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风立的爸爸
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
11-24
这哥们文章写的比炒股技术好的多
用AI视角看灿谷，矿企重估的开始
在AI数据中心要求的这些方面，灿谷这类矿企反而具备天然优势，矿企的选址逻辑一直都是追求在发电厂附近，电价低、电网稳定、扩容空间大、批文不难。目前AI数据中心迁徙的方向和矿场布局几乎完全重合。矿场改AI/HPC这事儿，不能说谁提前看明白这条路，只能说刚好挖矿这行卷到最后，赶上了AI基建爆发这个风口，一开始都是摸着石头过河，现在行业里有模板了，对灿谷来说是个好事。
用AI视角看灿谷，矿企重估的开始
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
01-07
$灿谷(CANG)$
别骗人买了，上面一堆套牢盘，如果比特币不暴涨的情况下，不可能有好的好的行情了，热度过了之后，至少会阴跌一段时间，详情参见嘉楠科技
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
2021-12-31
$蔚来(NIO)$
多空对决很激烈啊
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
2021-09-10
$RLX科技(RLX)$
来的快去得也快
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
2021-08-17
$灿谷(CANG)$
财报要出了，最后买入机会
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
2021-08-02
$RLX科技(RLX)$
这个股票跟瑞幸共同点不多，瑞幸是财务造假被迫退市，并没有政策风险，也不是新兴产业。电子烟和蔚来倒是有一部分共同点，都是新型行业，不过国家政策支持电动车并不支持电子烟。强如蔚来，也下跌横盘这么久，这个节骨眼上，就别想着买入rlx立刻暴富了。
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
2021-07-29
$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$
清仓了，可以涨了
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
2021-07-23
$灿谷(CANG)$
中概股的问题，先避避险吧，下跌通道
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
2021-07-20
$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$
隔壁ag已经合股了，景顺还会远吗
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风立的爸爸
风立的爸爸
·
2021-07-12
$灿谷(CANG)$
还得跌
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src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2025/56CA93EB9E6CDBDE3162D60CE9A5CDF8862CBBB3_size1929_w1400_h2306.png\"/></p><p>市场给矿企的NAV倍数也基本就这个0.6-1.2这个区间，自持矿场多一些会按照基础设施逻辑，会给到1.5-2.5倍。</p><p>但如果把镜头切到AI/HPC这条赛道，市场最高能给到3-6倍NAV。灿谷现在要讲的新故事越来越像一家未来AI数据中心的承载平台，包括管理层也不断在讲要做能源和AI/HPC这类业务，只是市场反应比它慢半拍。</p><p>之前没有系统研究过数据中心，最近看了下，难怪这波AI浪潮传统IDC感觉连汤都没喝到，AI数据中心和过去IDC不是一个物种。传统机柜3–10kW，现在AI机柜动不动80–120kW，一个小型训练集群能把一个中型企业整栋机房的电直接压垮。</p><p>所以行业现在普遍共识不是缺GPU，而是缺能让GPU通电的地方。Cushman & Wakefield的2025报告提到，北美成熟市场已经全面进入电力短缺，变压器、UPS、switchgear的交付周期普遍拉到30–48周。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2025/BEBAE9BFEBC3A867672D0D2DDEADC3F33F10924D_size180_w1399_h1057.png\"/></p><p>平均每MW的建设成本涨到930–1500万美元，开发商被迫向二三线地区迁移。现在玩的是谁能拿到电，谁才能谈算力，谁能把场站交付出来，谁才能谈AI。