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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-13
  A good reminder of lessons to be learnt from dotcom bubble.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-07
  Which stock is better- xpeng or byd?
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-05
  Would like to know what kind of event will trigger the bitcoin price to drop to $20K level.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-03
  Can believe the jobs data?
  The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>
  On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat
  The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-07-02
  Does anyone here think Fed will raise rates sooner than late 2022?
  Fed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says<blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示，美联储可能最早需要在2022年底加息</blockquote>
  (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 o
  Fed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says<blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示，美联储可能最早需要在2022年底加息</blockquote>
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- JwongJwong
  ·2021-06-29
  Hope the various govts have learnt not to repeat the same mistakes in dealing with delta variant.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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stock is better- xpeng or byd?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140314504","repostId":"2149360674","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154376951,"gmtCreate":1625485061273,"gmtModify":1631885239690,"author":{"id":"3584225860430865","authorId":"3584225860430865","name":"Jwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584225860430865","idStr":"3584225860430865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Would like to know&nbsp;what kind of event will trigger&nbsp;the bitcoin price to drop to $20K level.&nbsp;","listText":"Would like to know&nbsp;what kind of event will trigger&nbsp;the bitcoin price to drop to $20K level.&nbsp;","text":"Would like to know what kind of event will trigger the bitcoin price to drop to $20K level.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154376951","repostId":"1139574200","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152520791,"gmtCreate":1625315275613,"gmtModify":1631885239696,"author":{"id":"3584225860430865","authorId":"3584225860430865","name":"Jwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584225860430865","idStr":"3584225860430865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can believe the jobs data?&nbsp;","listText":"Can believe the jobs data?&nbsp;","text":"Can believe the jobs data?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152520791","repostId":"1197906560","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197906560","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625285328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197906560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 12:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197906560","media":"Barron's","summary":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat ","content":"<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她表示，在调整低工资休闲、酒店和零售工人的回归后，6月份平均时薪较5月份增长了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森表示：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Jobs Report Was Strong. Why Investors Should Be Skeptical.<blockquote>就业报告强劲。为什么投资者应该持怀疑态度。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 12:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，六月份的就业报告看起来几乎完美。在经历了几个月的失望之后，招聘超出了华尔街的预期——工资上涨，但速度低于春季的高水平。</blockquote></p><p> One might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.</p><p><blockquote>人们可能会想宣布劳动力短缺已经结束，通胀辩论已经结束。但投资者现在还不应该上钩。尽管非农就业人数增加85万人不可否认是强劲的，但它掩盖了劳动力市场仍然受到供应问题的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> First, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>首先，考虑一下上个月政府招聘人数增加了193,000人。这就是整个整体超出经济学家预期的原因。公司就业人数增加了66.2万人，这在正常情况下是不可思议的。然而，随着经济突然开放，接种疫苗的消费者花费了大流行期间储存的数万亿美元现金，这一数字仍远未达到经济学家在复苏阶段预期的100万美元大关。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，Pantheon Macroeconomics的伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，私人就业人数远低于员工调度公司Homebase备受关注的数据所暗示的100万。</blockquote></p><p> Second, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>其次，尽管招聘情况有所改善，但6月份劳动力参与率持平。这一比率为61.6%，仍比大流行前的水平下降1.7个百分点。美联储官员表示正在关注的就业人口比率在6月份也没有变化；为58%，仍比疫情前水平低3.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.</p><p><blockquote>三是工资增速放缓具有欺骗性。较5月份增长0.3%看起来像是金发姑娘，足以推动持续支出，而不会加剧通胀担忧，随着劳动力、薯片和食品的短缺推高价格，通胀担忧一直在加剧。