美团的即时零售梦，被阿里和京东“奶茶泡沫”淹没_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美团的即时零售梦，被阿里和京东“奶茶泡沫”淹没

大V商业03-12 18:11

文丨周铭出品丨大V商业两年前，美团一度跌到谷底。2024年1月，美团的市值只有3500亿元左右，这几乎是2020年之后的最低点，和最高点2.3万亿元相比，市值只剩15%。当时抖音大举进入到团购和餐饮领域，市场担心美团利润最厚的业务要被抖音截胡了。如今历史重演。美团的市值为4100亿元左右，股价最低一度跌至73.6港元每股，相比2025年初腰斩，和两年前的低点只有“一步之遥”。25年初，京东搅动了...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260312182225954a3c2c&s=b><strong>大V商业</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨周铭出品丨大V商业两年前，美团一度跌到谷底。2024年1月，美团的市值只有3500亿元左右，这几乎是2020年之后的最低点，和最高点2.3万亿元相比，市值只剩15%。当时抖音大举进入到团购和餐饮领域，市场担心美团利润最厚的业务要被抖音截胡了。如今历史重演。美团的市值为4100亿元左右，股价最低一度跌至73.6港元每股，相比2025年初腰斩，和两年前的低点只有“一步之遥”。25年初，京东搅动了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260312182225954a3c2c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1048588211.SGD","symbol_name":"Blackrock Asian Dragon A2 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2014 年就有人尝试过类似模式，最终以失败告终”。此外，王莆中还披露美团非餐饮日订单量已突破1800万单，其矛头直指京东外卖，试图在市场竞争中占据舆论高地。面对美团的公开挑衅，京东迅速做出反击。刘强东不但身着骑手制服亲自送外卖，而且发布《致骑手公开信》，直接指责美团存在“二选一”的不正当竞争行为。在这场激烈的市场争夺战中，看似阿里缄默寡言，但实际上，它却是推动即时零售竞争演变成烧钱大战的主导者。2025年7月，淘宝闪购宣布启动规模高达500亿元的补贴计划，直接让利消费者及商家。美团、京东被迫跟进。这场大战导致了整个市场两个因素短时间不可逆。第一是骑手数量大量增加。阿里和京东嫌弃的0元奶茶，导致奶茶店和骑手同时爆单，大量的新骑手涌进即时配送行业，同时，争夺骑手需要大额的补贴，导致行业平均履约成本大幅提高。比如说，2025年前三季度在营收同比减少的情况，销售成本却大幅增加，其中就包含骑手补贴的增加。第二是履约成本提高。按理说，骑手数量增加，单均价格会降低。但是2025年开始出现微妙变化的风向变化，向平台经济中的参与者分配更多利润，可能是未来的核心引导方向。比如说，此次外卖大战，骑手的保障被放到桌面上。即时配送的行业平均履约成本，经过美团的多年来的优化降低到6元左右，经此一役，价格短期内可能不可逆地回升。另外，运力的争夺，导致美团在去年后半年上线了一对一急送服务，这也无形中抬高了配送的成本。我们注意到，美团在过去几年大量投资了配送机器人、服务机器人，包括自身的配送无人车和无人机，美团更大的押注应该在于技术升级带来的机器换人。如果没有这次骑手的争抢，美团可以逐步优化成本，比如深圳地区常态化的无人机配送。▌3、即时零售下半场，拼什么？即时零售最大的变化，来自于骑手数量的变化。即时零售最终是骑手来保证履约，骑手作为运力最主要的承载，骑手数量代表了平台的履约保障。大战之前，美团的骑手数量占据绝对优势。而到了去年底，阿里系的骑手数量开始和美团平分秋色。摩根大通去年11月发布的调研数据显示，美团外卖的市场份额为50%，阿里系（饿了么+淘宝闪购）占42%，京东外卖占8%。按照订单数量对应骑手数量来粗略估算，二者差距大幅缩小。骑手数量变化，导致非餐类即时零售的竞争也发生变化。过去，美团凭借骑手的优势在生鲜、酒、医药、便利店食杂品类占据绝对优势。如果不是外卖大战，美团2025年可能会是零售业最激进的平台。美团日订单高峰触及1亿单的长期目标，再加上美团歪马送酒、闪电仓、药品、小象超市、数码等业务进入快车道，歪马送酒势头一度让很多烟酒店老板头疼，闪电仓的渗透加速，名创优品等品牌和美团达成合作，美团医药接入医保报销，小象超市在20-23年取代优选成为超级生鲜渠道，美团买手机心智逐渐加深。即时零售的六大场景，医药用品、超市连锁、便利店、生鲜水果、3C数码家电、鲜花，美团几乎拿下了5张船票。多么好的开局。但是随着外卖大战开打，一切都变了。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}