AH溢价“倒挂”四问硬科技凭什么更贵_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

AH溢价“倒挂”四问硬科技凭什么更贵

21世纪经济报道07:44

当H股比A股还贵，一场关于定价权的博弈已经开始。　　长期以来，A股对H股维持30%至40%的整体溢价，几乎是两地市场心照不宣的“定价铁律”。但自2025年以来，这条铁律正在被打破。　　2026年4月22日，恒生沪深港通AH股溢价指数已从2024年2月的161.36点高位降至118点，为近8年低点。近期A股相对港股的平均溢价率也从40%收缩至20%左右。　　更值得关注的是：一批中国硬科技龙头竟出现了...

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Expensive","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":1.97,"600030":1.84,"601869":1.86,"603986":1.85,"688008":1.85,"06030":1.84,"CIIHY":1.84,"06809":1.85,"03750":1.97,"06869":1.86,"EVS.SI":0.6,"03986":1.85},"content_text":"当H股比A股还贵，一场关于定价权的博弈已经开始。　　长期以来，A股对H股维持30%至40%的整体溢价，几乎是两地市场心照不宣的“定价铁律”。但自2025年以来，这条铁律正在被打破。　　2026年4月22日，恒生沪深港通AH股溢价指数已从2024年2月的161.36点高位降至118点，为近8年低点。近期A股相对港股的平均溢价率也从40%收缩至20%左右。　　更值得关注的是：一批中国硬科技龙头竟出现了H股比A股更贵的“倒挂”奇观——宁德时代、兆易创新、澜起科技、药明康德、恒瑞医药等H股大幅溢价。　　外资在为什么买单？　　4月21日，宁德时代H股盘中触及745港元历史新高，收于736港元/股；其A股收盘440.69元，总市值突破2万亿元，成为A股首家迈过这道门槛的民营科技龙头。收盘时H股相对A股溢价率达30.57%。　　当天，圈子里广泛流传一个段子：在股东大会上，有人问宁德时代老板曾毓群“怎么看待H股比A股贵50%？”　　曾老板回答：“我们专门成立了团队去研究，甚至问了官方，得出两个结论：一是港股资金多经验久，A股没见过巨无霸，就像小庙没见过大猪头；二是某市场投资群体的投资偏好，不太愿意长期持股。”　　段子归段子。宁德时代2018年登陆A股时市值不足千亿元，如今已超2万亿元；2025年5月港股上市首日涨幅超16%，H股溢价超7%，此后持续跑赢，目前溢价仍达30%。　　真正让H股贵过A股的，远不止“小庙”和“耐心”那么简单。　　关键因素之一是流通盘小。宁德时代H股流通股本仅1.56亿股，A股高达42.57亿股——H股盘子只有A股的3.7%。更小的流通盘叠加更活跃的换手率，使资金更容易拉升股价。　　“港股整体流通盘偏小，全球长线资金集中配置优质硬资产，很容易形成扎堆买入，供需失衡放大溢价。”畅力资产董事长宝晓辉指出。　　但幕后最大推手是外资。兴业证券在最新报告中明确指出：外资是决定AH溢价率高低的核心资金力量。自宁德时代港股上市以来，其AH溢价率随国际中介机构持股占比提升而不断走低。外资持股占比与AH溢价率呈明显负相关——外资越青睐，H股相对A股就越贵。　　海外中长期资本看重的，不是短周期波动，而是宁德时代作为全球电池龙头的不可替代性、长期成长性及稀缺性。即便在2022-2024年A股股价下行周期中，北上资金依然持续增持。　　