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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-14
  Stuck
  The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote>
  In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower. By way of a
  The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote>
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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-14
  Informative read
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-12
  Red.....
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-11
  [流泪]
  Should We Fear, Inflation Is Here<blockquote>我们应该害怕吗，通货膨胀来了</blockquote>
  It’s becoming hard to ignore inflationary pressures, whether one is a central banker or not. Tech in
  Should We Fear, Inflation Is Here<blockquote>我们应该害怕吗，通货膨胀来了</blockquote>
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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-11
  Oh mannnn..worrying
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-05
  Not surprising
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-05
  Omg
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-04
  I'm not so sure
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-04
  Covid was no where near over but people forgot that ..
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- 文氏文氏
  ·2021-05-04
  Ahhh..
  Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>
  With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from inv
  Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>
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And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.</p><p><blockquote>原因是大部分科技投资都是基于增长率。如果债券收益率因通货膨胀而上升，债券作为一种投资就会变得更具吸引力，从而削弱科技的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> As I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).</p><p><blockquote>正如我昨天提到的。随着通胀在2020年进入金融体系并在2021年开始加速，科技股陷入困境。您可以在下面的图表中看到这一点（红色矩形）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6366a605a86374ef9af9de07ae828fd4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&amp;P 500? Will it collapse too?</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们知道，随着通胀升温，科技将难以前进。但是像标普500这样的大盘呢？它也会崩溃吗？</blockquote></p><p> To figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>为了弄清楚这一点，让我们来看看美国最近两次通胀恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次恐慌发生在2010-2011年。当时，美联储很快就采取了行动，并决定结束其QE 2计划（通胀飙升的原因）。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.</p><p><blockquote>美联储随后等待了几个月才推出任何新的货币计划。当它真的推出时，它并不涉及印钞（相反，美联储通过一个名为“扭曲操作”的过程使用国债销售收益购买长期国债）。这是一种隐形收紧。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.</p><p><blockquote>股市不喜欢这样，暴跌近20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdf95bc30276d330c4bd7a5f62b10d2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，这是一次相对较小的通胀恐慌。在20世纪70-80年代最后一次合理的通胀风暴期间。</blockquote></p><p> During that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).</p><p><blockquote>在这场混乱中，美联储被迫更加积极地收紧货币政策，启动了两项激进的紧缩计划。值得注意的是，这引发了两次严重的衰退（阴影区域）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6ed1ada17beb2066d0017b576e64cc\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38c35b81a872044b03ce49014d5e46\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote>这导致股市崩溃，导致18个月内下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?</p><p><blockquote>那么，这次会是什么呢？美联储会像2011年那样进行秘密缩减……还是会像上世纪七八十年代那样大幅收紧货币政策？</blockquote></p><p> We’ll address that in our next article.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下一篇文章中讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> in the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation&nbsp;<b>pay you</b>&nbsp;as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们刚刚发布了一份特别投资报告，内容涉及可以用来制造通货膨胀的五种秘密投资<b>付给你</b>随着它在未来几个月席卷金融体系。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Last Two Times This Hit, Stocks Dropped 20% and 50%, Respectively<blockquote>上两次股市分别下跌了20%和50%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-13 23:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的上一篇文章中，我概述了通胀上升如何导致科技股下跌。</blockquote></p><p> By way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.</p><p><blockquote>快速回顾一下，以纳斯达克为代表的科技股对通胀高度敏感，呈反比关系：当通胀上升时，科技股暴跌，当通胀下降时，科技股飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.</p><p><blockquote>原因是大部分科技投资都是基于增长率。如果债券收益率因通货膨胀而上升，债券作为一种投资就会变得更具吸引力，从而削弱科技的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> As I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).</p><p><blockquote>正如我昨天提到的。随着通胀在2020年进入金融体系并在2021年开始加速，科技股陷入困境。您可以在下面的图表中看到这一点（红色矩形）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6366a605a86374ef9af9de07ae828fd4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&amp;P 500? Will it collapse too?