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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-12-21
Why many people buy this stocks?
Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir:反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>
Summary Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good
Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir:反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>
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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-12-16
Drop to $10 I will be happy
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-12-15
$Senseonics(SENS)$
Really maybe regretting buy this stocks haiz
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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-12-01
$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$
another stupid stock
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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-12-01
$Senseonics(SENS)$
Holding it is so painful ;(
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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-11-14
This stock haiz
Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir:第三季度表现良好,自由现金流增加,提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>
Summary Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating
Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir:第三季度表现良好,自由现金流增加,提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>
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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-11-04
$Senseonics(SENS)$
Back to even high price baby!!!
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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-11-02
$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$
time for you to move forward
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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-10-14
$Senseonics(SENS)$
Ooooooo upwards all the way
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沈国伟
沈国伟
·
2021-09-02
$Senseonics(SENS)$
hee hee
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Listening to the bears' arguments is a good ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li> <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li> <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies是一只战场股票。听空头的论点对多头来说是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东,但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力,但PLTR对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资,这要归功于强大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)是一只陷入困境的成长型股票,最近几周,随着股价持续下跌,空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点,例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而,我仍然相信Palantir Technologies是一项有吸引力的长期投资,因为其技术可能会在未来许多年带来巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一只成长型股票,可以带来高度确信的多头和高度确信的空头。总的来说,我在这里是看涨阵营,但看看看跌的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下:</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东稀释</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司的增长很重要,但每股的增长更重要。有许多例子表明,公司股票数量的变化可以创造或破坏大量股东价值。例如,苹果(AAPL)的净利润在过去十年中增长了约190%:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而,由于股票数量下降,其每股收益增长了更具吸引力的350%——回购创造了大量股东价值。也有股票数量增加破坏了大量股东价值的例子,例如花旗集团(C):</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来,大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致每股收益下降75%,尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此,关注公司股票数量的变化是有意义的,因为从长远来看,这些变化可能会产生很大的影响。在Palantir,我们看到自公司上市以来,股票数量一直在大幅增加。最近一个季度,Palantir的股票数量如下所示:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Palantir新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比,Palantir的平均股票数量为18.95亿股,季度增长3.5%,年增长率在十几岁左右。当然,这一点根本不可忽视,当他们说股东以有意义的速度被稀释时,就值得争论。另一方面,Palantir的业务增长率远高于每季度3%,因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为40%,而且Palantir也应该在未来几年实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%,由于PLTR的快速增长,每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信,随着时间的推移,稀释度将会下降。这不仅适用于许多其他成长型公司,例如亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)或Meta(FB),但从期权回报的角度来看,这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时,期权奖励尤其丰厚,但随着公司成熟,随着公司风险的下降,员工会变得更加舒适,他们不再要求大笔期权套餐。最后但并非最不重要的是,Palantir还产生了强劲的自由现金流,这应该使该公司能够在未来进行股票回购,这也应该有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.对政府合同的依赖</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一篇看跌文章中,The Pulse的Seeking Alpha撰稿人认为Palantir被高估,其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。