抖省省突袭、美团“守成”、阿里在“重构”，谁会在万亿即时零售中出局？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

抖省省突袭、美团“守成”、阿里在“重构”，谁会在万亿即时零售中出局？

锐艺商业品牌观察02-12

传统电商见顶，即时零售的战场早已经打响，当阿里在用“钞能力”碾压美团时，突然杀出个字节的“抖省省”！一场改写零售格局的战役正在激烈上演。商务部研究院预测，2026年我国即时零售规模将突破1万亿元，2030年达到2万亿元。在这个万亿赛道中，三大玩家以截然不同的策略展开角逐：字节跳动的“抖省省”以“全网最低价”凶悍突袭，美团全力守护其本地生活霸主地位，阿里巴巴则通过整合淘天、饿了么、飞猪进行生态重构。...

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Who will be out of the trillion-dollar instant retail?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.94,"BABW":0.6,"03690":1.92,"BBYY":0.6,"MPNGY":1.92,"KBAB":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABX":0.6,"09988":1.94},"content_text":"传统电商见顶，即时零售的战场早已经打响，当阿里在用“钞能力”碾压美团时，突然杀出个字节的“抖省省”！一场改写零售格局的战役正在激烈上演。商务部研究院预测，2026年我国即时零售规模将突破1万亿元，2030年达到2万亿元。在这个万亿赛道中，三大玩家以截然不同的策略展开角逐：字节跳动的“抖省省”以“全网最低价”凶悍突袭，美团全力守护其本地生活霸主地位，阿里巴巴则通过整合淘天、饿了么、飞猪进行生态重构。究竟鹿死谁手呢？01 .抖省省突袭字节跳动的“抖省省”以极具攻击性的姿态闯入即时零售战场。其战略简单直接：模仿拼多多，以“低价”为核心战略，以算法和AI为技术工具，猛攻到店餐饮、超市零售等多个领域。抖省省采用“内容种草（抖音主站）+交易转化（抖省省）”的双平台协同模式。一些消费者反馈，抖省省的价格确实令人吃惊，几乎是奔着“全网最低”去的，现阶段明显没有把盈利放在首位。抖省省的优势在于其巨大的流量优势和内容生态。凭借抖音主站的6亿日活用户，抖省省可以以较低成本引流，实现流量变现的最大化。这种低价闪电战在短期内确实取得了显著效果。然而，其可持续性面临严峻挑战。轻资产模式在履约环节存在天然短板，尤其是即时零售对配送时效有极高要求。同时，持续的低价补贴不仅挤压了商家利润，也可能引发服务质量问题。有商家指出，“水果和手机这类标品是不同的，水果每周甚至每天的价格都可能有波动。如果平台采用一刀切的玩法，会对成本价格频繁变化的品类而言会很难。”02 .美团“守成”面对抖省省的突袭和阿里的进攻，美团的策略是“巩固核心，深度融合”。美团拥有业内最成熟的本地生活服务网络，其核心壁垒在于双边网络效应。美团通过最高频的外卖场景拉来海量用户，形成订单密度摊薄履约成本、提升配送时效。这个飞轮看起来简单，但有着非常多的细节环环相扣。2025年4月，美团将分散多年的近场零售业务统一品牌为“美团闪购”，强化全品类心智。美团的核心优势在于其履约效率领先，平均28分钟送达，覆盖全国2800个县市。面对多线压力，美团正全力加固其最深的护城河，即打通“到家”外卖与“到店”团购业务，形成协同防御。一个标志性举措是升级“神会员”体系，将高频的外卖用户无缝引导至利润更丰厚的到店消费。美团也在主动开辟新战线，例如重启“小象超市”大店模式并推出“快乐猴”硬折扣超市，探索线下零售与即时配送结合的新模式。03 .阿里“重构”阿里在即时零售领域的布局看似沉默，实则在下一盘更大的棋。2025年6月，阿里巴巴CEO吴泳铭发布全员信，正式宣布饿了么与飞猪合并入淘天集团，形成以淘天为核心的大消费体系。阿里重构的核心是打通“人、货、场”的数据壁垒，实现从远场电商（淘宝天猫）到近场生活（即时零售、到店）的无缝流转。阿里已形成清晰的双线作战结构：线上，由饿了么和淘宝闪购主导“到家”即时零售；线下，则由高德“扫街榜”和专注酒旅的“飞猪”负责“到店”业务引流与转化。2026年春节，淘宝闪购投入20亿元，年货销量同比增长超347%，三四线城市年货订单同比增长超580%。阿里核心管理层在2026年初的一次内部会议上鼓励团队要继续大胆做闪购，并明确表示“三年内不要有（亏损的）负担”。在资金层面，阿里展现出远超竞争对手的抗风险能力。截至2025年季度末，阿里手握5700多亿元的流动资金，这一数字远超行业内其他玩家。阿里的AI布局也是其重构战略的重要组成部分。2026年1月，千问App宣布全面接入淘宝、支付宝、闪购、飞猪等阿里生态业务，率先实现AI购物功能。04 .谁会被淘汰出局？即时零售的竞争已从初期的“抢骑手、争代言”升级为生态协同能力的较量。在这场万亿赛道的长跑中，短期补贴优势难以成为决定性因素。抖省省虽然凭借低价策略快速获取市场份额，但其缺乏履约基础设施的短板明显。此前抖音试水外卖不太成功的原因就在于一直未能解决配送问题。若不能尽快补齐这一短板，抖省省可能难以在即时零售的持久战中坚持到底。美团拥有最强大的履约网络和用户习惯，但其面临的多线作战压力巨大。美团需要同时防御抖省省的低价突袭和阿里的生态进攻，三线作战对美团的资源分配和战略聚焦构成挑战。阿里拥有最完整的生态布局和资金优势，但其内部协同效率是关键变量。阿里需要将高德、淘天、饿了么、飞猪等业务真正打通，形成协同效应，才能发挥其生态优势。其实单纯补贴不可持续，未来竞争将转向履约成本的优化、生态协同的效率、商品服务的丰富度与可靠性等深层能力。即时零售的终局也可能不是一家独大，而是差异化共存。抖省省可能在某些品类和场景中占据一席之地，美团可能继续保持其在核心领域的优势，阿里则可能通过生态协同实现后来居上。那么，你更看好谁呢？","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}