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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
02-18
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
甲骨文的最悲观假设:若AI数据中心合同全部终止
伯恩斯坦极端压力测试显示,即便OpenAI等AI客户完全撤单,甲骨文仅凭核心数据库与企业云业务仍可支撑每股137美元估值,较当前股价下行空间仅15%,安全边际清晰。研报同时拆解市场担忧:2480亿美元租赁合同年度风险敞口仅130亿至165亿美元,硬件采购灵活且资产通用性强。随着近期融资落地,AI寒冬若不现,风险回报比已极具吸引力。
甲骨文的最悲观假设:若AI数据中心合同全部终止
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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
02-16
特斯拉展示了一种新型价值投资框架:基于愿景而非短期业绩,基于生态系统而非单一产品,基于数据资产而非物理资产
特斯拉的2026,一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌
导语一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量,一边是狂飙突进的AI野心,马斯克在特斯拉史上最差财报发布后,却宣布了一场规模空前的资本豪赌。两款曾经定义特斯拉高端形象的旗舰车型,将在2026年第二季度末停产,让位给名为Optimus的人形机器人生产线。2025年第四季度,当汽车业务持续低迷时,特斯拉储能装机量创下历史新高,14.2GWh的部署量同比增长13.6%;能源业务全年营收128亿美元,同比增长26.6%,连续第五季度创纪录。
特斯拉的2026,一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌
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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
02-16
无良媒体, 马斯克从事的几乎都是人类社会前所未有的全新产业,处于不断的摸索和探索中, 不断探索与创新不断纠偏又不断开拓,有什么奇怪的么? 从新能源汽车到储能,从可回收火箭到starlink,到太空Ai数据中心, 从全自动驾驶到Robotaxi,甚至于boring隧道, 从收购Twitter,创立 XAI 到擎天柱机器人到 脑机接口, 这些看似八杆子打不着的创业为什么最后可以对齐? 甚至可以惊人的创造性服务于更大的目标,?! 其实原因很简单: 正因他的内心最深处, 在他的潜意识里, 他从未背弃他最初的梦想, 让人类成为跨越行星生物以延续人类文明的火种!轨迹有哪一个不是源于少年时期他的梦想而来; 他的使命与愿景其实从未改变过,在此过程中, 不断调整对焦才有最终目标的实现! 为人类社会进步,超越性的 发展, 才有可能有丰盛(abundance) 没有丰盛如何走出地球?! , 不靠金融难道靠乌托邦畅想么?! 其实全部都短期调整以对齐目标, 用“变脸”形容,居心叵测啊 还是燕雀对鸿鹄之志的无知呢? ; 这么多全新产业的整合非常人所能! 你做个四轮定位还得担心摄像头不居中吧! 所以, 马斯克其实还是那个少年, 可以改变人类命运的那个少年!
使命反复“变脸”,马斯克的商业帝国到底在追逐什么
更令人担忧的是其对人类与AI未来的表态。分析认为,马斯克的使命漂移并非出于崇高理想,更多是为迎合投资者、提振股价,同时掺杂个人主观因素。
使命反复“变脸”,马斯克的商业帝国到底在追逐什么
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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
02-06
对特斯拉而言,这次听证会是一次成功的“公关+游说”。虽然参议员对 Autopilot 的名称仍有微词,但**“提升豁免上限”和“对抗中国标准”**已成为两党共识。只要法律能将年部署上限从 2,500 提升到 90,000,特斯拉的 Robotaxi 估值逻辑就将从“实验室产品”正式转向“商业收割期”。
自动驾驶审查打击特斯拉及Waymo
特斯拉(TSLA)周四早盘下跌3.6%。在参议院自动驾驶听证会后,议员质询特斯拉全自动驾驶系统缺少激光雷达与地理围栏;Alphabet旗下Waymo则面临海外制造车辆及远程操控问题,拖累市场情绪。 海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP 责任编辑:张俊 SF065
自动驾驶审查打击特斯拉及Waymo
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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
02-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
对特斯拉而言,这次听证会是一次成功的“公关+游说”。虽然参议员对 Autopilot 的名称仍有微词,但**“提升豁免上限”和“对抗中国标准”**已成为两党共识。只要法律能将年部署上限从 2,500 提升到 90,000,特斯拉的 Robotaxi 估值逻辑就将从“实验室产品”正式转向“商业收割期”。
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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
02-04
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今日FSD听证会
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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
02-04
$西部数据(WDC)$
回购意味着可能会阶段性策略性拉低股价?
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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
02-04
追觅不该先把可回收火箭造出来了再吹么?就是个扫地的咱不能这么狂妄好不好
追觅创始人俞浩:20年后特斯拉会被打到接连亏损 退出市场
快科技2月4日消息,昨晚,追觅科技创始人兼CEO俞浩发布微博,并将矛头对准了特斯拉和马斯克。俞浩称,自己预测20年后特斯拉会成为电动汽车领域的irobot。“(特斯拉)被打到接连亏损和退出电动汽车市场,当然,小马哥不会承认,他会说是自己主动退出的。”俞浩之所以会选择此事对特斯拉发难,大概率是因为特斯拉交付量从快速增长到失速。
追觅创始人俞浩:20年后特斯拉会被打到接连亏损 退出市场
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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
02-03
英伟达毁约open A I、open A I最终很有可能面临破产
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王炸女神
王炸女神
·
01-31
这些分析师目前脑子不止慢半拍而已
特斯拉:SpaceX合并传闻不足以让我保持看涨态度
财报发布后特斯拉股价下跌,这也反映出,投资者认为特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的承诺,尚不足以支撑其再创历史新高。2025 全年,特斯拉汽车业务营收同比下滑 10%。因此,无需过度解读这一决策,特斯拉的汽车业务仍将保持较大规模。同时,特斯拉 Robotaxi 的累计付费行驶里程正快速增长,预计随着落地范围的扩大,这一数据的增长速度还将进一步加快。
特斯拉:SpaceX合并传闻不足以让我保持看涨态度
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22:40","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"甲骨文的最悲观假设:若AI数据中心合同全部终止","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610980947","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯恩斯坦极端压力测试显示,即便OpenAI等AI客户完全撤单,甲骨文仅凭核心数据库与企业云业务仍可支撑每股137美元估值,较当前股价下行空间仅15%,安全边际清晰。研报同时拆解市场担忧:2480亿美元租赁合同年度风险敞口仅130亿至165亿美元,硬件采购灵活且资产通用性强。随着近期融资落地,AI寒冬若不现,风险回报比已极具吸引力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>针对市场对客户集中度与资本开支的持续担忧,伯恩斯坦在最新研报中对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>进行极端情景压力测试:若OpenAI等AI客户完全撤单,公司价值几何?</p><p>据追风交易台,研报的模型构建了一个“近乎最坏”的下行假设:自2025财年第四季度以来签约的所有AI合同,包括OpenAI的巨额订单均无法转化为收入,客户既不履约也不续约。与此同时,核心数据库、SaaS及非AI的OCI业务保持正常增长。</p><p>在此极端设定下,伯恩斯坦估算甲骨文估值底线为每股137美元,较当前约160美元的水平仅存在15%的下行空间,为投资者提供了清晰的安全边际。而在乐观情景下,若执行顺利,目标价上看313美元。</p><p>结论呈现极强不对称性。<strong>即便剔除全部AI相关收入,仅凭核心企业级业务,甲骨文仍可支撑稳健估值。</strong>伯恩斯坦认为,<strong>市场对AI客户依赖度与资本支出压力的担忧已被过度定价,当前风险收益比具备吸引力</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_1628504604\">2480亿美元租赁负债并非“不可承受之重”</h2><p>伯恩斯坦进一步拆解了市场对甲骨文巨额数据中心租赁合同的担忧。投资者最恐惧的情景是,若客户违约,甲骨文将被迫承担高达2480亿美元的闲置成本。但研报指出,这一风险被显著高估。</p><p>首先,这些租赁合同期限长达15至19年,产能分批上线直至2030财年,<strong>年度最大风险敞口实际仅为130亿至165亿美元,且要到2030年才触及峰值</strong>。其次,<strong>只要全球未陷入“AI寒冬”,数据中心需求仍将维持高位,甲骨文完全有能力将闲置空间自用或转租。</strong></p><p>更重要的是,即便撇开生成式AI,全球IaaS/PaaS市场的潜在规模已达1.2万亿至1.4万亿美元,传统企业云迁移所消耗的数据中心容量足以吸纳这些租赁空间。换言之,<strong>甲骨文的长期合同结构具备充分缓冲垫,市场对其资本承诺的恐慌缺乏实质性支撑。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1959266225\">硬件风险可控 不会被GPU库存“套牢”</h2><p>针对市场担忧的硬件资本支出风险,伯恩斯坦指出其实际敞口十分有限。服务器与GPU的采购周期通常在产能上线前3至6个月,若客户取消合同,甲骨文可在交付前灵活取消或推迟订单,且无需承担重大罚金。</p><p><strong>即便硬件已交付,大部分计算资产如存储、网络及内存设备仍具备高度通用性</strong>,可无缝转用于传统SaaS及OCI业务。研报进一步估算,每1美元AI年收入对应约2至2.5美元的计算资产,资产寿命为6年,这意味着即使发生客户违约,最多仅有1至2年的计算支出面临风险。整体而言,<strong>硬件资本支出的沉淀风险被明显高估。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3623244935\">核心业务的强劲基本面</h2><p>伯恩斯坦在最新模型中进一步剥离AI业务,清晰勾勒出甲骨文核心业务的独立价值。<strong>即便完全剔除AI数据中心相关收入,仅凭传统数据库、SaaS及OCI业务,公司到2030财年的总收入仍可达1010亿美元。</strong></p><p>更关键的是,在承担为AI基础设施所筹债务(包括近期250亿美元融资)的利息成本后,其每股收益仍有能力实现9.0美元。