投资策略专题：节后市场展望-投资策略专题_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

投资策略专题：节后市场展望-投资策略专题

开源证券股份有...02-22 00:00

节后行情规律：中小盘占优，科技周期占优复盘春节后市场规律，节后5 个、10 个、20 个交易日内，市场上涨概率逐步提升，大盘日渐回暖；风格上，呈现“中小盘优于大盘，成长占优”的特征，市场以追求超额为目的，中证2000 涨幅和上涨概率均相对较高；行业上，科技与周期板块相对占优，节后二十个交易日内，计算机、通信、环保、有色金属、钢铁、纺织服饰涨幅靠前，食品饮料、银行、家用电器、非银金融、石油石化相对靠...

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股方面，科技板块估值压力已导致资金出现科技内部高低切，向“低位、有基本面反转、自主可控逻辑”的细分赛道挖掘。海外方面，美股科技板块内部出现分化现象：英伟达高位横盘，AI 吞噬软件担忧下软件股出现大幅调整。短期，市场或关注英伟达与博通即将公布的财报，以及三月即将召开的GTC 大会。国内方面，春节港股科技板块内部亦出现分化现象：智谱和MiniMax 涨势迅猛，然而腾讯、百度等互联网巨头却出现回调。然而，科技春晚彰显政策对科技推广的信心，春晚后机器人订单大幅增加。投资建议——重提“坚定牛市信心，降低斜率预期”A 股当下处在牛市逻辑当中，我们建议投资者不要因为非常短期的波动和调整就动摇对积极行情的信心。本轮牛市的核心驱动力没有显著收紧和转向前维持看多，仍建议以证券化率达到1.1 倍以上为信号。结构上，当前全A 尚处在相对安全的环境下，且证券化率指标角度来看仍有扩张空间，结合TMT 板块的相对盈利优势，AI+的高beta 现阶段依然有望获得支撑。行业配置建议：（1）科技内部的修复和高低切：军工、传媒（游戏）、AI 应用、港股互联网、电池、核心AI 硬件；（2）PPI 改善加广谱反内卷受益：有色、化工、光伏、钢铁、电力、机械、保险；（3）中长期底仓：黄金、优化的高股息。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}