英伟达的历史最佳成绩，能消灭“AI 泡沫论”吗？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

英伟达的历史最佳成绩，能消灭“AI 泡沫论”吗？

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文 | 时间线Timelines，作者 | 308，编辑 | 周易2026年2月25日美东时间美股盘后，英伟达终于发布了备受瞩目的2026财年第四季度及全年财报。这份财报之所以备受瞩目，是因为在AI泡沫论尘嚣日上的大背景下，这份财报能够在很大程度上决定市场对于AI前景的判断——也因此，英伟达的这份财报，也被外界冠上了“全球最重要财报”的名头。事实证明，英伟达的这份财报依旧很硬。无论是盈利，还是...

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行业来说，英伟达这份财报，究竟意味着什么？业绩表现，全面超越预期如果从一句话形容英伟达的这份财报，应该是：全面超越预期。数据显示，在这份截至2026年1月25日的2026财年第四季度财报中，英伟达给出了高达681亿美元的营收，环比增长20%，同比增长幅度更是高达73%。伴随这一成绩，英伟达在2026年财年的营收为2159亿美元，同比增长65%。在营收之外，英伟达的利润表现也是相当亮眼。数据显示，英伟达在四季度的毛利率为75%，相比于去年同期增加了两个百分点，环比也增加了1.6个百分点。净利润方面，英伟达四季度GAAP净利润为429.6亿美元，环比增长了35%，同比增加幅度更是高达94%。无论从各种角度来看，英伟达的整体财务成绩都相当出色，可以说是一台妥妥的印钞机。英伟达之所以能够取得如此亮眼的成绩，其核心支撑点，自然还是它的数据中心业务。数据显示，四季度英伟达来自于数据中心的营收为623亿美元，环比增长22%，同比增长75%。英伟达表示，这一增长主要是加速计算和AI的持续转型。值得一提的是，伴随这一成绩，英伟达的数据中心业务在2026财年的全年营收达到了1937亿美元，同比增长68%。在数据中心业务之外，英伟达的游戏与AI PC业务板块也实现了较大幅度的增长。四季度，该业务板块的营收为37亿美元，同比增长了47%——该板块在2026财年的营收也达到了创纪录的160亿美元，同比增幅达41%。在专业可视化业务板块，英伟达的四季度营收为13亿美元，环比增幅为74%，而同比增长幅度更是高达159%，整个财年的营收为32亿美元，增幅达到了70%——英伟达表示，这是基于对Blackwell的特殊需求。另外，在汽车和机器人板块，英伟达在四季度的营收为6.04亿美元，同比增长幅度为6%——在整个财年，该板块的营收为23亿美元，同比增长幅度为39%。除了营收和利润表现，英伟达第四季度的经营活动现金流为362亿美元；作为对比，英伟达去年同期的经营活动现金流为166亿美元，上季度为238亿美元。在财报中，英伟达还给出了针对2027财年第一季度的业绩展望，预计营收达到780亿美元（不含来自中国的数据中心计算业务收入），上下浮动为2%，高于华尔街分析师普遍预期的726亿美元；同时，英伟达预计其GAAP和Non-GAAP毛利率分别为为74.9%和57%。总体来看，英伟达各大业务板块都整体实现了增长态势；尤其是数据中心板块，不仅实现了高增长，还为英伟达的营收增长和利润表现都做出了巨大贡献——而面向新的季度，英伟达给出的指引依旧乐观。Vera Rubin 下半年量产发货对于英伟达来说，数据中心业务无疑是其营收、利润以及市值表现的核心支柱。一个值得关注的数据是，根据英伟达CFO Colette Kress在财报电话会议中的说法，自ChatGPT出现以来，英伟达数据中心业务收入已经增长近13倍。与此同时，仅仅从2026财年第四季度的表现来看，数据中心业务占据英伟达营收的比例，已经高达91.48%。如果把数据中心业务拆分来看，在这个营收达623亿美元的营收板块中，“计算业务”（其核心产品就是GPU）的营收为513亿美元，同比增长幅度达58%；同时，“网络业务”的营收为110亿美元，同比增长更是高达263%。也就是说，相比于用于大模型训练的高端GPU来说，在英伟达的技术与产品体系中，包括NVLink计算架构、以太网、InfiniBand平台等在内的英伟达数据中心互联产品，体现出了更加强劲的增长态势。而从GPU的角度来看，基于Blackwell的GPU无疑是英伟达在数据中心业务取得重大突破的核心产品，其中包括GB200、GB300等产品。此前在2025年10月，英伟达CEO黄仁勋表示，在过去四个季度已经出货600万个Blackwell GPU，从Blackwell到即将推出的Rubin芯片，英伟达的GPU销售额预计将达到5000亿美元，订单量约为2000万颗GPU——需要说明的是，在数据中心业务之外，英伟达其他业务部门的增长，也受益于Blackwell架构。不过，从目前的情况来看，英伟达正在逐步推进从Blackwell架构向VeraRubin架构的过渡。