凶猛的比亚迪，同时断了油车和换电的后路_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

凶猛的比亚迪，同时断了油车和换电的后路

松果投研03-09 19:50

碍于舆论，你很少能看到有企业给自己的产品做绝对领先的宣传。但昨晚比亚迪在发布会的画风是这样的：以及这样的：当比亚迪确认电动化上半场完美收官时，就意味着它确实有信心定义接下来的下半场。而作为极致的技术控，比亚迪第二代刀片电池实现的快充，和比亚迪自身的闪充站布局叠加，也足够做到让油车车主不怕补能，让换电的便利不再无敌。电池做到这个程度，用户才能不关心电池王传福在台上讲了一个简单的类比：买燃油车时，几乎...

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time","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"01211":1.98,"002594":1.98,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"BYDDY":1.98},"content_text":"碍于舆论，你很少能看到有企业给自己的产品做绝对领先的宣传。但昨晚比亚迪在发布会的画风是这样的：以及这样的：当比亚迪确认电动化上半场完美收官时，就意味着它确实有信心定义接下来的下半场。而作为极致的技术控，比亚迪第二代刀片电池实现的快充，和比亚迪自身的闪充站布局叠加，也足够做到让油车车主不怕补能，让换电的便利不再无敌。电池做到这个程度，用户才能不关心电池王传福在台上讲了一个简单的类比：买燃油车时，几乎没人关心油箱到底多大。六七百公里的纯燃油续航，看起来并不夸张，但因为加油快、加油站密，用户从来不觉得不够。纯电车这几年已经把标称续航拉到七八百公里，甚至一千公里，可消费者在选车时依然纠结每一公里的差距，本质不是能跑多远，而是万一没电怎么办。第二代刀片电池试图正面回答的，就是这个“怎么办”。它在相同体积里把容量做大，而且把效率提升了。腾势 Z9GT 是最典型的样本，它底盘架构和轴距不变，电池包从约 100度做到了 120 多度，CLTC 续航直接抬到 1036 公里，接近此前 150 度、140 度大电池包车型的水平，却没有让整车陷于极端的重量和成本。而且，比亚迪将充电时间提升到了一个震撼的水平。常温下，多款搭载第二代刀片电池的新车，从 10% 充到 70%，大约只要五分钟；从 10% 飞速补能到接近满电的 97%，也在十分钟之内。行业里过去喜欢拿10%—80% 半小时内作为快充能力的衡量标准，是因为电量越往后冲，电芯越难吃进去电，最后那一截略微有点尴尬。但比亚迪直接撕掉了遮羞布：别人做不到的事，我比亚迪来做。充电曲线在接近尾端之前，基本不刹车，真正做到了从头快到尾。这背后的技术细节，比亚迪只解释了在材料体系、电极结构、电芯堆叠和系统设计四个层级重构，让锂离子在电池内部有了更顺畅的“高速通道”，压低内阻，从而在全程维持高功率充电。极端工况下的表现，更像是专门为“电车不过山海关”这个老梗去的一次回应。哈尔滨冬测和实验室数据都指向同一个结论：在零下二三十度、车辆静置一整天、确保电池彻底“冻透”的前提下，从大约 20% 充到接近满电，用时也不会大幅增加，比现在许多车型在室温下的充电速度还要短。对北方用户来说，这是一个喜讯——当然，油车在这个时候的优势又进一步被削弱了。比亚迪还在寿命和安全上给出了一份“反向担保”。第二代刀片电池的能量密度比上一代提升了约 5%，但在质保政策上，允许容量衰减的阈值反而从 85% 抬到了 87.5%。它不是通过透支寿命来换快充速度，而是用更高的设计余量来对冲用户对“快充伤电池”的惯性认知。叠加高强度针刺、短路、撞击等一系列远高于国标的试验，比亚迪从工程角度，让这代电池惊艳了电车界众生。而当电池的续航、充电、低温和安全性能，都实现飞跃，用户对电池本身的关注就会自然下降，产品力上了新的台阶。闪充站建得像空调一样好装，电网也能接受和第二代刀片电池一起亮相的比亚迪兆瓦闪充补能体系稍微引发了一些争议，因为不少车主觉得虽然其总数多，但单个规模并不大。不过，考虑到比亚迪在电网、储能方面的积累，它的一整套从电网端到车机交互的方案，其实有深意。首先看充电设备，单枪 1500kW 的充电桩，刷新了目前量产桩的功率上限，比它自己一年前亮相的兆瓦级闪充又高出约三成。滑轨悬吊式 T 型桩这样的机械设计，把原本又粗又重、经常在地上拖来拖去的线缆吊到半空，用户拿枪、插枪的动作都更轻量、更干净，这些细节会直接作用在日常体验上。