Palantir Technologies如今确实在很大程度上依赖政府合同,但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先,由于商业业务的大幅增长,Palantir最近实现了多元化,摆脱了政府合同:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Palantir技术演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上,Palantir的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务,这表明来自各个行业的商业客户显然看到了Palantir技术的巨大价值——否则,他们不会购买Palantir技术。速度很快。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率,Palantir将在多年后成为一家越来越不依赖政府合同的公司,并最终成为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使Palantir永远是一家以政府为中心的公司(根据各个业务部门目前的增长率,这似乎不太可能),但这也不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小,现有关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是,随着政府预算相对稳定地增长,良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域,因为该领域非常需要进一步投资。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为,政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据Palantir最新的季度报告(上面链接),2020年第三季度至2021年第三季度期间,其运营费用增加了900万美元,而同期收入增加了1.03亿美元。这抵消了股权激励的变化。如果将这些SBC费用包括在内,Palantir的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>而该公司的收入同比增长了近40%。因此,我认为Palantir多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反,数据表明Palantir将能够大幅提高其利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长9000万美元,而调整后运营费用仅增长900万美元——从而实现出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在2022年及以后加息,这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长较低或没有增长且在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比,目前未盈利或绝大部分利润在遥远未来的公司更容易面临贴现率上升的风险。我相信,这可能会导致未来几年价值股优于成长股。Palantir尚未盈利,自然属于“增长”类别,利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我认为,这里没有真正的反驳——确实,在其他条件相同的情况下,利率上升对Palantir的影响将比艾伯维(ABBV)等价值股更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而,这对Palantir来说是一个增量负面影响,并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免股票。事实上,即使利率上升带来了一些潜在的阻力,如果其他论点具有更大的权重,Palantir仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的,因为我认为PLTR巨大的增长潜力和巨大的护城河超过了近期的一些阻力来自利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么Palantir仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>看空者提出了一系列反对Palantir的论点,如上所示,这些论点可能有其优点。我相信在某些情况下他们可能被夸大了,但看看空头的论点并没有什么坏处——事实上,为了做出更明智的决定,看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题,尽管我不认为这会是太大的阻力,因为PLTR的业务增长很容易超过稀释,而且总体而言,稀释应该会在几年内放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率,对政府的依赖将会随着时间的推移而减弱,总的来说,与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的来看,PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些论点,我相信Palantir仍然很有吸引力:该公司发展迅速,在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力,而且Palantir似乎拥有非常宽的护城河。这种合并最终可能会将Palantir变成最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况会在短期内发生。相反,我相信Palantir很有可能在整个2020年代及以后以相当大的速度增长,因为我们的世界变得越来越需要数据——政府和企业都将努力获得最大的价值从所有这些数据中获得,Palantir将凭借其量身定制的解决方案,为其客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的Foundry for Crypto等新工具,Palantir处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于Palantir能够接触到顶尖人才——SBC的结果和良好的工作环境——我相信Palantir很有可能能够在未来的各种市场中具有高度竞争力。大数据/人工智能领域可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说,我不是一个成长型投资者——相反,我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票,通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而,Palantir在我的投资组合中有点异类——它是一只成长型股票,尚未真正盈利,而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的组合,Palantir对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票,但我相信Palantir很有可能在未来10多年成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。PLTR明年收入的19倍并不便宜,但当我们预计该公司将在许多年内以强劲的速度增长时,这对我来说一点也不奇怪。听空头的论点是有道理的,但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir:反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir:反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li> <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li> <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies是一只战场股票。听空头的论点对多头来说是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东,但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力,但PLTR对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资,这要归功于强大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)是一只陷入困境的成长型股票,最近几周,随着股价持续下跌,空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点,例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而,我仍然相信Palantir Technologies是一项有吸引力的长期投资,因为其技术可能会在未来许多年带来巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一只成长型股票,可以带来高度确信的多头和高度确信的空头。总的来说,我在这里是看涨阵营,但看看看跌的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下:</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东稀释</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司的增长很重要,但每股的增长更重要。