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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-29
  Nice
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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-28
  Nice.
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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-27
  Thanks
  Wall Street Bets S&P 500 Will Say Goodbye to Outsize Stock Gains in 2022<blockquote>华尔街押注标普500将在2022年告别股价大幅上涨</blockquote>
  U.S. stocks are on track to end 2021 with another year of outsize gains. Many investors aren’t expec
  Wall Street Bets S&P 500 Will Say Goodbye to Outsize Stock Gains in 2022<blockquote>华尔街押注标普500将在2022年告别股价大幅上涨</blockquote>
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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-26
  Time to short those too lol
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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-25
  Comment
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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-24
  More money for the ones at the top to rip off
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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-23
  Yay
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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-22
  Let go
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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-21
  Comment
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- 31274cd131274cd1
  ·2021-12-20
  Ok
  Equifax to Add More ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Plans to Credit Reports<blockquote>Equifax将在信用报告中添加更多“先买后付”计划</blockquote>
  Short-term payment plans for small-ticket items are growing quickly, creating a blind spot for lende
  Equifax to Add More ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Plans to Credit Reports<blockquote>Equifax将在信用报告中添加更多“先买后付”计划</blockquote>
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07:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Bets S&P 500 Will Say Goodbye to Outsize Stock Gains in 2022<blockquote>华尔街押注标普500将在2022年告别股价大幅上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152446317","media":"WSJ","summary":"U.S. stocks are on track to end 2021 with another year of outsize gains. Many investors aren’t expec","content":"<p>U.S. stocks are on track to end 2021 with another year of outsize gains. Many investors aren’t expecting a repeat in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市有望在2021年结束时迎来又一年的大幅上涨。许多投资者预计2022年不会重演。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has climbed 26% so far in 2021, after rising 16% in 2020. Rip-roaring corporate profits and easy monetary policy have fueled the run. Earnings growth is expected to moderate next year, and the Federal Reserve is pursuing&nbsp;plans to raise interest rates, chipping away at key supports for the stock market’s rally.</p><p><blockquote>标普500在2020年上涨16%后，2021年迄今已上涨26%。飙升的企业利润和宽松的货币政策推动了这一挤兑。预计明年盈利增长将放缓，美联储正在推行加息计划，削弱了股市上涨的关键支撑。</blockquote></p><p> When rates are low, investors tend to load up on risk assets such as stocks to generate returns. When inflation accelerates and policy makers raise interest rates, the value of companies’ future earnings drops and investors have more alternatives for places to make money.</p><p><blockquote>当利率较低时，投资者往往会买入股票等风险资产以产生回报。当通胀加速和政策制定者加息时，公司未来盈利的价值会下降，投资者有更多赚钱的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Rock-bottom interest rates early in 2020 helped propel equity valuations higher, and they have remained elevated in the months since. Many analysts and investors now believe that increasing rates are likely to keep valuations from rising further, and might cause them to fall.</p><p><blockquote>2020年初的最低利率帮助推高了股票估值，并且在此后的几个月里一直保持在高位。许多分析师和投资者现在认为，加息可能会阻止估值进一步上升，并可能导致估值下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Though stock indexes often continue to rise early in a cycle of interest-rate increases, tighter monetary policy puts portfolio managers on a shorter leash and makes many of them guarded about taking on more risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管股指往往在加息周期的早期继续上涨，但收紧的货币政策使投资组合经理受到更短的约束，并使他们中的许多人对承担更多风险持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> “We know there’s going to be a rate hike,” said Tiffany Wade, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “How soon before that do you start to position around valuations maybe coming off?”</p><p><blockquote>Columbia Threadneedle Investments高级投资组合经理蒂芙尼·韦德(Tiffany Wade)表示：“我们知道将会加息。”“在此之前，你多久会开始围绕估值可能会下降进行定位？”</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 traded last week at about 21 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little less than 19 times, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，这家标普500上周的市盈率约为未来12个月预期市盈率的21倍，高于略低于19倍的五年平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Some strategists think the shift in monetary policy could help limit stock gains to levels more in keeping with their long-term trend. The S&amp;P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 8.4% from 1957, the year it was introduced, through last year. But it is coming off three much stronger years. The index jumped 29% in 2019, even more than its advances in 2020 and so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一些策略师认为，货币政策的转变可能有助于将股市涨幅限制在更符合长期趋势的水平。从1957年推出到去年，标普500的平均年增长率为8.4%。但这三年表现强劲得多。该指数在2019年上涨了29%，甚至超过了2020年和2021年迄今为止的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s not normal,” said Joseph Amato, president and chief investment officer of equities at asset manager Neuberger Berman. “That’s been an extraordinary period of return, and our expectation is you’re not going to see that kind of market performance in ’22.”</p><p><blockquote>“这不正常，”资产管理公司路博迈(Neuberger Berman)总裁兼首席股票投资官约瑟夫·阿马托(Joseph Amato)表示。“这是一个非凡的回报时期，我们的预期是，22年你不会看到这样的市场表现。”