</blockquote></p><p> “If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞首席经济学家阿内塔·马科夫斯卡(Aneta Markowska)在谈到6月份工资增长时表示：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这低估了基本工资通胀率的真实水平。”她表示，在调整低工资休闲、酒店和零售工人的回归后，6月份平均时薪较5月份增长了0.5%。按照这一标准，它们比去年同期增长了4.5%。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的加德·莱瓦农(Gad Levanon)表示，过去三个月，随着公司追逐员工，总体工资年化上涨了6%。</blockquote></p><p> Further highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步凸显了一个事实，即招聘仍然受到供应而非需求的阻碍：今年按年计算，休闲和酒店工资上涨了12.3%，运输和仓储工资上涨了8%，零售工资上涨了5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.</p><p><blockquote>那么，投资者如何看待6月份的就业报告呢？没有。也就是说，最新数据无助于解决劳动力市场面临的最大问题。</blockquote></p><p> The degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.</p><p><blockquote>暂时性因素——慷慨的失业救济金、儿童保育问题和Covid-19担忧——在多大程度上限制了招聘并推高了工资，几个月内还不清楚。学校需要重新开放，以解决阻碍在职父母的儿童保育问题，而增加的失业救济金需要到期，然后才能清楚这些福利在多大程度上让工人留在家里。</blockquote></p><p> While about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在联邦计划9月6日到期之前，大约有24个州已经开始削减或即将削减每周额外300美元的失业保险，但谢泼德森指出，70%的失业者不会受到这些提前终止的影响。由于6月份的报告对美联储没有任何影响，因此不应阻止股市的前进。</blockquote></p><p> At least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.</p><p><blockquote>至少现在是这样。谢泼德森表示：“看到85万份工资单打印出来，你不会不高兴，但这还不够快。”特别是考虑到无数指标、求助标志和公司评论所证明的劳动力需求。“劳动力供应问题可能会自行解决，但也可能不会，”他说。“真正的问题是，我们最终可能会面临持续的工资通胀。”然而，政策制定者将在获得明确数据之前犹豫不决——而这要到11月份。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着从现在到秋季的数据都是噪音。许多经济学家和投资者预计美联储将在下个月的杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上宣布缩减每月1200亿美元资产购买规模的计划。</blockquote></p><p> Not so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>谢泼德森说，没那么快。“这并不像市场希望的那样线性，杰克逊霍尔也不会清楚这一点，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> If that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.</p><p><blockquote>如果这是正确的——美联储要到秋季晚些时候才能及时获得制定缩减计划所需的数据——可能会出现更长时间的超宽松货币政策。这是假设官员们在实际开始撤回支持之前有时间电传计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>从现在到秋季，忽略噪音或就业数据的风险就在于此。如果学校复课和提高失业救济金的结束不能让工人回来，那么很明显，结构性问题正在发挥作用，工资通胀因此更加持久。正如谢泼德森所说，美联储很有可能不得不在2022年加息，因为人们很有可能不会重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该继续享受股市的涨幅。但他们也应该小心。等待明确的数据来显示劳动力短缺是否不仅仅是暂时的，这意味着政策制定者可能不得不比看起来更快更快地采取行动——特别是如果未来几个月出现像6月份dot这样具有欺骗性的平衡报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jobs-report-investors-should-be-skeptical-51625267210?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197906560","content_text":"On its face, the June jobs report looksalmost perfect. After months of disappointments, hiring beat Wall Street’s expectations—with wages rising, but at a cooler pace than the lofty levels of spring.\nOne might be tempted to declare the labor shortage over and the inflation debate done. But investors shouldn’t take the bait just yet. While a nonfarm payroll increase of 850,000 is undeniably strong, it belies a labor market still plagued with supply problems.\nFirst, consider that government hiring rose 193,000 last month. That accounts for the entire headline overshoot versus economists’ expectations. Company payrolls increased 662,000, which would be incredible for normal times. Yet it was still far off the one million mark that economists had anticipated by this point in the recovery, as the economy bursts open and vaccinated consumers spend the trillions of dollars in cash stashed during the pandemic.\nWhat’s more, private payrolls came in well short of the one million implied by closely watched data from employee-scheduling company Homebase, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.\nSecond, labor-force participation was flat in June despite better hiring. That rate, 61.6%, is still down 1.7 percentage points from its prepandemic level. The employment-population ratio, which Federal Reserve officials have said they are watching, was also unchanged in June; at 58%, it remains 3.1 percentage points below its prepandemic level.\nThird, the slowdown in wage growth is deceiving. The 0.3% increase from May looks like a Goldilocks print—enough to drive continued spending without fueling inflation fears that have been building as shortages from labor to chips to food push prices broadly higher.\n“If anything, this understates the true rate of underlying wage inflation,” says Jefferies chief economist Aneta Markowska of the June wage increase. After adjusting for the return of low-wage leisure, hospitality, and retail workers, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in June from May, she says. By that measure, they are up 4.5% from a year earlier. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% as companies chase workers, says Gad Levanon of the Conference Board.\nFurther highlighting the fact that hiring is still being held back by supply, not demand: On an annualized basis this year, leisure and hospitality wages are up 12.3%, transportation and warehousing pay is up 8%, and retail wages are up 5.5%.