诺和押注下一发展篇章，礼来在GLP‑1领域持续扩大优势_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

诺和押注下一发展篇章，礼来在GLP‑1领域持续扩大优势

环球市场播报09-25

核心要点　　诺和本周公布一项宏大战略，试图在王牌注射剂维格维（Wegovy）与诺和泰（Ozempic）之外重新拉动增长，但想要赢回投资者、夺回肥胖症药物市场份额，前路艰难。与此同时，礼来持续蚕食诺和诺德的市场地位，包括快速兴起的口服减肥药赛道。就在诺和诺德努力扭转颓势之际，部分分析师认为，礼来手握多项优势，有望稳固其在肥胖药市场龙头的位置。　　每当诺和诺德呼吁投资者放眼未来，礼来总能拿出...

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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-09-25/doc-iniszvzv7702421.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心要点\n　　诺和本周公布一项宏大战略，试图在王牌注射剂维格维（Wegovy）与诺和泰（Ozempic）之外重新拉动增长，但想要赢回投资者、夺回肥胖症药物市场份额，前路艰难。 与此同时，礼来持续蚕食诺和诺德的市场地位，包括快速兴起的口服减肥药赛道。 就在诺和诺德努力扭转颓势之际，部分分析师认为，礼来手握多项优势，有望稳固其在肥胖药市场龙头的位置。\n\n　　每当诺和诺德呼吁投资者放眼未来，礼来总能拿出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-09-25/doc-iniszvzv7702421.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2602419157.SGD","symbol_name":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) 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field.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TRUH":0.6,"NVOH":0.6,"MEDX":0.6,"JDOC":0.6,"PPH":0.6,"LLY":1.95,"AGNG":0.6,"CANC":0.6,"TMED":0.6,"LLII":0.6,"OZEM":0.6,"CURE":0.6,"LLYX":0.6,"NVO":1.97,"IXJ":0.6,"MHIP":0.6,"FTXH":0.6,"NVOX":0.6,"THNR":0.6,"MEDI":0.6,"ELIS":0.6,"WDNA":0.6,"ELIL":0.6,"GDOC":0.6,"PJP":0.6,"IYH":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"VHT":0.6,"RXL":0.6,"NVOC":0.6,"LLYZ":0.6,"IHE":0.6,"HRTS":0.6,"FHLC":0.6,"XLV":0.6},"content_text":"核心要点\n　　诺和本周公布一项宏大战略，试图在王牌注射剂维格维（Wegovy）与诺和泰（Ozempic）之外重新拉动增长，但想要赢回投资者、夺回肥胖症药物市场份额，前路艰难。 与此同时，礼来持续蚕食诺和诺德的市场地位，包括快速兴起的口服减肥药赛道。 就在诺和诺德努力扭转颓势之际，部分分析师认为，礼来手握多项优势，有望稳固其在肥胖药市场龙头的位置。\n\n　　每当诺和诺德呼吁投资者放眼未来，礼来总能拿出新的佐证，让市场看到这家丹麦药企的领先优势正在不断被对手缩小。