大摩Wilson：地缘冲击难阻牛市，只要油价不翻倍，标普500仍看高至7800点_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

大摩Wilson：地缘冲击难阻牛市，只要油价不翻倍，标普500仍看高至7800点

华尔街见闻03-02

伊朗冲突引发市场风险偏好回落，股票走弱，黄金、原油走强。大摩认为，若油价未出现75%至100%的大幅上涨并维持，且经济增长处于末期，股票市场更可能是阶段性回撤，而非持续下行。市场避险情绪升温，但美债收益率走高，市场对通胀上升的忧虑盖过了避险买盘，折射出油价是当前核心宏观变量。中东局势推升油价并触发全球市场短线避险，但摩根士丹利首席分析师Mike Wilson认为，这类地缘冲击通常难以把美股拖入持续...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

暂无评论

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2616307943?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-03-02 22:55","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2616307943","market":"sg","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"大摩Wilson：地缘冲击难阻牛市，只要油价不翻倍，标普500仍看高至7800点","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>伊朗冲突引发市场风险偏好回落，股票走弱，黄金、原油走强。大摩认为，若油价未出现75%至100%的大幅上涨并维持，且经济增长处于末期，股票市场更可能是阶段性回撤，而非持续下行。市场避险情绪升温，但美债收益率走高，市场对通胀上升的忧虑盖过了避险买盘，折射出油价是当前核心宏观变量。中东局势推升油价并触发全球市场短线避险，但摩根士丹利首席分析师Mike Wilson认为，这类地缘冲击通常难以把美股拖入持续...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766552\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩Wilson：地缘冲击难阻牛市，只要油价不翻倍，标普500仍看高至7800点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩Wilson：地缘冲击难阻牛市，只要油价不翻倍，标普500仍看高至7800点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-02 22:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766552><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>伊朗冲突引发市场风险偏好回落，股票走弱，黄金、原油走强。大摩认为，若油价未出现75%至100%的大幅上涨并维持，且经济增长处于末期，股票市场更可能是阶段性回撤，而非持续下行。市场避险情绪升温，但美债收益率走高，市场对通胀上升的忧虑盖过了避险买盘，折射出油价是当前核心宏观变量。中东局势推升油价并触发全球市场短线避险，但摩根士丹利首席分析师Mike Wilson认为，这类地缘冲击通常难以把美股拖入持续...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766552\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0225283273.USD","symbol_name":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766552","article_id":"2616307943","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766552","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616307943","pubTimestamp":1772463331,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"伊朗冲突引发市场风险偏好回落，股票走弱，黄金、原油走强。大摩认为，若油价未出现75%至100%的大幅上涨并维持，且经济增长处于末期，股票市场更可能是阶段性回撤，而非持续下行。市场避险情绪升温，但美债收益率走高，市场对通胀上升的忧虑盖过了避险买盘，折射出油价是当前核心宏观变量。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","IVOO":"Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 ETF","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","SPLV":"Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","TVIXF":"VelocityShare每日2X VIX短期ETN-CITI","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","MS":"摩根士丹利","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BMAY":"Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - May","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","SPYV":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","VXZ":"中期波动率指数期货ETN","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","VYLD":"Inverse VIX Short Term Futures ETN","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","XDTE":"Roundhill S&P 500 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","SVIX":"1倍做空短期期货恐慌指数ETF","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","SVOL":"Simplify