</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们知道，随着通胀升温，科技将难以前进。但是像标普500这样的大盘呢？它也会崩溃吗？</blockquote></p><p> To figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>为了弄清楚这一点，让我们来看看美国最近两次通胀恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.</p><p><blockquote>最近一次恐慌发生在2010-2011年。当时，美联储很快就采取了行动，并决定结束其QE 2计划（通胀飙升的原因）。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.</p><p><blockquote>美联储随后等待了几个月才推出任何新的货币计划。当它真的推出时，它并不涉及印钞（相反，美联储通过一个名为“扭曲操作”的过程使用国债销售收益购买长期国债）。这是一种隐形收紧。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.</p><p><blockquote>股市不喜欢这样，暴跌近20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fdf95bc30276d330c4bd7a5f62b10d2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Bear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，这是一次相对较小的通胀恐慌。在20世纪70-80年代最后一次合理的通胀风暴期间。</blockquote></p><p> During that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).</p><p><blockquote>在这场混乱中，美联储被迫更加积极地收紧货币政策，启动了两项激进的紧缩计划。值得注意的是，这引发了两次严重的衰退（阴影区域）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6ed1ada17beb2066d0017b576e64cc\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b38c35b81a872044b03ce49014d5e46\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"376\"></p><p><blockquote>这导致股市崩溃，导致18个月内下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> So, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?</p><p><blockquote>那么，这次会是什么呢？美联储会像2011年那样进行秘密缩减……还是会像上世纪七八十年代那样大幅收紧货币政策？</blockquote></p><p> We’ll address that in our next article.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下一篇文章中讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> in the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation&nbsp;<b>pay you</b>&nbsp;as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们刚刚发布了一份特别投资报告，内容涉及可以用来制造通货膨胀的五种秘密投资<b>付给你</b>随着它在未来几个月席卷金融体系。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-13/last-two-times-hit-stocks-dropped-20-and-50-respectively\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-05-13/last-two-times-hit-stocks-dropped-20-and-50-respectively","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196862271","content_text":"In our last article, I outlined how the rise in inflation has slammed Tech stocks lower.\nBy way of a quick review, Tech, as represented by the NASDAQ is highly sensitive to inflation on an inverse relationship: when inflation rises, Tech stocks collapse and when inflation falls, Tech stocks erupt higher.\nThe reason for this is that much of Tech investing is based on growth rates. And if bond yields rise as a result of inflation, bonds become more attractive as an investment, taking away from the appeal of Tech.\nAs I noted yesterday. as inflation entered the financial system in 2020 and began to accelerate in 2021, Tech stocks have struggled. You can see this in the chart below (red rectangle).\nSo, we know that Tech is going to struggle going forward as inflation heats up. But what about the broader market like the S&P 500? Will it collapse too?\nTo figure that out, let’s take a look at the last two inflationary scares in the U.S.\nThe most recent scare occurred in 2010-2011. At that time, the Fed was pretty quick on the uptake and decided to allow its QE 2 program (the cause of the inflationary spike) to end.\nThe Fed then waited several months before introducing any new monetary programs. And when it did introduce one, it didn’t involve money printing (instead the Fed used the proceeds from Treasury sales to buy long-date Treasuries through a process called Operation Twist). This was a kind of stealth tightening.\nStocks didn’t like this, collapsing nearly 20%.\n\nBear in mind, that was a relatively minor inflationary scare. During the last legitimate inflationary storm in the 1970s-1980s.\nDuring that mess, the Fed was forced to be MUCH more aggressive with its tightening, embarking on two aggressive tightening schedules. It’s worth noting that this triggered two SEVERE recessions (shaded areas).\n\nThis IMPLODED the stock market, resulting in a roughly 50% decline over the course of 18 months.\nSo, what will it be this time? Will the Fed engage in a stealth taper as was the case in 2011… or will it tighten monetary policy aggressively as it did in the 1970s and 1980s?\nWe’ll address that in our next article.