有许多例子表明,公司股票数量的变化可以创造或破坏大量股东价值。例如,苹果(AAPL)的净利润在过去十年中增长了约190%:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而,由于股票数量下降,其每股收益增长了更具吸引力的350%——回购创造了大量股东价值。也有股票数量增加破坏了大量股东价值的例子,例如花旗集团(C):</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来,大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致每股收益下降75%,尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此,关注公司股票数量的变化是有意义的,因为从长远来看,这些变化可能会产生很大的影响。在Palantir,我们看到自公司上市以来,股票数量一直在大幅增加。最近一个季度,Palantir的股票数量如下所示:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Palantir新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比,Palantir的平均股票数量为18.95亿股,季度增长3.5%,年增长率在十几岁左右。当然,这一点根本不可忽视,当他们说股东以有意义的速度被稀释时,就值得争论。另一方面,Palantir的业务增长率远高于每季度3%,因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为40%,而且Palantir也应该在未来几年实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%,由于PLTR的快速增长,每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信,随着时间的推移,稀释度将会下降。这不仅适用于许多其他成长型公司,例如亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)或Meta(FB),但从期权回报的角度来看,这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时,期权奖励尤其丰厚,但随着公司成熟,随着公司风险的下降,员工会变得更加舒适,他们不再要求大笔期权套餐。最后但并非最不重要的是,Palantir还产生了强劲的自由现金流,这应该使该公司能够在未来进行股票回购,这也应该有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.对政府合同的依赖</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一篇看跌文章中,The Pulse的Seeking Alpha撰稿人认为Palantir被高估,其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。Palantir Technologies如今确实在很大程度上依赖政府合同,但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先,由于商业业务的大幅增长,Palantir最近实现了多元化,摆脱了政府合同:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:Palantir技术演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上,Palantir的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务,这表明来自各个行业的商业客户显然看到了Palantir技术的巨大价值——否则,他们不会购买Palantir技术。速度很快。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率,Palantir将在多年后成为一家越来越不依赖政府合同的公司,并最终成为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使Palantir永远是一家以政府为中心的公司(根据各个业务部门目前的增长率,这似乎不太可能),但这也不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小,现有关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是,随着政府预算相对稳定地增长,良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域,因为该领域非常需要进一步投资。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为,政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据Palantir最新的季度报告(上面链接),2020年第三季度至2021年第三季度期间,其运营费用增加了900万美元,而同期收入增加了1.03亿美元。这抵消了股权激励的变化。如果将这些SBC费用包括在内,Palantir的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>而该公司的收入同比增长了近40%。因此,我认为Palantir多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反,数据表明Palantir将能够大幅提高其利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长9000万美元,而调整后运营费用仅增长900万美元——从而实现出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在2022年及以后加息,这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长较低或没有增长且在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比,目前未盈利或绝大部分利润在遥远未来的公司更容易面临贴现率上升的风险。我相信,这可能会导致未来几年价值股优于成长股。Palantir尚未盈利,自然属于“增长”类别,利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我认为,这里没有真正的反驳——确实,在其他条件相同的情况下,利率上升对Palantir的影响将比艾伯维(ABBV)等价值股更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而,这对Palantir来说是一个增量负面影响,并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免股票。事实上,即使利率上升带来了一些潜在的阻力,如果其他论点具有更大的权重,Palantir仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的,因为我认为PLTR巨大的增长潜力和巨大的护城河超过了近期的一些阻力来自利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么Palantir仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>看空者提出了一系列反对Palantir的论点,如上所示,这些论点可能有其优点。我相信在某些情况下他们可能被夸大了,但看看空头的论点并没有什么坏处——事实上,为了做出更明智的决定,看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题,尽管我不认为这会是太大的阻力,因为PLTR的业务增长很容易超过稀释,而且总体而言,稀释应该会在几年内放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率,对政府的依赖将会随着时间的推移而减弱,总的来说,与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的来看,PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些论点,我相信Palantir仍然很有吸引力:该公司发展迅速,在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力,而且Palantir似乎拥有非常宽的护城河。这种合并最终可能会将Palantir变成最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况会在短期内发生。相反,我相信Palantir很有可能在整个2020年代及以后以相当大的速度增长,因为我们的世界变得越来越需要数据——政府和企业都将努力获得最大的价值从所有这些数据中获得,Palantir将凭借其量身定制的解决方案,为其客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的Foundry for Crypto等新工具,Palantir处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于Palantir能够接触到顶尖人才——SBC的结果和良好的工作环境——我相信Palantir很有可能能够在未来的各种市场中具有高度竞争力。