在本次财报中，英伟达对外公布其Vera Rubin相关产品的研发与上市计划——关于Vera Rubin平台，英伟达表示该平台包含六款新芯片，与Blackwell平台相比，可将推理token成本降低最高10倍。英伟达表示，已向部分客户交付面向下一代人工智能数据中心的Vera Rubin AI平台样品，计划于2026年下半年正式启动量产发货，预计相关平台的部署工作将在2026年下半年至2027年初展开。根据英伟达发布的消息，这些首批部署Vera Rubin的客户包括AWS、Google Cloud、微软Azure和甲骨文云基础设施。在财报中，关于Vera Rubin架构，英伟达方面表示，Vera Rubin是一个非常优秀的架构，目前已经为不同客户的众多订单进行了规划，市场对其兴趣极其浓厚、需求极其旺盛。同时，英伟达强调，几乎所有数据中心客户都会采购Vera Rubin，目前的问题只是产品进入市场以及客户在数据中心完成测试的速度——这同样是非常乐观的论调。另外，关于数据中心业务的客户多元化问题，英伟达方面承认，目前该公司的前五大客户（通信服务提供商和超大规模数据中心客户）占到了总收入的50%以上，但整体增长是由其余客户群带动的。但英伟达强调，在贡献了大约一半营收的超大规模数据中心客户之外，其目前其正在与极其多元化的公司合作，包括AI模型制造商、企业客户、超级计算中心以及主权AI项目，而这个非超大规模市场的确是一个增长非常快的领域。总体可见，对于其核心增长引擎的表现，英伟达依旧充满信心。从 Agentic AI ，到物理 AI对整个AI行业来说，英伟达这份财报之所以备受关注，在于它不仅仅体现了英伟达这家企业的发展态势，也反映了人工智能时代各大科技巨头和AI创业者是否依旧在致力于AI算力基础设施的投资。以及，AI泡沫论到底是不是真的？毕竟，从资本市场的动态来看，自2026年开年以来，八家市值万亿美元的科技巨头中，已有七家股价出现下跌；其中，微软、亚马逊和特斯拉的股价均出现两位数跌幅，纳斯达克指数则下跌超过2.5%。对比来看，英伟达是唯一的例外，截至2月25日美股收盘，这家芯片制造商的股价在2026年上涨了将近5个百分点。不仅如此，对于英伟达来说，在本次财报发布前的另一个利好消息是，根据华尔街分析师们的估算，Alphabet、微软、Meta和亚马逊等几大科技巨头预计在2026年合计投入将近7000亿美元来推动其人工智能业务的扩张——这四家企业的资本支出较2025年达到的历史高位预计增长超60%。韦德布什证券分析师在周一发布的英伟达财报前瞻报告中指出：“2026年超大规模资本支出预测已超出先前预期。由于服务器和人工智能基础设施占未来支出的主要部分，我们预计人工智能投资的增长速度将略高于整体资本支出趋势。”当然，这些支出的一个重要部分，将会流向英伟达。不过，从资本市场的反馈来看，关于人工智能基础设施投资和未来发展的疑虑依旧存在，主要源于对今年超大规模资本支出见顶的恐惧。不过，英伟达这份最新财报，最起码打消了外界的一部分疑虑——那就是，对于英伟达来说，在数据中心业务的框架下，基于技术、客户需求等方面的增长点依旧是清晰可见的。不仅如此，面对当前的AI发展，黄仁勋也在财报中给出了乐观评价。他表示，算力需求正呈指数级增长，Agentic AI的拐点已经到来。采用NVLink技术的Grace Blackwell在当前推理领域持续领先，单位token成本实现了一个数量级的下降，而Vera Rubin将进一步巩固这一领先优势。黄仁勋还强调：“企业正在加速部署智能体……没有算力，就没有办法生成Token；没有Token，就没有办法增加收入；现在在云服务提供商的工具平台之上开发智能体系统的企业和独立软件开发商（ISV）数量激增——我确信，我们正处于一个关键拐点”。为此，黄仁勋还举了一个例子，无论是Cloud Code、OpenAI Codex还是Cursor，代码生成智能体的需求呈指数级增长——像Anthropic这样的公司，收入在一年内增长了10倍，但依然受限于算力瓶颈。他还强调：在当前的新世界中，推理就是收入，算力就是收入（Compute equals revenues）。很显然，在黄仁勋的AI叙事中，AgenticAI成为英伟达以及整个人工智能实现其价值的一个重大支点。不过，从长远来看，黄仁勋在 AgenticAI之外，已经看到了一个新的落地机遇。他也在财报电话会议中表示：在 AgenticAI之后，下一个爆发的拐点将是物理AI（Physical AI），我们将把人工智能带入制造业和机器人领域，这将开启一个更加庞大且激动人心的万亿级市场机会。无论如何，对于英伟达来说，在 AgenticAI支撑起当下AI叙事逻辑和价值的前提下，它已经把目光瞄准了作为未来的物理AI。某种程度上，这其实是黄仁勋早已经对外展示的一以贯之的AI叙事逻辑。只不过，这套逻辑实现的具体路径，将会在今年三月举行的GTC大会上变得更加清晰——外界对于 AI 未来发展的疑虑是否会有所打消，也将有机会从中一窥究竟。更多精彩内容，关注钛媒体微信号（ID：taimeiti），或者下载钛媒体App","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}