\nin the meantime, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198310782,"gmtCreate":1620925137746,"gmtModify":1634195230283,"author":{"id":"3576837088119232","authorId":"3576837088119232","name":"文氏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ab58f27225c31b03dde6b684f98f7e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576837088119232","authorIdStr":"3576837088119232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Informative read","listText":"Informative read","text":"Informative read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198310782","repostId":"1116555518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191915440,"gmtCreate":1620833123680,"gmtModify":1634195961583,"author":{"id":"3576837088119232","authorId":"3576837088119232","name":"文氏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ab58f27225c31b03dde6b684f98f7e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576837088119232","authorIdStr":"3576837088119232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Red.....","listText":"Red.....","text":"Red.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191915440","repostId":"1109603661","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193940199,"gmtCreate":1620747860711,"gmtModify":1634196609527,"author":{"id":"3576837088119232","authorId":"3576837088119232","name":"文氏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ab58f27225c31b03dde6b684f98f7e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576837088119232","authorIdStr":"3576837088119232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193940199","repostId":"1171091038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171091038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620745886,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171091038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-11 23:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Should We Fear, Inflation Is Here<blockquote>我们应该害怕吗，通货膨胀来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171091038","media":"zerohedge","summary":"It’s becoming hard to ignore inflationary pressures, whether one is a central banker or not. Tech in","content":"<p>It’s becoming hard to ignore inflationary pressures, whether one is a central banker or not. Tech investors are taking notice with Monday’s Nasdaq 100 slump the largest since mid-March, while China’s producer prices&nbsp;accelerated&nbsp;overnight.&nbsp;VIX futures are higher with broad risk aversion setting up for European equities to catch up to the late downbeat U.S. session.</p><p><blockquote>无论一个人是否是央行行长，都很难忽视通胀压力。科技投资者正在关注周一纳斯达克100指数创下3月中旬以来最大跌幅，而中国生产者价格隔夜加速上涨。VIX期货走高，因欧洲股市普遍避险情绪升温，赶上美国股市尾盘的悲观行情。</blockquote></p><p> At least investor jitters that rising inflation could lift bond yields, and sap equities’ appeal could take comfort from real yields. The 10-year U.S. inflation-adjusted benchmark tumbled to three-month lows, keeping nominal yields in check as breakevens&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;to multi-year highs.</p><p><blockquote>至少投资者担心通胀上升可能会提高债券收益率，而sap股票的吸引力可能会从实际收益率中得到安慰。美国10年期通胀调整基准指数跌至三个月低点，随着盈亏平衡点跃升至多年高点，名义收益率受到抑制。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8047b97c104b947668ce19b34f7fd4a\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Financial conditions reached another&nbsp;record, while evidence of stocks’ rotation remains: S&amp;P 500 energy and financials advanced over the past 5 sessions, value is outperforming growth –- particularly in&nbsp;Europe&nbsp;-- and the RTY/NDX is well, steady –- much like 10-year nominal yields around 1.60%.</p><p><blockquote>金融状况再创新高，而股票轮动的证据依然存在：标普500能源和金融股在过去5个交易日中上涨，价值跑赢增长——尤其是在欧洲——RTY/NDX表现良好、稳定——很像10年名义收益率约为1.60%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. labor market frictions look to be adding to inflation fears, with JOLTs data, a leading indicator of hiring, likely to signal workers’ growing pricing power. And the NFIB small business optimism will be watched today for supply side constraints –- last month, job openings that were “hard to fill” reached at least a four-decade high. Of course, labor market dislocations remain and a handful of Fed speakers today will no doubt look to assuage inflation fears and discount near-term tapering risks. Not like Bill&nbsp;Dudley.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳动力市场摩擦似乎加剧了通胀担忧，JOLTs数据是招聘的领先指标，可能表明工人的定价能力不断增强。NFIB小企业乐观情绪今天将因供应方面的限制而受到关注——上个月，“难以填补”的职位空缺达到了至少四年来的最高水平。当然，劳动力市场的混乱仍然存在，今天的一些美联储发言人无疑会寻求缓解通胀担忧并淡化近期缩减购债规模的风险。不像比尔·达德利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98df6b5f32251d558127766afc21fad8\" tg-width=\"1257\" tg-height=\"710\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Whether the Fed falls too far behind the curve remains up for debate. Markets, on the other hand, aren’t as comfortable looking through transitory inflation as evidence builds and expectations climb -- that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy after all.</p><p><blockquote>美联储是否落后太多仍有待商榷。另一方面，随着证据的积累和预期的攀升，市场对暂时性通胀的看法并不那么舒服——这毕竟可能成为一个自我实现的预言。