美股风险情绪指标升温，“动物精神”卷土重来！_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美股风险情绪指标升温，“动物精神”卷土重来！

智通财经04-23

4月23日，一场由美股半导体和小盘股引领的风险偏好反弹，正在演变为席卷整个美股市场的“动物精神”狂潮。比特币重新向8万美元大关发起冲击，加密货币概念股的期权交易量呈现爆炸式增长，而更值得关注的是，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)与飙升的原油价格之间出现了罕见背离——市场正将地缘政治风险抛诸脑后。期权市场沸腾：从Strategy到Coinbase的押注狂潮“比特币多头旗手”Michael ...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1432485.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月23日，一场由美股半导体和小盘股引领的风险偏好反弹，正在演变为席卷整个美股市场的“动物精神”狂潮。比特币重新向8万美元大关发起冲击，加密货币概念股的期权交易量呈现爆炸式增长，而更值得关注的是，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)与飙升的原油价格之间出现了罕见背离——市场正将地缘政治风险抛诸脑后。期权市场沸腾：从Strategy到Coinbase的押注狂潮“比特币多头旗手”Michael ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1432485.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4099","symbol_name":"汽车制造商","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1432485.html","article_id":"2629898006","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629898006","pubTimestamp":1776918302,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，一场由美股半导体和小盘股引领的风险偏好反弹，正在演变为席卷整个美股市场的“动物精神”狂潮。事实上，最近两个财报季特斯拉股价的实际波动幅度均不足3%。VIX与油价的情绪背离信号周三的市场呈现出一种罕见的情绪割裂：布伦特原油因伊朗扣押船只事件飙升逾4%，而衡量美股恐慌情绪的VIX指数却不升反降。有策略师指出，这种背离表明市场正在对风险进行分层定价。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER 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Saylor旗下的Strategy(MSTR.US)成为周三期权市场的绝对焦点。该股股价当日大涨9%至179美元，期权链上的看涨期权买盘急剧加速，早盘交易中看涨期权与看跌期权的成交量之比达到惊人的5:1。最受追捧的合约是4月24日到期、行权价为180美元的看涨期权。分析人士指出，这类接近平值且仅剩两个交易日的合约，意味着持有者赋予其约50%的到期盈利概率。对于Strategy这类以高波动性著称的股票而言，如此温和的押注方式折射出的并非谨慎，而是交易员对该股短线动能的高度确信。加密券商Coinbase(COIN.US)周三5%的涨幅似乎只是暖场。一笔引发广泛关注的期权交易显示，有投资者斥资约12万美元买入1000份行权价为230美元、本周五到期的看涨期权合约。简单测算可知，Coinbase股价需在接下来三个交易日内从当前水平再上涨至少10%，这笔末日看涨期权才能进入实值区间。如此短期限、高行权价的激进押注，是市场风险偏好处于极端亢奋状态的经典微观信号。与相关市场弥漫的投机狂热形成鲜明对比的是，特斯拉(TSLA.US)正面临财报后市场的冷静审视。尽管纳斯达克100指数屡创新高，特斯拉股价今年以来仍累计下跌约10%。该公司公布业绩后，周三夜盘下跌0.3%。期权市场目前为特斯拉财报日定价了约5.5%的预期波动幅度。然而，历史数据提供了一幅更为克制的图景：过去四个财报季中，有三个季度的实际股价波动低于市场预期。事实上，最近两个财报季特斯拉股价的实际波动幅度均不足3%。这种预期与现实之间的持续落差，使得部分交易员倾向于在财报前采取卖出波动率的策略，而非追随市场情绪进行方向性押注。VIX与油价的情绪背离信号周三的市场呈现出一种罕见的情绪割裂：布伦特原油因伊朗扣押船只事件飙升逾4%，而衡量美股恐慌情绪的VIX指数却不升反降。通常情况下，地缘政治冲击引发的油价暴涨会同步推高VIX，但当前交易员们似乎已不再将伊朗战争视为足以撼动美股牛市根基的主要威胁。有策略师指出，这种背离表明市场正在对风险进行分层定价。能源市场的参与者聚焦于霍尔木兹海峡的实际供应中断风险，而股票市场的参与者则更倾向于将中东冲突视为局部性、可控的事件。更值得警惕的信号在于，当市场开始系统性忽视尾部风险时，往往意味着情绪已进入过度乐观的区间。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}