\n　　诺和诺德本周发布战略，谋求在王牌注射药 Wegovy 与 Ozempic 之外重启增长；这两款核心药物将在 2030 年代初于主要市场迎来专利到期。在周一的资本市场日活动上，公司公布了一系列有望成为重磅炸弹的在研产品管线，药物研发方向跳出肥胖与糖尿病两大核心领域，实现业务多元化。\n　　但华尔街目前并不认可诺和诺德的发展路线图。公司给出的增长目标仅与行业平均水平持平，未能实现超额增长，令投资者大失所望，股价遭到重挫。同时，市场对其缺乏清晰的短期扭亏方案也心存疑虑。\n　　同一时期，礼来持续蚕食竞争对手的市场份额，蓬勃发展的口服减肥药赛道亦不例外。\n　　诺和诺德的口服 Wegovy 片剂抢先上市，比礼来竞品 Foundayo 早数月，公司希望借此守住口服减重赛道的先发优势。诺和诺德首席执行官迈克・杜斯达（Mike Doustdar）周二接受 采访时表示，从早期使用情况来看，不少患者一直在等待注射剂的替代方案。\n　　“如果这种趋势持续保持当前的力度，那么从数据上看，到 2030 年代末，口服药的使用占比将会超过注射剂。”\n　　不过礼来凭借强大商业化能力紧追不舍。\n　　周一，礼来首席执行官戴夫・里克斯（Dave Ricks）在采访中称，公司新款肥胖口服药 Foundayo 在美国市场正在稳步渗透。里克斯在得州休斯顿告诉 ，新增 GLP‑1 口服药患者中，有三分之一选择礼来这款药物，其在口服药市场的份额 “每周都在上涨”。\n　　美国联邦医保自 7 月起将肥胖症药物纳入报销范围，礼来在这个新兴医保市场同样取得先发优势。里克斯表示，医保报销落地后，医保新患者中70% 选择礼来的药物。\n　　他补充道，医保患者格外青睐礼来的减重注射剂泽邦德（Zepbound），这帮助礼来在整体市场占据主导地位。礼来 8 月披露，其二季度在美国 GLP‑1 市场份额约61%，诺和诺德约39%。\n　　在周一投资者大会上，投资者希望诺和诺德能提供更多 Wegovy、Ozempic 之后的增长规划细节；而这家药企押注，重磅产品矩阵中，后继药物或将不止一款。\n　　对诺和诺德而言，挑战不只是在两款王牌药专利保护到期、面临大量仿制药竞争后弥补营收缺口；更要说服投资者：即便对手持续拉开差距，诺和诺德依旧能在这片由自己率先开拓的 GLP‑1 市场重获增长动能。\n　　礼来大概率维持优势地位\n　　尽管经历连续两年多重挫折、艰难自救，分析师认为礼来拥有多项优势，有望守住肥胖药市场榜首。\n　　Leerink Partners 分析师戴维・里辛格（David Risinger）在采访中表示：“礼来目前处于领跑地位。依托强大商业化实力、全球产品推广布局，加上前沿候选药物管线，我们认为它将持续保持领先。”\n　　里辛格预计 Foundayo 在口服 GLP‑1 市场份额将继续提升，原因在于礼来拥有极强商业化能力、更高营销投入。他还认为 Foundayo 最终有望主导全球口服减肥药市场，部分原因在于大规模生产时，其生产成本有望低于 Wegovy 口服片剂。\n　　Foundayo 属于小分子药物，生产工艺和规模化难度低于多肽类药物（例如诺和诺德的 Wegovy 口服片、现有注射型 GLP‑1 药物）。虽然 Foundayo 平均减重效果弱于 Wegovy 口服片，但服用该药无需限制饮食饮水，这一点对部分患者很有吸引力。\n　　诺和诺德高管本周没有直接回应 “Foundayo 是否更容易扩产” 的问题。公司正投入数十亿美元建设生产基地，高管称目标是到 2030 年，将使用 GLP‑1 药物的患者数量提升十倍。管理层多次强调，供应不再是难题，不会重演早年 Ozempic 与 Wegovy 注射剂的缺货危机。\n　　在注射剂赛道，Zepbound 减重效果优于早期剂量版本 Wegovy，这也是礼来能够抢占诺和诺德市场份额的关键。诺和诺德今年推出高剂量版 Wegovy，试图缩小疗效差距，新版减重效果与 Zepbound 大致相当。\n　　但礼来并未止步不前。\n　　里辛格称，礼来拥有下一代肥胖药管线，有望在 Zepbound 和 Foundayo 之外继续扩大领先优势。