Volatility Premium ETF","IVW":"标普500成长股指数ETF-iShares","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","VVIX":"VIX指数之波动率指数","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","USMV":"美国最小波动率ETF-iShares","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","GPIX":"GOLDMAN SACHS S&P 500 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","VOOV":"Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VIXM":"波动率中期期货ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC"},"translate_title":"Morgan Stanley Wilson: Geopolitical shocks cannot stop the bull market, as long as oil prices do not double, the S&P 500 is still bullish as high as 7,800 points","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90b20f5c835a1e7d1152283ebb9d40c","symbols_score_info":{"SPLV":0.6,"VVIX":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,"VOOV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,".SPX":1.95,"SPXU":0.6,"BMAY":0.6,"VIXmain":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"IVOO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SVXY":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"IVW":0.6,"VYLD":0.6,"TVIXF":0.6,"SVIX":0.6,"SVOL":0.6,"VXX":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"VTI":0.6,"USMV":0.6,"SPY":1.95,"VIXM":0.6,"GPIX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPYV":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"VIXY":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"VXMmain":0.6,"SPYI":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"VXZ":0.6,"XDTE":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"MS":1.91,"SPXL":0.6},"content_text":"伊朗冲突引发市场风险偏好回落，股票走弱，黄金、原油走强。大摩认为，若油价未出现75%至100%的大幅上涨并维持，且经济增长处于末期，股票市场更可能是阶段性回撤，而非持续下行。市场避险情绪升温，但美债收益率走高，市场对通胀上升的忧虑盖过了避险买盘，折射出油价是当前核心宏观变量。中东局势推升油价并触发全球市场短线避险，但摩根士丹利首席分析师Mike Wilson认为，这类地缘冲击通常难以把美股拖入持续下跌，决定性变量仍是油价是否出现“历史级”且“持续性”的飙升。本周初，美国与以色列针对伊朗的冲突引发市场风险偏好回落，股指走弱，黄金，原油与美元走强，美债价格下跌、收益率上行的同时，市场也在评估油价上行对通胀预期的影响。Wilson强调，历史数据显示地缘风险事件往往不会给股市带来持续波动，标普500在事件发生后1个月、6个月、12个月平均分别上涨约2%，6%，8%。Wilson进一步指出，若油价未出现同比75%至100%的大幅上涨并在高位维持，美股牛市逻辑仍在。他维持标普500年底目标位7,800点，并表示若投资者保持谨慎，其偏好的防御板块为医疗保健。截至发稿，布伦特原油上涨8.21%至78.85。复盘：多数地缘冲击后，股市恢复更快Wilson在报告中称，从历史统计看，地缘风险事件对美股更像是“短促的波动源”，而非趋势性熊市的起点。以标普500为例，相关事件发生后的回报在1个月、6个月、12个月维度上平均为正。他同时指出，12个月维度中对股市伤害最严重的样本来自1973年的Yom Kippur war，其关键在于随之而来的原油供给冲击并触发经济衰退，这也凸显了油价在地缘冲击向金融市场传导中的核心地位。熊市触发条件：油价需“猛涨且持续”，并叠加周期后段在Wilson看来，与周末伊朗及中东事件相关的“熊市情景”，主要发生在油价显著且持续上行，从而威胁商业周期持续性的情况下。他给出的历史经验阈值是两点同时满足：其一，油价同比涨幅达到75%至100%，其二，冲击发生在经济增长周期的后期阶段。缺少其中任何一项，地缘事件更可能演变为阶段性回撤，而非结构性下行。现状：油价同比仅约8%，大摩维持年底7,800点目标Wilson表示，当前并不符合上述“高风险组合”。他认为当下处于“早周期环境”，盈利修复正在加速。目前原油同比变动仍处于温和正值，约为8%。因此，他判断除非油价快速飙升并维持高位，否则近期事件不太可能改变其对未来6至12个月美股的看多判断。Wilson维持标普500年底7,800点目标位。若投资者倾向防御，他最偏好医疗保健板块。市场分化：能源、国防领涨，航空股承压地缘局势升级在市场内部制造了明显的板块分化。Lockheed Martin和RTX股价跳涨，受益于美军在对伊打击行动中消耗大量军火装备的预期。软件公司Palantir亦是盘前少数录得上涨的科技股之一，该公司是美国军方的主要软件供应商。另一方面，United（UAL）和American（AAL）等航空公司股价走低，投资者担忧伊朗冲突将扰乱航空旅行并推高燃油成本。美国国债方面，价格下跌推动10年期美债收益率走高，反映出市场对通胀前景的忧虑盖过了避险买盘，这一现象本身亦印证了Wilson关于油价才是当前宏观核心变量的判断。OPEC+的超预期增产决定，目前被市场视为潜在的供应端缓冲因素。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}