</blockquote></p><p> There is reason, of course, to be humble about stock predictions: Analysts can’t forecast world events, or even how the market will react to them. Many analysts thought stocks would plunge throughout 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the U.S. A year ago, analysts underestimated the strength of the market’s 2021 rally.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们有理由对股票预测保持谦虚：分析师无法预测世界事件，甚至无法预测市场对这些事件的反应。许多分析师认为，在Covid-19大流行袭击美国后，股市将在2020年全年暴跌。一年前，分析师低估了市场2021年反弹的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “One year is such a short period that it’s really hard to accurately forecast where stocks will be in a year from now,” said Aneet Chachra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors投资组合经理Aneet Chachra表示：“一年的时间很短，很难准确预测一年后股市的走势。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, many of the structures that have supported the market will fade next year. Gains in 2020 and 2021 have been propped up by government spending and central-bank interventions, including the near-zero interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多支撑市场的结构将在明年消退。2020年和2021年的收益受到政府支出和央行干预（包括接近零的利率）的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> This month the Fed laid the groundwork for&nbsp;interest-rate increases&nbsp;starting as early as next spring and approved plans to wind down a bond-buying stimulus program more quickly. Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion&nbsp;education, healthcare and climate package&nbsp;faces an uncertain future after Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) said last week he would oppose it.</p><p><blockquote>本月，美联储为最早于明年春天开始的加息奠定了基础，并批准了更快结束债券购买刺激计划的计划。民主党大约2万亿美元的教育、医疗和气候一揽子计划面临着不确定的未来，此前西弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员乔·曼钦（Joe Manchin）上周表示他将反对该计划。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street strategists are forecasting smaller gains for the S&amp;P 500 in 2022. Among 13 banks and financial services firms whose analysts have published 2022 forecasts, the average target for the S&amp;P 500 to end next year is 4940, about 4.5% above where the index closed Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街策略师预测，2022年标普500的涨幅将较小。在分析师已发布2022年预测的13家银行和金融服务公司中，明年结束的标普500的平均目标为4940点，比该指数周四收盘价高出约4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> On the high end of next year’s projections, strategists at BMO Capital Markets are forecasting the S&amp;P 500 will finish 2022 at 5300, 12% above its current level. The BMO team expects company earnings growth will help push stocks higher.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Capital Markets的策略师预测，2022年标普500将达到5300点，比当前水平高出12%。BMO团队预计公司盈利增长将有助于推高股价。</blockquote></p><p> Strategists at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said their central scenario was for the S&amp;P 500 to end the year at 4400, a drop of 6.9%. They expect price/earnings multiples to fall next year as bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利策略师表示，他们的核心预期是标普500年底将跌至4400点，跌幅为6.9%。他们预计，随着债券收益率上升，明年的市盈率将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Slimmed-down valuations would be especially significant for a stock index such as the S&amp;P 500, since it is&nbsp;driven by big tech stocks&nbsp;that often trade at high multiples.Microsoft&nbsp;Corp.,Nvidia&nbsp;Corp.,Apple&nbsp;Inc.,Alphabet&nbsp;Inc.andTeslaInc.recently accounted for about one-third of the benchmark’s gains this year. Tesla traded last week at about 123 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, while Nvidia traded at about 58 times.</p><p><blockquote>对于标普500这样的股指来说，估值下调尤其重要，因为它是由大型科技股推动的，这些科技股通常以高市盈率交易。微软公司、英伟达公司、苹果公司、Alphabet公司和特斯拉公司最近约占该基准今年涨幅的三分之一。特斯拉上周的市盈率约为未来12个月预期市盈率的123倍，而英伟达的市盈率约为58倍。</blockquote></p><p> Profits at big U.S. companies are expected to grow next year, though at a slower pace than this year’s surge. Analysts estimate that earnings from S&amp;P 500 companies will rise 9.2% in 2022, according to FactSet, down from the predicted 45% profit growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>美国大公司的利润预计明年将增长，尽管增速低于今年的飙升。FactSet的数据显示，分析师预计2022年标普500公司的盈利将增长9.2%，低于2021年45%的利润增长预测。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Still, many investors said that earnings are a reason to be confident that the market rally can last.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多投资者表示，盈利是对市场反弹能够持续充满信心的一个理由。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to find a lot of things that can go wrong,” said Steve Kolano, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Investor Solutions. “At the end of the day, earnings drive the equity markets.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行投资者解决方案首席投资官史蒂夫·科拉诺表示：“很容易发现很多可能出错的地方。”“归根结底，盈利推动股市。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Bets S&P 500 Will Say Goodbye to Outsize Stock Gains in 2022<blockquote>华尔街押注标普500将在2022年告别股价大幅上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Bets S&P 500 Will Say Goodbye to Outsize Stock Gains in 2022<blockquote>华尔街押注标普500将在2022年告别股价大幅上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 07:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks are on track to end 2021 with another year of outsize gains. Many investors aren’t expecting a repeat in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市有望在2021年结束时迎来又一年的大幅上涨。许多投资者预计2022年不会重演。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has climbed 26% so far in 2021, after rising 16% in 2020. Rip-roaring corporate profits and easy monetary policy have fueled the run. Earnings growth is expected to moderate next year, and the Federal Reserve is pursuing&nbsp;plans to raise interest rates, chipping away at key supports for the stock market’s rally.</p><p><blockquote>标普500在2020年上涨16%后，2021年迄今已上涨26%。飙升的企业利润和宽松的货币政策推动了这一挤兑。预计明年盈利增长将放缓，美联储正在推行加息计划，削弱了股市上涨的关键支撑。</blockquote></p><p> When rates are low, investors tend to load up on risk assets such as stocks to generate returns. When inflation accelerates and policy makers raise interest rates, the value of companies’ future earnings drops and investors have more alternatives for places to make money.