债券交易员不相信美联储下一步可能加息！押注降息周期延续至2027年_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

债券交易员不相信美联储下一步可能加息！押注降息周期延续至2027年

华尔街见闻02-25

美国期货和期权市场的交易员正加码押注，美联储不仅将在今年继续降息，而且降息周期可能延续至明年，而不是如之前预期那样在2027年重新加息。与担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的期货利差（该利率紧密反映市场对美联储政策路径的预期）正出现明显倒挂。这表明交易员开始为一个更长时间的宽松周期定价。直到不久前，市场仍押注美联储将在今年年底前进行两次25个基点的降息后，于2027年恢复加息。然而，围绕人工智能...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

暂无评论

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2614721863?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-02-25 07:44","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2614721863","market":"sg","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"债券交易员不相信美联储下一步可能加息！押注降息周期延续至2027年","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>美国期货和期权市场的交易员正加码押注，美联储不仅将在今年继续降息，而且降息周期可能延续至明年，而不是如之前预期那样在2027年重新加息。\n与担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的期货利差（该利率紧密反映市场对美联储政策路径的预期）正出现明显倒挂。这表明交易员开始为一个更长时间的宽松周期定价。\n直到不久前，市场仍押注美联储将在今年年底前进行两次25个基点的降息后，于2027年恢复加息。然而，围绕人工智能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766095\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>债券交易员不相信美联储下一步可能加息！押注降息周期延续至2027年</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n债券交易员不相信美联储下一步可能加息！押注降息周期延续至2027年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-25 07:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766095><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国期货和期权市场的交易员正加码押注，美联储不仅将在今年继续降息，而且降息周期可能延续至明年，而不是如之前预期那样在2027年重新加息。\n与担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的期货利差（该利率紧密反映市场对美联储政策路径的预期）正出现明显倒挂。这表明交易员开始为一个更长时间的宽松周期定价。\n直到不久前，市场仍押注美联储将在今年年底前进行两次25个基点的降息后，于2027年恢复加息。然而，围绕人工智能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766095\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPXU","symbol_name":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766095","article_id":"2614721863","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766095","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2614721863","pubTimestamp":1771976666,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"美国期货和期权市场的交易员正加码押注，美联储不仅将在今年继续降息，而且降息周期可能延续至明年。需要注意的是，直到不久前，市场仍押注美联储将在今年年底前进行两次25个基点的降息后，于2027年恢复加息。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","USTB":"VictoryShares Short-Term Bond ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"translate_title":"Bond traders don't believe the Fed may rate hike next! Bet on rate cut cycle extending into 2027","themeId":"4964f02c4aa879a408841ca20e0412d7","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c90b5b521b25831cf79b321bc199d35d","symbols_score_info":{"US30Y.BOND":2,"OEF":0.6,"SPY":1.57,".SPX":1.57,"NQmain":2,"OEX":0.6,"US2Y.BOND":2,"US10Y.BOND":2,".IXIC":2,"SPYI":0.6,".DJI":2,"US5Y.BOND":2,"US6M.BOND":2,"YMmain":2,"SH":0.6,"US3Y.BOND":2,"ESmain":2,"US7Y.BOND":2,"TIP":2,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"USTB":2,"US12M.BOND":2,"IVV":0.6,"SSO":0.6},"content_text":"美国期货和期权市场的交易员正加码押注，美联储不仅将在今年继续降息，而且降息周期可能延续至明年，而不是如之前预期那样在2027年重新加息。\n与担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的期货利差（该利率紧密反映市场对美联储政策路径的预期）正出现明显倒挂。这表明交易员开始为一个更长时间的宽松周期定价。\n直到不久前，市场仍押注美联储将在今年年底前进行两次25个基点的降息后，于2027年恢复加息。然而，围绕人工智能对劳动力市场影响的讨论日益升温，促使交易员重新评估这一预期。\n周二，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）警告称，若人工智能的广泛应用推高失业率，美联储可能无法完全对冲其带来的冲击。\nSOFR期权市场也呈现类似的鸽派信号。相关交易倾向于对冲今年多次降息的可能性，某些期权合约的未平仓合约数量显著增加，例如12月到期、行权价98.00的看涨期权。\n自上周末以来，SOFR利差的趋平走势明显加速。与此同时，人工智能“颠覆性冲击”的担忧打压了一批股票，并推动长期美国国债上涨。\nBrandywine Global Investment Management投资组合经理Jack McIntyre表示：\n\n问题在于，人工智能究竟会不会带来通胀压力，或许收益率曲线的长端已经在提前反映这一点。AI唯一可能带来通胀的方面，是数据中心建设及其相关的能源需求，而这一点是市场已知的。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}