参照<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">SAP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>等软件同业27.3倍的市盈率水平,这一盈利预期对应的估值即为每股137美元。换言之,<strong>即便AI业务完全归零,甲骨文仅靠核心业务也能支撑当前股价约85%的安全边际,足见其基础业务的现金生成能力之稳固。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b17158db054fd883feeba7abdb89b02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"574\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d75990450c2f8cf8f37d0aa287f191d3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"578\"/></p><p>伯恩斯坦认为,<strong>当前甲骨文股价已过度计价悲观预期,风险回报比正进入极具吸引力的区间。</strong>随着近期约250亿美元债务及等量股权融资落地,数据中心建设的资金瓶颈已实质性解除。研报强调,只要全球不陷入“AI寒冬”的极端情景,当前估值水平为投资者提供了充分的安全边际与不对称的收益潜力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n甲骨文的最悲观假设:若AI数据中心合同全部终止\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-12 22:40 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765603><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>针对市场对客户集中度与资本开支的持续担忧,伯恩斯坦在最新研报中对甲骨文进行极端情景压力测试:若OpenAI等AI客户完全撤单,公司价值几何?据追风交易台,研报的模型构建了一个“近乎最坏”的下行假设:自2025财年第四季度以来签约的所有AI合同,包括OpenAI的巨额订单均无法转化为收入,客户既不履约也不续约。与此同时,核心数据库、SaaS及非AI的OCI业务保持正常增长。在此极端设定下,伯恩斯坦...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765603\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c35c8a27605936ee42c5dc8842ec36a","relate_stocks":{"IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) USD","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4543":"AI","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765603","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2610980947","content_text":"针对市场对客户集中度与资本开支的持续担忧,伯恩斯坦在最新研报中对甲骨文进行极端情景压力测试:若OpenAI等AI客户完全撤单,公司价值几何?据追风交易台,研报的模型构建了一个“近乎最坏”的下行假设:自2025财年第四季度以来签约的所有AI合同,包括OpenAI的巨额订单均无法转化为收入,客户既不履约也不续约。与此同时,核心数据库、SaaS及非AI的OCI业务保持正常增长。在此极端设定下,伯恩斯坦估算甲骨文估值底线为每股137美元,较当前约160美元的水平仅存在15%的下行空间,为投资者提供了清晰的安全边际。而在乐观情景下,若执行顺利,目标价上看313美元。结论呈现极强不对称性。即便剔除全部AI相关收入,仅凭核心企业级业务,甲骨文仍可支撑稳健估值。伯恩斯坦认为,市场对AI客户依赖度与资本支出压力的担忧已被过度定价,当前风险收益比具备吸引力。2480亿美元租赁负债并非“不可承受之重”伯恩斯坦进一步拆解了市场对甲骨文巨额数据中心租赁合同的担忧。投资者最恐惧的情景是,若客户违约,甲骨文将被迫承担高达2480亿美元的闲置成本。但研报指出,这一风险被显著高估。首先,这些租赁合同期限长达15至19年,产能分批上线直至2030财年,年度最大风险敞口实际仅为130亿至165亿美元,且要到2030年才触及峰值。其次,只要全球未陷入“AI寒冬”,数据中心需求仍将维持高位,甲骨文完全有能力将闲置空间自用或转租。更重要的是,即便撇开生成式AI,全球IaaS/PaaS市场的潜在规模已达1.2万亿至1.4万亿美元,传统企业云迁移所消耗的数据中心容量足以吸纳这些租赁空间。换言之,甲骨文的长期合同结构具备充分缓冲垫,市场对其资本承诺的恐慌缺乏实质性支撑。硬件风险可控 不会被GPU库存“套牢”针对市场担忧的硬件资本支出风险,伯恩斯坦指出其实际敞口十分有限。服务器与GPU的采购周期通常在产能上线前3至6个月,若客户取消合同,甲骨文可在交付前灵活取消或推迟订单,且无需承担重大罚金。即便硬件已交付,大部分计算资产如存储、网络及内存设备仍具备高度通用性,可无缝转用于传统SaaS及OCI业务。研报进一步估算,每1美元AI年收入对应约2至2.5美元的计算资产,资产寿命为6年,这意味着即使发生客户违约,最多仅有1至2年的计算支出面临风险。整体而言,硬件资本支出的沉淀风险被明显高估。核心业务的强劲基本面伯恩斯坦在最新模型中进一步剥离AI业务,清晰勾勒出甲骨文核心业务的独立价值。即便完全剔除AI数据中心相关收入,仅凭传统数据库、SaaS及OCI业务,公司到2030财年的总收入仍可达1010亿美元。更关键的是,在承担为AI基础设施所筹债务(包括近期250亿美元融资)的利息成本后,其每股收益仍有能力实现9.0美元。参照微软、SAP、Salesforce等软件同业27.3倍的市盈率水平,这一盈利预期对应的估值即为每股137美元。换言之,即便AI业务完全归零,甲骨文仅靠核心业务也能支撑当前股价约85%的安全边际,足见其基础业务的现金生成能力之稳固。伯恩斯坦认为,当前甲骨文股价已过度计价悲观预期,风险回报比正进入极具吸引力的区间。随着近期约250亿美元债务及等量股权融资落地,数据中心建设的资金瓶颈已实质性解除。研报强调,只要全球不陷入“AI寒冬”的极端情景,当前估值水平为投资者提供了充分的安全边际与不对称的收益潜力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCS":0.6,"ORCU":0.6,"ORCL":1.97,"ORCX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533267918108168,"gmtCreate":1771213314636,"gmtModify":1771213317237,"author":{"id":"3548665181418139","authorId":"3548665181418139","name":"王炸女神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a680106e60d4cdced54bd0f61f1cc44","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548665181418139","idStr":"3548665181418139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"特斯拉展示了一种新型价值投资框架:基于愿景而非短期业绩,基于生态系统而非单一产品,基于数据资产而非物理资产","listText":"特斯拉展示了一种新型价值投资框架:基于愿景而非短期业绩,基于生态系统而非单一产品,基于数据资产而非物理资产","text":"特斯拉展示了一种新型价值投资框架:基于愿景而非短期业绩,基于生态系统而非单一产品,基于数据资产而非物理资产","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533267918108168","repostId":"2611117635","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2611117635","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771072860,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2611117635?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-14 20:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉的2026,一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2611117635","media":"行业研究报告","summary":"导语一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量,一边是狂飙突进的AI野心,马斯克在特斯拉史上最差财报发布后,却宣布了一场规模空前的资本豪赌。两款曾经定义特斯拉高端形象的旗舰车型,将在2026年第二季度末停产,让位给名为Optimus的人形机器人生产线。2025年第四季度,当汽车业务持续低迷时,特斯拉储能装机量创下历史新高,14.2GWh的部署量同比增长13.6%;能源业务全年营收128亿美元,同比增长26.6%,连续第五季度创纪录。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>导语</strong></p><p>一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量,一边是狂飙突进的AI野心,马斯克在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>史上最差财报发布后,却宣布了一场规模空前的资本豪赌。</p><p><strong>今日免费下载:</strong>2025节能与新能源汽车技术路线图</p><p>来源:格隆</p><p>作者:路易新经济</p><p>“现在是时候让Model S和Model X项目<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09998\">光荣</a>退役了。”</p><p>2026年1月28日美东时间下午,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2025年第四季度财报电话会议上平静地宣布了这一决定。</p><p>就在几分钟前,特斯拉方才公布了公司史上首次年度营收下滑——2025年总营收948.27亿美元,同比下降3%,<span>净利润</span>同比暴跌46%。两款曾经定义特斯拉高端形象的旗舰车型,将在2026年第二季度末停产,让位给名为Optimus的人形机器人生产线。</p><p>尽管2025年特斯拉全球交付量163.6万辆,同比下降8.6%,首次被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的226万辆超越,但市场反应却有些微妙:先是在财报公布后的1月29日大跌3.45%,然后又在科技股集体暴跌的1月30日,却逆势上涨了3.32%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260214212218143d206cqtkk7k3yw2\"/><p>显然,市场对于特斯拉这一场豪赌的态度,似乎也充满了矛盾和分化。</p><p><strong>一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量,一边是狂飙突进的</strong>AI野心,市场究竟该相信哪一边?</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p>财报中的“真相”</p><p>从表面看,特斯拉的2025年成绩单充满危机。</p><p>汽车业务收入695.26亿美元,同比下降10%;在三大主要市场,特斯拉都面临压力:美国市场销量同比下降超10%,欧洲市场前11个月注册量下降39%,中国市场销量62.6万辆,同比下降4.8%。</p><p>汽车销售这个市场认知中的“主营业务”,眼下成为拉低公司总营收的主要板块。