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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-12-22
  Wow
  盘前异动：中概股又双叒叕跌了！跑路还是抄底？
  12月22日，美股股指期货震荡走低，道指期货跌0.08%，纳指期货跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.19%。热门中概股盘前集体走低，哔哩哔哩、贝壳跌超3%，拼多多、京东、百度、滴滴跌超2%；阿里
  盘前异动：中概股又双叒叕跌了！跑路还是抄底？
  3,054 评论
  2
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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-11-23
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  4,058 评论
  3
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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-10-01
  Wow
  Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>称道琼斯指数为20,000点的教授表示，他对通胀趋势感到紧张，通胀趋势可能引发股市调整</blockquote>
  Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business,
  Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>称道琼斯指数为20,000点的教授表示，他对通胀趋势感到紧张，通胀趋势可能引发股市调整</blockquote>
  1,979 评论
  3
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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-09-23
  wow
  @Joyce5914：
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$up again...nice
  $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$up again...nice
  1,699 评论
  点赞
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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-09-18
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,474 1
  1
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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-09-18
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,494 1
  2
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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-07-27
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,210 评论
  6
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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-06-17
  Like and comment pls
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,277 3
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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-06-16
  Like and comment pls
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,981 2
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- DtaylolDtaylol
  ·2021-06-15
  Comment and like pls
  What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议有何期待</blockquote>
  As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a
  What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议有何期待</blockquote>
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17:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前异动：中概股又双叒叕跌了！跑路还是抄底？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169676864","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月22日，美股股指期货震荡走低，道指期货跌0.08%，纳指期货跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.19%。\n\n热门中概股盘前集体走低，哔哩哔哩、贝壳跌超3%，拼多多、京东、百度、滴滴跌超2%；\n阿里","content":"<p>12月22日，美股股指期货震荡走低，道指期货跌0.08%，纳指期货跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.19%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551b98048064da3edc33ef2e467313f9\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>热门中概股盘前集体走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌超2%；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌近4%，此前阿里云被暂停作为工信部网络安全威胁信息共享平台合作单位；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前涨超2%，特斯拉CEO马斯克12月21日出售583611股特斯拉股票，占其承诺出售的79.09%；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">黑莓</a>盘前跌近4%，2022财年三季度营收1.84亿美元，同比下降15.6％；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVA\">Cassava Sciences</a>盘前涨超3%，此前科学杂志发现针对Cassava 2005年论文中数据被操纵的指控不成立。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前异动：中概股又双叒叕跌了！跑路还是抄底？</title>\n<style 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17:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月22日，美股股指期货震荡走低，道指期货跌0.08%，纳指期货跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.19%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/551b98048064da3edc33ef2e467313f9\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>热门中概股盘前集体走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>跌超2%；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌近4%，此前阿里云被暂停作为工信部网络安全威胁信息共享平台合作单位；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前涨超2%，特斯拉CEO马斯克12月21日出售583611股特斯拉股票，占其承诺出售的79.09%；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">黑莓</a>盘前跌近4%，2022财年三季度营收1.84亿美元，同比下降15.6％；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVA\">Cassava Sciences</a>盘前涨超3%，此前科学杂志发现针对Cassava 2005年论文中数据被操纵的指控不成立。