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2025/718780C0FE379730F83EFAB5F0922E0B70D2088F_size298_w1399_h833.png\"/></p><p>灿谷过去一年在做的，就是在顺着这套“新物理规律”走，铺算力、买场站，包括重组股东结构、退ADR、直接登录NYSE，从外面看可能不够直观，但从AI/HPC的角度看，感觉是在给未来AI机房打基础。</p><p><strong>AI数据中心是“发电厂逻辑”</strong></p><p>之前我也认为AI数据中心就是“IDC升级版”。但现在AI的算力密度远超过去IDC的想象空间，传统IDC最大痛点是带宽和机房利用率，服务器一塞开始收租。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2025/1BE8AC95EF34541740AE1427B3FFDBB3BD8479EF_size72_w1400_h525.png\"/></p><p>而AI数据中心最大痛点是电力指标、电网接入和冷却系统的极限性能。完全不是一个物种，IDC机房基本被归到轻工业、IT服务，到了AI数据重心属于妥妥的重工业。</p><p>在AI数据中心要求的这些方面，灿谷这类矿企反而具备天然优势，矿企的选址逻辑一直都是追求在发电厂附近，电价低、电网稳定、扩容空间大、批文不难。</p><p>目前AI数据中心迁徙的方向和矿场布局几乎完全重合。以前段时间灿谷收购的乔治亚州50MW场站为例，属于典型的AI数据重心逻辑资产：具备大规模供电、冷却、土地批文、扩容空间，还能直接承接20MW的托管业务。在今天的美国，要从零建一座能吃GPU的机房，这笔账得按千万美元每MW来算，还要排队一年以上等设备交付。灿谷花了不到2000万美元，等于是买到了可以提前交付、能随时改造的电力入口。</p><p>回顾灿谷在过去一年的全球布局，本质就是一套哪里电够、哪里能扩、哪里能短平快建场站的战略地图，与AI/HPC的需求对齐。</p><p><strong>矿企的运维体系，是AI/HPC最难补的课</strong></p><p>矿企最不缺的是把机器跑起来的能力，放在AI圈就是点亮GPU。</p><p>过去几年，矿场绝对是最卷的科技行业，挖矿看似粗暴，但其实是把极端功率密度场景玩到了极致。大规模水冷、浸没式冷却、数万台设备自动化调度、电力负载管理、全球运维体系，这些能力在传统IDC里反而是短板，在AI数据中心里却是核心能力。</p><p>灿谷今年把50EH/s跑到90%+在线率，本身就是一种“硬实力”。AI训练集群最怕掉线，GPU全互联逻辑，一旦通信瓶颈掉几毫秒，训练效率就崩了。所以矿企在这一点上的基因比传统数据中心更贴合未来AI数据中心场景。</p><p>包括浸没式冷却这玩意，让一家IDC去弄得重学，不如直接让矿企来，轻车熟路。</p><p>再一个，现在灿谷都是二手矿机，转型起来也很轻。按照Q2给的数据算，每季度折旧费用在2000万美元左右，节奏基本按照3年摊销逻辑跑。当时很多人还不理解，现在看，严重怀疑当时管理层就想的很清楚，方便赛道切换，轻资产属于战略优势。</p><p>矿机资产价值三年内回归零成本，场站、电力和冷却系统成为留存最久的核心资产。未来灿谷在乔治亚、俄克拉荷马、拉美的这些场站，不需要等矿机退役，它只需要让矿机折旧周期跑完、把部分电力从ASIC挪给GPU，CAPEX就能转向新的AI机房方向。</p><p>资产负债表会变得越来越像基础设施公司的结构，所以我感觉灿谷未来更像IREN、CoreScientific的路径，而不是典型矿企。</p><p><strong>直接上市，准备承接大合同？</strong></p><p>AI客户尤其是云厂、AI独角兽、能源基金，一般只会和“能合作”的公司绑定，这里面合规要求很多，比如股权透明、法律结构简单、财务可审计、融资管道畅通。</p><p>灿谷这一年做的几个动作，感觉也是朝着这个方向努力，从18EH/s的换股完成后，卖方阵营一下子成了41%股东，最大那位Golden TechGen拿着19.85%，背后是Bitmain/Antalpha这一整条“矿机—算力金融”生态。灿谷现在已经被纳入行业供应链里了，产业链能推得动、资源能整合的公司，比如能拿Antalpha的低利率融资，定制适配矿机兼容AI/HPC插拔。</p><p>Galaxy曾经发过一份报告里专门提到，一些ASIC厂商在开发外形类似GPU的矿机Module，比如做成可插拔的服务器板卡，让它能塞进标准19英寸机架。这样一来，矿场主可以用“准数据中心”的方式建设基础设施，以后如果要改AI/HPC，只要替换板卡，而不是重建机房。</p><p>再加上从ADR退掉、直接上NYSE，以及手里6400枚BTC能当成抵押物，这家公司现在的资本结构已经从矿企变成可合作的基础设施载体，接下来再去承接多年期的托管合同就顺理成章了。</p><p>矿场改AI/HPC这事儿，不能说谁提前看明白这条路，只能说刚好挖矿这行卷到最后，赶上了AI基建爆发这个风口，一开始都是摸着石头过河，现在行业里有模板了，对灿谷来说是个好事。</p><p>电力在手、场站在手、冷却和运维体系成熟、折旧路径让资产结构“轻化”，场站可随时改造成AI机房。现在缺的，就是那一张触发市场换估值框架的纸——第一份AI/HPC托管合同。