</p><p><strong>但冰冷的整体数据背后,</strong><strong>好像</strong><strong>隐藏着业务结构的质变。</strong></p><p>2025年第四季度,当汽车业务持续低迷时,特斯拉储能装机量创下历史新高,14.2GWh的部署量同比增长13.6%;能源业务全年营收128亿美元,同比增长26.6%,连续第五季度创纪录。</p><p>更值得关注的是,FSD(全自动驾驶)订阅业务呈现爆发式增长。2025年末,FSD有效订阅用户达110万,同比增长40%,占累计交付量的约12%;在韩国上线仅一个月,当地用户的智能辅助驾驶行驶里程便突破100万公里。</p><p>显然,特斯拉正在两条截然不同的轨道上狂奔。<strong>一条是</strong><strong>竞争对手环伺、</strong><strong>日益拥挤的电动车赛道,另一条是刚刚起步的物理</strong>AI世界。</p><p>与此同时,也正是在这份“史上最差”财报的电话会议上,马斯克还宣布了将进行一场规模空前的资本豪赌的消息——<strong>2026年资本支出将超过200亿美元。</strong></p><p>200亿美元,对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>等巨头来说或许并不算什么,但对于特斯拉来说已是创纪录的水平,相当于特斯拉2025年全年净利润的5倍多。</p><p>这些资金将集中投向AI芯片、超算集群、机器人生产线和储能设施。</p><p>或者市场更关注的是,这可能是一个马斯克要在物理AI世界加速狂奔的信号(资本投入向其他科技巨头看齐)。</p><p>马斯克甚至将公司使命更新为“创造惊人的富足”,并断言道:</p><p>“我看到了特斯拉成为全球最有价值公司的路径。”</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>200亿美元资本开支的背后</p><p>马斯克“空前”的资本开支,决策背后究竟是什么?</p><p>问题的答案,就隐藏在特斯拉各个业务线的连接处。</p><p>在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区,特斯拉Robotaxi车队已超过500辆,并在2026年1月于奥斯汀正式开启无安全员的完全无人驾驶试运行。特斯拉自研的AI5与AI6推理芯片已取得进展,计划分别于2027年和2028年投产,其中AI5目标性能较AI4提升约50倍。</p><p>更值得关注的是,特斯拉正在得克萨斯州超级工厂打造Cortex 2算力集群,2026年上半年,得州超级工厂的本地算力规模将提升超一倍。</p><p>物理学中,“相变”指物质从一种形态到另一种形态的突变。而特斯拉似乎就正在经历一场商业领域的“相变”。</p><p>2025年,特斯拉首次明确将自己定位为“物理世界AI公司”。<strong>马斯克的愿景是创建一个闭环系统:特斯拉车辆在实际道路行驶中产生<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">海量数据</a>,数据训练</strong>AI算法,优化后的算法通过OTA更新推送至车辆,提升自动驾驶能力,进而吸引更多用户使用FSD,产生更多数据。</p><p>如今,这个商业“相变”的飞轮,正在马斯克的掌舵之下加速旋转。</p><p>截至2025年底,FSD累计行驶里程已突破70亿英里,仅第四季度就贡献了10亿英里的增量;马斯克曾界定的“完全无人化”门槛约为100亿英里,特斯拉已完成70%的进程。</p><p><strong>人形机器人</strong>Optimus则是这个闭环的延伸。特斯拉计划在2026年年底前启动量产,最终规划年产能为100万台。</p><p>马斯克甚至宣称,Optimus未来能实现5倍于人类的工作效率,成为“非凡的外科医生”。</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>悲观派与乐观派的对决</p><p>特斯拉股价在暴跌后又逆市上涨的背后,实则完美诠释了投资者对公司的分歧。</p><p><strong>而</strong><strong>这种分化背后是两种不同的估值逻辑</strong>。</p><p>传统汽车制造商估值的核心指标是销量、产能利用率和单车利润。</p><p>按此标准,特斯拉的估值难言合理。2025年,特斯拉市盈率高达418倍,远高于传统车企。</p><p>但AI乐观主义者认为,特斯拉应被视为一家AI公司,其商业逻辑的核心从“卖车”变成了追求“最低的每英里成本”和极高的“<span>资产</span>利用率”,因此其价值应基于数据优势、算法迭代速度和网络效应。</p><p>William Blair能源研究团队主管杰德·多西海默估计,自动驾驶技术现在占特斯拉总价值的70%以上。</p><p>这种分歧也体现在分析师对特斯拉的态度上。</p><p>近期50位分析师中有30位建议“持有”或“卖出”,显示出专业投资者对特斯拉转型前景的谨慎态度。</p><p>这种分歧的本源其实并非难以理解:</p><p><strong>伟大公司往往死于范式转移,而生还者必须主动引领范式转移。</strong></p><p>传统汽车产业正面临百年未有的变局。2025年,欧洲电动汽车约占所有新车销量的16%,美国电动汽车市场整体放缓。当行业从增量市场进入存量市场,价格战和利润下滑成为必然。</p><p>马斯克的应对之策是典型的第二曲线战略:在核心业务尚未衰退时,主动培育新兴业务。但特斯拉的不同之处在于,其新旧业务之间存在强大的协同效应。</p><p>汽车业务为AI发展提供真实道路数据、品牌认知和现金流;储能业务为AI基础设施提供稳定能源支持;AI技术反过来提升汽车产品的竞争力和溢价能力。<strong>这种生态化反效应是特斯拉最深的护城河。</strong></p><p><strong>然而,历史表明,范式转移的成功率极低</strong>。比如,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">柯达</a>发明了数码相机却未能成功转型,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>曾引领智能手机潮流但最终掉队。</p><p>特斯拉能否打破这一魔咒?</p><p>关键取决于其AI技术商业化的速度与效率。</p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p>结语:投资价值的重新定义</p><p>特斯拉的2025年,对价值投资者提出了一个深刻问题:什么是真正的“价值”?</p><p>是当前的盈利能力,还是未来的产业地位?</p><p>是稳定的现金流,还是颠覆性的增长潜力?</p><p>传统价值投资强调“安全边际”,即价格与内在价值之间的缓冲空间。</p><p>但在新兴科技行业,内在价值本身难以量化,安全边际更多体现在技术领先性、生态构建能力和团队执行力上。</p><p>特斯拉展示了一种新型价值投资框架:基于愿景而非短期业绩,基于生态系统而非单一产品,基于数据资产而非物理资产。</p><p>这种框架下,特斯拉的业绩下滑不再是致命危机,而是转型阵痛,200亿美元的资本支出也不是盲目冒险,而是战略必需。</p><p>因为,它主动选择了一条虽然更艰难但前景更广阔的道路。</p><p><strong>推荐阅读:</strong></p><p><strong>1、</strong>A股三次大牛市:启动、上涨与终结</p><p><strong>2、</strong>有色之后,又一超级大周期来了</p><p><strong>3、</strong>买黄金,要大变了!</p><p><strong>4、</strong>当小县城开始大搞“演唱会”</p><p><strong>5、</strong>123亿,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02020\">安踏</a>买下对手</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉的2026,一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉的2026,一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-14 20:41 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260214212227a4a48b32&s=b><strong>行业研究报告</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>导语一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量,一边是狂飙突进的AI野心,马斯克在特斯拉史上最差财报发布后,却宣布了一场规模空前的资本豪赌。今日免费下载:2025节能与新能源汽车技术路线图来源:格隆作者:路易新经济“现在是时候让Model S和Model X项目光荣退役了。”2026年1月28日美东时间下午,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2025年第四季度财报电话会议上平静地宣布了这一决定。就在几分钟前,特斯拉方才公布...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260214212227a4a48b32&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A 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X项目光荣退役了。”2026年1月28日美东时间下午,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2025年第四季度财报电话会议上平静地宣布了这一决定。就在几分钟前,特斯拉方才公布了公司史上首次年度营收下滑——2025年总营收948.27亿美元,同比下降3%,净利润同比暴跌46%。两款曾经定义特斯拉高端形象的旗舰车型,将在2026年第二季度末停产,让位给名为Optimus的人形机器人生产线。尽管2025年特斯拉全球交付量163.6万辆,同比下降8.6%,首次被比亚迪的226万辆超越,但市场反应却有些微妙:先是在财报公布后的1月29日大跌3.45%,然后又在科技股集体暴跌的1月30日,却逆势上涨了3.32%。显然,市场对于特斯拉这一场豪赌的态度,似乎也充满了矛盾和分化。一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量,一边是狂飙突进的AI野心,市场究竟该相信哪一边?01财报中的“真相”从表面看,特斯拉的2025年成绩单充满危机。汽车业务收入695.26亿美元,同比下降10%;在三大主要市场,特斯拉都面临压力:美国市场销量同比下降超10%,欧洲市场前11个月注册量下降39%,中国市场销量62.6万辆,同比下降4.8%。汽车销售这个市场认知中的“主营业务”,眼下成为拉低公司总营收的主要板块。但冰冷的整体数据背后,好像隐藏着业务结构的质变。2025年第四季度,当汽车业务持续低迷时,特斯拉储能装机量创下历史新高,14.2GWh的部署量同比增长13.6%;能源业务全年营收128亿美元,同比增长26.6%,连续第五季度创纪录。更值得关注的是,FSD(全自动驾驶)订阅业务呈现爆发式增长。2025年末,FSD有效订阅用户达110万,同比增长40%,占累计交付量的约12%;在韩国上线仅一个月,当地用户的智能辅助驾驶行驶里程便突破100万公里。显然,特斯拉正在两条截然不同的轨道上狂奔。一条是竞争对手环伺、日益拥挤的电动车赛道,另一条是刚刚起步的物理AI世界。与此同时,也正是在这份“史上最差”财报的电话会议上,马斯克还宣布了将进行一场规模空前的资本豪赌的消息——2026年资本支出将超过200亿美元。200亿美元,对于谷歌、微软、苹果等巨头来说或许并不算什么,但对于特斯拉来说已是创纪录的水平,相当于特斯拉2025年全年净利润的5倍多。这些资金将集中投向AI芯片、超算集群、机器人生产线和储能设施。或者市场更关注的是,这可能是一个马斯克要在物理AI世界加速狂奔的信号(资本投入向其他科技巨头看齐)。马斯克甚至将公司使命更新为“创造惊人的富足”,并断言道:“我看到了特斯拉成为全球最有价值公司的路径。”02200亿美元资本开支的背后马斯克“空前”的资本开支,决策背后究竟是什么?问题的答案,就隐藏在特斯拉各个业务线的连接处。在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区,特斯拉Robotaxi车队已超过500辆,并在2026年1月于奥斯汀正式开启无安全员的完全无人驾驶试运行。特斯拉自研的AI5与AI6推理芯片已取得进展,计划分别于2027年和2028年投产,其中AI5目标性能较AI4提升约50倍。更值得关注的是,特斯拉正在得克萨斯州超级工厂打造Cortex 2算力集群,2026年上半年,得州超级工厂的本地算力规模将提升超一倍。