\nSo, what’s an investor to make of the June jobs report? Nothing. Which is to say, the latest data do nothing to resolve the biggest questions facing the labor market.\nThe degrees to which transitory factors—generous unemployment benefits, child-care issues, and Covid-19 concerns—are capping hiring and driving up wages won’t be clear for months. Schools need to reopen to resolve child-care issues holding back working parents, and enhanced unemployment pay needs to expire before it becomes clear the extent to which such benefits are keeping workers home.\nWhile about two dozen states either started cutting or are about to cut the extra $300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration, Shepherdson notes that 70% of those unemployed won’t be affected by those early terminations. Because the June report does nothing to move the Fed’s needle, it shouldn’t stop the stock market from forging ahead.\nAt least for now. “You can’t be unhappy to see an 850,000 payroll print, but it’s nowhere near fast enough,” Shepherdson says, especially given labor demand as evidenced by myriad indicators, help-wanted signs, and company commentary. “The labor-supply problem may fix itself, but it may not,” he says. “The issue really is that we could end up with sustained wage inflation.” Policy makers, however, will punt until they have definitive data—and that won’t be until November.\nAll of this means that data between now and the fall are noise. Many economists and investors are expecting the Fed to announce, at the annual Jackson Hole symposium next month, plans to taper its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases.\nNot so fast, Shepherdson says. “This isn’t as linear as markets would like, and it won’t be clear by Jackson Hole,” he says.\nIf that’s right—that the Fed won’t have the data they want in time to lay out taper plans until later in the fall—an even longer period of ultraloose monetary policy might be in store. That is assuming there’s time for officials to telegraph plans well ahead of actually starting to withdraw support.\nTherein lies the risk of tuning out the noise, or the employment data, between now and the fall. If the resumption of school and the end to enhanced unemployment benefits don’t bring workers back, it will become clear that structural issues are at play and wage inflation is thus more persistent. As Shepherdson puts it, there is a strong likelihood that the Fed has to raise interest rates in 2022 because there is a good chance people won’t come back into the labor force.\nInvestors should continue to enjoythe stock market gains. But they should also be careful. Waiting for definitive data to show whether the labor shortage is more than transitory means policy makers might have to act sooner and faster than it would seem—especially if deceivingly balanced reports like June’s dot the next few months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156159897,"gmtCreate":1625204446619,"gmtModify":1631885239710,"author":{"id":"3584225860430865","authorId":"3584225860430865","name":"Jwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584225860430865","idStr":"3584225860430865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Does anyone here think Fed will raise rates sooner&nbsp;than late 2022?","listText":"Does anyone here think Fed will raise rates sooner&nbsp;than late 2022?","text":"Does anyone here think Fed will raise rates sooner than late 2022?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156159897","repostId":"1161499488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161499488","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625203730,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161499488?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 13:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says<blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示，美联储可能最早需要在2022年底加息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161499488","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 o","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 or early 2023 as increased government spending keeps inflation above its long-run average target, according to the International Monetary Fund.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——国际货币基金组织表示，由于政府支出增加使通胀保持在长期平均目标之上，美联储可能需要在2022年底或2023年初开始加息。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. central bank likely will begin to scale back asset purchases in the first half of 2022, staff from the Washington-based fund said in a statement Thursday following the conclusion of so-called article IV consultations, the IMF’s assessment of countries’ economic and financial developments following meetings with lawmakers and public officials.