$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$There is a bullish sign for Keppel DC accompanied by recent institutions Inflow(from SGX).It may be a sign of reversal occurring based on TA and chip analysis.$2.44 should continue to hold for this reversal to occur. Failure of reversal would occur if there is an effective breakdown* of $2.44 level.*Effectively breakdown refers to long bearish candle or gap down.
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Spinning off of Debt investmentsYZJ is spinning off and listing its Debt investments arm.As at end of 3rd quarter, YZJ has in book 10,917,649,000CNY (SGD2.3 billion) worth of debt investments. This SDG2.3billion if sell of at book value would mean sell off at about SGD0.59.This cash can be used for 1) Ship building growth2) Capital Reduction via dividend and/or share purchaseWhat if the listing of this arm at IPO price higher than SGD 2.3billion?
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$On 5 Nov 2021, YZJ exercised 5 million share buy back at SGD1.30What may be the implication?From Q3 result, part of its debt investments has been redeemed (SGD1.4B|CNY6.8). This means that YZJ is sitting on cash. Idle cash is costly so it can be reinvested in more shipyards, other businesses or maximised shareholder value through dividend/share repurchase.At $1.30, the management feel its stock is undervalued.The maximum number of share authorised to buy: 394,851,600 Q3 Result is past tense, stock is forward looking. Let me end with this sentence挡风玻璃为什么比后视镜大，因为前面的路比过去的更重要，你可以回头看，但别忘了前行的路...
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Evergrande debt implication on YZJYZJ has limited disclosure on its debt investments. So there is no information showing YZJ actually held Evergrande DebtAnalysis from public available informationSource: YZJ 1H Financial ResultTotal Debt amortised at cost:10,907,170+5,719,110=16,626,280Debt investment as a percentages of total asset:16,626,280/47,334,191 = 35% This means that if all YZJ debt investment get wipe out, 35% of its assets will be goneConcern about Real Estate debt default.About 41% of its debt investments were from real estate sector.0.41 x 16,626,280 = 6,816,774.8Real estate debt investment as a percentage of total asset:6,816,774.8/47,334,191 =14.4%This means that if all YZJ real estate related
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$YZJ from a technical perspectiveYZY business fundamental remains intact and what has changed was just the price.Looking at Picture 1 yzj is still on a uptrend with long term moving averages sloping up+trend line.Looking at Picture 2 yzj is a textbook breakout and retrace to find support at previous resistance around $1.55. It may be due for a rebound based on1) Previous resistance act as a support 2) Stochastic oversold 3) Candle stick pattern of hammer (I don't really look at candle stick pattern actually)However, remember that TA is just a probability.
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Today $1.7x is different from $1.7x in 2017Will look from perspective of Price to Book and all else equal.Look at the Price to Book (PB) ratio:2017: 1.2x PB for price of $1.7x2019: 1.04x PB for price of 1.6x2021: 0.92x PE for price of 1.6xIn 2019, th share price crashed from high was due to one time extraordinary incident. If without this extraordinary event, price may go higher but no one can predict the future.The lower valuation given today may factor in the risk of debt investment and political risk.
$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$Is it worth to revisit?When people talk about Comfortdelgro the first thing come to their mind is Taxis. Private hired cars caused disruption to the industry and is here to stay. One may overstate the impact of Taxi segment of Comfortdelgro. Look at the picture from 2021 1H Financial update. Taxi only account less than 15% of its revenue.More than 70% of its revenue come from its public transport segment. In Singapore the Duopoly (SMRT and SBS) are responsible in our public transport operations. Although there are Goahead and Towertransit, these 2 remain the major players in public transport. The Bus revenue is partially secured with Bus contractual model while Train revenue risk
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Is YZJ Cheap or Expensive?Based on 10 years Discounted CashflowFair value: $1.92With 10% margin: $1.73With 20% margin: $1.54Based on DCF current price of $1.49 still look reasonable.Based on the photoCurrent price relative to historical average still look reasonable.This is shipping industry supercycle so it would not be surprised if the price can be valued between Highest and Average PB/PE
$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$Revenue fall 20% 1H2021 Vs 1H2020Net profit up 39% 1H2021 Vs 1H2020UOB (CIMB) estimateRevenue est: RMB5.4BRevenue actual: RMB 3.9BNet profit est: RMB745m (RMB680-710)Net profit actual:RMB902m Expectations from UOBShipping margin expansion❌Lower trading business✔️