物理学中,“相变”指物质从一种形态到另一种形态的突变。而特斯拉似乎就正在经历一场商业领域的“相变”。2025年,特斯拉首次明确将自己定位为“物理世界AI公司”。马斯克的愿景是创建一个闭环系统:特斯拉车辆在实际道路行驶中产生海量数据,数据训练AI算法,优化后的算法通过OTA更新推送至车辆,提升自动驾驶能力,进而吸引更多用户使用FSD,产生更多数据。如今,这个商业“相变”的飞轮,正在马斯克的掌舵之下加速旋转。截至2025年底,FSD累计行驶里程已突破70亿英里,仅第四季度就贡献了10亿英里的增量;马斯克曾界定的“完全无人化”门槛约为100亿英里,特斯拉已完成70%的进程。人形机器人Optimus则是这个闭环的延伸。特斯拉计划在2026年年底前启动量产,最终规划年产能为100万台。马斯克甚至宣称,Optimus未来能实现5倍于人类的工作效率,成为“非凡的外科医生”。03悲观派与乐观派的对决特斯拉股价在暴跌后又逆市上涨的背后,实则完美诠释了投资者对公司的分歧。而这种分化背后是两种不同的估值逻辑。传统汽车制造商估值的核心指标是销量、产能利用率和单车利润。按此标准,特斯拉的估值难言合理。2025年,特斯拉市盈率高达418倍,远高于传统车企。但AI乐观主义者认为,特斯拉应被视为一家AI公司,其商业逻辑的核心从“卖车”变成了追求“最低的每英里成本”和极高的“资产利用率”,因此其价值应基于数据优势、算法迭代速度和网络效应。William Blair能源研究团队主管杰德·多西海默估计,自动驾驶技术现在占特斯拉总价值的70%以上。这种分歧也体现在分析师对特斯拉的态度上。近期50位分析师中有30位建议“持有”或“卖出”,显示出专业投资者对特斯拉转型前景的谨慎态度。这种分歧的本源其实并非难以理解:伟大公司往往死于范式转移,而生还者必须主动引领范式转移。传统汽车产业正面临百年未有的变局。2025年,欧洲电动汽车约占所有新车销量的16%,美国电动汽车市场整体放缓。当行业从增量市场进入存量市场,价格战和利润下滑成为必然。马斯克的应对之策是典型的第二曲线战略:在核心业务尚未衰退时,主动培育新兴业务。但特斯拉的不同之处在于,其新旧业务之间存在强大的协同效应。汽车业务为AI发展提供真实道路数据、品牌认知和现金流;储能业务为AI基础设施提供稳定能源支持;AI技术反过来提升汽车产品的竞争力和溢价能力。这种生态化反效应是特斯拉最深的护城河。然而,历史表明,范式转移的成功率极低。比如,柯达发明了数码相机却未能成功转型,诺基亚曾引领智能手机潮流但最终掉队。特斯拉能否打破这一魔咒?关键取决于其AI技术商业化的速度与效率。04结语:投资价值的重新定义特斯拉的2025年,对价值投资者提出了一个深刻问题:什么是真正的“价值”?是当前的盈利能力,还是未来的产业地位?是稳定的现金流,还是颠覆性的增长潜力?传统价值投资强调“安全边际”,即价格与内在价值之间的缓冲空间。但在新兴科技行业,内在价值本身难以量化,安全边际更多体现在技术领先性、生态构建能力和团队执行力上。特斯拉展示了一种新型价值投资框架:基于愿景而非短期业绩,基于生态系统而非单一产品,基于数据资产而非物理资产。这种框架下,特斯拉的业绩下滑不再是致命危机,而是转型阵痛,200亿美元的资本支出也不是盲目冒险,而是战略必需。因为,它主动选择了一条虽然更艰难但前景更广阔的道路。推荐阅读:1、A股三次大牛市:启动、上涨与终结2、有色之后,又一超级大周期来了3、买黄金,要大变了!4、当小县城开始大搞“演唱会”5、123亿,安踏买下对手","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TESL":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSDD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533267481379128,"gmtCreate":1771213140742,"gmtModify":1771213146163,"author":{"id":"3548665181418139","authorId":"3548665181418139","name":"王炸女神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a680106e60d4cdced54bd0f61f1cc44","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548665181418139","idStr":"3548665181418139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"无良媒体, 马斯克从事的几乎都是人类社会前所未有的全新产业,处于不断的摸索和探索中, 不断探索与创新不断纠偏又不断开拓,有什么奇怪的么? 从新能源汽车到储能,从可回收火箭到starlink,到太空Ai数据中心, 从全自动驾驶到Robotaxi,甚至于boring隧道, 从收购Twitter,创立 XAI 到擎天柱机器人到 脑机接口, 这些看似八杆子打不着的创业为什么最后可以对齐? 甚至可以惊人的创造性服务于更大的目标,?! 其实原因很简单: 正因他的内心最深处, 在他的潜意识里, 他从未背弃他最初的梦想, 让人类成为跨越行星生物以延续人类文明的火种!轨迹有哪一个不是源于少年时期他的梦想而来; 他的使命与愿景其实从未改变过,在此过程中, 不断调整对焦才有最终目标的实现! 为人类社会进步,超越性的 发展, 才有可能有丰盛(abundance) 没有丰盛如何走出地球?! , 不靠金融难道靠乌托邦畅想么?! 其实全部都短期调整以对齐目标, 用“变脸”形容,居心叵测啊 还是燕雀对鸿鹄之志的无知呢? ; 这么多全新产业的整合非常人所能! 你做个四轮定位还得担心摄像头不居中吧! 所以, 马斯克其实还是那个少年, 可以改变人类命运的那个少年!","listText":"无良媒体, 马斯克从事的几乎都是人类社会前所未有的全新产业,处于不断的摸索和探索中, 不断探索与创新不断纠偏又不断开拓,有什么奇怪的么? 从新能源汽车到储能,从可回收火箭到starlink,到太空Ai数据中心, 从全自动驾驶到Robotaxi,甚至于boring隧道, 从收购Twitter,创立 XAI 到擎天柱机器人到 脑机接口, 这些看似八杆子打不着的创业为什么最后可以对齐? 甚至可以惊人的创造性服务于更大的目标,?! 其实原因很简单: 正因他的内心最深处, 在他的潜意识里, 他从未背弃他最初的梦想, 让人类成为跨越行星生物以延续人类文明的火种!轨迹有哪一个不是源于少年时期他的梦想而来; 他的使命与愿景其实从未改变过,在此过程中, 不断调整对焦才有最终目标的实现! 为人类社会进步,超越性的 发展, 才有可能有丰盛(abundance) 没有丰盛如何走出地球?! , 不靠金融难道靠乌托邦畅想么?! 其实全部都短期调整以对齐目标, 用“变脸”形容,居心叵测啊 还是燕雀对鸿鹄之志的无知呢? ; 这么多全新产业的整合非常人所能! 你做个四轮定位还得担心摄像头不居中吧! 所以, 马斯克其实还是那个少年, 可以改变人类命运的那个少年!","text":"无良媒体, 马斯克从事的几乎都是人类社会前所未有的全新产业,处于不断的摸索和探索中, 不断探索与创新不断纠偏又不断开拓,有什么奇怪的么? 从新能源汽车到储能,从可回收火箭到starlink,到太空Ai数据中心, 从全自动驾驶到Robotaxi,甚至于boring隧道, 从收购Twitter,创立 XAI 到擎天柱机器人到 脑机接口, 这些看似八杆子打不着的创业为什么最后可以对齐? 甚至可以惊人的创造性服务于更大的目标,?! 其实原因很简单: 正因他的内心最深处, 在他的潜意识里, 他从未背弃他最初的梦想, 让人类成为跨越行星生物以延续人类文明的火种!轨迹有哪一个不是源于少年时期他的梦想而来; 他的使命与愿景其实从未改变过,在此过程中, 不断调整对焦才有最终目标的实现! 为人类社会进步,超越性的 发展, 才有可能有丰盛(abundance) 没有丰盛如何走出地球?! , 不靠金融难道靠乌托邦畅想么?! 其实全部都短期调整以对齐目标, 用“变脸”形容,居心叵测啊 还是燕雀对鸿鹄之志的无知呢? ; 这么多全新产业的整合非常人所能! 你做个四轮定位还得担心摄像头不居中吧! 所以, 马斯克其实还是那个少年, 可以改变人类命运的那个少年!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533267481379128","repostId":"2611147527","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2611147527","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771120781,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2611147527?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-15 09:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"使命反复“变脸”,马斯克的商业帝国到底在追逐什么","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2611147527","media":"环球网","summary":"更令人担忧的是其对人类与AI未来的表态。分析认为,马斯克的使命漂移并非出于崇高理想,更多是为迎合投资者、提振股价,同时掺杂个人主观因素。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【环球网科技综合报道】2月15日消息,据外媒Gizmodo报道,多年来,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克旗下企业的使命与定位频繁更迭,从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>的发展方向到SpaceX的星际目标,再到对人类与AI未来的判断,其表态始终充满矛盾,引发外界广泛质疑,背后或暗藏金钱与个人情绪的双重驱动。</p><img src=\"https://img.huanqiucdn.cn/dp/api/files/imageDir/75d3ed59f9b3b8566dd20f39563e2406u1.png?imageView2/2/w/1260\"/><p>Tesla的使命迭代最为典型。2019年,其使命是“加速世界向可持续能源的转型”,强调环保与员工公平;2025年9月更新为“可持续富足”;而上个月,马斯克又将其改为“惊人富足”,宣称AI与机器人将带来“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>高收入”未来,与早年环保导向判若两人。同时,他还宣称Tesla并非汽车公司,而是机器人公司,计划停产Model S和X,年产100万台Optimus机器人。</p><p>SpaceX的目标同样反复。马斯克近期突然宣布,公司重心转向“在月球建造自增长城市”,虽称最终仍将推进火星城市建设,但时间线模糊,类似其多年来未兑现的“飞行汽车”承诺,被指依赖公众的短期记忆炒作。此外,他还将xAI与SpaceX合并,宣称36个月内太空将成为部署AI最廉价的场所,为公司上市铺路。</p><p>更令人担忧的是其对人类与AI未来的表态。马斯克在播客中称,未来5-6年AI智能将超越人类总和,人类智能占比将不足1%,且难以掌控AI,却又宣称AI会因“好奇心”保留人类,言论自相矛盾。</p><p>分析认为,马斯克的使命漂移并非出于崇高理想,更多是为迎合投资者、提振股价,同时掺杂个人主观因素。从Tesla到SpaceX,从AI到星际探索,其不断变脸的表态,或本质上都是围绕金钱与个人情绪展开。(旺旺)</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>使命反复“变脸”,马斯克的商业帝国到底在追逐什么</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n使命反复“变脸”,马斯克的商业帝国到底在追逐什么\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-15 09:59 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260215100034a6fcebec&s=b><strong>环球网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【环球网科技综合报道】2月15日消息,据外媒Gizmodo报道,多年来,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克旗下企业的使命与定位频繁更迭,从Tesla的发展方向到SpaceX的星际目标,再到对人类与AI未来的判断,其表态始终充满矛盾,引发外界广泛质疑,背后或暗藏金钱与个人情绪的双重驱动。