</p><p><blockquote>当利率较低时，投资者往往会买入股票等风险资产以产生回报。当通胀加速和政策制定者加息时，公司未来盈利的价值会下降，投资者有更多赚钱的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Rock-bottom interest rates early in 2020 helped propel equity valuations higher, and they have remained elevated in the months since. Many analysts and investors now believe that increasing rates are likely to keep valuations from rising further, and might cause them to fall.</p><p><blockquote>2020年初的最低利率帮助推高了股票估值，并且在此后的几个月里一直保持在高位。许多分析师和投资者现在认为，加息可能会阻止估值进一步上升，并可能导致估值下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Though stock indexes often continue to rise early in a cycle of interest-rate increases, tighter monetary policy puts portfolio managers on a shorter leash and makes many of them guarded about taking on more risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管股指往往在加息周期的早期继续上涨，但收紧的货币政策使投资组合经理受到更短的约束，并使他们中的许多人对承担更多风险持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> “We know there’s going to be a rate hike,” said Tiffany Wade, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “How soon before that do you start to position around valuations maybe coming off?”</p><p><blockquote>Columbia Threadneedle Investments高级投资组合经理蒂芙尼·韦德(Tiffany Wade)表示：“我们知道将会加息。”“在此之前，你多久会开始围绕估值可能会下降进行定位？”</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 traded last week at about 21 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little less than 19 times, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，这家标普500上周的市盈率约为未来12个月预期市盈率的21倍，高于略低于19倍的五年平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Some strategists think the shift in monetary policy could help limit stock gains to levels more in keeping with their long-term trend. The S&amp;P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 8.4% from 1957, the year it was introduced, through last year. But it is coming off three much stronger years. The index jumped 29% in 2019, even more than its advances in 2020 and so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一些策略师认为，货币政策的转变可能有助于将股市涨幅限制在更符合长期趋势的水平。从1957年推出到去年，标普500的平均年增长率为8.4%。但这三年表现强劲得多。该指数在2019年上涨了29%，甚至超过了2020年和2021年迄今为止的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s not normal,” said Joseph Amato, president and chief investment officer of equities at asset manager Neuberger Berman. “That’s been an extraordinary period of return, and our expectation is you’re not going to see that kind of market performance in ’22.”</p><p><blockquote>“这不正常，”资产管理公司路博迈(Neuberger Berman)总裁兼首席股票投资官约瑟夫·阿马托(Joseph Amato)表示。“这是一个非凡的回报时期，我们的预期是，22年你不会看到这样的市场表现。”</blockquote></p><p> There is reason, of course, to be humble about stock predictions: Analysts can’t forecast world events, or even how the market will react to them. Many analysts thought stocks would plunge throughout 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the U.S. A year ago, analysts underestimated the strength of the market’s 2021 rally.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们有理由对股票预测保持谦虚：分析师无法预测世界事件，甚至无法预测市场对这些事件的反应。许多分析师认为，在Covid-19大流行袭击美国后，股市将在2020年全年暴跌。一年前，分析师低估了市场2021年反弹的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “One year is such a short period that it’s really hard to accurately forecast where stocks will be in a year from now,” said Aneet Chachra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors投资组合经理Aneet Chachra表示：“一年的时间很短，很难准确预测一年后股市的走势。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, many of the structures that have supported the market will fade next year. Gains in 2020 and 2021 have been propped up by government spending and central-bank interventions, including the near-zero interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多支撑市场的结构将在明年消退。2020年和2021年的收益受到政府支出和央行干预（包括接近零的利率）的支撑。</blockquote></p><p> This month the Fed laid the groundwork for&nbsp;interest-rate increases&nbsp;starting as early as next spring and approved plans to wind down a bond-buying stimulus program more quickly. Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion&nbsp;education, healthcare and climate package&nbsp;faces an uncertain future after Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) said last week he would oppose it.</p><p><blockquote>本月，美联储为最早于明年春天开始的加息奠定了基础，并批准了更快结束债券购买刺激计划的计划。民主党大约2万亿美元的教育、医疗和气候一揽子计划面临着不确定的未来，此前西弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员乔·曼钦（Joe Manchin）上周表示他将反对该计划。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street strategists are forecasting smaller gains for the S&amp;P 500 in 2022. Among 13 banks and financial services firms whose analysts have published 2022 forecasts, the average target for the S&amp;P 500 to end next year is 4940, about 4.5% above where the index closed Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街策略师预测，2022年标普500的涨幅将较小。在分析师已发布2022年预测的13家银行和金融服务公司中，明年结束的标普500的平均目标为4940点，比该指数周四收盘价高出约4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> On the high end of next year’s projections, strategists at BMO Capital Markets are forecasting the S&amp;P 500 will finish 2022 at 5300, 12% above its current level. The BMO team expects company earnings growth will help push stocks higher.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Capital Markets的策略师预测，2022年标普500将达到5300点，比当前水平高出12%。BMO团队预计公司盈利增长将有助于推高股价。</blockquote></p><p> Strategists at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said their central scenario was for the S&amp;P 500 to end the year at 4400, a drop of 6.9%. They expect price/earnings multiples to fall next year as bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根士丹利策略师表示，他们的核心预期是标普500年底将跌至4400点，跌幅为6.9%。他们预计，随着债券收益率上升，明年的市盈率将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Slimmed-down valuations would be especially significant for a stock index such as the S&amp;P 500, since it is&nbsp;driven by big tech stocks&nbsp;that often trade at high multiples.Microsoft&nbsp;Corp.,Nvidia&nbsp;Corp.,Apple&nbsp;Inc.,Alphabet&nbsp;Inc.andTeslaInc.recently accounted for about one-third of the benchmark’s gains this year. Tesla traded last week at about 123 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, while Nvidia traded at about 58 times.