</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>用AI视角看灿谷，矿企重估的开始</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n用AI视角看灿谷，矿企重估的开始\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-22 15:59 北京时间 <a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oUTJyNoODu><strong>钛媒体</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文 | 少年维特过去一年，市场看灿谷的方式多少有中规中矩，还是把它当成一个规模更大的矿企，看50EH/s，算挖矿成本、产币量、BTC持仓。股价基本跟着大饼走势，最近看已经严重破净了……市值5亿刀，还不如手上6644枚BTC值钱，神奇。市场给矿企的NAV倍数也基本就这个0.6-1.2这个区间，自持矿场多一些会按照基础设施逻辑，会给到1.5-2.5倍。但如果把镜头切到AI/HPC这条赛道，市场最高能给...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oUTJyNoODu\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4214":"汽车零售","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4600":"加密货币概念","CANG":"灿谷"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8oUTJyNoODu","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585179696","content_text":"文 | 少年维特过去一年，市场看灿谷的方式多少有中规中矩，还是把它当成一个规模更大的矿企，看50EH/s，算挖矿成本、产币量、BTC持仓。股价基本跟着大饼走势，最近看已经严重破净了……市值5亿刀，还不如手上6644枚BTC值钱，神奇。市场给矿企的NAV倍数也基本就这个0.6-1.2这个区间，自持矿场多一些会按照基础设施逻辑，会给到1.5-2.5倍。但如果把镜头切到AI/HPC这条赛道，市场最高能给到3-6倍NAV。灿谷现在要讲的新故事越来越像一家未来AI数据中心的承载平台，包括管理层也不断在讲要做能源和AI/HPC这类业务，只是市场反应比它慢半拍。之前没有系统研究过数据中心，最近看了下，难怪这波AI浪潮传统IDC感觉连汤都没喝到，AI数据中心和过去IDC不是一个物种。传统机柜3–10kW，现在AI机柜动不动80–120kW，一个小型训练集群能把一个中型企业整栋机房的电直接压垮。所以行业现在普遍共识不是缺GPU，而是缺能让GPU通电的地方。Cushman & Wakefield的2025报告提到，北美成熟市场已经全面进入电力短缺，变压器、UPS、switchgear的交付周期普遍拉到30–48周。平均每MW的建设成本涨到930–1500万美元，开发商被迫向二三线地区迁移。现在玩的是谁能拿到电，谁才能谈算力，谁能把场站交付出来，谁才能谈AI。灿谷过去一年在做的，就是在顺着这套“新物理规律”走，铺算力、买场站，包括重组股东结构、退ADR、直接登录NYSE，从外面看可能不够直观，但从AI/HPC的角度看，感觉是在给未来AI机房打基础。AI数据中心是“发电厂逻辑”之前我也认为AI数据中心就是“IDC升级版”。但现在AI的算力密度远超过去IDC的想象空间，传统IDC最大痛点是带宽和机房利用率，服务器一塞开始收租。而AI数据中心最大痛点是电力指标、电网接入和冷却系统的极限性能。完全不是一个物种，IDC机房基本被归到轻工业、IT服务，到了AI数据重心属于妥妥的重工业。在AI数据中心要求的这些方面，灿谷这类矿企反而具备天然优势，矿企的选址逻辑一直都是追求在发电厂附近，电价低、电网稳定、扩容空间大、批文不难。目前AI数据中心迁徙的方向和矿场布局几乎完全重合。以前段时间灿谷收购的乔治亚州50MW场站为例，属于典型的AI数据重心逻辑资产：具备大规模供电、冷却、土地批文、扩容空间，还能直接承接20MW的托管业务。在今天的美国，要从零建一座能吃GPU的机房，这笔账得按千万美元每MW来算，还要排队一年以上等设备交付。灿谷花了不到2000万美元，等于是买到了可以提前交付、能随时改造的电力入口。回顾灿谷在过去一年的全球布局，本质就是一套哪里电够、哪里能扩、哪里能短平快建场站的战略地图，与AI/HPC的需求对齐。矿企的运维体系，是AI/HPC最难补的课矿企最不缺的是把机器跑起来的能力，放在AI圈就是点亮GPU。过去几年，矿场绝对是最卷的科技行业，挖矿看似粗暴，但其实是把极端功率密度场景玩到了极致。大规模水冷、浸没式冷却、数万台设备自动化调度、电力负载管理、全球运维体系，这些能力在传统IDC里反而是短板，在AI数据中心里却是核心能力。灿谷今年把50EH/s跑到90%+在线率，本身就是一种“硬实力”。AI训练集群最怕掉线，GPU全互联逻辑，一旦通信瓶颈掉几毫秒，训练效率就崩了。所以矿企在这一点上的基因比传统数据中心更贴合未来AI数据中心场景。包括浸没式冷却这玩意，让一家IDC去弄得重学，不如直接让矿企来，轻车熟路。再一个，现在灿谷都是二手矿机，转型起来也很轻。按照Q2给的数据算，每季度折旧费用在2000万美元左右，节奏基本按照3年摊销逻辑跑。