12倍大牛股，暴跌！大空头，向闪存巨头“开炮”！_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

12倍大牛股，暴跌！大空头，向闪存巨头“开炮”！

券商中国02-25 13:25

美股超级大牛股突遭“空袭”。受华尔街“大空头”香橼（Citron Research）做空影响，美国存储芯片“大牛股”闪迪股价闪崩，在美股盘中一度暴跌超8%。香橼认为闪迪面临存储市场周期性压力、三星电子竞争加剧以及长期投资者退场等问题，市场对闪迪的定价逻辑存在根本性错误。在香橼做空前，闪迪股价持续飙涨，过去12个月累计涨幅超1200%。有分析指出，香橼的做空举动令市场对闪迪的上涨持续性产生了质疑，并...

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Big short, \"fire\" at the flash memory giant!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"SNDK":1.96,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6},"content_text":"美股超级大牛股突遭“空袭”。受华尔街“大空头”香橼（Citron Research）做空影响，美国存储芯片“大牛股”闪迪股价闪崩，在美股盘中一度暴跌超8%。香橼认为闪迪面临存储市场周期性压力、三星电子竞争加剧以及长期投资者退场等问题，市场对闪迪的定价逻辑存在根本性错误。在香橼做空前，闪迪股价持续飙涨，过去12个月累计涨幅超1200%。有分析指出，香橼的做空举动令市场对闪迪的上涨持续性产生了质疑，并引发投资者对存储芯片行业景气周期的担忧。今日A股存储芯片概念股亦全线下挫 ，普冉股份一度大跌近10%，截至午间收盘，跌幅超8%，兆易创新、江波龙、佰维存储、香农芯创等个股跌幅靠前。“大空头”突袭美东时间2月24日，香橼在社交媒体发帖称，市场对闪迪的定价逻辑存在根本性错误，当前的存储芯片供应紧张不过是“海市蜃楼”，周期顶部已近在咫尺。受此影响，闪迪股价盘中大幅跳水，一度暴跌超8%，最终收跌4.2%，报638.52美元。在香橼发布做空声明前，闪迪股价大幅飙涨，今年以来，闪迪股价已累计上涨175%，过去12个月更是上涨了超过1200%。香橼的做空逻辑主要有三个方面：三星电子的竞争威胁、闪迪长期投资者西部数据的减持信号，以及周期见顶的历史规律。在三星电子的竞争方面，香橼指出，三星电子拥有长达30年优先抢占市场份额、牺牲利润的竞争策略，待闪迪等纯存储厂商坐享高毛利时，便大幅扩产、压低售价。香橼认为，本轮威胁尤为严峻：三星近期公开表示不会以低于50%毛利率出售产品，同时将其最先进芯片导入闪迪的核心战场——高端固态硬盘（SSD）市场。香橼写道：“他们不只是产能上的大猩猩，他们正用更新、更廉价的技术直接狙击闪迪的优质客户。”香橼还援引了另一关键信号——西部数据数日前已在较当前市价低约25%的价位，出售了所持闪迪的大量股份，所得款项用于偿债。香橼认为，这一举动并非偶然，而是西部数据对存储周期即将见顶的提前判断。周期见顶逻辑方面，香橼将当前存储市场的供应紧张比作“海市蜃楼”，认为其根源在于三星另一产品线良率暂时出现瓶颈，这一瓶颈具有明确的“到期日”。香橼警告，目前已有相当于2018年峰值产能两倍的产能蓄势待发，一旦投入市场，供需格局可能“一次财报电话会议”就会彻底逆转。香橼还将闪迪与英伟达进行类比：“市场把闪迪当英伟达来定价，但有一个问题：英伟达有护城河，闪迪是卖大宗商品。”受此影响，在散户平台Stocktwits上，过去24小时内闪迪相关情绪已转入“看空”区间。有用户发文称，香橼的做空报告方向正确，但时机可能早了约两年。他指出，目前，三星电子在为英伟达产品配套高带宽存储芯片（HBM）上的获利已超过NAND闪存业务，两家公司“走的方向不同”。市场分歧的核心：周期性此次做空对闪迪的股东而言可谓暴击，闪迪股价此前大涨的主要动力是，NAND行业正借助AI带来强劲需求，摆脱周期性波动风险。目前，内存市场仍面临着严重的供应短缺压力。Counterpoint Research研究公司称，2025年第四季度DRAM价格大幅上涨了40%至50%。TrendForce 研究公司则警告称，内存产品价格未来上涨50%或更多的情况将成为基本预期。但需要指出的是，内存市场属于周期性行业，时而供应短缺，时而供过于求——正如香橼所言，这一周期性变动在2008年、2012年和2018年都上演过类似戏码。闪迪高管们在日前召开的财报电话会上表示，在AI的推动下，NAND市场正经历结构性变革，这种结构性变革具有可持续性，将降低NAND业务的周期性，创造更高的长期平均利润率和回报率。闪迪CEO大卫·格克勒表示，AI给存储市场需求带来了巨大变化，预计到2026年，数据中心EB级存储需求将增长60%以上。供应紧张的局面预计将持续到2026年以后，这将支撑其定价权。正是这一表态，令不少华尔街投资者押注，AI带来的长期刚性需求，叠加闪迪签下的多年期供应协议，将降低NAND行业传统的周期性波动，令该行业将向更具稳定性、高回报率的结构转型。而闪迪也正是在这一厚望下水涨船高。但如今，香橼的高调做空，可能戳破了部分投资者对于NAND行业的前景期待。值得一提的是，在香橼宣布做空后不久，闪迪公司举办了一场线上活动，庆祝其从西部数据分拆出来一周年。闪迪还发布了新一代便携式固态硬盘产品组合，并发布了一段视频，旨在强调人们可以利用额外的数字存储空间做哪些事情。目前，投资者的目光都转向了闪迪公司的高管们的公开言论。闪迪公司高管计划于当地时间2月25日在伯恩斯坦“科技未来趋势”论坛上登台演讲，随后将于3月3日参加摩根士丹利的科技、媒体与电信大会。责编：林根排版：王璐璐校对：王朝全","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}