Tesla的使命迭代最为典型。2019年,其使命是“加速世界向可持续能源的转型”,强调环保与员工公平;2025年9月更新为“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260215100034a6fcebec&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","BK4555":"新能源车","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income 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S和X,年产100万台Optimus机器人。SpaceX的目标同样反复。马斯克近期突然宣布,公司重心转向“在月球建造自增长城市”,虽称最终仍将推进火星城市建设,但时间线模糊,类似其多年来未兑现的“飞行汽车”承诺,被指依赖公众的短期记忆炒作。此外,他还将xAI与SpaceX合并,宣称36个月内太空将成为部署AI最廉价的场所,为公司上市铺路。更令人担忧的是其对人类与AI未来的表态。马斯克在播客中称,未来5-6年AI智能将超越人类总和,人类智能占比将不足1%,且难以掌控AI,却又宣称AI会因“好奇心”保留人类,言论自相矛盾。分析认为,马斯克的使命漂移并非出于崇高理想,更多是为迎合投资者、提振股价,同时掺杂个人主观因素。从Tesla到SpaceX,从AI到星际探索,其不断变脸的表态,或本质上都是围绕金钱与个人情绪展开。(旺旺)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSDD":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLA":1.91,"CRSH":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529618299335608,"gmtCreate":1770322229352,"gmtModify":1770322908238,"author":{"id":"3548665181418139","authorId":"3548665181418139","name":"王炸女神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a680106e60d4cdced54bd0f61f1cc44","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548665181418139","idStr":"3548665181418139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"对特斯拉而言,这次听证会是一次成功的“公关+游说”。虽然参议员对 Autopilot 的名称仍有微词,但**“提升豁免上限”和“对抗中国标准”**已成为两党共识。只要法律能将年部署上限从 2,500 提升到 90,000,特斯拉的 Robotaxi 估值逻辑就将从“实验室产品”正式转向“商业收割期”。","listText":"对特斯拉而言,这次听证会是一次成功的“公关+游说”。虽然参议员对 Autopilot 的名称仍有微词,但**“提升豁免上限”和“对抗中国标准”**已成为两党共识。只要法律能将年部署上限从 2,500 提升到 90,000,特斯拉的 Robotaxi 估值逻辑就将从“实验室产品”正式转向“商业收割期”。","text":"对特斯拉而言,这次听证会是一次成功的“公关+游说”。虽然参议员对 Autopilot 的名称仍有微词,但**“提升豁免上限”和“对抗中国标准”**已成为两党共识。只要法律能将年部署上限从 2,500 提升到 90,000,特斯拉的 Robotaxi 估值逻辑就将从“实验室产品”正式转向“商业收割期”。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529618299335608","repostId":"2609307862","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2609307862","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770307680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2609307862?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-06 00:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"自动驾驶审查打击特斯拉及Waymo","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2609307862","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"特斯拉(TSLA)周四早盘下跌3.6%。在参议院自动驾驶听证会后,议员质询特斯拉全自动驾驶系统缺少激光雷达与地理围栏;Alphabet旗下Waymo则面临海外制造车辆及远程操控问题,拖累市场情绪。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:张俊 SF065","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> <span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></span><span></span>(TSLA)周四早盘下跌3.6%。在参议院自动驾驶听证会后,议员质询特斯拉全自动驾驶系统缺少激光雷达与地理围栏;Alphabet旗下Waymo则面临海外制造车辆及远程操控问题,拖累市场情绪。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑:张俊 SF065</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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}\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n自动驾驶审查打击特斯拉及Waymo\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-06 00:08 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-02-06/doc-inhkuyhv8558865.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉(TSLA)周四早盘下跌3.6%。在参议院自动驾驶听证会后,议员质询特斯拉全自动驾驶系统缺少激光雷达与地理围栏;Alphabet旗下Waymo则面临海外制造车辆及远程操控问题,拖累市场情绪。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:张俊 SF065</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-02-06/doc-inhkuyhv8558865.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4543":"AI","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC 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估值逻辑就将从“实验室产品”正式转向“商业收割期”。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529604292134456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529126701056160,"gmtCreate":1770217359672,"gmtModify":1770217361612,"author":{"id":"3548665181418139","authorId":"3548665181418139","name":"王炸女神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a680106e60d4cdced54bd0f61f1cc44","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548665181418139","idStr":"3548665181418139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 今日FSD听证会","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 今日FSD听证会","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今日FSD听证会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529126701056160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":529011281474416,"gmtCreate":1770184401277,"gmtModify":1770184403351,"author":{"id":"3548665181418139","authorId":"3548665181418139","name":"王炸女神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a680106e60d4cdced54bd0f61f1cc44","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548665181418139","idStr":"3548665181418139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">$西部数据(WDC)$ </a> 回购意味着可能会阶段性策略性拉低股价?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">$西部数据(WDC)$ </a> 回购意味着可能会阶段性策略性拉低股价?","text":"$西部数据(WDC)$ 回购意味着可能会阶段性策略性拉低股价?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/529011281474416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":528890074731368,"gmtCreate":1770154809000,"gmtModify":1770154811390,"author":{"id":"3548665181418139","authorId":"3548665181418139","name":"王炸女神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a680106e60d4cdced54bd0f61f1cc44","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548665181418139","idStr":"3548665181418139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"追觅不该先把可回收火箭造出来了再吹么?就是个扫地的咱不能这么狂妄好不好","listText":"追觅不该先把可回收火箭造出来了再吹么?就是个扫地的咱不能这么狂妄好不好","text":"追觅不该先把可回收火箭造出来了再吹么?就是个扫地的咱不能这么狂妄好不好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528890074731368","repostId":"2608803236","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608803236","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770134460,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2608803236?