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·
01-31
那涨的时候期权有没有功劳？
黄金、白银遭遇“血色星期五”！专业人士：这可能是期权惹的祸
专业人士认为，是期权市场交易进一步放大了价格波动。市场人士指出，本轮黄金急跌背后，可能存在“伽马挤压”效应的推波助澜。芝加哥期权交易所衍生品市场情报主管Mandy Xu表示，尽管金价当日大幅下跌，期权市场的看涨押注反而有所增加，GLD的期权偏度进一步倒挂，投资者加码买入看涨期权押注反弹。
黄金、白银遭遇“血色星期五”！专业人士：这可能是期权惹的祸
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·
2025-09-09
那是不是上涨概率60%？
降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%
"降息必然利好股市"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示：降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%，六个月后下跌概率为37%，即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。该报告意外疲软，推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。这种预期意味着，若美联储本月宣布降息，市场表现或许并不乐观。
降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%
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2023-04-23
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
财报大揭秘与判断亏损公司
财报大揭秘与判断亏损公司
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2022-01-07
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
Tiger live 2022年美股或将出现大回调，中概股有望反弹上涨？
Tiger live 2022年美股或将出现大回调，中概股有望反弹上涨？
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2021-08-12
中信来啦😭
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2021-07-25
mark
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2021-07-05
🐴
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2021-06-03
马克一些一下
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2021-05-11
挺好
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Doshi表示，“这很可能是做市商对冲带来的伽马挤压。过去几周投资者大量买入近月看涨期权，推高了短期期权需求。当现货价格动能加速上行时，做市商的对冲操作可能进一步推动金价呈现抛物线式飙升。”</p><p>Doshi认为，随着月底临近以及特朗普宣布提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席，这种期权驱动的上涨行情正在出现快速“反向解除”，从而导致金价剧烈回调。</p><p>期权持仓结构也显示市场在关键价位存在集中到期压力。SPDR黄金ETF(GLD.US)周五在465美元和455美元行权价附近有大量期权到期；COMEX黄金期权市场中，3月与4月合约在5300美元、5200美元和5100美元附近同样聚集了显著头寸。</p><p>尽管技术指标暗示金价可能仍有进一步下行空间，Doshi指出，从2026年的结构性配置逻辑来看，此轮回调反而可能带来买入机会，“黄金的长期配置优势并未消失”。</p><p>值得注意的是，期权交易员并未完全撤离市场。GLD与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>白银ETF(SLV.US)的一个月隐含波动率仍维持在高位，显示市场对未来价格剧烈波动的预期依旧强烈。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>衍生品市场情报主管Mandy Xu表示，尽管金价当日大幅下跌，期权市场的看涨押注反而有所增加，GLD的期权偏度进一步倒挂，投资者加码买入看涨期权押注反弹。</p><p>COMEX市场上，投资者成交了大约1500笔“年底看涨组合”，押注金价未来可能大幅反弹。本周早些时候，类似的看涨交易更是出现了超过5500手的换手。与此同时，SPDR黄金ETF还出现了一笔规模巨大的长期交易，有资金在2027年1月到期的期权上大量布局，既买入保护性看跌期权，又卖出更多看跌合约，整体策略可能是在为未来一两年金价继续下跌的风险提前做准备。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400145.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五，现货黄金日内跌幅曾接近13%、为上世纪80年代初以来四十多年盘中跌幅之最，跌幅超过了2008年金融危机时。现货白银盘中一度暴跌超35%，创有纪录以来最大跌幅。专业人士认为，是期权市场交易进一步放大了价格波动。市场人士指出，本轮黄金急跌背后，可能存在“伽马挤压”效应的推波助澜。所谓伽马挤压，是指期权做市商在持有大量期权空头头寸时，为保持对冲平衡，需要在价格上涨时买入更多期货或ETF份额，而在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400145.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400145.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2607927027","content_text":"周五，现货黄金日内跌幅曾接近13%、为上世纪80年代初以来四十多年盘中跌幅之最，跌幅超过了2008年金融危机时。现货白银盘中一度暴跌超35%，创有纪录以来最大跌幅。专业人士认为，是期权市场交易进一步放大了价格波动。市场人士指出，本轮黄金急跌背后，可能存在“伽马挤压”效应的推波助澜。所谓伽马挤压，是指期权做市商在持有大量期权空头头寸时，为保持对冲平衡，需要在价格上涨时买入更多期货或ETF份额，而在价格下跌时反向卖出，从而加剧行情的顺周期波动。