大数据/人工智能领域可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说,我不是一个成长型投资者——相反,我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票,通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而,Palantir在我的投资组合中有点异类——它是一只成长型股票,尚未真正盈利,而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的组合,Palantir对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票,但我相信Palantir很有可能在未来10多年成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。PLTR明年收入的19倍并不便宜,但当我们预计该公司将在许多年内以强劲的速度增长时,这对我来说一点也不奇怪。听空头的论点是有道理的,但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117226796","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.\nPLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.\nDespite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.\n\nspxChrome/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.\n3 Issues Brought Up By Bears\nPalantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:\n1. Shareholder Dilution\nGrowth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:\nData by YCharts\nThanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):\nData by YCharts\nMassive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:\nSource: Palantir Press Release\nCompared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.\n2. Reliance on government contracts\nIn a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:\nSource: Palantir Technologies presentation\nIn fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With\nWith the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.\nThe claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actuallydeclinedyear-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.\n3. Exposure to rising rates\nMassive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.\nThis being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.\nWhy Palantir Is Still Attractive\nBears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.\nPalantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.\nTakeaway\nIn general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690058956,"gmtCreate":1639615868782,"gmtModify":1639615868915,"author":{"id":"3575186892078860","authorId":"3575186892078860","name":"沈国伟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0b17e6ea7a79f0b333ba3e8faccf34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186892078860","authorIdStr":"3575186892078860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Drop to $10 I will be happy","listText":"Drop to $10 I will be happy","text":"Drop to $10 I will be happy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690058956","repostId":"1143795954","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607813244,"gmtCreate":1639524155093,"gmtModify":1639524379343,"author":{"id":"3575186892078860","authorId":"3575186892078860","name":"沈国伟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0b17e6ea7a79f0b333ba3e8faccf34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186892078860","authorIdStr":"3575186892078860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Really maybe regretting buy this stocks haiz","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Really maybe regretting buy this stocks haiz","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$Really maybe regretting buy this stocks 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stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609517832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609517165,"gmtCreate":1638305259420,"gmtModify":1638305259543,"author":{"id":"3575186892078860","authorId":"3575186892078860","name":"沈国伟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0b17e6ea7a79f0b333ba3e8faccf34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186892078860","authorIdStr":"3575186892078860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Holding it is so painful ;(","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Holding it is so painful ;(","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$Holding it is so painful ;(","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609517165","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873932847,"gmtCreate":1636825024004,"gmtModify":1636825024122,"author":{"id":"3575186892078860","authorId":"3575186892078860","name":"沈国伟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0b17e6ea7a79f0b333ba3e8faccf34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186892078860","authorIdStr":"3575186892078860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This stock haiz","listText":"This stock haiz","text":"This stock haiz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873932847","repostId":"1129543601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129543601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636770982,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129543601?