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should We Fear, Inflation Is Here<blockquote>我们应该害怕吗，通货膨胀来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould We Fear, Inflation Is Here<blockquote>我们应该害怕吗，通货膨胀来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-11 23:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s becoming hard to ignore inflationary pressures, whether one is a central banker or not. Tech investors are taking notice with Monday’s Nasdaq 100 slump the largest since mid-March, while China’s producer prices&nbsp;accelerated&nbsp;overnight.&nbsp;VIX futures are higher with broad risk aversion setting up for European equities to catch up to the late downbeat U.S. session.</p><p><blockquote>无论一个人是否是央行行长，都很难忽视通胀压力。科技投资者正在关注周一纳斯达克100指数创下3月中旬以来最大跌幅，而中国生产者价格隔夜加速上涨。VIX期货走高，因欧洲股市普遍避险情绪升温，赶上美国股市尾盘的悲观行情。</blockquote></p><p> At least investor jitters that rising inflation could lift bond yields, and sap equities’ appeal could take comfort from real yields. The 10-year U.S. inflation-adjusted benchmark tumbled to three-month lows, keeping nominal yields in check as breakevens&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;to multi-year highs.</p><p><blockquote>至少投资者担心通胀上升可能会提高债券收益率，而sap股票的吸引力可能会从实际收益率中得到安慰。美国10年期通胀调整基准指数跌至三个月低点，随着盈亏平衡点跃升至多年高点，名义收益率受到抑制。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8047b97c104b947668ce19b34f7fd4a\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"716\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Financial conditions reached another&nbsp;record, while evidence of stocks’ rotation remains: S&amp;P 500 energy and financials advanced over the past 5 sessions, value is outperforming growth –- particularly in&nbsp;Europe&nbsp;-- and the RTY/NDX is well, steady –- much like 10-year nominal yields around 1.60%.</p><p><blockquote>金融状况再创新高，而股票轮动的证据依然存在：标普500能源和金融股在过去5个交易日中上涨，价值跑赢增长——尤其是在欧洲——RTY/NDX表现良好、稳定——很像10年名义收益率约为1.60%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. labor market frictions look to be adding to inflation fears, with JOLTs data, a leading indicator of hiring, likely to signal workers’ growing pricing power. And the NFIB small business optimism will be watched today for supply side constraints –- last month, job openings that were “hard to fill” reached at least a four-decade high. Of course, labor market dislocations remain and a handful of Fed speakers today will no doubt look to assuage inflation fears and discount near-term tapering risks. Not like Bill&nbsp;Dudley.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳动力市场摩擦似乎加剧了通胀担忧，JOLTs数据是招聘的领先指标，可能表明工人的定价能力不断增强。NFIB小企业乐观情绪今天将因供应方面的限制而受到关注——上个月，“难以填补”的职位空缺达到了至少四年来的最高水平。当然，劳动力市场的混乱仍然存在，今天的一些美联储发言人无疑会寻求缓解通胀担忧并淡化近期缩减购债规模的风险。不像比尔·达德利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98df6b5f32251d558127766afc21fad8\" tg-width=\"1257\" tg-height=\"710\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Whether the Fed falls too far behind the curve remains up for debate. Markets, on the other hand, aren’t as comfortable looking through transitory inflation as evidence builds and expectations climb -- that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy after all.</p><p><blockquote>美联储是否落后太多仍有待商榷。另一方面，随着证据的积累和预期的攀升，市场对暂时性通胀的看法并不那么舒服——这毕竟可能成为一个自我实现的预言。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/should-we-fear-inflation-here\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/should-we-fear-inflation-here","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171091038","content_text":"It’s becoming hard to ignore inflationary pressures, whether one is a central banker or not. Tech investors are taking notice with Monday’s Nasdaq 100 slump the largest since mid-March, while China’s producer prices accelerated overnight. VIX futures are higher with broad risk aversion setting up for European equities to catch up to the late downbeat U.S. session.\nAt least investor jitters that rising inflation could lift bond yields, and sap equities’ appeal could take comfort from real yields. The 10-year U.S. inflation-adjusted benchmark tumbled to three-month lows, keeping nominal yields in check as breakevens jumped to multi-year highs.\n\nFinancial conditions reached another record, while evidence of stocks’ rotation remains: S&P 500 energy and financials advanced over the past 5 sessions, value is outperforming growth –- particularly in Europe -- and the RTY/NDX is well, steady –- much like 10-year nominal yields around 1.60%.\nU.S. labor market frictions look to be adding to inflation fears, with JOLTs data, a leading indicator of hiring, likely to signal workers’ growing pricing power. And the NFIB small business optimism will be watched today for supply side constraints –- last month, job openings that were “hard to fill” reached at least a four-decade high. Of course, labor market dislocations remain and a handful of Fed speakers today will no doubt look to assuage inflation fears and discount near-term tapering risks. Not like Bill Dudley.