</p><p><blockquote>对于标普500这样的股指来说，估值下调尤其重要，因为它是由大型科技股推动的，这些科技股通常以高市盈率交易。微软公司、英伟达公司、苹果公司、Alphabet公司和特斯拉公司最近约占该基准今年涨幅的三分之一。特斯拉上周的市盈率约为未来12个月预期市盈率的123倍，而英伟达的市盈率约为58倍。</blockquote></p><p> Profits at big U.S. companies are expected to grow next year, though at a slower pace than this year’s surge. Analysts estimate that earnings from S&amp;P 500 companies will rise 9.2% in 2022, according to FactSet, down from the predicted 45% profit growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>美国大公司的利润预计明年将增长，尽管增速低于今年的飙升。FactSet的数据显示，分析师预计2022年标普500公司的盈利将增长9.2%，低于2021年45%的利润增长预测。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Still, many investors said that earnings are a reason to be confident that the market rally can last.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多投资者表示，盈利是对市场反弹能够持续充满信心的一个理由。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s easy to find a lot of things that can go wrong,” said Steve Kolano, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Investor Solutions. “At the end of the day, earnings drive the equity markets.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行投资者解决方案首席投资官史蒂夫·科拉诺表示：“很容易发现很多可能出错的地方。”“归根结底，盈利推动股市。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-bets-s-p-500-will-say-goodbye-to-outsize-stock-gains-in-2022-11640514607?mod=hp_lead_pos3\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果","GOOG":"谷歌","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-bets-s-p-500-will-say-goodbye-to-outsize-stock-gains-in-2022-11640514607?mod=hp_lead_pos3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152446317","content_text":"U.S. stocks are on track to end 2021 with another year of outsize gains. Many investors aren’t expecting a repeat in 2022.\nThe S&P 500 has climbed 26% so far in 2021, after rising 16% in 2020. Rip-roaring corporate profits and easy monetary policy have fueled the run. Earnings growth is expected to moderate next year, and the Federal Reserve is pursuing plans to raise interest rates, chipping away at key supports for the stock market’s rally.\nWhen rates are low, investors tend to load up on risk assets such as stocks to generate returns. When inflation accelerates and policy makers raise interest rates, the value of companies’ future earnings drops and investors have more alternatives for places to make money.\nRock-bottom interest rates early in 2020 helped propel equity valuations higher, and they have remained elevated in the months since. Many analysts and investors now believe that increasing rates are likely to keep valuations from rising further, and might cause them to fall.\nThough stock indexes often continue to rise early in a cycle of interest-rate increases, tighter monetary policy puts portfolio managers on a shorter leash and makes many of them guarded about taking on more risk.\n“We know there’s going to be a rate hike,” said Tiffany Wade, senior portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. “How soon before that do you start to position around valuations maybe coming off?”\nThe S&P 500 traded last week at about 21 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, above a five-year average of a little less than 19 times, according to FactSet.\nSome strategists think the shift in monetary policy could help limit stock gains to levels more in keeping with their long-term trend. The S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 8.4% from 1957, the year it was introduced, through last year. But it is coming off three much stronger years. The index jumped 29% in 2019, even more than its advances in 2020 and so far in 2021.\n“That’s not normal,” said Joseph Amato, president and chief investment officer of equities at asset manager Neuberger Berman. “That’s been an extraordinary period of return, and our expectation is you’re not going to see that kind of market performance in ’22.”\nThere is reason, of course, to be humble about stock predictions: Analysts can’t forecast world events, or even how the market will react to them. Many analysts thought stocks would plunge throughout 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the U.S. A year ago, analysts underestimated the strength of the market’s 2021 rally.\n“One year is such a short period that it’s really hard to accurately forecast where stocks will be in a year from now,” said Aneet Chachra, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.\nStill, many of the structures that have supported the market will fade next year. Gains in 2020 and 2021 have been propped up by government spending and central-bank interventions, including the near-zero interest rates.\nThis month the Fed laid the groundwork for interest-rate increases starting as early as next spring and approved plans to wind down a bond-buying stimulus program more quickly. Democrats’ roughly $2 trillion education, healthcare and climate package faces an uncertain future after Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) said last week he would oppose it.\nWall Street strategists are forecasting smaller gains for the S&P 500 in 2022. Among 13 banks and financial services firms whose analysts have published 2022 forecasts, the average target for the S&P 500 to end next year is 4940, about 4.5% above where the index closed Thursday.\nOn the high end of next year’s projections, strategists at BMO Capital Markets are forecasting the S&P 500 will finish 2022 at 5300, 12% above its current level. The BMO team expects company earnings growth will help push stocks higher.\nStrategists at Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, said their central scenario was for the S&P 500 to end the year at 4400, a drop of 6.9%. They expect price/earnings multiples to fall next year as bond yields rise.