工业富联年报点评：苹果新机+Rubin或驱动26收入高增_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

工业富联年报点评：苹果新机+Rubin或驱动26收入高增

华泰证券03-12 16:14

工业富联 2025全年实现营收9028.87亿元(yoy+48.22%)，归母净利润352.86亿元(yoy+51.99%)。2025年，以GPU服务器代工为核心的云计算业务毛利额同比大幅增长116.5%到345亿人民币，占公司总毛利达54.8%，成为公司最大业务部门，或反映Blackwell等英伟达GPU服务器大批量出货对业务的拉动作用。展望2026年：1)据Trendforce，北美CSP资本...

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2025全年实现营收9028.87亿元(yoy+48.22%)，归母净利润352.86亿元(yoy+51.99%)。2025年，以GPU服务器代工为核心的云计算业务毛利额同比大幅增长116.5%到345亿人民币，占公司总毛利达54.8%，成为公司最大业务部门，或反映Blackwell等英伟达GPU服务器大批量出货对业务的拉动作用。展望2026年：1)据Trendforce，北美CSP资本开支或保持61%的强劲增长，在Rubin等英伟达下一代服务器出货的带动下，我们预测公司云计算业务2026年收入保持83%的强劲增长，2)在手机市场总体承压的大环境下，苹果新机的规格升级有望提升公司相关业务产品单价，推动公司收入增长。目标价93元，重申买入。2025回顾：云计算业务毛利增长116.5%，成为核心增长引擎分业务看，以英伟达GPU服务器代工等为核心产品的云计算业务收入同比增长88.7%，毛利额同比增长116.5%，占集团整体毛利比例同比+18.8pct到54.8%，是公司业务规模大幅增长的主要动力。我们认为这主要反映从2H25开始，英伟达的GB200/GB300NVL72服务器集群批量出货带来的业绩拉动效果。另一方面，以手机精密机构件和通信设备为主的通信及移动网络设备收入同比增长3.5%，毛利额同比增长0.4%，毛利占比下降18.2pct到43.9%。其中通信网络设备高精密机构件2025年销售量实现12.85%同比增长，或反映公司在消费电子大客户的份额提升。2026展望：苹果新机+Rubin升级或驱动2026年收入继续高增展望2026年，我们认为：1)AI需求驱动下，2026年全球CSP资本开支有望继续强劲增长。据Trendforce，预计2026年八大主要CSP的合计资本支出将超越7,100亿美元，增速约61%；2)英伟达下一代服务器Rubin或从今年下半年开始出货，看好Rubin系列增厚公司收入；3)公司关键零组件自供价值量持续提升，在GPU模组、计算板、Smart NIC等环节份额领先，有助于带动获利结构持续优化；4)2026年手机市场虽然受存储缺货影响，需求整体承压。但苹果有望在今年推出折叠屏等下一代新产品，看好公司相关业务产品单价提升。盈利预测与估值考虑到2026-2027年AI服务器新品对收入/利润的增厚，上调公司26-27E收入0.5%/7.8%，上调26-27E归母净利润1.8%/7.5%。预测2026-2028E归母净利润同比+59%/+21%/+16%至560/675/780亿人民币，对应EPS为2.82/3.40/3.93元人民币。基于2026EPS2.82元，参考可比公司2026E PE一致预期均值23.5x，鉴于公司是AI算力基础设施的核心供应商，考虑到2026年AI服务器有望持续放量，我们给予公司一定估值溢价，对应2026E33x PE，给予目标价93元(前值：100元，对应2026E36.1X PE)，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：宏观下行和贸易摩擦风险，创新产品渗透不及预期风险，情景测算和实际不符的风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}