员工净增5000人，腾讯为何招兵买马？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

员工净增5000人，腾讯为何招兵买马？

财经杂志03-19 19:35

机构认为，腾讯有意转向以AI新产品为主导的投资阶段，可能导致利润增长慢于收入增长。不过，随着AI领域等关键产品落地并产生收益，公司估值有望修复文｜《财经》特约撰稿人康国亮编辑｜杨秀红3月18日晚，腾讯公布2025年及四季度业绩。财报显示，腾讯2025年全年实现营收7517.66亿元，同比增长14%；实现归属于母公司股东净利润2248.42亿元，同比增长16%；扣除股权激励、投资损益等影响，非国际...

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href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NDU5NTM4MQ==&mid=2653720407&idx=2&sn=5bdfe8f58c6104b9a6ca9303c67fbb70&chksm=bcae2dd09b7565bb449178967866ceed1f1866de53f769b6b4fa9a17da13bc996a179fe9c6f9&scene=0#rd><strong>财经杂志</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>机构认为，腾讯有意转向以AI新产品为主导的投资阶段，可能导致利润增长慢于收入增长。不过，随着AI领域等关键产品落地并产生收益，公司估值有望修复文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 康国亮编辑｜杨秀红3月18日晚，腾讯公布2025年及四季度业绩。财报显示，腾讯2025年全年实现营收7517.66亿元，同比增长14%；实现归属于母公司股东净利润2248.42亿元，同比增长16%；扣除股权激励、投资损益等影响，非国际...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NDU5NTM4MQ==&mid=2653720407&idx=2&sn=5bdfe8f58c6104b9a6ca9303c67fbb70&chksm=bcae2dd09b7565bb449178967866ceed1f1866de53f769b6b4fa9a17da13bc996a179fe9c6f9&scene=0#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0531970944.HKD","symbol_name":"HSBC GIF BRIC EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) 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recruit?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":1.98,"00700":1.98,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"TCHmain":0.6},"content_text":"机构认为，腾讯有意转向以AI新产品为主导的投资阶段，可能导致利润增长慢于收入增长。不过，随着AI领域等关键产品落地并产生收益，公司估值有望修复文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 康国亮编辑｜杨秀红3月18日晚，腾讯公布2025年及四季度业绩。财报显示，腾讯2025年全年实现营收7517.66亿元，同比增长14%；实现归属于母公司股东净利润2248.42亿元，同比增长16%；扣除股权激励、投资损益等影响，非国际财务报告准则（Non-IFRS）下归母净利润同比增长17%至2596.26亿元。全年毛利率较2024年提升3个百分点至56%，创出历史新高。其中，2025年四季度腾讯实现营收1943.71亿元，同比增长13%；非国际财务报告准则本公司权益持有人应占盈利为646.94亿元，同比增长17%。营收及业绩增长普遍超出预期，腾讯将盈利改善归因于AI（人工智能）技术对广告精准定向能力的持续提升、新游戏表现以及腾讯云实现规模化盈利等。与此同时，腾讯计划在2026年减少股票回购规模，并将资金重点投入AI方面的投资，对于AI及模型的投入至少翻倍，这引发了市场对于腾讯资本开支大幅增加对盈利能力影响的担忧。