博时基金基金经理赵宪成也表示：“现在外资对中国硬科技资产重新定价。国际资本对中国具备全球竞争力、高ROE及治理透明度高的龙头企业给予溢价与战略配置地位。部分硬科技龙头因其在全球AI算力、半导体国产替代、新能源等成长赛道的核心地位，获得了国际投资者的稀缺性溢价。”　　过去，A股定价权握在国内公募和散户手中，估值锚定的是国产替代、政策红利与国内增速；登陆H股后，定价权移交至全球主权基金、养老金和MSCI被动资金手中，估值坐标也随之切换为全球市占率、技术壁垒与长期确定性。　　不过，永赢基金基金经理储可凡也补充了另一股力量：内资对港股定价权在提升。南向资金港股持仓占比从2020年约4.5%提升至2025年约12.7%，交易量占比从不足10%提升至20%以上，单日一度突破50%。　　“在南向资金与外资的共同推动下，AH溢价指数下降至历史低位。”储可凡说。　　赵宪成指出，政策支持也功不可没。2024年4月证监会推出五项对港合作措施，支持内地龙头企业赴港上市；同年10月，港交所与香港证监会为合规A股公司设立快速通道；2025年5月推出“科企专线”，为科技企业提供上市辅导，降低了合规门槛，建立了与国际估值体系的对接机制。“这些政策为A股龙头公司赴港上市和AH估值收敛提供了制度基础。”　　哪些公司还在打折？　　本轮H股溢价并非普涨。　　截至4月21日，全市场仅8只A+H股实现H股溢价，其中硬科技占据半壁江山：宁德时代溢价30.57%，兆易创新溢价20.71%，澜起科技溢价12.71%，药明康德、恒瑞医药均超4%。　　而绝大多数公司仍维持A股溢价格局——近期AH溢价指数在120点上下浮动，意味着整体上A股仍比H股贵约20%左右。　　谁在享受溢价？赵宪成指出，H股溢价高度集中在半导体、AI算力、新能源等具备全球定价权的硬科技赛道，传统制造业则维持A股溢价。这些龙头普遍具备全球竞争力、高技术壁垒、稳定现金流和高ROE，且南向资金持股占比不高——印证了主导力量是外资而非内资。　　为何外资愿意为溢价买单？ 薛建明拆解了四重驱动力：一是基本面过硬（宁德时代2025年归母净利同比+42%，2026年Q1营收+扣非净利同比+52%，澜起科技、兆易创新2025年归母净利分别同比+58%、+49%）；二是赛道稀缺（港股硬科技制造、高端芯片、新能源储能等标的供给严重不足）；三是筹码极度稀缺（宁德时代、兆易创新H股股本占各自总股本均不足5%）；四是全球定价权（港股由国际机构主导，国际长线资金愿为“不可替代的全球龙头”支付确定性溢价）。　　“优质成长股可能持续享受H股溢价，传统行业A股溢价将逐步收窄但不会消失。”薛建明说。　　这意味着什么？全球资本对中国资产的定价逻辑，正在从“一刀切折价”转向“分层定价”。　　长城基金国际业务部副总经理曲少杰认为，这种极致结构性分化有望中长期延续：“本土资产维持A股溢价，全球稀缺硬科技龙头享受H股溢价——这不是短期扰动，而是中国硬科技进入全球估值锚定的拐点。”　　宝晓辉直言，过去全球资本对中国资产“一刀切”折价的刻板印象正在被打破，“对于宁德时代这类全球硬科技龙头，外资愿意接受更高估值，说明一些外资正在用新的估值模式重新定价中国硬科技。”　　薛建明总结：本轮H股溢价是“硬科技供给不足+国际长线资金刚性配置需求”共振的结果，短期是稀缺性溢价，中期是全球定价逻辑迁移，长期趋于收敛但结构分化永存。　　赵宪成表示，中国硬科技正进入全球估值锚定的新阶段，本质是国际资本对中国核心资产的稀缺性与安全性溢价重估。“H股不再是A股的廉价替代品，而是中国硬科技资产在全球范围内的价值发现平台。”赵宪成说。　　短期炒作还是长期重估？　　不过，并非所有人都看好这场H股溢价狂欢。　　谨慎派认为存在短期泡沫。