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-04 00:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"追觅创始人俞浩:20年后特斯拉会被打到接连亏损 退出市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608803236","media":"快科技","summary":"快科技2月4日消息,昨晚,追觅科技创始人兼CEO俞浩发布微博,并将矛头对准了特斯拉和马斯克。俞浩称,自己预测20年后特斯拉会成为电动汽车领域的irobot。“(特斯拉)被打到接连亏损和退出电动汽车市场,当然,小马哥不会承认,他会说是自己主动退出的。”俞浩之所以会选择此事对特斯拉发难,大概率是因为特斯拉交付量从快速增长到失速。","content":"<html><body><article><p>快科技2月4日消息,昨晚,追觅科技创始人兼CEO俞浩发布微博,并将矛头对准了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>和马斯克。</p><p>俞浩称,<strong>自己预测20年后特斯拉会成为电动汽车领域的irobot(快科技注:指被誉为扫地机器人鼻祖的美国公司,现已破产,被中国企业收购)</strong>。</p><p>“(特斯拉)<strong>被打到接连亏损和退出电动汽车市场,当然,小马哥不会承认,他会说是自己主动退出的。</strong>”俞浩如此表述道。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260204000633065d206lq5q0uij1bp\"/><p>同时在评论区,他还给出了自己预测20年的理由:“马斯克还是很强的,也不会倒那么快,20年还是比较理性的。”</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260204000637971d206wvouy2yhvuw\"/><p>更有意思的是,他同时还配上用AI生成的假想图,<strong>图里一男子(俞浩本人)身着西装站在楼顶,手里端着一杯红酒优雅非常,而在他身后,则是科幻感质素的未来住宅以及交通工具</strong>。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260204000641277d206qx09saf4o9v\"/><p>俞浩之所以会选择此事对特斯拉发难,大概率是因为特斯拉交付量从快速增长到失速。</p><p><strong>去年特斯拉全球市场交付163.6万辆,其中在第四季度仅交付41.8万辆,同比下降15.6%,因此失去纯电动车(狭义新能源车)全球销量的第一桂冠</strong>。</p><p>更让人意外的是,虽然特斯拉2025年交付<span>量比</span>2022年高32.2万辆,但毛利润却少了81亿美元,下降45.7%;<span>净利润</span>也不过38.6亿美元、利润率仅4.1%,对于全球估值最高的车企而言,这样的成绩属实有点难堪。</p><p>不过需要说明的是,瘦死的骆驼比马大,<strong>纵使特斯拉暂时遭遇了一些问题,但鉴于FSD的日益成熟、自动驾驶出租车队伍逐渐壮大以及人形机器人的到来,特斯拉未来增量仍旧不可估量</strong>,个人认为它20年内倒闭的可能性并不大。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>追觅创始人俞浩:20年后特斯拉会被打到接连亏损 退出市场</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n追觅创始人俞浩:20年后特斯拉会被打到接连亏损 退出市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-04 00:01 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260204000646a6cf2ffa&s=b><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快科技2月4日消息,昨晚,追觅科技创始人兼CEO俞浩发布微博,并将矛头对准了特斯拉和马斯克。俞浩称,自己预测20年后特斯拉会成为电动汽车领域的irobot(快科技注:指被誉为扫地机器人鼻祖的美国公司,现已破产,被中国企业收购)。“(特斯拉)被打到接连亏损和退出电动汽车市场,当然,小马哥不会承认,他会说是自己主动退出的。”俞浩如此表述道。同时在评论区,他还给出了自己预测20年的理由:“马斯克还是很强...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260204000646a6cf2ffa&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4588":"碎股","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) 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SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260204000646a6cf2ffa&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2608803236","content_text":"快科技2月4日消息,昨晚,追觅科技创始人兼CEO俞浩发布微博,并将矛头对准了特斯拉和马斯克。俞浩称,自己预测20年后特斯拉会成为电动汽车领域的irobot(快科技注:指被誉为扫地机器人鼻祖的美国公司,现已破产,被中国企业收购)。“(特斯拉)被打到接连亏损和退出电动汽车市场,当然,小马哥不会承认,他会说是自己主动退出的。”俞浩如此表述道。同时在评论区,他还给出了自己预测20年的理由:“马斯克还是很强的,也不会倒那么快,20年还是比较理性的。”更有意思的是,他同时还配上用AI生成的假想图,图里一男子(俞浩本人)身着西装站在楼顶,手里端着一杯红酒优雅非常,而在他身后,则是科幻感质素的未来住宅以及交通工具。俞浩之所以会选择此事对特斯拉发难,大概率是因为特斯拉交付量从快速增长到失速。去年特斯拉全球市场交付163.6万辆,其中在第四季度仅交付41.8万辆,同比下降15.6%,因此失去纯电动车(狭义新能源车)全球销量的第一桂冠。更让人意外的是,虽然特斯拉2025年交付量比2022年高32.2万辆,但毛利润却少了81亿美元,下降45.7%;净利润也不过38.6亿美元、利润率仅4.1%,对于全球估值最高的车企而言,这样的成绩属实有点难堪。不过需要说明的是,瘦死的骆驼比马大,纵使特斯拉暂时遭遇了一些问题,但鉴于FSD的日益成熟、自动驾驶出租车队伍逐渐壮大以及人形机器人的到来,特斯拉未来增量仍旧不可估量,个人认为它20年内倒闭的可能性并不大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLI":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3503842177147009","authorId":"3503842177147009","name":"柯大虾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4606c51db444d9801b7075be851a3a41","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3503842177147009","idStr":"3503842177147009"},"content":"国内的经常习惯性吹牛,当然这家伙明显就是蹭热点的。","text":"国内的经常习惯性吹牛,当然这家伙明显就是蹭热点的。","html":"国内的经常习惯性吹牛,当然这家伙明显就是蹭热点的。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":528653407371848,"gmtCreate":1770096338637,"gmtModify":1770096341080,"author":{"id":"3548665181418139","authorId":"3548665181418139","name":"王炸女神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a680106e60d4cdced54bd0f61f1cc44","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548665181418139","idStr":"3548665181418139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达毁约open A I、open A I最终很有可能面临破产","listText":"英伟达毁约open A I、open A I最终很有可能面临破产","text":"英伟达毁约open A I、open A I最终很有可能面临破产","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528653407371848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":527434246223040,"gmtCreate":1769789096367,"gmtModify":1769789098493,"author":{"id":"3548665181418139","authorId":"3548665181418139","name":"王炸女神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a680106e60d4cdced54bd0f61f1cc44","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548665181418139","idStr":"3548665181418139"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这些分析师目前脑子不止慢半拍而已","listText":"这些分析师目前脑子不止慢半拍而已","text":"这些分析师目前脑子不止慢半拍而已","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527434246223040","repostId":"2607017653","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2607017653","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769771474,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2607017653?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-30 19:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉:SpaceX合并传闻不足以让我保持看涨态度","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607017653","media":"美股研究社","summary":"财报发布后特斯拉股价下跌,这也反映出,投资者认为特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的承诺,尚不足以支撑其再创历史新高。2025 全年,特斯拉汽车业务营收同比下滑 10%。因此,无需过度解读这一决策,特斯拉的汽车业务仍将保持较大规模。同时,特斯拉 Robotaxi 的累计付费行驶里程正快速增长,预计随着落地范围的扩大,这一数据的增长速度还将进一步加快。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><p>尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>具备巨大的发展潜力,上行趋势也尚未被打破,分析师仍决定将其评级从<strong>买入下调至持有</strong>,当前对特斯拉持中性态度。