美债回购引爆“美元贬值交易”卷土重来，黄金剑指4700美元创三个月新高_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美债回购引爆“美元贬值交易”卷土重来，黄金剑指4700美元创三个月新高

智通财经08-25

8月25日，黄金正在经历一场由华盛顿亲手点燃的强劲反弹。周二亚洲早盘，现货黄金交投于4675美元/盎司附近，延续涨势。周一盘中，金价一度触及4680.70美元，创下5月14日以来的逾三个月新高。自8月19日美国财政部宣布扩大长期国债回购规模以来，黄金已连续四个交易日上涨，累计涨幅超7%。这场反弹的背后，是财政部长斯科特·贝森特一记“火箭筒式”的债市干预——以及市场对美元信用正在被侵蚀的深层焦虑。...

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White指出，若动用TGA为回购提供资金，该操作在性质上已不再是严格意义上的“扭曲操作”，而更接近一种净流动性注入。黄金因此成为比美债更为直接的“类QE交易”标的。然而，回购的效果仅维持了短短一天，长债收益率随后基本回吐跌幅。30年期美债收益率在短暂回落后仍维持在5%上方。市场对美国长期财政前景的担忧并未因此消失——在通胀仍高于目标、财政赤字持续扩张的背景下，交易员对美国财政可持续性的关注正在重新升温。美元沦为“祭品”：贬值交易卷土重来贝森特干预债市的代价，正在由美元支付。美元指数此前一度跌至三个月低点，周一虽小幅反弹至98.99，但整体仍处于弱势格局。加拿大丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne直言：“总得付出一些代价，要么表现为美债收益率上升，要么就是美元需要做出让步。”试图压低美国国债收益率的举措正重新点燃所谓的“货币贬值”主题——这一主题曾在2025年推动黄金实现65%的暴涨。Global X ETFs分析师Justin Lin表示：“我看到宏观资金基于这种货币贬值叙事，有很大空间大幅转向贵金属。”对黄金而言，美元走弱意味着以美元计价的黄金对非美元投资者而言变得相对便宜，直接降低了购买成本，刺激了买盘涌入。更关键的是，市场对美国财政可持续性的担忧正在从根本上动摇美元的信用基础。伊朗制裁“火上浇油”：贵金属避险需求全面升温在财政干预之外，地缘政治风险正在为黄金提供额外推力。美国财政部长贝森特宣布对伊朗实施“前所未有”的经济制裁措施，针对近60个与伊朗有关联的实体，涵盖数字资产、科技、黄金、航空和航运等领域。这一被称为“Outcast”的经济行动旨在切断伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的每一个潜在收入来源。中东局势的最新发展显著提升了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。截至发稿，黄金价格上涨0.5%。白银价格上涨0.9%，至每盎司69.53美元。铂金和钯金价格也出现上涨。衡量美元汇率的彭博美元现货指数小幅下跌。技术面全面转多：200日均线突破与ETF资金洪流黄金的技术面已全面转向看涨。上周，金价一举突破200日移动均线(约4510-4520美元)的关键阻力。法兴银行指出，黄金后续上行阻力依次位于4730美元、4770美元，以及4月高点4890美元。资金面的信号同样强劲。彭博追踪的黄金ETF上周增持超过28吨，创下1月以来最大单周增幅。全球黄金ETF录得10个月来最大单周资金流入(46.7吨，约64亿美元)，北美和欧洲上市基金领衔。更值得关注的是，桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio上周在领英发帖表示，投资者应减少债券持仓，并将高达15%的资金配置于黄金，以对冲美国债务危机的风险。前方考验：沃什杰克逊霍尔首秀定调黄金的上涨之路并非坦途。美联储主席凯文·沃什将于8月28日在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表就任后的首次主旨演讲。市场正密切关注其如何解释通胀、就业、利率路径及政策反应机制。若沃什释放偏鸽信号，市场加息预期降温，贵金属有望获得新的驱动;若其强调通胀风险、释放偏鹰信号，美元及美债收益率或走强，贵金属短线或承压。在此之前，周三将公布的PCE物价指数也将为市场提供关键的短期指引。ING商品策略师Ewa 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