一位私募机构CEO认为，流通盘过小叠加配售诉求下的股价冲高，只是短期错误定价，“拉长周期机构定价将大幅下滑”。　　薛建明也提醒：“宁德时代30%的溢价里，有相当一部分来自筹码极度稀缺的放大效应。一旦供给增加——更多股票赴港上市，这个溢价会压缩。真正的‘全球估值锚定’，是国际机构持续不离场，且溢价稳定在一个合理区间。”　　重估派则认为这是长期趋势的开端。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙认为，AH溢价指数持续走低是港股科技龙头大涨带动，“国际资本对中国科技龙头股积极看好，给予了更高的定价”。他甚至将视野拉至地缘层面：“中东战争之后，更多投资者看到中国的安全与稳定，给中国资产带来更高的价值与溢价。”　　曲少杰指出，全球资本对中国资产的定价逻辑，已经从过去的区域市场风险折价，彻底转向分层定价：即本土资产维持 A 股溢价；全球稀缺硬科技龙头享受 H 股全球稀缺性溢价。这种极致结构性分化有望中长期延续。　　“达到世界级优秀的公司，既是全球市占龙头，同时技术不可替代、海外收入占比高，这类标的港股供给极度稀缺，几乎无同赛道可比标的，对外资而言，这类优质的世界级硬科技整体供给缺口巨大，外资愿意按照长逻辑给予国际优秀公司定价。”曲少杰说。　　储可凡认为，全球资本对中国资产的定价逻辑正在从“整体折价”转向“稀缺性溢价”，未来或仍将持续，“核心原因在于优质核心资产的稀缺性以及外资配置中国需求的持续性。”　　赵宪成也认同H股溢价有望逐渐走向常态化和普遍化。　　兴业证券判断，随着更多优质科技成长及制造业公司赴港二次上市，叠加海外资金加速回流中国，港股较A股溢价的现象可能逐渐走向常态化和普遍化。　　杨德龙呼应了这一判断：“H股科技股的溢价有可能会成为常态，因为这反映出中国在第四次科技革命——AI革命中所具备的独到优势，与美国呈现出齐头并进、你追我赶的格局。”　　业内人士的共识是，分化仍将长期存在。宝晓辉认为，外资对中国资产的认可目前还只停留在硬科技企业范畴，“绝大多数赴港上市的硬科技公司，还需要长时间用业绩去证明自己。”　　薛建明则给出更精细的时间表：短期（1-2年）头部龙头溢价维持甚至扩大；长期两地估值趋于收敛，但结构性分化永存。　　H股溢价标的怎么投？　　当港股不再仅仅是A股的“折扣店”，而成为中国核心资产在全球范围内的定价风向标，投资者该如何应对？　　第一，优选H股溢价标的。曲少杰认为，H股溢价本身就是一种“认证”——“代表在全球资本市场定价体系下，该公司获得了资金的认可，这是对世界优秀公司的一种认证。”　　第二，关注行业互补机会。储可凡建议，除了跟踪港股折价收敛趋势，还可利用港股与A股的结构性差异：港股汇聚了中国60%-70%的软件与应用类科技资产（如互联网、AI应用等），与A股硬件为主的结构形成互补，在AI应用浪潮下更具承接能力。　　第三，聚焦硬科技龙头。 赵宪成提出两维度策略：行业上，聚焦半导体、新能源、AI算力、创新药等已建立全球竞争优势的主赛道；公司上，优先选择具备高技术壁垒、稳定全球市场份额、优秀现金流及高ROE的龙头企业。　　第四，双向套利策略。宝晓辉给出了具体打法：“如果一家硬科技企业能在H股长期保持溢价，说明外资高度认可。我们一方面可以直接配置这类优质H股标的；另一方面反向布局对应的A股。A股流动性更好，市场容易修复估值预期，就能吃到AH股之间的溢价价差。”　　第五，长线耐心持有。一位私募CEO从更长周期提醒：目前港股深度折价，A股、美股估值30-40倍的龙头，在港股只有5-10倍估值，“未来在特定条件下会有巨大涨幅空间，但需要长期耐心。”（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}