财报发布后特斯拉股价下跌,这也反映出,投资者认为特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的承诺,尚不足以支撑其再创历史新高。</p><p>简而言之,分析师选择保持谨慎,希望看到自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)和擎天柱(Optimus)人形机器人项目取得更多实质性进展后,再做出最终判断。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcPgia7DNCvbkZ2UW7icKia7iaEBYibLoBH9m2tvI6bkqbEh7NtGPic58BHcsA/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>SpaceX</strong></p><p><strong>与特斯拉合并的预期</strong></p><p><strong>若 SpaceX 与特斯拉合并,无疑将成为行业重磅事件,但坦率地说,这则最新消息并未改变分析师的核心观点,原因有三:</strong></p><p><strong>1.目前仅为传闻,落地概率极低</strong>:分析师坚信,SpaceX 与特斯拉独立上市的总市值,将高于合并后的市值 —— 部分愿意投资 SpaceX 的投资者,并不希望同时持有特斯拉。</p><p><strong>2.合并或引发多元化折价</strong>:特斯拉 CEO 埃隆・马斯克大概率不愿看到公司出现这一情况。所谓多元化折价,指市场对多元化企业的估值,往往低于其各业务板块独立估值之和,这通常源于企业财报披露的复杂性,或内部管理效率的低下。一旦合并,特斯拉出现多元化折价的可能性极高。</p><p><strong>3.双方无需合并即可实现协同</strong>:特斯拉与 SpaceX 即便不合并,也能展开深度合作、互利共赢。马斯克作为两家公司的所有者,早已能从双方的项目协作中获益,合并并非必要前提。</p><p>相较而言,SpaceX 与 xAI 的合并可能性更高:一方面 xAI 规模更小,合并后不易引发多元化折价;另一方面,马斯克虽未正面回应这一传闻,但在 X 平台的相关帖子下的回复,隐约透露出对这一合并的认可,不过这仍属于市场猜测。</p><p>只有当出现确凿证据(而非单纯传闻),证明 SpaceX 确实计划与特斯拉合并时,分析师的观点才会改变。届时合并预期或为特斯拉带来短期上涨动力,分析师也会考虑短期入场追涨,但目前来看,这一情况并不成立,且分析师并不认为二者会合并。</p><p>厘清这一问题后,我们来分析特斯拉 2025 年第四季度的财报表现。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>Q4财报表现不尽如人意</strong></p><p>特斯拉 2025 年第四季度营收 249 亿美元(超预期 1.4 亿美元),非 GAAP <span>每股收益</span> 0.50 美元(超预期 0.05 美元),但即便业绩超预期,核心财务数据仍显疲软:</p><p>· 营收<strong>同比下滑 3.1%</strong>,非 GAAP 每股收益<strong>同比下滑 17%</strong>;</p><p>· 经营活动现金流同比下降 21%,自由现金流大跌 30% 至 14.2 亿美元;</p><p>·核心的汽车业务营收同比暴跌 11% 至 176.93 亿美元,尽管能源生产与存储业务营收同比增长 25% 至 38.37 亿美元、服务及其他业务同比增长 18% 至 33.71 亿美元,但仍无法抵消汽车业务的下滑拖累。</p><p>财报中唯一的亮点是,尽管销量下滑,公司总毛利润仍同比增长 20%,毛利率从 16.3% 提升至 20.1%;但包括营业利润率、调整后 <span>EBITDA</span> 利润率、净利润率在内的其余盈利指标,均出现不同程度下滑。</p><p><strong>汽车业务正在走向衰落?</strong></p><p>特斯拉的汽车业务正缓慢衰落,但考虑到公司对 Robotaxi 的布局 —— 在其看来,这一业务会降低消费者的购车需求,特斯拉管理层或许对此并不担忧。</p><p>2025 全年,特斯拉汽车业务营收同比下滑 10%。诚然,经济不确定性会影响汽车销量,但这一表现远逊于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a> 1.3% 的同比降幅。尽管 2025 年 9 月 30 日 7500 美元的电动车税收抵免政策到期,但其并非特斯拉销量疲软的唯一原因,毕竟公司今年早些时候的销量表现就已不尽如人意。</p><p>此外,从个人角度来看,特斯拉多数车型的外观设计长期缺乏新意,这一点对汽车销量的影响不容忽视。即便是焕新后的 Model Y,外观也并无明显变化。</p><p>特斯拉在车型外观设计上的创新严重不足,而对于汽车销售而言,外观设计的重要性并不亚于技术创新。究其原因,或许是公司的精力全被机器人和 Robotaxi 项目占据,汽车业务已不再是发展重点。</p><p>这一说法并非夸大其词,马斯克明确表示,下一季度将逐步停产 Model S 和 Model X:</p><p>是时候让 Model S 和 Model X 项目体面落幕了…… 我们计划下一季度逐步停止这两款车型的生产,并将该产线改造为擎天柱机器人的生产工厂。长远来看,我们希望在弗里蒙特工厂的这一区域,实现擎天柱机器人年产 100 万台的目标。</p><p>未来,特斯拉将仅保留四款在售车型:Model Y、Model 3、赛博卡车和 Roadster。</p><p><strong>停产 Model S 和 Model X 影响几何?</strong></p><p>坦率地说,这一决策的影响并不大。市场上有看空观点认为,特斯拉是在牺牲盈利业务,投资尚未被验证的新项目,但实际情况是,Model 3 和 Model Y 仍会继续销售,且 2025 年这两款车型的产量占比已达 96.7%。</p><p>因此,无需过度解读这一决策,特斯拉的汽车业务仍将保持较大规模。分析师对该业务唯一的建议是,特斯拉应考虑对车型进行彻底的外观改款,而非简单的 “焕新升级”。</p><p><strong>布局未来是正确的选择</strong></p><p>正如前文所言,单看特斯拉第四季度的财报,很难让人感到满意,但我们也应客观看待:擎天柱机器人和 Robotaxi 确实具备巨大的发展潜力,特斯拉大举投资这两大领域合情合理,更何况公司具备充足的资金实力。</p><p>特斯拉管理层预计,2026 年资本开支将超 200 亿美元,较 2025 年的 85.27 亿美元大幅增长。</p><p>特斯拉首席财务官维巴夫・塔内加透露了资本开支的主要去向:</p><p>这些资金将用于 6 座工厂的建设,包括炼油厂、磷酸铁锂电池工厂、Cybercab 工厂、Semi 半挂卡车工厂、新的超级工厂以及擎天柱机器人工厂。此外,我们还将投入资金建设人工智能计算基础设施,持续升级现有工厂以提升产能,搭建相关配套基础设施,并进一步扩大 Robotaxi 和擎天柱机器人的研发与量产规模。</p><p>尽管资本开支数额庞大,但我们认为,这是公司为下一发展阶段布局的正确战略。正如马斯克所言,我们将以极高的资本效率推进这些投资。</p><p><strong>擎天柱机器人的发展潜力</strong></p><p>在 2025 年第四季度的股东报告中,特斯拉重点介绍了擎天柱机器人的研发进展,宣布计划于本季度发布第三代产品。据悉,第三代擎天柱在 2.5 代的基础上进行了重大升级,也是首款为大规模量产设计的机型。</p><p>公司目标是在 2026 年底前启动量产,并最终实现<strong>年产 100 万台</strong>的产能目标。</p><p>尽管特斯拉向来对项目进度过于乐观,但分析师并不怀疑其能在近期实现擎天柱机器人的大规模量产 —— 押注特斯拉的创新能力不足,向来不是明智的选择。</p><p><strong>Robotaxi 的发展潜力</strong></p><p>自 2025 年 12 月起,特斯拉的无人驾驶 Robotaxi 已在奥斯汀投入运营,本月更是在部分路段取消了随车安全监督员。有消息称,这些无人驾驶车辆仍有安全车随行,马斯克在此次财报电话会议中否认了这一说法:</p><p>大概从昨天开始,奥斯汀的 Robotaxi 已经完全没有安全车随行,这些车辆真正实现了车内无人、车外无跟随的纯无人驾驶。</p><p>无论是否相信马斯克的说法,分析师选择采信。若其所言属实,这将是特斯拉自动驾驶发展的重要里程碑。</p><p>同时,特斯拉 Robotaxi 的累计付费行驶里程正快速增长,预计随着落地范围的扩大,这一数据的增长速度还将进一步加快。特斯拉计划在 2026 年上半年,将 Robotaxi 的运营范围拓展至另外 7 座主要城市。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>对机器人与自动驾驶项目的看法</strong></p><p>尽管特斯拉的前沿项目落地进度慢于预期,但不可否认其正稳步推进,目前下最终结论仍为时过早,整体前景值得期待。分析师认为,到下一季度,我们就能更清晰地判断 Robotaxi 是否具备规模化运营的可行性:若奥斯汀的无监督无人驾驶能顺利放量,就证明这一模式是可行的;而一旦技术得到验证,以特斯拉的实力,后续的规模化落地将相对容易。如今特斯拉正临近这一关键转折点,其背后的商业价值巨大。</p><p>相较而言,擎天柱机器人的商业化落地需要更长时间,或许还需数个季度,我们才能看清其发展轨迹。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>特斯拉的估值依旧高起</strong></p><p>谈及特斯拉,必然要提及其高得离谱的估值:过去 12 个月,公司每股收益仅 1.67 美元,静态市盈率高达 249 倍;静态自由现金流为 62.2 亿美元,对应 1.38 万亿美元的市值,自由现金流市盈率约 222 倍。</p><p>但市场几乎从未在意过这一估值水平,因为特斯拉的估值并非基于当前业绩,而是其未来的发展潜力 —— 这一潜力虽难以量化,却真实存在。例如,Precedence Research 的一项研究显示,全球 Robotaxi 市场规模 2024 年为 27.7 亿美元,2025 年预计增至 44.3 亿美元,2034 年或将达到 1889.1 亿美元,2025-2034 年的复合年增长率高达 52.54%。</p><p>而这还只是 Robotaxi 一个业务的市场潜力,因此,切勿以传统车企的估值逻辑来衡量特斯拉。</p><p>这也是特斯拉 2026 年豪掷 200 亿美元投资高增长项目的原因,正是这些前沿布局支撑着公司的高估值。一旦特斯拉将发展重点重新放回汽车业务,市场就会将其视作普通车企,届时公司股价或将遭遇暴跌。</p><p>市场情绪是推动特斯拉上涨的核心因素,相较单一的估值指标,我们更应关注情绪变化 —— 尽管分析师承认,当前市值已充分反映了公司的未来预期。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>仍处上行趋势,</strong></p><p><strong>但预警信号已现</strong></p><p>从技术面来看,特斯拉仍在创造更高的高点和低点,最近的阶段性低点为 11 月 14 日的 382.78 美元,上行趋势在技术层面仍保持完好,分析师并不建议做空该股。</p><p>但当前已出现明确的预警信号:尽管管理层在财报电话会议中释放了诸多利好,但财报发布后特斯拉股价仍下跌 3.45%。在 Robotaxi 项目取得更明确的进展,且市场开始认可其价值之前,分析师并不建议<span>抄底</span>特斯拉。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHhRRxZSMCgct6u1I78kxibwhqmibvLOuA21iarw6F4CrPibNXUWOK5PkdaQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结论</strong></p><p>特斯拉目前正处于一个尴尬的境地:短期财务表现疲软,而长期前沿项目虽稳步推进、足以支撑股价,但现阶段仍难以做出确定性判断。如今的特斯拉,估值高企、未来尚存不确定性,且财报发布后的市场表现不尽如人意。</p><p>同时,分析师并不认为 SpaceX 与特斯拉的合并会落地,这一传闻不足以让分析师将其评级调回买入。此外,分析师去年 3 月提出的期权投资策略已完成兑现,当前特斯拉的风险收益比已出现不利变化。</p><p>基于以上原因,分析师将特斯拉的评级从<strong>买入下调至持有</strong>。目前,分析师会等待更多证据证明 Robotaxi 具备无监督规模化运营的能力,同时持续关注合并传闻的后续进展。