AI末日论打错对象！腰斩甲骨文Q3业绩后狂飙12%_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

AI末日论打错对象！腰斩甲骨文Q3业绩后狂飙12%

中文投资网03-11 20:44

过去半年，围绕“AI软件股是否被高估”的争议持续发酵，市场甚至出现了所谓的“SaaS末日论”。在这一情绪冲击下，甲骨文Oracle（ORCL）股价从去年9月344.21美元的高点一路跌至约149美元，累计回撤超过50%。然而，随着周二盘后最新财报出炉，这种悲观叙事突然被打破。甲骨文Q3业绩全面超预期，并上调了指引，推动股价在盘后一度飙升近12%。01Q3业绩概览：营收、利润全面超预期调整后EPS：...

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Halving Oracle Bone Inscriptions' Q3 results after soaring 12%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCS":0.6,"ORCL":1.98,"ORCX":0.6,"ORCU":0.6},"content_text":"过去半年，围绕“AI软件股是否被高估”的争议持续发酵，市场甚至出现了所谓的“SaaS末日论”。在这一情绪冲击下，甲骨文Oracle（ORCL）股价从去年9月344.21美元的高点一路跌至约149美元，累计回撤超过50%。然而，随着周二盘后最新财报出炉，这种悲观叙事突然被打破。甲骨文Q3业绩全面超预期，并上调了指引，推动股价在盘后一度飙升近12%。01Q3业绩概览：营收、利润全面超预期调整后EPS：1.79美元，市场预期1.70美元营收：171.9亿美元，市场预期169亿美元，同比增长22%净利润：37.2亿美元，高于去年同期的29.4亿美元。在宏观科技板块普遍承压的背景下，20%以上的收入增速对于一家成熟的软件公司来说仍然非常强劲。但真正驱动市场情绪反转的，不是传统软件业务，而是云与AI基础设施的爆发式增长。02AI云业务爆发：基础设施收入飙升84%如果说整体业绩超预期给了投资者一颗定心丸，那云业务的细分数据，才是这份财报真正令人眼前一亮的地方。公司云总收入达到89亿美元，同比增长44%，其中增长最迅猛的是AI相关算力业务：云基础设施（IaaS），营收为49亿美元，同比暴增84%，较上季度68%的增速进一步加快。这意味着，甲骨文正在快速从一家传统数据库软件厂商，转型为AI算力基础设施提供商。AI客户的需求正在迅速推高其云平台使用量，包括：OpenAI、Microsoft旗下游戏部门动视暴雪、软银、Air France-KLM、Lockheed Martin。与传统SaaS相比，AI算力需求具有更高增长弹性，也解释了为何甲骨文云收入增速远高于大多数企业软件公司。035530亿美元订单：AI需求远超供给如果说季度业绩是已经发生的好消息，那么剩余履约义务（RPO）就是将要发生的好消息。截至本季末，甲骨文RPO高达5530亿美元，同比激增325%，较上季度单季新增290亿美元。这意味着甲骨文手握的未来确定性收入规模，已经是一年前的四倍有余。RPO本质上是未来已经签约但尚未确认的收入，因此这一数字几乎相当于公司未来几年的收入储备。管理层透露，这些订单大部分来自大型AI基础设施合同。更关键的是，这些合同采用了一种特殊模式：客户提前支付资金用于购买GPU或者客户自带GPU硬件。这意味着，甲骨文可以扩张算力，但不需要承担全部资本支出。这极大缓解了市场此前担心的一个问题：AI数据中心建设会不会拖垮公司现金流。04指引上调：900亿美元目标除了当季业绩，甲骨文还给出了更乐观的展望，显示出管理层对未来的充满信心。公司将2027财年营收目标上调至900亿美元，高于市场预期的866亿美元。同时，公司预计Q4调整后EPS为1.96至2.00美元，高于市场一致预期的1.93美元；收入增长19%-20%，对应约189至192亿美元，与市场预期的191亿美元基本吻合。05资本扩张与融资：500亿美元，钱从哪来？外界对甲骨文最大的担忧之一，是其高速扩张背后的资金压力。过去12个月，公司自由现金流为负131.8亿美元；Q1资本支出同比激增269%至85亿美元，全年资本支出预计高达500亿美元。为此，公司今年2月宣布计划在本财年通过债务与股权融资合计募集450至500亿美元，并承诺2026自然年内不会在此之外额外发债。消息公布数日后，公司即完成300亿美元融资，市场信心可见一斑。在数据中心产能方面，甲骨文已通过合作伙伴锁定超过10吉瓦的电力与数据中心容量，将于未来三年内陆续上线，其中逾90%已完成资金安排。AI基础设施毛利率指引约为30%，本季度实际毛利率已达32%。06AI重塑组织：裁员背后的降本逻辑财报前后，甲骨文传出裁员\"数千人\"的消息，一度引发市场担忧。然而，管理层在电话会上给出了一个截然不同的解读框架：联合创始人Larry Ellison表示，AI代码生成技术效率的大幅提升，使公司能够以更少的人力、更短的时间开发出更多软件。因此，公司正将产品研发团队重组为规模更小、更敏捷、更高效的小组。裁员不是被迫收缩，而是技术驱动的主动转型。Ellison甚至放言：SaaS末日论对别的公司或许适用，但不适用于甲骨文。因为AI代码生成工具正让甲骨文以更低成本为更多行业构建SaaS应用，持续强化竞争力和盈利能力。结语：AI末日论，还是打错了对象过去半年，市场用54%的跌幅表达了对甲骨文AI转型路径的深度质疑：巨额资本支出、沉重债务负担、利润率偏低的GPU租赁模式……这些担忧并非空穴来风。但这份财报告诉我们：甲骨文的商业模式，正在悄悄发生质变。5530亿美元的RPO是真金白银的订单；客户出钱买GPU的新合同结构大幅降低了资本风险；AI代码生成技术正在系统性压低软件开发成本；而900亿美元的FY27营收目标，也绝非管理层的一时豪言。AI浪潮从来不是赢者通吃，但在云基础设施这个赛道上，拥有真实订单、真实产能、真实客户的甲骨文，或许比市场此前预期的更有资格站在牌桌上。左右滑动查看更多","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}