财报公布后的第一个交易日，3月19日，腾讯股价大幅低开4.09%。截至收盘，股价下跌6.81%至513港元/股，总市值为4.67万亿港元，跌破5万亿港元，相较前一个交易日减少约3428亿港元。“AI发展已经进入第四年，市场对于AI的关注重心已经从最初的乐观憧憬，转变为对于AI投入能否换来相应回报的理性思考。此前，美股谷歌、亚马逊等财报公布后，虽然业绩不错，但大幅增加资本开支也引发了股价的震动，表明市场对科技巨头的‘资本开支惩罚’（市场从期待‘未来增长’转向焦虑‘当下代价’，导致股价短期下跌）。此次，腾讯准备对AI的投入翻倍，考虑到此前腾讯一直在花钱上面相对谨慎的做法，市场未免不会引发类似的担忧。”一位私募投资经理对《财经》分析道。高盛在报告中指出，腾讯旗下人工智能发展为游戏和广告业务带来稳健的增长前景。不过，公司明显转向以AI新产品为主导的投资阶段，并预告回购规模将按年有所收窄。因此将腾讯今年经调整净利润按年增长预测由10%降至7%。高盛认为，虽然短期内腾讯的利润增长放缓，但相信随着公司的AI发展，及未来3个至6个月即将推出微信AI助理，和基于WeChat/WeCom的Claw-agent（龙虾智能体）等关键产品推进，公司估值有望修复。高盛维持对腾讯的“买入”评级，但将目标价由752港元/股下调至700港元/股。游戏与广告引领增长从腾讯传统的三大业务板块来看，包含游戏业务在内的增值服务为腾讯最大的收入来源。增值服务全年实现收入3692.81亿元，同比增长16%。其中，游戏出海成为腾讯游戏收入增长的重要驱动力。财报显示，2025年腾讯国际市场游戏收入同比增长33%至774亿元，首次突破100亿美元大关。驱动力主要来自《PUBG Mobile》（海外吃鸡）、Supercell（腾讯控股的芬兰手游开发商）旗下多款游戏的强劲表现，以及《鸣潮》等自研出海游戏新品的新增贡献。同时，本土市场游戏收入同比增长18%至1642亿元，主要得益于2024年9月26日上线的战术射击类新游戏《三角洲行动》的贡献，以及《王者荣耀》《和平精英》《无畏契约》等长青游戏继续表现稳健。此外，增值服务中，社交网络收入为1277亿元，同比增长5%，反映视频号直播服务、音乐付费会员及手机游戏虚拟道具销售的增长。公司第二大业务板块金融科技及企业服务全年收入同比增长8%至2294.35亿元。其中，金融科技服务收入个位数增长；企业服务收入增速提升至接近20%，主要受益于包括AI相关服务需求在内的国内外云服务需求扩张，以及微信小店GMV（商品交易总额）增长带动的商家技术服务费收入。腾讯方面表示，腾讯云在2025年实现规模化盈利，成为这一板块毛利率从47%升至51%的重要原因。此前，腾讯云于3月11日宣布大模型服务涨价。腾讯云称，为持续提供稳定优质的服务，腾讯云智能体开发平台对部分模型的计费策略进行了调整。以Tencent HY2.0 Instruct模型为例，其输入价格由原先的0.0008元/千Tokens大幅上调至0.004505元/千Tokens，涨幅达463.13%。3月18日晚，腾讯高管在业绩会中表示，人工智能需求激增不仅带动DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）及高带宽内存(HBM)需求回升，还令CPU（中央处理器）、固态硬盘、机械硬盘等需求也全面回升。目前订单已需提前几个月、几个季度甚至数年预定。供应商优先保障规模最大、合作最稳定的客户，比如腾讯云。规模较小的云厂商如今已难以确保获得稳定的供应链支持。在此背景下行业或别无选择，只能将成本上涨转嫁至售价。过去24小时内，已目睹多家中国云厂商在多方面的价格上调。腾讯的第三大业务板块营销服务与网络广告全年收入同比增长19%至1449.73亿元，是三大业务板块中增速最快的板块。腾讯将广告收入增长归因于AI带来的赋能，AI驱动的广告精准定向能力提升，广告主使用AI制作更多广告，以及闭环广告占比持续提升。广告曝光量也因视频号、微信搜一搜等产品参与度提高而小幅增长。AI投入拟翻倍值得注意的是，在三大业务板块表现稳健的同时，腾讯将在2026年明显加大对AI方面的投入力度。财报显示，2025年，腾讯全年研发开支同比增长21%至857.47亿元；销售及市场推广开支同比增长15%至417.27亿元；一般及行政开支同比增长21%至1361.27亿元，该项增长主要源于AI投资相关的员工成本及折旧费用，以及包括一笔40亿元的一次性股权激励支出。值得注意的是，截至2025年12月31日，腾讯共有员工115849名，较2024年的110558名增加超过5000人。2025年腾讯的总薪酬成本为1307亿元，相较于2024年的1128亿元，增长约15.9%。