道富投资管理全球黄金与金属策略主管Aakash Doshi表示，“这很可能是做市商对冲带来的伽马挤压。过去几周投资者大量买入近月看涨期权，推高了短期期权需求。当现货价格动能加速上行时，做市商的对冲操作可能进一步推动金价呈现抛物线式飙升。”Doshi认为，随着月底临近以及特朗普宣布提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席，这种期权驱动的上涨行情正在出现快速“反向解除”，从而导致金价剧烈回调。期权持仓结构也显示市场在关键价位存在集中到期压力。SPDR黄金ETF(GLD.US)周五在465美元和455美元行权价附近有大量期权到期；COMEX黄金期权市场中，3月与4月合约在5300美元、5200美元和5100美元附近同样聚集了显著头寸。尽管技术指标暗示金价可能仍有进一步下行空间，Doshi指出，从2026年的结构性配置逻辑来看，此轮回调反而可能带来买入机会，“黄金的长期配置优势并未消失”。值得注意的是，期权交易员并未完全撤离市场。GLD与iShares白银ETF(SLV.US)的一个月隐含波动率仍维持在高位，显示市场对未来价格剧烈波动的预期依旧强烈。芝加哥期权交易所衍生品市场情报主管Mandy Xu表示，尽管金价当日大幅下跌，期权市场的看涨押注反而有所增加，GLD的期权偏度进一步倒挂，投资者加码买入看涨期权押注反弹。COMEX市场上，投资者成交了大约1500笔“年底看涨组合”，押注金价未来可能大幅反弹。本周早些时候，类似的看涨交易更是出现了超过5500手的换手。与此同时，SPDR黄金ETF还出现了一笔规模巨大的长期交易，有资金在2027年1月到期的期权上大量布局，既买入保护性看跌期权，又卖出更多看跌合约，整体策略可能是在为未来一两年金价继续下跌的风险提前做准备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":2,"YMmain":2,".DJI":2,"MNQ2612":2,"NQmain":2,"MNQ2603":2,".SPX":2,"NDX":2,".IXIC":2,"MNQmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":476810258502496,"gmtCreate":1757430870978,"gmtModify":1757430872762,"author":{"id":"3577221458132518","authorId":"3577221458132518","name":"更深得蓝","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577221458132518","authorIdStr":"3577221458132518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那是不是上涨概率60%？","listText":"那是不是上涨概率60%？","text":"那是不是上涨概率60%？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/476810258502496","repostId":"1149411232","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149411232","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1757398921,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149411232?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-09 14:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149411232","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"\"降息必然利好股市\"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。\"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示：降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%，六个月后下跌概率为37%，即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。该报告意外疲软，推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。这种预期意味着，若美联储本月宣布降息，市场表现或许并不乐观。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>"降息必然利好股市"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。逆向分析之父汉弗莱·尼尔（Humphrey Neill）曾警示："当众人想法一致时，往往可能集体犯错。"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示：<strong>降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%</strong>，六个月后下跌概率为37%，即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。这些统计明确表明，<strong>即便美联储如市场预期在9月会议降息，也远不能保证股市必然上涨</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_2608270648\">为什么美联储降息后股市有时会下跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">普遍认识是，如果在经济相对强劲的情况下降息，市场往往会上涨；如果在经济疲软的情况下降息，市场往往会下跌。</p><p>这一规律有助于解读上周股市对 8 月份就业报告的反应。该报告意外疲软，推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。标普 500指数起初因这一消息短暂上涨，但随后迅速逆转走势 —— 这或许是因为投资者意识到，经济衰退的风险可能正在逼近。</p><p>这种预期意味着，若美联储本月宣布降息，市场表现或许并不乐观。</p><h2 id=\"id_4172065443\">数据相关性：与普遍认知相反的趋势</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">从数据相关性来看，标普500指数的每日变化与美联储本月降息概率之间的关系，也为 “降息后市场可能低迷” 提供了支撑。