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","TSLA":"特斯拉","BABA":"阿里巴巴","SAVA":"Cassava Sciences Inc","BB":"黑莓","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169676864","content_text":"12月22日，美股股指期货震荡走低，道指期货跌0.08%，纳指期货跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.19%。\n\n热门中概股盘前集体走低，哔哩哔哩、贝壳跌超3%，拼多多、京东、百度、滴滴跌超2%；\n阿里巴巴盘前跌近4%，此前阿里云被暂停作为工信部网络安全威胁信息共享平台合作单位；\n特斯拉盘前涨超2%，特斯拉CEO马斯克12月21日出售583611股特斯拉股票，占其承诺出售的79.09%；\n黑莓盘前跌近4%，2022财年三季度营收1.84亿美元，同比下降15.6％；\nCassava Sciences盘前涨超3%，此前科学杂志发现针对Cassava 2005年论文中数据被操纵的指控不成立。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"SAVA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875535445,"gmtCreate":1637667347480,"gmtModify":1637667347557,"author":{"id":"3579174887296019","authorId":"3579174887296019","name":"Dtaylol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4db06436bbfca20d5ed32c4bae80c72f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579174887296019","authorIdStr":"3579174887296019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875535445","repostId":"2185386788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864194396,"gmtCreate":1633068161888,"gmtModify":1633068162109,"author":{"id":"3579174887296019","authorId":"3579174887296019","name":"Dtaylol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4db06436bbfca20d5ed32c4bae80c72f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579174887296019","authorIdStr":"3579174887296019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864194396","repostId":"1124647688","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124647688","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633048079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124647688?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>称道琼斯指数为20,000点的教授表示，他对通胀趋势感到紧张，通胀趋势可能引发股市调整</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124647688","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, ","content":"<p>Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米·西格尔周三表示，通胀的新一轮飙升让他感到紧张，并警告称，加速的定价压力可能会迫使美联储以比目前更快的速度加息。预期，这可能会对股票基准进行修正。</blockquote></p><p> The Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000&nbsp;in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”</p><p><blockquote>这位被誉为2015年道琼斯指数20,000点的沃顿商学院教授在周三接受CNBC采访时表示，他“对我目前看到的通胀趋势感到紧张”。</blockquote></p><p> The academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位学者发表上述言论之际，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，由于零部件和材料短缺可能会恶化，美国的高通胀可能会持续到明年初。</blockquote></p><p> Parts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.</p><p><blockquote>部分金融市场价格正在经历大幅飙升，其中天然气期货NG00,+1.81%，周一飙升11%，达到2014年以来的最高水平，原因是美国供应紧张和全球需求走强。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Read:</b>Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years</p><p><blockquote><b>阅读：</b>美国通胀处于30年来最高水平</blockquote></p><p> <b>Also:</b>Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022</p><p><blockquote><b>所以：</b>美联储威廉姆斯预计2022年高通胀率将降温至2%</blockquote></p><p> “It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在与包括欧洲央行领导人在内的其他央行领导人举行的虚拟论坛上表示：“看到供应链问题没有好转令人沮丧，事实上它们可能会变得更糟。”“很难说在此期间的影响会有多大以及会持续多久。”</blockquote></p><p> The rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.</p><p><blockquote>使用美联储首选的个人消费支出价格指数，美国通胀率在截至7月份的12个月中以4.2%的速度上升。这是30年来最快的增长。根据更为人所知的消费者价格指数，通胀甚至更高，该指数衡量消费者为一篮子常见商品和服务支付的平均价格，是经济健康状况的晴雨表。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和美联储其他人几个月来一直辩称，通胀飙升是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> However, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师表示，这种观点正在开始转变，投资者开始考虑比之前想象的更持久的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Siegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔表示，美联储将于11月开始缩减规模，并于2022年年中结束，着眼于明年某个时候开始加息，这是一个公平的时间表，但他担心通胀飙升可能会加速举措，这将推动收益率上升和股市下跌。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500指数SPX,-1.19%收高，但仍较9月2日创纪录收盘价下跌3.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,-1.59%较8月16日创纪录高点下跌3.5%。盘中小幅上涨。科技含量高的纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.44%在周三收低后，较9月7日收盘峰值下跌5.6%。</blockquote></p><p> A correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员通常将资产的回调定义为较近期峰值下跌至少10%，但不超过20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，用于为从汽车贷款到抵押贷款等各种产品定价的基准10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y，1.504%，收益率为1.54%，高于周二的1.534%。