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir:第三季度表现良好,自由现金流增加,提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129543601","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li> <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li> <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li> <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的收入环比增长36%,同时产生1.19亿美元的自由现金流,利润率为30%。</li><li>Palantir第三季度商业收入同比增长37%,政府收入同比增长34%,显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易,合同价值至少为100万美元,其中33笔价值超过500万美元,18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir再次上调指引,预计收入同比增长40%,达到15.27亿美元,自由现金流为4亿美元,高于之前指引的3亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者又爱又恨Palantir(PLTR),它过去被昵称为黑匣子公司,而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它,因为他们相信PLTR的软件是未来。在我之前关于PLTR的文章中,我表示,根据PLTR当前的收入趋势,他们计划在第三季度实现3.9941亿美元的收入,在第四季度实现4.2322亿美元的收入。市场普遍认为第三季度的收入为3.8656亿美元,PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元,预测为4.18亿美元。当进行盈利看涨期权时,盘前的反应只不过是PLTR急剧下跌的红海,每次试图填补缺口时,螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化,但人们决定要么获利了结,要么退出头寸,要么对PLTR失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报中有什么不让人喜欢的地方导致了一直徘徊在-9.03%区间的抛售?PLTR收入同比增长36%,第三季度增加了34个新客户,并完成了54笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。PLTR的剩余交易价值同比增加了50%,达到36亿美元,并提供了1.01亿美元的运营现金(利润率26%)和1.99亿美元的自由现金流(利润率30%)。PLTR还提高了2021年的指导,因为他们现在预计收入同比增长40%,而之前的预测为30%,并将自由现金流预测从3亿美元提高到4亿美元。除了这些数字之外,PLTR还宣布了新的产品平台和用例,这些平台和用例在未来推动收入和自由现金流方面具有巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售将是短暂的,我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:寻求阿尔法)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir在商业和政府方面的收入持续扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来,他们的商业业务逐季扩张。上市五个季度后,PLTR的季度商业收入增长了6200万美元,增幅为55.36%。2021年第三季度,PLTR的商业运营收入为1.74亿美元,占其3.921亿美元季度收入的44.38%。过去两年,PLTR第三季度收入增长了85.11%,2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%,2021年第三季度同比增长37.01%。PLTR的商业剩余交易价值同比增长101%,从2020年第三季度的11亿美元增至2021年第三季度的22亿美元。商业客户邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案,PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021年第三季度,PLTR净新增34家新客户,商业客户群环比增加20%,达到203家。过去一年,PLTR的商业客户群扩大了46.04%,客户数量从139个增加到203个,增加了64个。任何仍然将PLTR归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的,因为商业市场正在了解PLTR的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善其运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Steven Fiorillo)(数据来源:Palantir)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年第一季度以来,PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元(71.23%),平均季度环比增长率为9.43%。2021年第三季度,这一趋势保持不变,收入环比增长1610万美元,即4.28%。虽然与2021年第二季度的10.26%相比,季度收入增长环比略有放缓,但PLTR预计2021年第四季度收入将为4.18亿美元。PLTR预计将再创公司纪录,并在年底实现2590万美元(6.61%)的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月(TTM)的总收入。在过去六个季度中,PLTR的TTM收入从8.106亿美元增加到14.3亿美元,增加了6.206亿美元(76.55%)。平均而言,PLTR的TTM收入环比增长1.0342亿美元(9.94%)。在Q1 2020-2020年第三季度,他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元,这一数字大幅增长,因为过去三个季度环比增长了至少1.05亿美元。2021年第三季度,PLTR的TTM收入增加至14.3亿美元,环比收入增长1.068亿美元(8.06%)。就像季度指标一样,PLTR的TTM预计将环比增长9590万美元,达到15.27亿美元,而市场普遍预期为15.1亿美元。这将使PLTR的年收入同比增长远高于30%的预测,因为到2021年,他们的收入将增加4.343亿美元(39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Steven Fiorillo)(数据来源:Palantir)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR是一家高增长公司,目前自由现金流为正,并正在扩大其指标。2020年前9个月,PLTR产生了-2.85亿美元的自由现金流,截至2021年前9个月末,PLTR实现了6.05亿美元的波动,年初至今已产生了3.2亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR此前将2021年自由现金流指引提高至300美元,而他们刚刚再次将其提高至4亿美元以上。在三个月的时间里,PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度,PLTR的自由现金流利润率为30%,预计2021年自由现金流将超过4亿美元。至少,这意味着他们将在2021年额外增加8000万美元的自由现金流。如果PLTR实现15.27亿美元的收入和4亿美元的自由现金流,其2021年的自由现金流利润率将为26.2%。PLTR仍预计到2025年年收入将同比增长30%,根据2021年1.527美元的预测,2025年收入将达到43.6亿美元。按照PLTR目前的自由现金流利润率,他们将在2025年产生11.4亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到PLTR目前的趋势,如果他们超出预测并同比增长35%,那么他们2025年的收入将达到50.7亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率,到2025年,他们将产生13.3亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:PLTR)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全速点火。第三季度收入同比增长36%,第二次将自由现金流指引从3亿美元上调至4亿美元以上,并将年收入增长指引从30%上调至约40%。PLTR仍维持每年30%的未来收入前景,并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润。