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于华盛顿的基金组织的工作人员周四在所谓的第四条磋商结束后在一份声明中表示，美联储可能会在2022年上半年开始缩减资产购买规模。与立法者和公职人员会面后的金融发展。</blockquote></p><p> “Managing this transition -- from providing reassurance that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy to preparing for an eventual scaling back of asset purchases and a withdrawal of monetary accommodation -- will require deft communications under a potentially tight timeline,” IMF staff said in the concluding statement.</p><p><blockquote>“管理这一转变——从保证货币政策将继续为经济提供强有力的支持，到为最终缩减资产购买和退出货币宽松做好准备——将需要在可能紧张的时间表下进行灵巧的沟通，”国际货币基金组织工作人员在总结声明中表示。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed held interest rates near zero at its June 15-16 meeting and signaled it would probably keep them there through next year to help the U.S. economy recover from Covid-19. Officials penciled in two rate hikes for 2023 and seven of the 18 policy makers want to raise rates in 2022, up from four in March.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在6月15日至16日的会议上将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示可能会在明年维持利率不变，以帮助美国经济从Covid-19中复苏。官员们预计2023年加息两次，18位政策制定者中有7位希望在2022年加息，高于3月份的4位。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that recent steep increases in inflation will prove to be largely transitory due to bottlenecks and that expectations on the whole are where the Fed wants them.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，由于瓶颈，近期通胀急剧上升将在很大程度上被证明是暂时的，总体预期符合美联储的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation Forecasts</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀预测</blockquote></p><p> The personal consumption expenditures price gauge that the Fed uses for its inflation target rose 3.9% in May from a year earlier, the most since 2008. The IMF forecasts the increase to be transitory, with the index peaking at 4.3% and dropping to around 2.5% by the end of 2022. That’s still above the Fed’s long-run average target of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储用于通胀目标的个人消费支出价格指标5月份同比上涨3.9%，为2008年以来的最高水平。国际货币基金组织预测，这一增长是暂时的，该指数将达到4.3%的峰值，到2022年底将降至2.5%左右。这仍高于美联储2%的长期平均目标。</blockquote></p><p> At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee marked up all its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023, with officials seeing personal consumption expenditures -- their preferred measure of price pressures -- rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. They increased the 2022 forecast to 2.1%, and 2.2% for the following year.</p><p><blockquote>在6月份的会议上，联邦公开市场委员会上调了截至2023年底的所有通胀预测，官员们预计个人消费支出（他们首选的价格压力衡量标准）将在2021年增长3.4%，而3月份的预测为2.4%。他们将2022年的预测上调至2.1%，次年上调至2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Fund staff estimates that the higher U.S. spending proposed by President Joe Biden in the infrastructure-focused American Jobs Plan and the social-spending-based American Families Plan -- which have yet to pass -- would increase growth in gross domestic product by a cumulative value of about 5.25% from 2022 to 2024.</p><p><blockquote>基金工作人员估计，乔·拜登总统在以基础设施为重点的美国就业计划和以社会支出为基础的美国家庭计划中提出的增加美国支出（尚未通过）将使国内生产总值的增长累计增长2022年至2024年价值约为5.25%。</blockquote></p><p> The IMF raised its estimate for U.S. economic expansion this year to 7% -- the fastest pace since 1984 -- from a 6.4% forecast in April.</p><p><blockquote>国际货币基金组织将今年美国经济扩张预期从4月份的6.4%上调至7%，为1984年以来的最快增速。</blockquote></p><p> Lawmakers have release a wave of pandemic-relief funds over the past 15 months to buoy the economy with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in March, a $900 billion package approved in December and the $2 trillion Cares Act of March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>过去15个月，立法者通过3月份通过的1.9万亿美元美国救援计划、12月份批准的9000亿美元一揽子计划以及2020年3月2万亿美元的Cares法案，释放了一波流行病救助资金来提振经济。</blockquote></p><p> “The unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, combined with the receding Covid-19 case numbers, should provide a substantial boost to activity in the coming months,” the IMF said. “Savings will be drawn down, demand will return for in-person services, and depleted inventories will be rebuilt.”</p><p><blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示：“前所未有的财政和货币支持，加上Covid-19病例数量的下降，应该会大幅提振未来几个月的经济活动。”“储蓄将会减少，对面对面服务的需求将会恢复，耗尽的库存将会重建。