根据道琼斯市场数据汇编的数据，该票据本季度迄今已上涨近10个基点，仅9月份就上涨了23.7个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Professor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>称道琼斯指数为20,000点的教授表示，他对通胀趋势感到紧张，通胀趋势可能引发股市调整</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nProfessor who called Dow 20,000 says he’s nervous about trends in inflation that could spark a stock-market correction<blockquote>称道琼斯指数为20,000点的教授表示，他对通胀趋势感到紧张，通胀趋势可能引发股市调整</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-01 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授杰里米·西格尔周三表示，通胀的新一轮飙升让他感到紧张，并警告称，加速的定价压力可能会迫使美联储以比目前更快的速度加息。预期，这可能会对股票基准进行修正。</blockquote></p><p> The Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000&nbsp;in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”</p><p><blockquote>这位被誉为2015年道琼斯指数20,000点的沃顿商学院教授在周三接受CNBC采访时表示，他“对我目前看到的通胀趋势感到紧张”。</blockquote></p><p> The academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.</p><p><blockquote>这位学者发表上述言论之际，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，由于零部件和材料短缺可能会恶化，美国的高通胀可能会持续到明年初。</blockquote></p><p> Parts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.</p><p><blockquote>部分金融市场价格正在经历大幅飙升，其中天然气期货NG00,+1.81%，周一飙升11%，达到2014年以来的最高水平，原因是美国供应紧张和全球需求走强。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Read:</b>Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years</p><p><blockquote><b>阅读：</b>美国通胀处于30年来最高水平</blockquote></p><p> <b>Also:</b>Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022</p><p><blockquote><b>所以：</b>美联储威廉姆斯预计2022年高通胀率将降温至2%</blockquote></p><p> “It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在与包括欧洲央行领导人在内的其他央行领导人举行的虚拟论坛上表示：“看到供应链问题没有好转令人沮丧，事实上它们可能会变得更糟。”“很难说在此期间的影响会有多大以及会持续多久。”</blockquote></p><p> The rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.</p><p><blockquote>使用美联储首选的个人消费支出价格指数，美国通胀率在截至7月份的12个月中以4.2%的速度上升。这是30年来最快的增长。根据更为人所知的消费者价格指数，通胀甚至更高，该指数衡量消费者为一篮子常见商品和服务支付的平均价格，是经济健康状况的晴雨表。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和美联储其他人几个月来一直辩称，通胀飙升是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> However, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师表示，这种观点正在开始转变，投资者开始考虑比之前想象的更持久的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Siegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>西格尔表示，美联储将于11月开始缩减规模，并于2022年年中结束，着眼于明年某个时候开始加息，这是一个公平的时间表，但他担心通胀飙升可能会加速举措，这将推动收益率上升和股市下跌。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，标普500指数SPX,-1.19%收高，但仍较9月2日创纪录收盘价下跌3.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,-1.59%较8月16日创纪录高点下跌3.5%。盘中小幅上涨。科技含量高的纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.44%在周三收低后，较9月7日收盘峰值下跌5.6%。</blockquote></p><p> A correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>市场技术人员通常将资产的回调定义为较近期峰值下跌至少10%，但不超过20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，用于为从汽车贷款到抵押贷款等各种产品定价的基准10年期国债TMUBMUSD10Y，1.504%，收益率为1.54%，高于周二的1.534%。根据道琼斯市场数据汇编的数据，该票据本季度迄今已上涨近10个基点，仅9月份就上涨了23.7个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/professor-who-called-dow-20-000-says-hes-nervous-about-trends-in-inflation-that-could-spark-a-stock-market-correction-11632949212?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1124647688","content_text":"Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Wednesday said that a fresh surge in inflation is making him nervous and warned that accelerating pricing pressures could compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than currently anticipated, which could deliver a correction to equity benchmarks.\nThe Wharton professorcredited with calling Dow 20,000 in 2015 told CNBC during a Wednesday interview that he is “nervous about the trends I see in inflation currently.”\nThe academic’s comments came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said a bout of high U.S. inflation could be prolonged into early next year because parts and material shortages might be getting worse.\nParts of the financial market are undergoing big price surges, including natural-gas futuresNG00,+1.81%,whichsurged 11% on Monday,reaching levels not seen since 2014 amid tight U.S. supplies and strengthening demand across the globe.\nRead:Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years\nAlso:Fed’s Williams predicts the high rate of inflation will cool to 2% in 2022\n“It’s frustrating to see the supply-chain problems not getting better, in fact they are probably getting worse,” Powell said during a virtual forum with other central bank leaders, including those from the European Central Bank. “It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime and how long they will last.”