苹果冲击五周连涨：Evercore上调目标价至380美元，称iPhone换机周期好于预期_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

苹果冲击五周连涨：Evercore上调目标价至380美元，称iPhone换机周期好于预期

智通财经09-18

9月18日，苹果有望录得连续第五周上涨，华尔街最新评论指向其最新 iPhone 阵容的需求可能强于预期。Evercore ISI 将苹果目标价从 365 美元上调至 380 美元，同时维持“跑赢大盘”评级。美银则重申对苹果的“买入”评级与 370 美元目标价。Evercore：调查指向强劲换机周期，定价还有上行空间这次上调部分依据是对近 4,000 名消费者的年度调查，Evercore 称调查指向...

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Max 的比例由去年的 29% 升至 32%;消费者换机的驱动因素也从去年的 AI 功能转向相机、电池与屏幕等硬件升级——Evercore 认为，这一差异有助于本轮周期的持续性，而去年由 Apple Intelligence 拉动的兴趣最终未能兑现。调查同时显示，在 Pro 机型涨价 100 美元、消费者更多选择高存储配置的情况下，平均售价正被进一步推高。苹果 9 月 9 日的发布会把 Pro 机型价格各上调了 100 美元：iPhone 18 Pro 起售价 1,199 美元、iPhone 18 Pro Max 起售价 1,299 美元(均为 256GB 起步，存储最高可选 2TB)。苹果同时发布首款折叠屏手机 iPhone Duo，起售价 1,999 美元，10 月 16 日开启预售;iPhone 18 Pro 与 Pro Max 于 9 月 12 日开启预售、9 月 18 日正式开售。涨价的另一面是成本。据 TrendForce 测算，256GB 版 iPhone 18 Pro 的存储成本同比上涨近 400%，存储占整机物料成本的比重从约 10% 升至 34%;国内媒体此前报道，苹果已接受三星 2027 年一季度的存储报价、较今年三季度上涨 30% 至 40%。这也是卖方对毛利率判断出现分歧的由来——提价的相当一部分被零部件成本吃掉。产品节奏方面，本轮秋季发布只覆盖 Pro 机型与折叠屏 Duo，标准版 iPhone 18、iPhone 18e 与第二代 iPhone Air 均推迟至 2027 年春季发布;Duo 要到 10 月 16 日才开启预售，比 Pro 机型晚约一个月。美银：运营商促销更丰厚，大致抵消涨价美银同样对本轮 iPhone 周期持建设性看法，理由是来自美国无线运营商的折抵激励提高。美银分析师瓦姆西·莫汉(Wamsi Mohan)报告，iPhone 18 Pro Max 的最高折抵额度已从 iPhone 17 Pro Max 的 1,100 美元提升至 1,200 美元，涨幅大致与苹果对最新 Pro 机型 100 美元的涨价相当。莫汉重申对苹果的“买入”评级与 370 美元目标价，并表示更丰厚的运营商促销应有助于在设备价格更高的情况下支撑需求。按运营商公布的方案，T-Mobile、AT&T 与 Verizon 的最高折抵或补贴额度均已达到 1,200 美元;其中 Verizon 与 AT&T 通常要求折抵机型为 iPhone 14 或更新，T-Mobile 的门槛为 iPhone 15 Pro 或更新——促销明显偏向持有较新机型的用户。莫汉同时提示，折抵并不能消除前期支出：消费者仍需支付激活费，并按全额零售价缴纳销售税，iPhone 18 Pro 的初期现金支出约 291 至 296 美元，Pro Max 约 400 至 405 美元;运营商的分期方案多为 36 个月。华尔街整体解读股价方面，苹果盘前变化不大;过去一天里，Stocktwits 上该股的散户情绪处于“看跌”区间。尽管市场对涨价和新机需求存有疑虑，苹果股价在发布期整体保持韧性。覆盖苹果的 44 位分析师中，25 位给出“强力买入”或“买入”评级，13 位建议“持有”，仅 6 位建议“卖出”。行情数据显示，苹果 9 月 17 日收于 337.00 美元、单日涨 1.38%，年内累计上涨约 23.7%，总市值约 4.9 万亿美元;机构卖方目标均价约为 337 美元。卖方目标价分布同样分散：瑞银在折叠屏 Duo 发布后维持“中性”评级与 296 美元目标价，Melius Research 则维持“买入”与 370 美元目标价，均与 Evercore 的 380 美元存在明显落差。交货期读数分歧：三家机构给出两套结论围绕“需求到底强不强”，追踪预售交货期的机构给出了不同结论。Evercore ISI 在 9 月 14 日的报告中称，iPhone 18 Pro Max 平均交货期约 25 天(去年同期 19 天)、Pro 为 16 天(去年同期 12 天)，并把美国、英国、德国市场交货期拉长视为积极的需求信号。美银同期报告的方向相反：截至 9 月 14 日，iPhone 18 Pro 全球平均发货时间为 14 天(去年同期 18 天)、Pro Max 为 18 天(去年同期 25 天)，该行认为本轮比较“不如以往周期可比”，因为苹果本轮只发布了 Pro 机型、预售由周五改到周六、定价更高。杰富瑞跟踪六个市场后称，Pro Max 交货期同比缩短 5 至 11 天，并据此维持“跑输大盘”评级与 263.66 美元目标价。摩根大通 9 月 17 日的追踪报告则显示，截至 9 月 16 日，iPhone 18 Pro 与 Pro Max 的全球平均交货期分别为 19 天和 26 天，与去年同期的 20 天和 26 天基本持平，但首周交货期的扩张幅度(12 天、7 天)明显超过去年同期(5 天、2 天);该行认为首周交货期偏短反映的是备货向高端机型集中，而非需求疲软。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}