第三季度PLTR的商业收入同比增长37%,政府收入同比增长34%。PLTR在第三季度完成了至少54笔价值至少100万美元的交易,其中33笔收入至少500万美元,18笔收入至少1000万美元。PLTR的增长指标令人印象深刻,我预计它们未来将低于承诺并超额交付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir正在进入两个巨大的新领域:碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去,我曾写过有关政府、亚马逊(纳斯达克股票代码:AMZN)和国际商业机器公司(纽约证券交易所股票代码:IBM)未来机遇的文章。在今天的收益看涨期权上,PLTR介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密货币提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM) are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to scrub emissions out of the air and carbonate fuel cells to capture industrial emissions from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性转变,拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》,重新参与应对气候变化。该计划的一部分是到2050年实现整个经济的净零排放。最近,拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作,到2030年将全球甲烷总排放量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么,有许多人认为我们需要降低排放,许多国家正在朝着一个目标努力。为了遵守规定,埃克森美孚(纽约证券交易所股票代码:XOM)等公司正在与外部组织对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究,包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获烟道中工业排放的碳酸盐燃料电池发电厂或制造设施的气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务,PLTR正在Foundry上创建一个模块,以提供一个单一的窗格来查看收入、利润、生产和所有排放,以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言,我相信这对于推动PLTR未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Palantir)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密货币代工。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解你的客户的专业知识。多年来,PLTR一直与多个政府合作,寻找全球最大银行的合规问题,并帮助这些银行应对和加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的,当您回到合同时,PLTR已获得IRS和SEC的授予(在之前的文章中讨论过)。仅在第三季度,PLTR就与IRS签署了6份合同。如果让我猜的话,PLTR的软件将被IRS和SEC在政府方面使用,并被银行和加密货币交易所在商业方面采用。目前,在过去24小时内,Coinbase(纳斯达克:COIN)显示比特币(BTC-USD)的交易量为438亿美元。我认为PLTR最终将从其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同中获得未来的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Steven Fiorillo)(数据来源:联邦采购数据库)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Palantir)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其收益并在消息好的时候抛售消息的另一个统计数据。还有人想让PLTR做什么?这是一个出色的季度,第三季度收入同比增长36%,自由现金流为1.19亿美元,利润率为30%,PLTR完成了54笔交易,每笔价值超过100万美元。PLTR超出收入预期,第二次上调全年收入指引,上调自由现金流指引。这是一个基于所有积极因素的卖出消息,这创造了买入机会。我将做多PLTR,如果抛售继续,我计划增加我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。Barbell Capital将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答环节、观察列表和其他功能。我还将拥有一个实时投资组合,致力于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将分配给未来的资本增值投资和投资股息投资,在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir:第三季度表现良好,自由现金流增加,提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir:第三季度表现良好,自由现金流增加,提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li> <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li> <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li> <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的收入环比增长36%,同时产生1.19亿美元的自由现金流,利润率为30%。</li><li>Palantir第三季度商业收入同比增长37%,政府收入同比增长34%,显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易,合同价值至少为100万美元,其中33笔价值超过500万美元,18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir再次上调指引,预计收入同比增长40%,达到15.27亿美元,自由现金流为4亿美元,高于之前指引的3亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者又爱又恨Palantir(PLTR),它过去被昵称为黑匣子公司,而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它,因为他们相信PLTR的软件是未来。在我之前关于PLTR的文章中,我表示,根据PLTR当前的收入趋势,他们计划在第三季度实现3.9941亿美元的收入,在第四季度实现4.2322亿美元的收入。市场普遍认为第三季度的收入为3.8656亿美元,PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元,预测为4.18亿美元。当进行盈利看涨期权时,盘前的反应只不过是PLTR急剧下跌的红海,每次试图填补缺口时,螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化,但人们决定要么获利了结,要么退出头寸,要么对PLTR失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报中有什么不让人喜欢的地方导致了一直徘徊在-9.03%区间的抛售?PLTR收入同比增长36%,第三季度增加了34个新客户,并完成了54笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。PLTR的剩余交易价值同比增加了50%,达到36亿美元,并提供了1.01亿美元的运营现金(利润率26%)和1.99亿美元的自由现金流(利润率30%)。PLTR还提高了2021年的指导,因为他们现在预计收入同比增长40%,而之前的预测为30%,并将自由现金流预测从3亿美元提高到4亿美元。除了这些数字之外,PLTR还宣布了新的产品平台和用例,这些平台和用例在未来推动收入和自由现金流方面具有巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售将是短暂的,我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:寻求阿尔法)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir在商业和政府方面的收入持续扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来,他们的商业业务逐季扩张。上市五个季度后,PLTR的季度商业收入增长了6200万美元,增幅为55.36%。2021年第三季度,PLTR的商业运营收入为1.74亿美元,占其3.921亿美元季度收入的44.38%。过去两年,PLTR第三季度收入增长了85.11%,2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%,2021年第三季度同比增长37.01%。PLTR的商业剩余交易价值同比增长101%,从2020年第三季度的11亿美元增至2021年第三季度的22亿美元。