\nThe rate of inflation in the U.S., using the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose at a 4.2% pace in the 12 months ended in July. That is the fastest increase in 30 years. Inflation is running even hotter based on the better-known consumer-price index, a measure of the average prices paid by consumers for a common basket of goods and services that serves as a barometer of economic health.\nPowell and others at the Fed have contended for months that the surge in inflation was “transitory.”\nHowever, that view is starting to shift and investors are starting to factor in more persistent inflation than previously thought,analysts say.\nSiegel said the anticipated timeline that the Fed will start tapering in November and end it the middle of 2022, with an eye toward starting to raise interest rates sometime next year, is a fair timetable, but he but fears that the surge in inflation could hasten moves, which would drive yields higher and stocks lower.\nOn Wednesday, the S&P 500 indexSPX,-1.19%ended higher but was still down 3.9% from its Sept. 2 record close, and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.59%was off 3.5% from its Aug. 16 record high, following marginal gains on the session. The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-0.44%is down 5.6% from its Sept. 7 closing peak after finishing lower on Wednesday.\nA correction in an asset is usually defined by market technicians as a fall of at least 10%, but no more than 20%, from a recent peak.\nMeanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.504%,used to price everything from car loans to mortgages, yielded 1.54%, up from 1.534% on Tuesday. The note is up nearly 10 basis points so far this quarter and up 23.7 basis points in September alone, according data compiled by Dow Jones Market 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>up again...nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>up again...nice","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$up 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169056426","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187942038,"gmtCreate":1623737118224,"gmtModify":1631889584533,"author":{"id":"3579174887296019","authorId":"3579174887296019","name":"Dtaylol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4db06436bbfca20d5ed32c4bae80c72f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579174887296019","authorIdStr":"3579174887296019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187942038","repostId":"1138219989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138219989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623650085,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138219989?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议有何期待</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138219989","media":"Barrons","summary":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a","content":"<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会下周举行例行政策会议，分析师和投资者应该再次打破尼克松时代的陈词滥调，关注他们的言论，而不是他们的行动。每个人都想知道的是，该小组是否最终开始讨论放弃其超级宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p><p><blockquote>我们都知道，FOMC不会在其大规模证券购买方面采取任何实质性措施，目前仍以每月1200亿美元的速度运行。至于其关键的联邦基金利率目标，则停留在0%至0.25%（尽管美联储管理的其他一些利率有可能进行技术调整，以解决货币市场上流动的数十亿过剩现金）。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted&nbsp;on the Fed’s website&nbsp;at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p><p><blockquote>我们将寻找FOMC的正式政策声明和该小组最新的经济预测摘要中的内容，其中将包括委员会成员对国内生产总值、通胀和失业率等关键经济指标的猜测。最有可能的是，当该消息于下午2点发布在美联储网站上时。周三东部夏令时，大多数人可能会直接关注FOMC对联邦基金利率的猜测，特别是何时最终有望从接近零的利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p><p><blockquote>“点阵图”——或FOMC成员共识猜测的图表——将首次加息一直推迟到2023年之后。这似乎是一个非常长期的预测，正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）著名指出的那样，从长远来看，我们都死了。一些美联储观察人士，例如摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)，认为这些点表明2023年的经济起飞。</blockquote></p><p> The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for&nbsp;Natixis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经预计到2023年联邦基金将加息一次或多次。但在之前讨论的长期债券收益率下滑的同时，利率期货市场实际上已经消化了其中一次短期加息。此外，Natixis分析师表示，衍生品市场目前预计联邦基金利率将达到2%以下的峰值，比今年早些时候的定价低约0.4个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p><p><blockquote>早在加息之前，美联储就将开始通过放慢目前的证券购买步伐来减少宽松政策，其中包括每月800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券。根据美联储上周发布的新数据，美联储和其他央行创造的数万亿美元对提振资产价值大有帮助，第一季度资产价值增加了5万亿美元，达到136.9万亿美元。其中包括家庭持有的股票价值增加3.2万亿美元，房地产持有量增加9680亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p><p><blockquote>美联储宽松政策减少的关键标准是货币当局是否认为在实现他们认为的最大就业方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”，这可能是一个故意模糊的标准。