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的 FedWatch工具过去 12 个月来，每个交易日都会根据30天联邦基金期货计算降息概率。</p><p>几乎所有投资者都认为二者呈反向相关：预期联邦基金利率上升，标普500指数就会下降，反之亦然。</p><p>但实际数据却显示相反的趋势：过去12个月，平均而言，当市场对 9 月份会议后联邦基金利率的预期高于前一天时，标普500指数的表现反而更好。这一相关性在统计学家常用的 95% 置信水平上具有显著性，表明这种模式并非偶然。</p><p>以今年4月2日的市场反应为例，当日白宫宣布 “解放日” 关税政策后，关税举措增加了经济衰退甚至更糟情况的预期可能性。因此，在4月2日之后的一周，股市与预期联邦基金利率双双下跌，标普500指数暴跌，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的预期下降26个基点，这对于通常平稳的联邦基金期货市场而言，单周跌幅已相当显著。</p><p>而一周后，当特朗普总统宣布暂停大部分 “解放日” 关税 90 天时，上述趋势随即逆转：声明发布当天，标普500指数飙升9.5%，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的隐含预期也跃升 23 个基点。</p><h2 id=\"id_1632363643\">投资者如何面对9月降息会议</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">对于投资者而言，可从中汲取两大启示：其一，需审慎对待对降息的过度期待，美联储降息未必是利好，甚至可能暗藏利空信号；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">其二，应始终愿意让自己的固有信念接受统计学检验，尤其是那些被几乎所有人认同的观点。这类观点最具危险性，因其广泛传播而容易被盲目遵循，一旦被证明错误，投资者将面临更大风险。</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-09 14:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>"降息必然利好股市"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。逆向分析之父汉弗莱·尼尔（Humphrey Neill）曾警示："当众人想法一致时，往往可能集体犯错。"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示：<strong>降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%</strong>，六个月后下跌概率为37%，即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。这些统计明确表明，<strong>即便美联储如市场预期在9月会议降息，也远不能保证股市必然上涨</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_2608270648\">为什么美联储降息后股市有时会下跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">普遍认识是，如果在经济相对强劲的情况下降息，市场往往会上涨；如果在经济疲软的情况下降息，市场往往会下跌。</p><p>这一规律有助于解读上周股市对 8 月份就业报告的反应。该报告意外疲软，推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。标普 500指数起初因这一消息短暂上涨，但随后迅速逆转走势 —— 这或许是因为投资者意识到，经济衰退的风险可能正在逼近。</p><p>这种预期意味着，若美联储本月宣布降息，市场表现或许并不乐观。</p><h2 id=\"id_4172065443\">数据相关性：与普遍认知相反的趋势</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">从数据相关性来看，标普500指数的每日变化与美联储本月降息概率之间的关系，也为 “降息后市场可能低迷” 提供了支撑。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的 FedWatch工具过去 12 个月来，每个交易日都会根据30天联邦基金期货计算降息概率。</p><p>几乎所有投资者都认为二者呈反向相关：预期联邦基金利率上升，标普500指数就会下降，反之亦然。</p><p>但实际数据却显示相反的趋势：过去12个月，平均而言，当市场对 9 月份会议后联邦基金利率的预期高于前一天时，标普500指数的表现反而更好。这一相关性在统计学家常用的 95% 置信水平上具有显著性，表明这种模式并非偶然。</p><p>以今年4月2日的市场反应为例，当日白宫宣布 “解放日” 关税政策后，关税举措增加了经济衰退甚至更糟情况的预期可能性。因此，在4月2日之后的一周，股市与预期联邦基金利率双双下跌，标普500指数暴跌，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的预期下降26个基点，这对于通常平稳的联邦基金期货市场而言，单周跌幅已相当显著。</p><p>而一周后，当特朗普总统宣布暂停大部分 “解放日” 关税 90 天时，上述趋势随即逆转：声明发布当天，标普500指数飙升9.5%，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的隐含预期也跃升 23 个基点。</p><h2 id=\"id_1632363643\">投资者如何面对9月降息会议</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">对于投资者而言，可从中汲取两大启示：其一，需审慎对待对降息的过度期待，美联储降息未必是利好，甚至可能暗藏利空信号；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">其二，应始终愿意让自己的固有信念接受统计学检验，尤其是那些被几乎所有人认同的观点。这类观点最具危险性，因其广泛传播而容易被盲目遵循，一旦被证明错误，投资者将面临更大风险。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f80b4f5ca39b50a8c2a9898ba64544","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 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