高盛：美股有望迎来巨额资金涌入，450亿美元快钱买盘蓄势待发_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

高盛：美股有望迎来巨额资金涌入，450亿美元快钱买盘蓄势待发

智通财经04-11

4月11日，对于那些正在寻找下一个推动美股市场上涨的催化剂的股票多头来说，高盛的交易员们有一个好信息：密切关注算法驱动型基金的创纪录买入。在近期伊朗战争引发的抛售潮中，所谓系统性投资者大幅减持至多年低点后，他们准备将创纪录的资金投入美国股市。据高盛交易部门的数据显示，商品交易顾问(CTA，通常被称为“快钱投资者”，他们往往关注价格趋势而非公司业绩)在过去一个月抛售了约480亿美元的标普500指数...

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U.S. stocks are expected to usher in a huge influx of money, and $45 billion quick money buying is ready to go","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d02262d2774869d428aa807c0da2e08f","symbols_score_info":{".SPX":2,"NDX":2,".IXIC":2,".DJI":2},"content_text":"4月11日，对于那些正在寻找下一个推动美股市场上涨的催化剂的股票多头来说，高盛的交易员们有一个好信息：密切关注算法驱动型基金的创纪录买入。在近期伊朗战争引发的抛售潮中，所谓系统性投资者大幅减持至多年低点后，他们准备将创纪录的资金投入美国股市。据高盛交易部门的数据显示，商品交易顾问(CTA，通常被称为“快钱投资者”，他们往往关注价格趋势而非公司业绩)在过去一个月抛售了约480亿美元的标普500指数期货。这种趋势即将逆转。高盛交易员的模型显示，无论市场走向如何，CTA都将在未来一周和一个月内成为美国股票的净买家。高盛策略师Paul Leyzerovich写道，即使在市场横盘整理的情况下，未来一周的需求也可能达到约450亿美元，这将是有史以来规模最大的资金流入之一。动能信号也在发生变化。在市场近期反弹之后，高盛对短期、中期和长期需求的阈值均已转为正值，这进一步强化了重新买入的理由。鉴于资金流动的速度和规模，投资者正密切关注这些资金流动。包括CTA和波动率目标基金在内的系统性策略，往往会根据趋势和波动率信号快速调整仓位，从而放大市场波动。当股票价格持续上涨且实际波动率下降时，就会触发买入信号。受地缘政治紧张局势加剧的影响，短期资金在过去一个月抛售了约2400亿美元的全球股票。巴克莱银行的数据显示，波动率控制型基金已将股票敞口削减至约52%，远低于年初的95%;而CTA基金的持仓也降至5月以来的最低水平。这些资金外流在近期的市场波动中扮演了举足轻重的角色，流动性恶化加剧了强制抛售的影响。“全球股票、利率和大宗商品价格的剧烈波动扰乱了趋势信号，加剧了投资者的清算和算法交易的抛售，”多伦多道明银行高级大宗商品策略师Dan Ghali表示。目前，市场环境正在好转。受美伊谈判进展、能源价格担忧缓解的提振，美国股市有望迎来去年11月以来最强劲的一周涨幅。技术指标也开始转为支撑。标普500指数已突破50日移动均线，市场广度增强，波动率指标回落，芝加哥期权交易所VIX指数跌至20附近。Citadel Securities 的Scott Rubner表示，跨资产波动性正常化是关键，他指出，波动性持续下降通常是系统性基金增加风险的先决条件。Rubner写道：“相对于不断改善的实际情况，系统性策略仍然没有得到充分发挥，这为市场企稳后逐步增加购买流量创造了潜力。”这些基金的买入行为反过来又会促使全权委托投资基金管理(Discretionary investors)追涨杀跌。巴克莱银行全球股票战术策略主管Alex Altmann在一份报告中写道：“如果用解放日或新冠疫情来类比，自主投资者可能会发现自己被迫在比今天更高的股票水平上重新承担风险，仅仅是因为系统性投资者‘抢先一步’。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}