</blockquote></p><p> But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed&nbsp;a record 9.3 million unfilled openings&nbsp;in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p><p><blockquote>但就业人数的增长似乎既受到劳动力供应的限制，也受到企业招聘意愿的限制。最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（Jolts）显示，4月份有创纪录的930万个职位空缺。此外，当月有38.4万人离职，自愿离职人数达到创纪录的400万人。</blockquote></p><p> Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p><p><blockquote>轶事证据，包括美联储为即将召开的会议准备的经济状况褐皮书总结中的一些证据，表明由于慷慨的失业补偿，雇主没有找到足够的工人。对于经济学等社会科学来说，不同寻常的是，随着25个州提前结束每周额外支付300美元的费用，将会有一个实时实验来检验这一假设。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons在一份研究报告中写道，这25个州约占所有失业工人的四分之一。他们估计，终止额外的失业救济金可能会在未来几个月内增加大约200万人的就业机会。在其余州的额外失业保险到期后，9月和10月应该会出现另一次井喷式增长；学校重新开放——为一些潜在工人，尤其是女性提供免费日托；他们补充说，许多上班族回到了办公桌前。</blockquote></p><p> At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p><p><blockquote>到那时，美联储可能会开始谈论实际减少大规模证券购买。鉴于美联储在2013年放缓债券购买时市场引发的“缩减恐慌”，本届美联储将希望披露其计划如何、何时以及以多快的速度放缓注入潘趣酒碗。这就是我们本周要听的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议有何期待</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting<blockquote>本周美联储会议有何期待</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 13:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会下周举行例行政策会议，分析师和投资者应该再次打破尼克松时代的陈词滥调，关注他们的言论，而不是他们的行动。每个人都想知道的是，该小组是否最终开始讨论放弃其超级宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p><p><blockquote>我们都知道，FOMC不会在其大规模证券购买方面采取任何实质性措施，目前仍以每月1200亿美元的速度运行。至于其关键的联邦基金利率目标，则停留在0%至0.25%（尽管美联储管理的其他一些利率有可能进行技术调整，以解决货币市场上流动的数十亿过剩现金）。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted&nbsp;on the Fed’s website&nbsp;at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p><p><blockquote>我们将寻找FOMC的正式政策声明和该小组最新的经济预测摘要中的内容，其中将包括委员会成员对国内生产总值、通胀和失业率等关键经济指标的猜测。最有可能的是，当该消息于下午2点发布在美联储网站上时。周三东部夏令时，大多数人可能会直接关注FOMC对联邦基金利率的猜测，特别是何时最终有望从接近零的利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p><p><blockquote>“点阵图”——或FOMC成员共识猜测的图表——将首次加息一直推迟到2023年之后。这似乎是一个非常长期的预测，正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）著名指出的那样，从长远来看，我们都死了。一些美联储观察人士，例如摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)，认为这些点表明2023年的经济起飞。</blockquote></p><p> The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for&nbsp;Natixis.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场已经预计到2023年联邦基金将加息一次或多次。但在之前讨论的长期债券收益率下滑的同时，利率期货市场实际上已经消化了其中一次短期加息。此外，Natixis分析师表示，衍生品市场目前预计联邦基金利率将达到2%以下的峰值，比今年早些时候的定价低约0.4个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p><p><blockquote>早在加息之前，美联储就将开始通过放慢目前的证券购买步伐来减少宽松政策，其中包括每月800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券。根据美联储上周发布的新数据，美联储和其他央行创造的数万亿美元对提振资产价值大有帮助，第一季度资产价值增加了5万亿美元，达到136.9万亿美元。其中包括家庭持有的股票价值增加3.2万亿美元，房地产持有量增加9680亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p><p><blockquote>美联储宽松政策减少的关键标准是货币当局是否认为在实现他们认为的最大就业方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”，这可能是一个故意模糊的标准。</blockquote></p><p> But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed&nbsp;a record 9.3 million unfilled openings&nbsp;in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p><p><blockquote>但就业人数的增长似乎既受到劳动力供应的限制，也受到企业招聘意愿的限制。最新的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（Jolts）显示，4月份有创纪录的930万个职位空缺。此外，当月有38.4万人离职，自愿离职人数达到创纪录的400万人。</blockquote></p><p> Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p><p><blockquote>轶事证据，包括美联储为即将召开的会议准备的经济状况褐皮书总结中的一些证据，表明由于慷慨的失业补偿，雇主没有找到足够的工人。对于经济学等社会科学来说，不同寻常的是，随着25个州提前结束每周额外支付300美元的费用，将会有一个实时实验来检验这一假设。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons在一份研究报告中写道，这25个州约占所有失业工人的四分之一。他们估计，终止额外的失业救济金可能会在未来几个月内增加大约200万人的就业机会。在其余州的额外失业保险到期后，9月和10月应该会出现另一次井喷式增长；学校重新开放——为一些潜在工人，尤其是女性提供免费日托；他们补充说，许多上班族回到了办公桌前。</blockquote></p><p> At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p><p><blockquote>到那时，美联储可能会开始谈论实际减少大规模证券购买。鉴于美联储在2013年放缓债券购买时市场引发的“缩减恐慌”，本届美联储将希望披露其计划如何、何时以及以多快的速度放缓注入潘趣酒碗。这就是我们本周要听的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138219989","content_text":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.\nWe all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).\nWe’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.\nThe “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.\nThe markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.\nLong before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.\nThe key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.\nBut the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.\nAnecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.\nJefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.\nAt that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}