商业客户邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案,PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021年第三季度,PLTR净新增34家新客户,商业客户群环比增加20%,达到203家。过去一年,PLTR的商业客户群扩大了46.04%,客户数量从139个增加到203个,增加了64个。任何仍然将PLTR归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的,因为商业市场正在了解PLTR的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善其运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Steven Fiorillo)(数据来源:Palantir)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年第一季度以来,PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元(71.23%),平均季度环比增长率为9.43%。2021年第三季度,这一趋势保持不变,收入环比增长1610万美元,即4.28%。虽然与2021年第二季度的10.26%相比,季度收入增长环比略有放缓,但PLTR预计2021年第四季度收入将为4.18亿美元。PLTR预计将再创公司纪录,并在年底实现2590万美元(6.61%)的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月(TTM)的总收入。在过去六个季度中,PLTR的TTM收入从8.106亿美元增加到14.3亿美元,增加了6.206亿美元(76.55%)。平均而言,PLTR的TTM收入环比增长1.0342亿美元(9.94%)。在Q1 2020-2020年第三季度,他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元,这一数字大幅增长,因为过去三个季度环比增长了至少1.05亿美元。2021年第三季度,PLTR的TTM收入增加至14.3亿美元,环比收入增长1.068亿美元(8.06%)。就像季度指标一样,PLTR的TTM预计将环比增长9590万美元,达到15.27亿美元,而市场普遍预期为15.1亿美元。这将使PLTR的年收入同比增长远高于30%的预测,因为到2021年,他们的收入将增加4.343亿美元(39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Steven Fiorillo)(数据来源:Palantir)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR是一家高增长公司,目前自由现金流为正,并正在扩大其指标。2020年前9个月,PLTR产生了-2.85亿美元的自由现金流,截至2021年前9个月末,PLTR实现了6.05亿美元的波动,年初至今已产生了3.2亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR此前将2021年自由现金流指引提高至300美元,而他们刚刚再次将其提高至4亿美元以上。在三个月的时间里,PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度,PLTR的自由现金流利润率为30%,预计2021年自由现金流将超过4亿美元。至少,这意味着他们将在2021年额外增加8000万美元的自由现金流。如果PLTR实现15.27亿美元的收入和4亿美元的自由现金流,其2021年的自由现金流利润率将为26.2%。PLTR仍预计到2025年年收入将同比增长30%,根据2021年1.527美元的预测,2025年收入将达到43.6亿美元。按照PLTR目前的自由现金流利润率,他们将在2025年产生11.4亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到PLTR目前的趋势,如果他们超出预测并同比增长35%,那么他们2025年的收入将达到50.7亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率,到2025年,他们将产生13.3亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:PLTR)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全速点火。第三季度收入同比增长36%,第二次将自由现金流指引从3亿美元上调至4亿美元以上,并将年收入增长指引从30%上调至约40%。PLTR仍维持每年30%的未来收入前景,并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润。第三季度PLTR的商业收入同比增长37%,政府收入同比增长34%。PLTR在第三季度完成了至少54笔价值至少100万美元的交易,其中33笔收入至少500万美元,18笔收入至少1000万美元。PLTR的增长指标令人印象深刻,我预计它们未来将低于承诺并超额交付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir正在进入两个巨大的新领域:碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去,我曾写过有关政府、亚马逊(纳斯达克股票代码:AMZN)和国际商业机器公司(纽约证券交易所股票代码:IBM)未来机遇的文章。在今天的收益看涨期权上,PLTR介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密货币提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM) are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to scrub emissions out of the air and carbonate fuel cells to capture industrial emissions from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性转变,拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》,重新参与应对气候变化。该计划的一部分是到2050年实现整个经济的净零排放。最近,拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作,到2030年将全球甲烷总排放量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么,有许多人认为我们需要降低排放,许多国家正在朝着一个目标努力。为了遵守规定,埃克森美孚(纽约证券交易所股票代码:XOM)等公司正在与外部组织对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究,包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获烟道中工业排放的碳酸盐燃料电池发电厂或制造设施的气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务,PLTR正在Foundry上创建一个模块,以提供一个单一的窗格来查看收入、利润、生产和所有排放,以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言,我相信这对于推动PLTR未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Palantir)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密货币代工。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解你的客户的专业知识。多年来,PLTR一直与多个政府合作,寻找全球最大银行的合规问题,并帮助这些银行应对和加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的,当您回到合同时,PLTR已获得IRS和SEC的授予(在之前的文章中讨论过)。仅在第三季度,PLTR就与IRS签署了6份合同。如果让我猜的话,PLTR的软件将被IRS和SEC在政府方面使用,并被银行和加密货币交易所在商业方面采用。目前,在过去24小时内,Coinbase(纳斯达克:COIN)显示比特币(BTC-USD)的交易量为438亿美元。我认为PLTR最终将从其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同中获得未来的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Steven Fiorillo)(数据来源:联邦采购数据库)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>(来源:Palantir)</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其收益并在消息好的时候抛售消息的另一个统计数据。还有人想让PLTR做什么?这是一个出色的季度,第三季度收入同比增长36%,自由现金流为1.19亿美元,利润率为30%,PLTR完成了54笔交易,每笔价值超过100万美元。PLTR超出收入预期,第二次上调全年收入指引,上调自由现金流指引。这是一个基于所有积极因素的卖出消息,这创造了买入机会。我将做多PLTR,如果抛售继续,我计划增加我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。Barbell Capital将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答环节、观察列表和其他功能。