Z世代投资学堂

用最有趣的方式学投资!投资漫画《大赢家》连载中,每日爆更中!

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    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·02-12

      Initial Report(part2): Haidilao International Holding Ltd.(HKSE), 42.7% 1-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Jayme YAK)

      2) Popmart has established a strong economic moat by actively seeking out global artists and securing intellectual property rights. This strategic move allows Popmart to develop its own unique toys and go beyond the production of toys solely derived from existing television series, establishing a distinctive brand presence. The company's in-house design team collaborates with artists to refine designs in alignment with the distinctive style of the intellectual property figures and incorporates valuable input from consumer feedback, enhancing the attractiveness of their products. This approach allows artists to concentrate on the creative design aspect while Popmart handles the commercialization process. A pivotal moment in Popmart's expansion was founder Wang Ning's visit to Kenny, the art
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      Initial Report(part2): Haidilao International Holding Ltd.(HKSE), 42.7% 1-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Jayme YAK)
    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·01-25

      Initial Report(part1): Futu Holdings Ltd. (FUTU.O), 95.78% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP GC, Billy ZHANG)

      Template_Initial Memo 副本 Company Overview Futu Holdings Limited is an internet brokerage company providing investors with US and Hong Kong stock trading services, with a one-stop financial trading platform, Futu Niu Niu, which supports A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, covering PC, MAC, iOS, and Android.It primarily serves the newly affluent Chinese population seeking a plethora of opportunities to facilitate the once-in-a-lifetime transformation of the wealth management industry and to build a broader digital portal for a wider range of financial services. In Part 1, this article will explore two questions (1) What does Futu's revenue consist of? (2) How and why total and segmented revenues have changed in recent years. Five stages of Futu growth With reference to the table a
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      Initial Report(part1): Futu Holdings Ltd. (FUTU.O), 95.78% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP GC, Billy ZHANG)
    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·01-24

      Initial Report: Shenzhen Mindray (SZSE:300760), 53% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, 沈佳扬)

      Why did the share price fall? The Anhui province local government used a volume-based procurement (“VBP”) to purchase chemiluminescence immunoassay (“CLLA”) in 2021. This means that the ASP would reduce, causing expected margins to decline. This triggered a selloff in share price. But the impacts were temporary or if not negligible as the factory prices were unaffected. In fact, margins and revenue size have grown since then. Thus, there may be some mispricing exist. Business model: Shenzhen Mindray (“SM”) is engaged in the R&D, manufacturing, and marketing of medical devices and relevant services. It has three major business segments: (1) Patient Monitoring & Life Support (2) In-Vitro Diagnostics (3) Medical Imaging. Their key focus has established their presence among new high-e
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      Initial Report: Shenzhen Mindray (SZSE:300760), 53% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, 沈佳扬)
    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·2023-11-05

      初始报告:中国移动(600941.SH),52%的5年潜力增长(VIP GC,谢宇迪)

      中国移动 一、基本概况 中国移动是全球领先的通信及信息服务企业,致力于为个人、家庭、政企、新兴市场提供全方位的通信及信息服务,是我国信息通信产业发展壮大的科技引领者和创新推动者。二十余年来,公司持续推进信息技术突破与应用,推动我国信息通信产业实现了“2G跟随、3G突破、4G同步、5G引领”的跨越式发展,建成了惠及全球五分之一人口的高速、移动、安全、泛在信息基础设施,一直以来,公司持续推进转型升级和创新发展,在语音、数据、宽带、专线、IDC、云计算、物联网等业务基础上,积极开拓数字经济新蓝海,不断推出超高清视频、视频彩铃、和彩云、移动认证、权益超市等个人数字内容与应用,拓展娱乐、教育、养老、安防等多样化智慧家庭运营服务,引领智慧城市、工业、交通、医疗等产业互联网DICT解决方案示范项目落地。进入5G时代,公司积极筑牢“新基建”根基,夯实千行百业数智化转型的关键基础;加速“新要素”运用,推动信息技术和数据的汇聚应用,为经济增长注入强劲动力;促进“新业态”繁荣,丰富拓展数字生活、生产、治理的信息服务,打造经济社会民生数智化转型升级的创新引擎。     二、投资要点 a)    C端业务文件,5G千兆网带来ARPU提升,5G套餐渗透率63%,仍有较大空间,同时云计算等B端业务快速成长,业绩贡献度不断提升。 b)    中国特色估值体系重构,产业数字化价值显现,近期有海外云服务禁止中国使用的新闻,看好国内移动云市场份额突破。 c)    优化资本开始,提前布局算力网络,铺垫AI算力基础,云网一体化优势显著。 d)    产业投资有望可以往产业链上下游拓展,将移动产业生态圈不断完善,打来进一步的协同效应。   三、估值分析
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      初始报告:中国移动(600941.SH),52%的5年潜力增长(VIP GC,谢宇迪)
    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·2023-11-04