\nSlimmed-down valuations would be especially significant for a stock index such as the S&P 500, since it is driven by big tech stocks that often trade at high multiples.Microsoft Corp.,Nvidia Corp.,Apple Inc.,Alphabet Inc.andTeslaInc.recently accounted for about one-third of the benchmark’s gains this year. Tesla traded last week at about 123 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, while Nvidia traded at about 58 times.\nProfits at big U.S. companies are expected to grow next year, though at a slower pace than this year’s surge. Analysts estimate that earnings from S&P 500 companies will rise 9.2% in 2022, according to FactSet, down from the predicted 45% profit growth in 2021.\nStill, many investors said that earnings are a reason to be confident that the market rally can last.\n“It’s easy to find a lot of things that can go wrong,” said Steve Kolano, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Investor Solutions. “At the end of the day, earnings drive the equity markets.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698469414,"gmtCreate":1640495978376,"gmtModify":1640495978547,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"31274cd1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578040476775865","idStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to short those too lol","listText":"Time to short those too lol","text":"Time to short those too lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698469414","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698231642,"gmtCreate":1640401144929,"gmtModify":1640401145099,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"31274cd1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578040476775865","idStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698231642","repostId":"1156159690","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698356993,"gmtCreate":1640309516020,"gmtModify":1640310780363,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"31274cd1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578040476775865","idStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More money for the ones at the top to rip off","listText":"More money for the ones at the top to rip off","text":"More money for the ones at the top to rip off","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698356993","repostId":"2193283301","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691598908,"gmtCreate":1640218203476,"gmtModify":1640218203679,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"31274cd1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578040476775865","idStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yay","listText":"Yay","text":"Yay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691598908","repostId":"2193511315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691948880,"gmtCreate":1640130738442,"gmtModify":1640130738601,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"31274cd1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578040476775865","idStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let go","listText":"Let go","text":"Let go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691948880","repostId":"2193663561","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693593269,"gmtCreate":1640047213668,"gmtModify":1640047213857,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"31274cd1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578040476775865","idStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693593269","repostId":"1184187118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693995815,"gmtCreate":1639958523534,"gmtModify":1639958523680,"author":{"id":"3578040476775865","authorId":"3578040476775865","name":"31274cd1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578040476775865","idStr":"3578040476775865"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693995815","repostId":"1153903024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153903024","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639955984,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153903024?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 07:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Equifax to Add More ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Plans to Credit Reports<blockquote>Equifax将在信用报告中添加更多“先买后付”计划</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153903024","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Short-term payment plans for small-ticket items are growing quickly, creating a blind spot for lende","content":"<p>Short-term payment plans for small-ticket items are growing quickly, creating a blind spot for lenders</p><p><blockquote>小额项目的短期付款计划增长迅速，给贷方带来了盲点</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ece6d96b441ee27bfda58fca9763be17\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Early next year, Equifax will begin recording ‘pay-in-4’ installment plans on people’s credit reports.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>明年初，Equifax将开始在人们的信用报告中记录“4次付款”分期付款计划。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A popular kind of “buy now, pay later” plan is coming to credit reports.</p><p><blockquote>一种流行的“先买后付”计划即将出现在信用报告中。</blockquote></p><p> Early next year,Equifax&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;will begin recording installment plans that allow shoppers to make four biweekly payments instead of covering the full cost at checkout. The move is meant to give lenders a fuller picture of people’s financial commitments, including how much they owe on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>明年初，Equifax Inc.将开始记录分期付款计划，允许购物者每两周一次付款，而不是在结账时支付全部费用。此举旨在让贷方更全面地了解人们的财务承诺，包括他们在这些计划中欠了多少钱。</blockquote></p><p> These “pay-in-4” plans have exploded in popularity in recent years. They are often used for small-ticket items such as clothing and makeup and are typically billed directly to a shopper’s debit or credit card. A $200 shopping trip, for example, requires $50 upfront and three more $50 payments billed every two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，这些“四次付费”计划大受欢迎。