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says<blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示，美联储可能最早需要在2022年底加息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Likely Needs to Raise Rates as Soon as Late 2022, IMF Says<blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示，美联储可能最早需要在2022年底加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 13:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 or early 2023 as increased government spending keeps inflation above its long-run average target, according to the International Monetary Fund.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——国际货币基金组织表示，由于政府支出增加使通胀保持在长期平均目标之上，美联储可能需要在2022年底或2023年初开始加息。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. central bank likely will begin to scale back asset purchases in the first half of 2022, staff from the Washington-based fund said in a statement Thursday following the conclusion of so-called article IV consultations, the IMF’s assessment of countries’ economic and financial developments following meetings with lawmakers and public officials.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于华盛顿的基金组织的工作人员周四在所谓的第四条磋商结束后在一份声明中表示，美联储可能会在2022年上半年开始缩减资产购买规模。与立法者和公职人员会面后的金融发展。</blockquote></p><p> “Managing this transition -- from providing reassurance that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy to preparing for an eventual scaling back of asset purchases and a withdrawal of monetary accommodation -- will require deft communications under a potentially tight timeline,” IMF staff said in the concluding statement.</p><p><blockquote>“管理这一转变——从保证货币政策将继续为经济提供强有力的支持，到为最终缩减资产购买和退出货币宽松做好准备——将需要在可能紧张的时间表下进行灵巧的沟通，”国际货币基金组织工作人员在总结声明中表示。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed held interest rates near zero at its June 15-16 meeting and signaled it would probably keep them there through next year to help the U.S. economy recover from Covid-19. Officials penciled in two rate hikes for 2023 and seven of the 18 policy makers want to raise rates in 2022, up from four in March.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在6月15日至16日的会议上将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示可能会在明年维持利率不变，以帮助美国经济从Covid-19中复苏。官员们预计2023年加息两次，18位政策制定者中有7位希望在2022年加息，高于3月份的4位。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that recent steep increases in inflation will prove to be largely transitory due to bottlenecks and that expectations on the whole are where the Fed wants them.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，由于瓶颈，近期通胀急剧上升将在很大程度上被证明是暂时的，总体预期符合美联储的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation Forecasts</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀预测</blockquote></p><p> The personal consumption expenditures price gauge that the Fed uses for its inflation target rose 3.9% in May from a year earlier, the most since 2008. The IMF forecasts the increase to be transitory, with the index peaking at 4.3% and dropping to around 2.5% by the end of 2022. That’s still above the Fed’s long-run average target of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>美联储用于通胀目标的个人消费支出价格指标5月份同比上涨3.9%，为2008年以来的最高水平。国际货币基金组织预测，这一增长是暂时的，该指数将达到4.3%的峰值，到2022年底将降至2.5%左右。这仍高于美联储2%的长期平均目标。</blockquote></p><p> At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee marked up all its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023, with officials seeing personal consumption expenditures -- their preferred measure of price pressures -- rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. They increased the 2022 forecast to 2.1%, and 2.2% for the following year.</p><p><blockquote>在6月份的会议上，联邦公开市场委员会上调了截至2023年底的所有通胀预测，官员们预计个人消费支出（他们首选的价格压力衡量标准）将在2021年增长3.4%，而3月份的预测为2.4%。他们将2022年的预测上调至2.1%，次年上调至2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Fund staff estimates that the higher U.S. spending proposed by President Joe Biden in the infrastructure-focused American Jobs Plan and the social-spending-based American Families Plan -- which have yet to pass -- would increase growth in gross domestic product by a cumulative value of about 5.25% from 2022 to 2024.</p><p><blockquote>基金工作人员估计，乔·拜登总统在以基础设施为重点的美国就业计划和以社会支出为基础的美国家庭计划中提出的增加美国支出（尚未通过）将使国内生产总值的增长累计增长2022年至2024年价值约为5.25%。</blockquote></p><p> The IMF raised its estimate for U.S. economic expansion this year to 7% -- the fastest pace since 1984 -- from a 6.4% forecast in April.</p><p><blockquote>国际货币基金组织将今年美国经济扩张预期从4月份的6.4%上调至7%，为1984年以来的最快增速。</blockquote></p><p> Lawmakers have release a wave of pandemic-relief funds over the past 15 months to buoy the economy with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in March, a $900 billion package approved in December and the $2 trillion Cares Act of March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>过去15个月，立法者通过3月份通过的1.9万亿美元美国救援计划、12月份批准的9000亿美元一揽子计划以及2020年3月2万亿美元的Cares法案，释放了一波流行病救助资金来提振经济。