但它真正的意义在于和电网、现有充电站和整个行业连接在一起。全国现有约 480 万个公共充电桩，都以 1000kW 的功率级别来设计的话，总量就会远远超过目前电网的最大供电能力。哪怕只替换其中一小部分，传统做法也意味着漫长的报批、扩容和配套改造过程——这恰恰是过去十年限制高功率快充站铺开的关键瓶颈。比亚迪的解法，是在每一座闪充站后面放一只“大电池”。它把储能系统和快充桩绑定在一起，形成“储充一体”的结构：平峰时段慢慢从电网“蓄水”，高峰时段集中向车辆“放水”，对电网看到的是一条相对平滑的负荷曲线，对车主看到的是一次次高功率的闪充过程。大功率出现在车和站之间，而不是整条输电网络上。一旦这个“蓄水池”足够大、成本足够低，我们就不再需要为每一座闪充站单独做大规模扩容，只要有电，就可以工作。现有的社会充电站，只要在原有场地上换桩、接入储能模块，就能变成一座“站中站”。“建闪充站像装空调一样简单”，真正难的是把储能、电池、电控三件事同时做深，而这三块又都是比亚迪的老本行。因此，比亚迪敢于给出一个夸张的目标：到 2026 年底，建成 2 万座闪充站，其中 1.8 万座是和现有运营商合作的改造型“站中站”，另外 2000 座是覆盖全国约三分之一高速服务区的高速闪充站，计划在今年五一前先落地首批 1000 座。另外，比亚迪正在变得更聪明，一方面，闪充站对电网要求低、改造成本可控，只要把站里的枪换成支持闪充的设备，再加一组储能模块，原有充电场地就可以升级。对第三方来说，这是一次不需要重新拿地和报批的“提效改造”，在节假日高峰和高频通勤场景里能多赚多少服务费，很容易算清。另一方面，比亚迪把一部分话语权交给了车主。只要有四位以上搭载第二代刀片电池的车主在 App 上联名申请建站，比亚迪会实地勘察，条件合适就以一周为单位推进建设。新车主还被附赠一年全国闪充站免费充电的权益，闪充站本身对全行业新能源车型开放，收费标准“与友商看齐”。比亚迪这样的补能体系，将成为全行业的标杆。而过去相对以便利取胜的换电等其他模式，就要掂量掂量未来的情况了。补能改变了竞争的底层逻辑这场发布会虽然还是很有比亚迪“味”地展示了一大堆数据实证上的领先，但相比数据，比亚迪带来的两个效应更值得思考。第一，它在用户侧重新定义了“电车好不好”的标准。过去几年，纯电车竞争很大程度上是围绕续航里程在做文章，这是一种在油箱逻辑下延伸出来的思路——把电池当成新的油箱，能装越多越好。但第二代刀片电池和闪充网络一起推出来之后，用户的判断会逐渐转向“时间维度”：从电量很低到可以安心继续开的状态，需要几分钟；冬天会不会拖慢；城里、城外、节假日能不能找到足够多的桩。当补能时间变得和上个洗手间的时间差不多，续航本身的分歧就不再需要通过极端的大电池来解决，车企可以有更大的自由度，在安全性、操控感、车内空间和成本之间做平衡。比亚迪自己这次就是这么做的。一端是千公里续航的旗舰 Z9GT 和仰望、U8 这类高段位产品，另一端是起价在十几万的海狮 06 EV、海豹 07 EV、宋 Ultra EV 等走量车型，同样能享受第二代刀片电池和闪充技术的红利——技术从高端到大众的下沉速度明显加快了。第二，比亚迪把竞争拉回到了最熟悉的三电主场，而它将颠覆之前市场的一些看法：市场觉得比亚迪过去一年的动力不足了，包括股价也跌了一年，是因为没有在这个阶段的竞争中做出新的亮点。但比亚迪放了一个大招，这个大招的影响力远超市场炒作的智驾等概念。在电池、储能、充电体系三件事情上，比亚迪事实上又一次把自己推到了行业前列。更有意思的是，过去几年，“电比油低”“油电同价”这些打法，本质都是在用插混去蚕食燃油车的份额，同时也给纯电充电慢、补能不方便的问题买了时间。如今，当闪充技术和网络铺开，十分钟级别补能成为一种常态，插混的那个“备用油箱”在很多场景里就不再是刚需，而变成一种偏向特定人群的选择。比亚迪突破了自己，也顺带突破了不少友商的天花板。隐藏在幕后的产业链优势，正在越来越全面地展现影响力。勇气源自判断，“闪充中国”如果按规划落地，它对国内新能源汽车竞争格局的影响，远不止于比亚迪自己的车辆销售。在一个电池性能和车机功能日趋同质化的市场里，谁能在基础设施和生态层面给用户更稳定、更可预期的体验，谁就多了一层壁垒。将来当消费者选车时，很多底层逻辑都在跟着改变。电动化上半场的本质是“从有到好”，下半场则开始比“好到多好”，比谁能让电动变成一种不需要被时刻记起的存在。第二代刀片电池和闪充生态，是比亚迪对这个下半场交出的第一版答案。至于它能不能把答案写完整，时间会给出更清晰的评价。来源：松果财经","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}