当时很多人还不理解，现在看，严重怀疑当时管理层就想的很清楚，方便赛道切换，轻资产属于战略优势。矿机资产价值三年内回归零成本，场站、电力和冷却系统成为留存最久的核心资产。未来灿谷在乔治亚、俄克拉荷马、拉美的这些场站，不需要等矿机退役，它只需要让矿机折旧周期跑完、把部分电力从ASIC挪给GPU，CAPEX就能转向新的AI机房方向。资产负债表会变得越来越像基础设施公司的结构，所以我感觉灿谷未来更像IREN、CoreScientific的路径，而不是典型矿企。直接上市，准备承接大合同？AI客户尤其是云厂、AI独角兽、能源基金，一般只会和“能合作”的公司绑定，这里面合规要求很多，比如股权透明、法律结构简单、财务可审计、融资管道畅通。灿谷这一年做的几个动作，感觉也是朝着这个方向努力，从18EH/s的换股完成后，卖方阵营一下子成了41%股东，最大那位Golden TechGen拿着19.85%，背后是Bitmain/Antalpha这一整条“矿机—算力金融”生态。灿谷现在已经被纳入行业供应链里了，产业链能推得动、资源能整合的公司，比如能拿Antalpha的低利率融资，定制适配矿机兼容AI/HPC插拔。Galaxy曾经发过一份报告里专门提到，一些ASIC厂商在开发外形类似GPU的矿机Module，比如做成可插拔的服务器板卡，让它能塞进标准19英寸机架。这样一来，矿场主可以用“准数据中心”的方式建设基础设施，以后如果要改AI/HPC，只要替换板卡，而不是重建机房。再加上从ADR退掉、直接上NYSE，以及手里6400枚BTC能当成抵押物，这家公司现在的资本结构已经从矿企变成可合作的基础设施载体，接下来再去承接多年期的托管合同就顺理成章了。矿场改AI/HPC这事儿，不能说谁提前看明白这条路，只能说刚好挖矿这行卷到最后，赶上了AI基建爆发这个风口，一开始都是摸着石头过河，现在行业里有模板了，对灿谷来说是个好事。电力在手、场站在手、冷却和运维体系成熟、折旧路径让资产结构“轻化”，场站可随时改造成AI机房。现在缺的，就是那一张触发市场换估值框架的纸——第一份AI/HPC托管合同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CANG":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389823205106056,"gmtCreate":1736179305808,"gmtModify":1736179481383,"author":{"id":"3548915404547470","authorId":"3548915404547470","name":"风立的爸爸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548915404547470","idStr":"3548915404547470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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别骗人买了，上面一堆套牢盘，如果比特币不暴涨的情况下，不可能有好的好的行情了，热度过了之后，至少会阴跌一段时间，详情参见嘉楠科技","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389823205106056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3466599094704347","authorId":"3466599094704347","name":"炼金术学徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee619bfee4d3f0593d7e617b86959318","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3466599094704347","idStr":"3466599094704347"},"content":"真相了，比特币没有大行情，这票起不来。比特币有行情，选择那么多，为什么选它？","text":"真相了，比特币没有大行情，这票起不来。比特币有行情，选择那么多，为什么选它？","html":"真相了，比特币没有大行情，这票起不来。比特币有行情，选择那么多，为什么选它？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692203813,"gmtCreate":1640962928038,"gmtModify":1640962928038,"author":{"id":"3548915404547470","authorId":"3548915404547470","name":"风立的爸爸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548915404547470","idStr":"3548915404547470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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