      初始报告:爱美客(XSHE:300896)15%的5年潜力增长(VIP GC,叶政)

      投资建议:买入(目标价为低于359.55元) 轻医美行业发展空间巨大,中国市场处于早期阶段 爱美客具备医美行业的护城河(先发优势;技术专利积累) 当前价格处于历史平均低点,且爱美客近期回购股权 公司概述 爱美客于2004年成立,一家从事生物医用材料研发、生产和销售的企业,是中国最早开展医疗美容生物医用材料自主研发的企业。爱美客在多款不同产品都扮演着先领者的角色(参考下表)如今,按销量计已成为中国最大的玻尿酸产品制造商。2020年市场份额为27.2%,按销售额计公司2020年市场份额为14.3%,在中国所有玻尿酸产品制造商中排名第一、在全球制造商中排名第三。 持股平台高度激励员工 爱美客的高管及核心技术人员专业背景多元,行业积累深厚。同时,公司内建立了员工持股平台,以最大程度上激发员工的工作积极性。 产品线 爱美客在打造自家产品方面主要采用“ 差异化 + 多品类” 的战略。目前爱美客拥有七款获得三类医疗器械认证的产品:五款基于透明质酸的皮肤填充剂、童颜针、PPDO面部埋植线产品。爱美客的产品线主要可以分为溶液类、凝胶类和理植类三种,其中爱美客专注于做注射类玻尿酸产品,并逐步拓展其他类业务 行业分析 轻医美行业特点 轻医美行业的技术、资质和认证壁垒较高,因此新进入的企业很难在短期形成规模效应,由此决定了拥有先发优势的企业能够避免新进入者的干扰。 医美行业发展 中国的医疗美容服务市场增速高于全球水平,2016年至2020年的CAGR为18.9%,而同时期全球的CAGR为2.2%。尽管如此,从渗透率看,中国市场医美渗透率较其他医美大国(日本、韩国、美国等)仍存在较大的可发展空间。 产业链 医美产业链由上游产品供应、中游服务机构以及下游消费者构成。上游的药剂产品制造商由于具备核心技术与规模优势,议价能力较强,对应毛利率最高。中游服务机构和下游消费者中又存在较为关键的
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      初始报告:爱美客(XSHE:300896)15%的5年潜力增长(VIP GC,叶政)
    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·2023-11-03

      Initial Report: Luckin Coffee (LKNCY), 100% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP GC, Chen Jingxiang)

      Company Overview Luckin Coffee is the largest coffee chain in China by outlet. It has both self-operated stores as well as partnership stores over China. Built on the basis of a technology-driven new retail model, the stores mainly served as collection points for coffee deliveries through their proprietary mobile application as well as 3(rd) party platforms like Meituan or Ele.me. Franchised stores (new retail partnership) Franchised stores represent ~33%[1] of the total number of stores that Luckin have in China. According to data from its latest publicity drive to attract franchisee, we can see that Franchised stores cover the tier 2 and tier 3 cities in China, which is part of the sinking market. Given such aggressive expansion, it can be seen as a move for Luckin Coffee to further est
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      Initial Report: Luckin Coffee (LKNCY), 100% 5-yr Potential Upside (VIP GC, Chen Jingxiang)
    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·2023-10-13

      初始报告:美团(03690.HK), 80%的5年潜力增长(VIP GC,刘胜杰)

      MEITUAN Company 03690.HK   1. 公司概述 美团成立于2010年3月,秉承“帮大家吃得更好,生活更好”的使命,立足生活服务业这一数十万亿的广阔市场,聚焦餐饮这一高频刚需的核心品类,带动其他业务的发展,成为中国互联网生活服务领域的龙头公司。美团服务涵盖外卖、餐饮、酒店旅游、休闲玩乐、零售等200多个品类,覆盖全国2800多个县区市。 2. 业务范围 2.1美团优选 社区团购业务.美团优选是美团旗下的社区电商业务 ,采取“预购+自提”的模式,进入社区电商赛道,进一步探索社区生鲜零售业态,满足差异化消费需求,推动生鲜零售线上线下加速融合。 2.2美团外卖 网上订餐平台。美团外卖是美团旗下网上订餐平台,于2013年11月正式上线,总部位于北京。 2.3美团酒店 美团旗下的综合住宿服务平台 2.4美团买菜 掌上买菜应用 2.5美团闪购 美团闪购 是美团旗下的即时零售平台  ,涵盖超市便利  、专卖店、酒水零食、果蔬生鲜、鲜花绿植、宠物母婴 、数码图书、日化美妆、家电杂货等诸多品类 。依托美团大生态   的海量用户、每日百万级在岗骑手、全国超过2800个市区县旗的地域覆盖,掘金Grocery零售市场 。 2.6美团打车、美团单车、猫眼电影等 3. 竞争优势 外卖业务:庞大的用户基数,虽然毛利低,但其高频特性能够带动公司低频业务如到店酒旅。难以复制的投入成本、配送体系是该项业务的护城河,配送体系也为公司打入同城零售市场构建基础。庞大的用户基数、且由于涉及到日常生活,使用频率高。 经过前期的高补贴获客阶段,美团目前已经完成消费者教育,“餐饮”业务独有的高频次和高基数的属性进一步奠定了海量的用户基数。 到店业务:到店餐饮、到店综合、酒店预订和旅游服务 美团更近于工具平台,而抖音内容娱乐属性鲜明,底层逻辑的
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      初始报告:美团(03690.HK), 80%的5年潜力增长(VIP GC,刘胜杰)
    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·2023-09-29