按此计算，腾讯员工2025年人均年薪收入超过百万元，达到112.8万元，与2024年102万元的人均薪酬相比，增长了10.8万元，增长幅度为10.59%。同时，腾讯全年资本开支达792亿元，同比增长3.18%，占营收的10.54%，主要投向AI基础设施与算力建设，这一资本开支规模低于此前市场预期。其中，2025年四季度资本开支同比下降46%至196.32亿元。在全球互联网大厂纷纷加大资本开支，加码AI基础设施建设的表现下，腾讯的资本支出力度明显不足。“2025年受制GPU(图形处理器)芯片供应等，集团资本开支未及预期，今年若条件允许，有意增加资本开支。腾讯2025年在AI新产品上的投入约为180亿元，今年至少会翻倍或以上，故可能适当减少股份回购规模。”腾讯总裁刘炽平在2025年业绩沟通会上表示。这也意味着，腾讯在2026年的资金使用上将减少股票回购规模，加大对AI方面的资本支出。根据财报及公开资料显示，腾讯2025年股票回购规模为800.36亿港元，回购1.53亿股并已注销，连续四年成为港股回购王。2025年，腾讯的自由现金流为1826亿元，同比增长18%，现金净额同比增长40%至1071.45亿元。腾讯董事会主席兼首席执行官马化腾在2025年业绩沟通会上表示，腾讯的核心业务富有韧性并产生充足的现金流，为我们加大AI投入提供了支撑，包括招募顶尖AI人才及升级AI基础设施。”马化腾同时提到，腾讯混元3.0大语言模型智能水平持续提升，元宝、WorkBuddy及QClaw等AI产品已开始产生实际效用，表明AI投入将为腾讯开拓新的机遇。从行业对比来看，腾讯此前的资本开支一直相对保守。根据公开资料显示，国内大厂方面，字节跳动2025年资本开支为1500亿元，计划2026年资本开支为1600亿元；阿里巴巴2025财年资本开支为925亿元，2025年至2027年规划资本开支为3800亿元。北美云厂商方面，谷歌2025年资本开支为914亿美元，2026年指引为1750亿-1850亿美元，同比增长91%-102%；亚马逊2025年资本开支1318亿美元，2026年指引为2000亿美元，同比增长59%；微软2025年资本开支为1180亿美元，2026年指引约1400亿-1500亿美元；Meta2025年资本开支为715亿美元，2026年指引1150亿-1350亿美元。能否取得相应回报？腾讯此前由于在AI方面的进展相对缓慢，其此前推出的混元大语言模型以及元宝聊天机器人APP等AI产品市场表现落后于主要竞争对手，被外界认为在AI方面较为保守，其股价自2025年10月以来持续回落。不过，其2026年以来在AI智能体上明显加快了动作。近两个月以来，OpenClaw“龙虾”AI智能体走红，引发全民“养虾”热潮。腾讯密集上线了五个“龙虾”产品。马化腾此前在转发腾讯龙虾产品矩阵文章的朋友圈中写道：“自研龙虾、本地虾、云端虾、企业虾、云桌面虾，安全隔离虾房、云保安、知识库……还有一批产品陆续赶来。”在此次业绩沟通会上，马化腾首次公开谈及他对“养虾”的思考。马化腾认为，“龙虾”应用能够让AI落地到各种丰富的场景中，而不像过去那样完全集中在聊天机器人里，这能够更好地发挥腾讯资源，让各战线联合发力，也为正在开发中的微信智能体带来了启发。据了解，腾讯正在为微信开发一款AI智能体，这款智能体将与微信内数百万个小程序连接，提供从打车到网购等各类服务，腾讯将这个项目视为“最高优先级的绝密项目”。虽然腾讯在AI智能体时代正在加快动作并加大对AI方面的投入，但市场仍然担心腾讯对于AI的投入是否能够换来相应的回报，以及由此引发的对净利润表现的担忧，这使得其股价在财报后的首个交易日下跌近7%。花旗银行提到，腾讯AI投资扩张，可能导致利润增长慢于收入增长。不过，花旗预计这将是短期现象，并相信随着时间推移，腾讯的核心业务带来的利润增长将抵消AI支出，使其恢复实现利润增长快于收入增长。同时，花旗表示，虽然腾讯可能不是AI竞赛中的先行者，但它有经证明的历史，比行业现有企业晚进入市场，最终成为领导者，这在游戏、社交网络和支付领域已得到体现。华泰证券表示，此前市场担忧腾讯在AI层面滞后，短期估值承压。然而随着OpenClaw出圈，市场公认社交应用成为接入“龙虾”的重要入口。腾讯抢先发布一系列“龙虾”产品，包括AI个人助理、办公场景等以抢占先机。华泰证券认为，AI竞争正由模型层转向产品层，腾讯依托微信和QQ入口，丰富的个人数据积累，以及多模态新团队搭建，其产品力有望持续兑现。公司有望在新一轮AI浪潮中稳固长期竞争力，推动Agent加速走向普惠化。高盛则认为，投资者和市场的下一步反应，将主要取决于腾讯在未来几个季度内核心业务的AI整合进展，以及混元3.0、元宝应用和智能体生态的实际落地效果。责编 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