我还将拥有一个实时投资组合,致力于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将分配给未来的资本增值投资和投资股息投资,在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129543601","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.\nPalantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.\nPalantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.\nPalantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.\n\nAndreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment\nSome investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.\nWhat wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nPalantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side\nQuarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nSince Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.\nThe same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nI am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.\n(Source: PLTR)\nPLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.\nPalantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto\nIn the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.\nThere has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM) are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to scrub emissions out of the air and carbonate fuel cells to capture industrial emissions from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.\n(Source: Palantir)\nThe second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)\n(Source: Palantir)\nConclusion\nPLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.\nSeeking Alpha Marketplace\nI will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848724236,"gmtCreate":1636031884872,"gmtModify":1636031919542,"author":{"id":"3575186892078860","authorId":"3575186892078860","name":"沈国伟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0b17e6ea7a79f0b333ba3e8faccf34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186892078860","authorIdStr":"3575186892078860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Back to even high price baby!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Back to even high price baby!!!","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$Back to even high price baby!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848724236","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841003633,"gmtCreate":1635861472266,"gmtModify":1635861472350,"author":{"id":"3575186892078860","authorId":"3575186892078860","name":"沈国伟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0b17e6ea7a79f0b333ba3e8faccf34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186892078860","authorIdStr":"3575186892078860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$</a>time for you to move forward","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$</a>time for you to move forward","text":"$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$time for you to move forward","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841003633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825622837,"gmtCreate":1634222768188,"gmtModify":1634222768311,"author":{"id":"3575186892078860","authorId":"3575186892078860","name":"沈国伟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0b17e6ea7a79f0b333ba3e8faccf34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186892078860","authorIdStr":"3575186892078860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Ooooooo upwards all the way","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Ooooooo upwards all the way","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$Ooooooo upwards all the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825622837","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":816475141,"gmtCreate":1630529857783,"gmtModify":1631884679176,"author":{"id":"3575186892078860","authorId":"3575186892078860","name":"沈国伟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b0b17e6ea7a79f0b333ba3e8faccf34","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186892078860","authorIdStr":"3575186892078860"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>hee hee","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>hee hee","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$hee hee","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3aab32e9f3c6209de3ec0d855be816","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816475141","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}