      初始报告:贝泰妮(300957.SZ),93%的5年潜力增长(VIP GC 麦崇俨)

      贝泰妮:敏感肌护肤赛道的国货之光 一、             核心结论 贝泰妮主营护肤品,核心品牌“薇诺娜”贡献主要营收。目前皮肤学级护肤品仍处于成长期,预计未来增速~15%,乐观看远期天花板可达1000亿。薇诺娜由于其深耕多年的医院渠道、不输大牌的产品力、随时间加固的品牌力和敏感肌护肤品的高转换成本使得薇诺娜基本盘稳固,预期终局薇诺娜份额30-40%。目前由于Q1阶段性业绩增速放缓,股价一直呈现下行趋势,消化之前的高估值,但由于公司主营本身生意模式的优秀和稳定,对比同业给25x NTM PE,可以认为在不给予成长预期的情况下300亿是极限估值,300亿以下可越跌越买。乐观状况下2030年看1350亿   二、             公司概况 概述:公司是云南昆明的民企,10年成立,11年滇虹药业(97年成立,主营皮肤病药物、药用去屑洗剂产品,拥有滇虹、康王等品牌,14年被德国拜耳收购100%股权)因筹备上市剥离非主营业务将“薇诺娜”系列(滇虹药业08年孵化的化妆品项目)无形资产全部转让给公司,19年股改,21年创业板上市。   财务情况:优秀的ROE表现,现金流稳定,BS表稳健 图 1 核心财务指标     股权结构:实控人GUO ZHENYU(郭振宇)、KEVIN GUO(加拿大和美国双国籍,博士在读,无任职)父子共控股48.7%。控股股东诺娜科技(实控人控股51%)46%,红杉聚业(14年进入)15%,员工持股平台臻丽咨询、重楼投资共10%,哈祈生(实控人控股100%)3% 图
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      初始报告:贝泰妮(300957.SZ),93%的5年潜力增长(VIP GC 麦崇俨)
    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·2023-09-15

      Initial Report(Part 3): XPeng Inc (09868.HK), 86% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Xia Mian)

      6. Valuation Based on a survey of analyst reports, the consensus estimate is in the range of HK$48 to 59. (7) Taking a conservative end of the range, this report suggests a modest valuation of HK$52.50. Given the last closing price of HK$49.60 (24 June 2023), there is still an upside of 32.58%, which is expected to be achieved within the next one to three years. Accordingly, this report issues a BUY recommendation on XPeng Inc (09868.HK). (7) See for example, Yin Xinchi, Li Jingtao, Li Zijun, Wu Pingyue, Jian Zhixin and Dong Juntao (CITIC Securities), “Q12023 Results under Pressure, G6 and XNGP Regaining Confidence (23Q1业绩承压,G6和XNGP将重聚信心)” (29 May 2023), giving a target price of HK$48; Huang Leping, Chen Xudong, Zhang Yu and Guo Chunxin (Huatai Securities), “Bullish on XPeng’s Second Quar
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      Initial Report(Part 3): XPeng Inc (09868.HK), 86% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Xia Mian)
    • Z世代投资学堂Z世代投资学堂
      ·2023-09-15

      Initial Report(Part 2): XPeng Inc (09868.HK), 86% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Xia Mian)

      As it stands, there are two major technology pathways for EV fast-charging: 1) 400V+ High Current fast charging led by Tesla, and 2) 800V High Voltage fast charging led by Porsche. Among them, the former poses a huge challenge to copper wire specifications, thermal management, and construction of high-current charging facilities. Therefore, in order to be compatible with the fast charging function of all levels of models, 800V electrical architecture is gradually becoming the mainstream choice of fast charging solutions for EV manufacturers other than Tesla. Among them, in 2019, luxury car brand Porsche launched the world's first 800V model Taycan; in September 2022, XPeng launched the G9 model to achieve the first mass produced configuration of silicon carbide chip 800V (SiC+800V) high-vo
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      Initial Report(Part 2): XPeng Inc (09868.HK), 86% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Xia Mian)
       
       
       
       

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