</blockquote></p><p> “The unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, combined with the receding Covid-19 case numbers, should provide a substantial boost to activity in the coming months,” the IMF said. “Savings will be drawn down, demand will return for in-person services, and depleted inventories will be rebuilt.”</p><p><blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示：“前所未有的财政和货币支持，加上Covid-19病例数量的下降，应该会大幅提振未来几个月的经济活动。”“储蓄将会减少，对面对面服务的需求将会恢复，耗尽的库存将会重建。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-needs-raise-rates-200035658.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-likely-needs-raise-rates-200035658.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161499488","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve probably will need to begin raising interest rates in late 2022 or early 2023 as increased government spending keeps inflation above its long-run average target, according to the International Monetary Fund.\nThe U.S. central bank likely will begin to scale back asset purchases in the first half of 2022, staff from the Washington-based fund said in a statement Thursday following the conclusion of so-called article IV consultations, the IMF’s assessment of countries’ economic and financial developments following meetings with lawmakers and public officials.\n“Managing this transition -- from providing reassurance that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy to preparing for an eventual scaling back of asset purchases and a withdrawal of monetary accommodation -- will require deft communications under a potentially tight timeline,” IMF staff said in the concluding statement.\nThe Fed held interest rates near zero at its June 15-16 meeting and signaled it would probably keep them there through next year to help the U.S. economy recover from Covid-19. Officials penciled in two rate hikes for 2023 and seven of the 18 policy makers want to raise rates in 2022, up from four in March.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell has said that recent steep increases in inflation will prove to be largely transitory due to bottlenecks and that expectations on the whole are where the Fed wants them.\nInflation Forecasts\nThe personal consumption expenditures price gauge that the Fed uses for its inflation target rose 3.9% in May from a year earlier, the most since 2008. The IMF forecasts the increase to be transitory, with the index peaking at 4.3% and dropping to around 2.5% by the end of 2022. That’s still above the Fed’s long-run average target of 2%.\nAt its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee marked up all its inflation forecasts through the end of 2023, with officials seeing personal consumption expenditures -- their preferred measure of price pressures -- rising 3.4% in 2021 compared with a March projection of 2.4%. They increased the 2022 forecast to 2.1%, and 2.2% for the following year.\nFund staff estimates that the higher U.S. spending proposed by President Joe Biden in the infrastructure-focused American Jobs Plan and the social-spending-based American Families Plan -- which have yet to pass -- would increase growth in gross domestic product by a cumulative value of about 5.25% from 2022 to 2024.\nThe IMF raised its estimate for U.S. economic expansion this year to 7% -- the fastest pace since 1984 -- from a 6.4% forecast in April.\nLawmakers have release a wave of pandemic-relief funds over the past 15 months to buoy the economy with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in March, a $900 billion package approved in December and the $2 trillion Cares Act of March 2020.\n“The unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, combined with the receding Covid-19 case numbers, should provide a substantial boost to activity in the coming months,” the IMF said. “Savings will be drawn down, demand will return for in-person services, and depleted inventories will be rebuilt.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159819825,"gmtCreate":1624954997567,"gmtModify":1631884322932,"author":{"id":"3584225860430865","authorId":"3584225860430865","name":"Jwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584225860430865","idStr":"3584225860430865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope the various govts have learnt not to repeat the same mistakes in dealing with delta variant.&nbsp;","listText":"Hope the various govts have learnt not to repeat the same mistakes in dealing with delta variant.&nbsp;","text":"Hope the various govts have learnt not to repeat the same mistakes in dealing with delta variant.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159819825","repostId":"2147854949","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}