它们通常用于服装和化妆品等小额商品，通常直接记入购物者的借记卡或信用卡。例如，一次200美元的购物旅行需要预付50美元，每两周再支付三次50美元的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Buy now, pay later is booming&nbsp;in the U.S. High-end and discount retailers alike&nbsp;offer the plans at checkout&nbsp;online. Some merchants also offer them in stores. But the plans often don’t show up on credit reports, creating a blind spot for lenders that use the information on the reports to gauge an applicant’s ability to repay.</p><p><blockquote>“先买后付”在美国正在蓬勃发展。高端零售商和折扣零售商都提供在线结账计划。一些商家也在商店里提供。但这些计划通常不会出现在信用报告上，这给使用报告上的信息来衡量申请人还款能力的贷方造成了盲点。</blockquote></p><p> “Responsible lending benefits from a complete picture of a person’s financial obligations,” said Equifax Chief Executive Mark Begor.</p><p><blockquote>Equifax首席执行官马克·贝戈尔(Mark Begor)表示：“负责任的贷款受益于对个人财务义务的完整了解。”</blockquote></p><p> Billions of dollars of obligations go unreported. Buy now, pay later company&nbsp;Afterpay&nbsp;Ltd., for example, did $9.8 billion in pay-in-4 plans in North America during the 12 months ended June 30, more than double a year earlier. Klarna Bank AB transactions during the first half of the year in the U.S. totaled $3.2 billion, up from $722 million during the same period in 2020. The majority are pay-in-4 plans.</p><p><blockquote>数十亿美元的债务没有被报告。例如，先买后付公司Afterpay Ltd.在截至6月30日的12个月内，在北美的四期付款计划中完成了98亿美元，是一年前的两倍多。Klarna Bank AB今年上半年在美国的交易总额为32亿美元，高于2020年同期的7.22亿美元。大多数是四次付费计划。</blockquote></p><p> The payment plans are small—the average Afterpay transaction is $150—but they can add up if shoppers use them frequently.</p><p><blockquote>付款计划规模很小——平均Afterpay交易为150美元——但如果购物者经常使用它们，它们可以累积起来。</blockquote></p><p> Credit-reporting firms have faced technical challenges adding short-term installment plans to credit reports. Most credit reports aren’t set up to display biweekly payments. And there is often a lag between when consumers open accounts and when lenders send that information for inclusion in people’s credit reports. The lag can outlast a fast repayment period.</p><p><blockquote>信用报告公司在信用报告中添加短期分期付款计划时面临着技术挑战。大多数信用报告并未设置为显示每两周付款一次。消费者开设账户和贷方发送该信息以纳入人们的信用报告之间通常存在滞后。这种滞后可能会超过快速还款期。</blockquote></p><p> Some buy now, pay later installment loans for big-ticket items are recorded on credit reports in the same section as personal loans. Far fewer of these smaller, short-term plans, which in most cases don’t require credit checks, are reflected in credit reports.</p><p><blockquote>一些先买后付的大件商品分期贷款与个人贷款记录在信用报告的同一部分。这些规模较小的短期计划（在大多数情况下不需要信用检查）很少反映在信用报告中。</blockquote></p><p> TransUnion&nbsp;said it doesn’t include these plans on its credit reports but is working with buy now, pay later companies to enable reporting next year. A small number of buy now, pay later companies submit information about these plans to&nbsp;Experian&nbsp;PLC, which then includes that data in credit reports. Experian is working with buy now, pay later firms to add more of this information to its reports.</p><p><blockquote>TransUnion表示，它没有将这些计划纳入其信用报告中，但正在与“先买后付”公司合作，以便明年进行报告。少数先买后付的公司向Experian plc提交有关这些计划的信息，然后Experian plc将这些数据包含在信用报告中。益百利正在与“先买后付”公司合作，在其报告中添加更多此类信息。</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay and Klarna, two of the biggest players in the business, don’t report their pay-in-4 plans to U.S. credit-reporting firms.Affirm Holdings&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;said it reports the full payment history of some of its loans, including on-time payments and delinquencies. The company doesn’t report its pay-in-4 product. All three said they have been talking to the firms about potentially reporting these plans.</p><p><blockquote>该行业最大的两家公司Afterpay和Klarna不向美国信用报告公司报告其4期付款计划。Affirm Holdings Inc.表示，它报告了部分贷款的完整付款历史记录，包括按时付款和拖欠。该公司没有报告其pay-in-4产品。三人都表示，他们一直在与这些公司讨论报告这些计划的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> One stumbling block: The frequent opening and closing of accounts can drag down credit scores. The buy now, pay later companies want to make sure customers who pay their bills on time aren’t penalized for frequent use of their short-term payment plans.</p><p><blockquote>一个绊脚石：频繁开户和关闭账户会拖累信用评分。“先买后付”公司希望确保按时支付账单的客户不会因频繁使用短期付款计划而受到惩罚。</blockquote></p><p> Equifax will add the pay-in-4 data to credit reports beginning at the end of February. Both positive and negative information, on-time payments and defaults, will be included in reports and reflected in consumers’ credit scores, Equifax said.</p><p><blockquote>Equifax将从2月底开始将pay-in-4数据添加到信用报告中。Equifax表示，正面和负面信息（按时付款和违约）都将包含在报告中，并反映在消费者的信用评分中。</blockquote></p><p> Buy now, pay later plans are especially popular among people with limited credit histories who don’t qualify for credit cards or other traditional credit. These consumers, Equifax said, should get a boost from the plans’ inclusion on credit reports if they pay their bills on time.</p><p><blockquote>“先买后付”计划在信用记录有限、没有资格获得信用卡或其他传统信贷的人中特别受欢迎。Equifax表示，如果这些消费者按时支付账单，将这些计划纳入信用报告应该会得到提振。</blockquote></p><p> People who have thin credit files or who have no more than two years of credit history saw an average FICO credit-score increase of 21 points, according to an Equifax study, compared with an average of 13 points for the typical borrower.</p><p><blockquote>根据Equifax的一项研究，信用档案薄弱或信用记录不超过两年的人的FICO信用评分平均增加了21分，而典型借款人的平均增加了13分。</blockquote></p><p> The credit report will include when the payment plan was opened, the scheduled payment the consumer has agreed to make and the actual payment that is made.</p><p><blockquote>信用报告将包括付款计划打开的时间、消费者同意支付的预定付款以及实际支付的款项。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Equifax to Add More ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Plans to Credit Reports<blockquote>Equifax将在信用报告中添加更多“先买后付”计划</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEquifax to Add More ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Plans to Credit Reports<blockquote>Equifax将在信用报告中添加更多“先买后付”计划</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 07:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Short-term payment plans for small-ticket items are growing quickly, creating a blind spot for lenders</p><p><blockquote>小额项目的短期付款计划增长迅速，给贷方带来了盲点</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ece6d96b441ee27bfda58fca9763be17\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"859\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Early next year, Equifax will begin recording ‘pay-in-4’ installment plans on people’s credit reports.