster.\nYet CVX still yields 5%, after proving its resilience, superior balance sheet and increasing the dividend by 4% this year, sustaining their history of higher dividends every year for the past three decades.\nConsider the following slide from their latestearnings call:\nSource: Earnings Call.\nAt $40 brent, the dividend is covered with a little extra debt. As the energy major with the best balance sheet, it can afford this. At $60 brent, there would be excess cash above $25bn, or enough to fund the dividend for two and a half years.\nBrent is currently above $70. The longer it stays above that level, the higher the likelihood that CVX will actually have the excess cash suggested in the latter scenario.\nBack in August last year we suggested that you'll belaughing your wayto the bank with CVX's 6% yield.\nSince then, CVX has marginally beaten the S&P 500, but is far from over.\nIn the past 10 years CVX has yielded a median 3.86%. Its forward outlook is arguably better now than it was in much of the past decade, which had the energy market dealing with endemic oversupply. With underinvestment, the opposite is likely to be true in upcoming years.\nIf anything CVX should gravitate back towards its median yield which suggests further upside of 20%, much of which we expect will be realized in the latter half of 2021.\nIf you simulate a $10K investment in CVX assuming a 5% yield and 4% dividend growth, and reinvest dividends, then in year 10 you'd expect $1,154 in dividends of which $409 is expected to come from dividend reinvestments.\nThis equates to 11.54% of the initial investment, making CVX also an excellent income opportunity at current prices.\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe.\nConclusion\nAs long term dividend investors, we're always eager to get top companies at great valuations. The fed meeting changed nothing to the reopening trade. If anything it gave them a warning that even the slightest hint of a rate increase would be interpreted as hawkish, which will likely have the consequence of them acting later than they should, which exacerbates the likelihood of the value trade continuing.\nDon't confuse the market taking a breather with the end of the trade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2118,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}