SEA：优先追求增长将带来短期利润波动_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

SEA：优先追求增长将带来短期利润波动

华泰证券03-05

4Q25 SEA 收入为68.5 亿美元，同增38.4%，好于VA（Visible Alpha）一致预期（口径下同）的63.9 亿美元，主因三大板块收入均好于预期。4Q25经调整EBITDA 7.9 亿美元，逊于一致预期的8.4 亿美元。管理层在4Q25业绩会上（下同）预计电商板块GMV 有望在2026 年全年实现超过25%的同比增速，并表示2026 年电商板块经调整EBITDA 利润绝对额将高于...

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R/A SGD"},"translate_title":"SEA: Prioritizing Growth Pursuit Will Bring Short-Term Profit Volatility","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":1.95},"content_text":"4Q25 SEA 收入为68.5 亿美元，同增38.4%，好于VA（Visible Alpha）一致预期（口径下同）的63.9 亿美元，主因三大板块收入均好于预期。4Q25经调整EBITDA 7.9 亿美元，逊于一致预期的8.4 亿美元。管理层在4Q25业绩会上（下同）预计电商板块GMV 有望在2026 年全年实现超过25%的同比增速，并表示2026 年电商板块经调整EBITDA 利润绝对额将高于2025年，其短期目标将是追求增长并保持财务纪律，并对实现电商长期经调整EBITDA/GMV 利润率2-3%的水平仍保持信心。展望后续，我们建议持续关注东南亚和巴西电商的区域竞争格局变化趋势、公司为强化长期竞争力和用户体验进行的相关投入的进展成效，我们认为在经历投入期后公司的能力提升或将帮助公司在长期维度获得更佳的用户体验反馈、消费粘性和用户口袋份额。维持“买入”评级。电商：广告工具变现率同比提升，持续投入物流、会员和内容生态4Q25 电商收入同增35.8%至49.7 亿美元，好于一致预期的47.0 亿美元。板块经调整EBITDA 为2.0 亿美元，对应经调整EBITDA 利润率4.1%，同比下降0.1pp，我们认为主因部分物流履约体验和VIP 订阅项目上的投入。广告收入4Q25 同比增长70%，广告佣金率同比提升超0.8pp。4Q25 电商订单量与GMV 分别同增30.5%/28.6%。展望2026 年，管理层表示将持续强化物流能力、推进Shopee VIP 会员体系建设以及扩展内容生态体系以扩大用户覆盖和用户参与度。电子支付：贷款规模和用户数实现较快增长4Q25 电子支付收入同增54.3%至11.3 亿美元，优于一致预期的同增46.9%。板块经调整EBITDA 2.6 亿美元，同增24.7%，对应经调整EBITDA利润率23.2%。4Q25 末，Monee 贷款余额约92 亿美元，同增80.4%，不良贷款占比约为1.1%，同比略有优化。截至4Q25 末，公司消费贷款和中小企业贷款产品活跃用户数达到3,700 万人，同增超40%。展望未来，管理层表示对该板块的增长前景保持高度信心，当前多项举措仍处于早期阶段，尚有大量潜在机会有待释放。除信贷业务外，公司亦在数字银行、保险等领域拓展产品与服务矩阵，并预计Monee 将成为长期重要利润贡献来源。我们期待该业务在Shopee 应用内持续发挥与电商的协同性，并持续开发Shopee 应用外的非购物场景以挖掘业务潜力。游戏：管理层预计2026 年净预订量有望实现双位数增长4Q25 游戏收入同比35.1%至7.0 亿美元，好于一致预期的同比+12.5%，或主因《Free Fire》表现健康及其它游戏呈现稳健增长势头。板块经调整EBITDA 3.6 亿美元，同比+25.6%，对应经调整EBITDA 利润率51.9%，净预订量6.7 亿美元，同比+23.8%，好于一致预期的6.6 亿美元。用户方面，4Q25 季度活跃用户为6.3 亿人，同比+2.5%，付费用户为5800 万人，同比+15.1%，对应付费率为9.2%，同比上升1.0pp。展望2026 年，管理层认为板块有望实现双位数的净预订量增长，并计划将《火影忍者》联名IP继续拓展，预计将在3Q26 期间上线。盈利预测与估值考虑到公司为强化电商业务长期竞争力而进行的投入或使板块利润率短期兑现速度不及我们此前预期，我们下调2026/2027 年经调整EBITDA 预测17.2/13.9%至39.1/50.8 亿美元，并引入2028 年预测新值61.7 亿。我们将估值窗口切换至2026 年，基于分部估值给予目标价为132.6 美元（前值：184.0美元，2025 年）。风险提示：电商竞争激烈程度超预期，稀释利润率；跨境电商监管政策风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}