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>明年初，Equifax将开始在人们的信用报告中记录“4次付款”分期付款计划。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A popular kind of “buy now, pay later” plan is coming to credit reports.</p><p><blockquote>一种流行的“先买后付”计划即将出现在信用报告中。</blockquote></p><p> Early next year,Equifax&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;will begin recording installment plans that allow shoppers to make four biweekly payments instead of covering the full cost at checkout. The move is meant to give lenders a fuller picture of people’s financial commitments, including how much they owe on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>明年初，Equifax Inc.将开始记录分期付款计划，允许购物者每两周一次付款，而不是在结账时支付全部费用。此举旨在让贷方更全面地了解人们的财务承诺，包括他们在这些计划中欠了多少钱。</blockquote></p><p> These “pay-in-4” plans have exploded in popularity in recent years. They are often used for small-ticket items such as clothing and makeup and are typically billed directly to a shopper’s debit or credit card. A $200 shopping trip, for example, requires $50 upfront and three more $50 payments billed every two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，这些“四次付费”计划大受欢迎。它们通常用于服装和化妆品等小额商品，通常直接记入购物者的借记卡或信用卡。例如，一次200美元的购物旅行需要预付50美元，每两周再支付三次50美元的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Buy now, pay later is booming&nbsp;in the U.S. High-end and discount retailers alike&nbsp;offer the plans at checkout&nbsp;online. Some merchants also offer them in stores. But the plans often don’t show up on credit reports, creating a blind spot for lenders that use the information on the reports to gauge an applicant’s ability to repay.</p><p><blockquote>“先买后付”在美国正在蓬勃发展。高端零售商和折扣零售商都提供在线结账计划。一些商家也在商店里提供。但这些计划通常不会出现在信用报告上，这给使用报告上的信息来衡量申请人还款能力的贷方造成了盲点。</blockquote></p><p> “Responsible lending benefits from a complete picture of a person’s financial obligations,” said Equifax Chief Executive Mark Begor.</p><p><blockquote>Equifax首席执行官马克·贝戈尔(Mark Begor)表示：“负责任的贷款受益于对个人财务义务的完整了解。”</blockquote></p><p> Billions of dollars of obligations go unreported. Buy now, pay later company&nbsp;Afterpay&nbsp;Ltd., for example, did $9.8 billion in pay-in-4 plans in North America during the 12 months ended June 30, more than double a year earlier. Klarna Bank AB transactions during the first half of the year in the U.S. totaled $3.2 billion, up from $722 million during the same period in 2020. The majority are pay-in-4 plans.</p><p><blockquote>数十亿美元的债务没有被报告。例如，先买后付公司Afterpay Ltd.在截至6月30日的12个月内，在北美的四期付款计划中完成了98亿美元，是一年前的两倍多。Klarna Bank AB今年上半年在美国的交易总额为32亿美元，高于2020年同期的7.22亿美元。大多数是四次付费计划。</blockquote></p><p> The payment plans are small—the average Afterpay transaction is $150—but they can add up if shoppers use them frequently.</p><p><blockquote>付款计划规模很小——平均Afterpay交易为150美元——但如果购物者经常使用它们，它们可以累积起来。</blockquote></p><p> Credit-reporting firms have faced technical challenges adding short-term installment plans to credit reports. Most credit reports aren’t set up to display biweekly payments. And there is often a lag between when consumers open accounts and when lenders send that information for inclusion in people’s credit reports. The lag can outlast a fast repayment period.</p><p><blockquote>信用报告公司在信用报告中添加短期分期付款计划时面临着技术挑战。大多数信用报告并未设置为显示每两周付款一次。消费者开设账户和贷方发送该信息以纳入人们的信用报告之间通常存在滞后。这种滞后可能会超过快速还款期。</blockquote></p><p> Some buy now, pay later installment loans for big-ticket items are recorded on credit reports in the same section as personal loans. Far fewer of these smaller, short-term plans, which in most cases don’t require credit checks, are reflected in credit reports.</p><p><blockquote>一些先买后付的大件商品分期贷款与个人贷款记录在信用报告的同一部分。这些规模较小的短期计划（在大多数情况下不需要信用检查）很少反映在信用报告中。</blockquote></p><p> TransUnion&nbsp;said it doesn’t include these plans on its credit reports but is working with buy now, pay later companies to enable reporting next year. A small number of buy now, pay later companies submit information about these plans to&nbsp;Experian&nbsp;PLC, which then includes that data in credit reports. Experian is working with buy now, pay later firms to add more of this information to its reports.</p><p><blockquote>TransUnion表示，它没有将这些计划纳入其信用报告中，但正在与“先买后付”公司合作，以便明年进行报告。少数先买后付的公司向Experian plc提交有关这些计划的信息，然后Experian plc将这些数据包含在信用报告中。益百利正在与“先买后付”公司合作，在其报告中添加更多此类信息。</blockquote></p><p> Afterpay and Klarna, two of the biggest players in the business, don’t report their pay-in-4 plans to U.S. credit-reporting firms.Affirm Holdings&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;said it reports the full payment history of some of its loans, including on-time payments and delinquencies. The company doesn’t report its pay-in-4 product. All three said they have been talking to the firms about potentially reporting these plans.</p><p><blockquote>该行业最大的两家公司Afterpay和Klarna不向美国信用报告公司报告其4期付款计划。Affirm Holdings Inc.表示，它报告了部分贷款的完整付款历史记录，包括按时付款和拖欠。该公司没有报告其pay-in-4产品。三人都表示，他们一直在与这些公司讨论报告这些计划的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> One stumbling block: The frequent opening and closing of accounts can drag down credit scores. The buy now, pay later companies want to make sure customers who pay their bills on time aren’t penalized for frequent use of their short-term payment plans.</p><p><blockquote>一个绊脚石：频繁开户和关闭账户会拖累信用评分。“先买后付”公司希望确保按时支付账单的客户不会因频繁使用短期付款计划而受到惩罚。</blockquote></p><p> Equifax will add the pay-in-4 data to credit reports beginning at the end of February. Both positive and negative information, on-time payments and defaults, will be included in reports and reflected in consumers’ credit scores, Equifax said.</p><p><blockquote>Equifax将从2月底开始将pay-in-4数据添加到信用报告中。Equifax表示，正面和负面信息（按时付款和违约）都将包含在报告中，并反映在消费者的信用评分中。