\n\nWhether the Fed falls too far behind the curve remains up for debate. Markets, on the other hand, aren’t as comfortable looking through transitory inflation as evidence builds and expectations climb -- that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy after all.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193954396,"gmtCreate":1620747711515,"gmtModify":1634196610941,"author":{"id":"3576837088119232","authorId":"3576837088119232","name":"文氏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ab58f27225c31b03dde6b684f98f7e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576837088119232","authorIdStr":"3576837088119232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh mannnn..worrying&nbsp;","listText":"Oh mannnn..worrying&nbsp;","text":"Oh mannnn..worrying","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193954396","repostId":"1185197052","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106713766,"gmtCreate":1620144803055,"gmtModify":1634207457329,"author":{"id":"3576837088119232","authorId":"3576837088119232","name":"文氏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ab58f27225c31b03dde6b684f98f7e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576837088119232","authorIdStr":"3576837088119232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not surprising","listText":"Not surprising","text":"Not surprising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106713766","repostId":"1174922086","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106713370,"gmtCreate":1620144731590,"gmtModify":1634207457908,"author":{"id":"3576837088119232","authorId":"3576837088119232","name":"文氏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ab58f27225c31b03dde6b684f98f7e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576837088119232","authorIdStr":"3576837088119232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Omg&nbsp;","listText":"Omg&nbsp;","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106713370","repostId":"1195636027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106706972,"gmtCreate":1620142856796,"gmtModify":1634207477613,"author":{"id":"3576837088119232","authorId":"3576837088119232","name":"文氏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ab58f27225c31b03dde6b684f98f7e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576837088119232","authorIdStr":"3576837088119232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm not so sure","listText":"I'm not so sure","text":"I'm not so sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106706972","repostId":"2132178325","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106708147,"gmtCreate":1620142797889,"gmtModify":1634207478322,"author":{"id":"3576837088119232","authorId":"3576837088119232","name":"文氏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ab58f27225c31b03dde6b684f98f7e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576837088119232","authorIdStr":"3576837088119232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Covid was no where near over but people forgot that ..&nbsp;","listText":"Covid was no where near over but people forgot that ..&nbsp;","text":"Covid was no where near over but people forgot that ..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106708147","repostId":"1142616846","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106703402,"gmtCreate":1620142691606,"gmtModify":1634207479528,"author":{"id":"3576837088119232","authorId":"3576837088119232","name":"文氏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ab58f27225c31b03dde6b684f98f7e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576837088119232","authorIdStr":"3576837088119232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ahhh..","listText":"Ahhh..","text":"Ahhh..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106703402","repostId":"1107772617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107772617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620139709,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107772617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107772617","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from inv","content":"<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 22:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107772617","content_text":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.ReversalNet flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billionsThis 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}