其中包括retatrutide（三重受体激动剂），可靶向三种肠道激素，临床试验减重效果优于现有减肥药；礼来计划 2027 年一季度提交该药上市申请。\n　　礼来还在开发一款周制剂注射药物，靶向胰岛淀粉样多肽受体，该通路调控食欲与饱腹感，和现有药物靶点不同。里辛格评价，这款药的潜力远超市场当前预期，尤其适合大量无法耐受 GLP‑1 药物、或用药应答不佳的患者群体。\n　　“我们非常看好礼来 Zepbound、Foundayo 之后的后继药物管线。”\n　　虽然投资者高度关注诺和诺德、礼来下一代药物的减重数据，但诺和诺德预判未来市场会走向分化。\n　　诺和诺德首席科学官马丁・霍尔斯特・朗格（Martin Holst Lange）本周对 表示，丰富的未来管线将为医生与患者提供更多选择，提升药物渗透率。公司正在研究新药在耐受性、肌肉保留、肥胖相关合并症、用药便捷性等维度的表现。\n　　“单靠一款药物无法实现全部目标。”\n　　诺和诺德押注下一代管线\n诺和 CEO 迈克・杜斯达（左）、礼来 CEO 戴维・里克斯，2025 年 11 月 6 日白宫椭圆办公室减重药物相关活动\n　　面对礼来的强势领跑，诺和诺德的应对方案是全面押注下一代新药。\n　　诺和诺德目标：2030 年前推出5 款以上有望成为重磅炸弹的新药；到 2035 年，管线药物销售额超 1500 亿丹麦克朗（约合 230 亿美元）。公司计划在肥胖、糖尿病领域至少保有 5 项三期临床项目，另在其他治疗领域布局 5 项三期项目，以此实现管线多元化。\n　　这份宏大计划，恰恰反映了诺和诺德亟待解决的危机：Wegovy 与 Ozempic 的活性成分司美格鲁肽专利保护持续至 2032 年；这两款药物贡献诺和诺德约三分之二营收，2025 年合计销售额达 310 亿美元。\n　　诺和诺德必须说服投资者：当仿制药入局，公司的新药管线能够填补营收缺口。而在接连遭遇管线挫折之后，公司股价已经连续多年承压下跌。\n　　公司寄予厚望的新产品中，包括CagriSema（司美格鲁肽联合 cagrilintide，靶向胰岛淀粉样多肽），预计明年初上市；后续还会推出单方 cagrilintide、2028 年推出高剂量 CagriSema 以及其他肥胖新药。华尔街对 CagriSema 热情有限，此前该药物临床试验减重效果不及预期。\n　　但诺和诺德坚持认为 CagriSema 疗效突出、差异化足够，具备商业化潜力。朗格告诉 ，个体化给药方案或是这款重磅新药的破局方向，并且本周公布了最新后期临床数据：一项头对头试验显示，在 2 型糖尿病患者中，CagriSema 减重效果优于替尔泊肽（礼来 Zepbound、Mounjaro 的活性成分）。\n　　不过该结果存在局限性：试验采用的两组药物剂量均偏低；而在采用更高剂量的头对头研究中，替尔泊肽减重效果优于 CagriSema。\n　　与此同时，诺和诺德依旧看好口服减肥药市场增长。\n　　杜斯达接受 采访称，未来投资者不应只盯着市场份额，市场整体规模同样重要，肥胖药物市场还有巨大增长空间。\n　　诺和诺德计划扩产，到 2030 年产能可支撑 1500 万口服减重药使用者。公司称口服药最终有望拿下全球减肥药市场半数份额。其 Wegovy 口服片在美国处方量已达 700 万张，90% 销售额来自自费渠道。\n　　但问题在于，投资者想要的不只是前景良好的管线。\n　　周一分析师向诺和诺德高管追问定价假设：一旦 Wegovy、Ozempic 专利到期，后续管线新药能否继续维持高价。\n　　诺和诺德 2026–2030 年收入指引的增速仅和同行药企持平，难以重现当年 Wegovy、Ozempic 爆发期的超高增长。\n　　诺和诺德因此陷入艰难的平衡博弈：一方面要对抗礼来、守住现有肥胖药基本盘；另一方面，还要持续投入资金研发接替现有产品的新一代药物。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}