</blockquote></p><p> Buy now, pay later plans are especially popular among people with limited credit histories who don’t qualify for credit cards or other traditional credit. These consumers, Equifax said, should get a boost from the plans’ inclusion on credit reports if they pay their bills on time.</p><p><blockquote>“先买后付”计划在信用记录有限、没有资格获得信用卡或其他传统信贷的人中特别受欢迎。Equifax表示，如果这些消费者按时支付账单，将这些计划纳入信用报告应该会得到提振。</blockquote></p><p> People who have thin credit files or who have no more than two years of credit history saw an average FICO credit-score increase of 21 points, according to an Equifax study, compared with an average of 13 points for the typical borrower.</p><p><blockquote>根据Equifax的一项研究，信用档案薄弱或信用记录不超过两年的人的FICO信用评分平均增加了21分，而典型借款人的平均增加了13分。</blockquote></p><p> The credit report will include when the payment plan was opened, the scheduled payment the consumer has agreed to make and the actual payment that is made.</p><p><blockquote>信用报告将包括付款计划打开的时间、消费者同意支付的预定付款以及实际支付的款项。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/equifax-to-add-more-buy-now-pay-later-plans-to-credit-reports-11639915203?mod=hp_lista_pos4\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EFX":"艾可菲"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/equifax-to-add-more-buy-now-pay-later-plans-to-credit-reports-11639915203?mod=hp_lista_pos4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153903024","content_text":"Short-term payment plans for small-ticket items are growing quickly, creating a blind spot for lenders\nEarly next year, Equifax will begin recording ‘pay-in-4’ installment plans on people’s credit reports.\nA popular kind of “buy now, pay later” plan is coming to credit reports.\nEarly next year,Equifax Inc. will begin recording installment plans that allow shoppers to make four biweekly payments instead of covering the full cost at checkout. The move is meant to give lenders a fuller picture of people’s financial commitments, including how much they owe on these plans.\nThese “pay-in-4” plans have exploded in popularity in recent years. They are often used for small-ticket items such as clothing and makeup and are typically billed directly to a shopper’s debit or credit card. A $200 shopping trip, for example, requires $50 upfront and three more $50 payments billed every two weeks.\nBuy now, pay later is booming in the U.S. High-end and discount retailers alike offer the plans at checkout online. Some merchants also offer them in stores. But the plans often don’t show up on credit reports, creating a blind spot for lenders that use the information on the reports to gauge an applicant’s ability to repay.\n“Responsible lending benefits from a complete picture of a person’s financial obligations,” said Equifax Chief Executive Mark Begor.\nBillions of dollars of obligations go unreported. Buy now, pay later company Afterpay Ltd., for example, did $9.8 billion in pay-in-4 plans in North America during the 12 months ended June 30, more than double a year earlier. Klarna Bank AB transactions during the first half of the year in the U.S. totaled $3.2 billion, up from $722 million during the same period in 2020. The majority are pay-in-4 plans.\nThe payment plans are small—the average Afterpay transaction is $150—but they can add up if shoppers use them frequently.\nCredit-reporting firms have faced technical challenges adding short-term installment plans to credit reports. Most credit reports aren’t set up to display biweekly payments. And there is often a lag between when consumers open accounts and when lenders send that information for inclusion in people’s credit reports. The lag can outlast a fast repayment period.\nSome buy now, pay later installment loans for big-ticket items are recorded on credit reports in the same section as personal loans. Far fewer of these smaller, short-term plans, which in most cases don’t require credit checks, are reflected in credit reports.\nTransUnion said it doesn’t include these plans on its credit reports but is working with buy now, pay later companies to enable reporting next year. A small number of buy now, pay later companies submit information about these plans to Experian PLC, which then includes that data in credit reports. Experian is working with buy now, pay later firms to add more of this information to its reports.\nAfterpay and Klarna, two of the biggest players in the business, don’t report their pay-in-4 plans to U.S. credit-reporting firms.Affirm Holdings Inc. said it reports the full payment history of some of its loans, including on-time payments and delinquencies. The company doesn’t report its pay-in-4 product. All three said they have been talking to the firms about potentially reporting these plans.\nOne stumbling block: The frequent opening and closing of accounts can drag down credit scores. The buy now, pay later companies want to make sure customers who pay their bills on time aren’t penalized for frequent use of their short-term payment plans.\nEquifax will add the pay-in-4 data to credit reports beginning at the end of February. Both positive and negative information, on-time payments and defaults, will be included in reports and reflected in consumers’ credit scores, Equifax said.\nBuy now, pay later plans are especially popular among people with limited credit histories who don’t qualify for credit cards or other traditional credit. These consumers, Equifax said, should get a boost from the plans’ inclusion on credit reports if they pay their bills on time.\nPeople who have thin credit files or who have no more than two years of credit history saw an average FICO credit-score increase of 21 points, according to an Equifax study, compared with an average of 13 points for the typical borrower.\nThe credit report will include when the payment plan was opened, the scheduled payment the consumer has agreed to make and the actual payment that is made.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EFX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}