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=other&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=5\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKnkt8t5QpwjNQOKyGlZz4SFiacicdM3aP4hZVCfGia7HbIYBoDxz2gubPAgoXDXhfrcLIfT2eG92icfw/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=7\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉:SpaceX合并传闻不足以让我保持看涨态度</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉:SpaceX合并传闻不足以让我保持看涨态度\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-30 19:11 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260130195832a6c02756&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】尽管特斯拉具备巨大的发展潜力,上行趋势也尚未被打破,分析师仍决定将其评级从买入下调至持有,当前对特斯拉持中性态度。财报发布后特斯拉股价下跌,这也反映出,投资者认为特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的承诺,尚不足以支撑其再创历史新高。简而言之,分析师选择保持谨慎,希望看到自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)和擎天柱(Optimus)人形机器人项目取得更多实质性进展后,再做出最终判断...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260130195832a6c02756&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) 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INC","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260130195832a6c02756&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2607017653","content_text":"【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】尽管特斯拉具备巨大的发展潜力,上行趋势也尚未被打破,分析师仍决定将其评级从买入下调至持有,当前对特斯拉持中性态度。财报发布后特斯拉股价下跌,这也反映出,投资者认为特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的承诺,尚不足以支撑其再创历史新高。简而言之,分析师选择保持谨慎,希望看到自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)和擎天柱(Optimus)人形机器人项目取得更多实质性进展后,再做出最终判断。SpaceX与特斯拉合并的预期若 SpaceX 与特斯拉合并,无疑将成为行业重磅事件,但坦率地说,这则最新消息并未改变分析师的核心观点,原因有三:1.目前仅为传闻,落地概率极低:分析师坚信,SpaceX 与特斯拉独立上市的总市值,将高于合并后的市值 —— 部分愿意投资 SpaceX 的投资者,并不希望同时持有特斯拉。2.合并或引发多元化折价:特斯拉 CEO 埃隆・马斯克大概率不愿看到公司出现这一情况。所谓多元化折价,指市场对多元化企业的估值,往往低于其各业务板块独立估值之和,这通常源于企业财报披露的复杂性,或内部管理效率的低下。一旦合并,特斯拉出现多元化折价的可能性极高。3.双方无需合并即可实现协同:特斯拉与 SpaceX 即便不合并,也能展开深度合作、互利共赢。马斯克作为两家公司的所有者,早已能从双方的项目协作中获益,合并并非必要前提。相较而言,SpaceX 与 xAI 的合并可能性更高:一方面 xAI 规模更小,合并后不易引发多元化折价;另一方面,马斯克虽未正面回应这一传闻,但在 X 平台的相关帖子下的回复,隐约透露出对这一合并的认可,不过这仍属于市场猜测。只有当出现确凿证据(而非单纯传闻),证明 SpaceX 确实计划与特斯拉合并时,分析师的观点才会改变。届时合并预期或为特斯拉带来短期上涨动力,分析师也会考虑短期入场追涨,但目前来看,这一情况并不成立,且分析师并不认为二者会合并。厘清这一问题后,我们来分析特斯拉 2025 年第四季度的财报表现。Q4财报表现不尽如人意特斯拉 2025 年第四季度营收 249 亿美元(超预期 1.4 亿美元),非 GAAP 每股收益 0.50 美元(超预期 0.05 美元),但即便业绩超预期,核心财务数据仍显疲软:· 营收同比下滑 3.1%,非 GAAP 每股收益同比下滑 17%;· 经营活动现金流同比下降 21%,自由现金流大跌 30% 至 14.2 亿美元;·核心的汽车业务营收同比暴跌 11% 至 176.93 亿美元,尽管能源生产与存储业务营收同比增长 25% 至 38.37 亿美元、服务及其他业务同比增长 18% 至 33.71 亿美元,但仍无法抵消汽车业务的下滑拖累。财报中唯一的亮点是,尽管销量下滑,公司总毛利润仍同比增长 20%,毛利率从 16.3% 提升至 20.1%;但包括营业利润率、调整后 EBITDA 利润率、净利润率在内的其余盈利指标,均出现不同程度下滑。汽车业务正在走向衰落?特斯拉的汽车业务正缓慢衰落,但考虑到公司对 Robotaxi 的布局 —— 在其看来,这一业务会降低消费者的购车需求,特斯拉管理层或许对此并不担忧。2025 全年,特斯拉汽车业务营收同比下滑 10%。诚然,经济不确定性会影响汽车销量,但这一表现远逊于通用汽车 1.3% 的同比降幅。尽管 2025 年 9 月 30 日 7500 美元的电动车税收抵免政策到期,但其并非特斯拉销量疲软的唯一原因,毕竟公司今年早些时候的销量表现就已不尽如人意。此外,从个人角度来看,特斯拉多数车型的外观设计长期缺乏新意,这一点对汽车销量的影响不容忽视。即便是焕新后的 Model Y,外观也并无明显变化。特斯拉在车型外观设计上的创新严重不足,而对于汽车销售而言,外观设计的重要性并不亚于技术创新。究其原因,或许是公司的精力全被机器人和 Robotaxi 项目占据,汽车业务已不再是发展重点。这一说法并非夸大其词,马斯克明确表示,下一季度将逐步停产 Model S 和 Model X:是时候让 Model S 和 Model X 项目体面落幕了…… 我们计划下一季度逐步停止这两款车型的生产,并将该产线改造为擎天柱机器人的生产工厂。长远来看,我们希望在弗里蒙特工厂的这一区域,实现擎天柱机器人年产 100 万台的目标。未来,特斯拉将仅保留四款在售车型:Model Y、Model 3、赛博卡车和 Roadster。停产 Model S 和 Model X 影响几何?坦率地说,这一决策的影响并不大。市场上有看空观点认为,特斯拉是在牺牲盈利业务,投资尚未被验证的新项目,但实际情况是,Model 3 和 Model Y 仍会继续销售,且 2025 年这两款车型的产量占比已达 96.7%。因此,无需过度解读这一决策,特斯拉的汽车业务仍将保持较大规模。分析师对该业务唯一的建议是,特斯拉应考虑对车型进行彻底的外观改款,而非简单的 “焕新升级”。布局未来是正确的选择正如前文所言,单看特斯拉第四季度的财报,很难让人感到满意,但我们也应客观看待:擎天柱机器人和 Robotaxi 确实具备巨大的发展潜力,特斯拉大举投资这两大领域合情合理,更何况公司具备充足的资金实力。特斯拉管理层预计,2026 年资本开支将超 200 亿美元,较 2025 年的 85.27 亿美元大幅增长。特斯拉首席财务官维巴夫・塔内加透露了资本开支的主要去向:这些资金将用于 6 座工厂的建设,包括炼油厂、磷酸铁锂电池工厂、Cybercab 工厂、Semi 半挂卡车工厂、新的超级工厂以及擎天柱机器人工厂。此外,我们还将投入资金建设人工智能计算基础设施,持续升级现有工厂以提升产能,搭建相关配套基础设施,并进一步扩大 Robotaxi 和擎天柱机器人的研发与量产规模。尽管资本开支数额庞大,但我们认为,这是公司为下一发展阶段布局的正确战略。正如马斯克所言,我们将以极高的资本效率推进这些投资。擎天柱机器人的发展潜力在 2025 年第四季度的股东报告中,特斯拉重点介绍了擎天柱机器人的研发进展,宣布计划于本季度发布第三代产品。据悉,第三代擎天柱在 2.5 代的基础上进行了重大升级,也是首款为大规模量产设计的机型。公司目标是在 2026 年底前启动量产,并最终实现年产 100 万台的产能目标。尽管特斯拉向来对项目进度过于乐观,但分析师并不怀疑其能在近期实现擎天柱机器人的大规模量产 —— 押注特斯拉的创新能力不足,向来不是明智的选择。Robotaxi 的发展潜力自 2025 年 12 月起,特斯拉的无人驾驶 Robotaxi 已在奥斯汀投入运营,本月更是在部分路段取消了随车安全监督员。有消息称,这些无人驾驶车辆仍有安全车随行,马斯克在此次财报电话会议中否认了这一说法:大概从昨天开始,奥斯汀的 Robotaxi 已经完全没有安全车随行,这些车辆真正实现了车内无人、车外无跟随的纯无人驾驶。无论是否相信马斯克的说法,分析师选择采信。若其所言属实,这将是特斯拉自动驾驶发展的重要里程碑。同时,特斯拉 Robotaxi 的累计付费行驶里程正快速增长,预计随着落地范围的扩大,这一数据的增长速度还将进一步加快。特斯拉计划在 2026 年上半年,将 Robotaxi 的运营范围拓展至另外 7 座主要城市。对机器人与自动驾驶项目的看法尽管特斯拉的前沿项目落地进度慢于预期,但不可否认其正稳步推进,目前下最终结论仍为时过早,整体前景值得期待。分析师认为,到下一季度,我们就能更清晰地判断 Robotaxi 是否具备规模化运营的可行性:若奥斯汀的无监督无人驾驶能顺利放量,就证明这一模式是可行的;而一旦技术得到验证,以特斯拉的实力,后续的规模化落地将相对容易。如今特斯拉正临近这一关键转折点,其背后的商业价值巨大。相较而言,擎天柱机器人的商业化落地需要更长时间,或许还需数个季度,我们才能看清其发展轨迹。特斯拉的估值依旧高起谈及特斯拉,必然要提及其高得离谱的估值:过去 12 个月,公司每股收益仅 1.67 美元,静态市盈率高达 249 倍;静态自由现金流为 62.2 亿美元,对应 1.38 万亿美元的市值,自由现金流市盈率约 222 倍。但市场几乎从未在意过这一估值水平,因为特斯拉的估值并非基于当前业绩,而是其未来的发展潜力 —— 这一潜力虽难以量化,却真实存在。例如,Precedence Research 的一项研究显示,全球 Robotaxi 市场规模 2024 年为 27.7 亿美元,2025 年预计增至 44.3 亿美元,2034 年或将达到 1889.1 亿美元,2025-2034 年的复合年增长率高达 52.54%。而这还只是 Robotaxi 一个业务的市场潜力,因此,切勿以传统车企的估值逻辑来衡量特斯拉。这也是特斯拉 2026 年豪掷 200 亿美元投资高增长项目的原因,正是这些前沿布局支撑着公司的高估值。一旦特斯拉将发展重点重新放回汽车业务,市场就会将其视作普通车企,届时公司股价或将遭遇暴跌。市场情绪是推动特斯拉上涨的核心因素,相较单一的估值指标,我们更应关注情绪变化 —— 尽管分析师承认,当前市值已充分反映了公司的未来预期。仍处上行趋势,但预警信号已现从技术面来看,特斯拉仍在创造更高的高点和低点,最近的阶段性低点为 11 月 14 日的 382.78 美元,上行趋势在技术层面仍保持完好,分析师并不建议做空该股。但当前已出现明确的预警信号:尽管管理层在财报电话会议中释放了诸多利好,但财报发布后特斯拉股价仍下跌 3.45%。在 Robotaxi 项目取得更明确的进展,且市场开始认可其价值之前,分析师并不建议抄底特斯拉。结论特斯拉目前正处于一个尴尬的境地:短期财务表现疲软,而长期前沿项目虽稳步推进、足以支撑股价,但现阶段仍难以做出确定性判断。如今的特斯拉,估值高企、未来尚存不确定性,且财报发布后的市场表现不尽如人意。同时,分析师并不认为 SpaceX 与特斯拉的合并会落地,这一传闻不足以让分析师将其评级调回买入。此外,分析师去年 3 月提出的期权投资策略已完成兑现,当前特斯拉的风险收益比已出现不利变化。基于以上原因,分析师将特斯拉的评级从买入下调至持有。目前,分析师会等待更多证据证明 Robotaxi 具备无监督规模化运营的能力,同时持续关注合并传闻的后续进展。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLG":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSLY":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"CRSH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}