好吧，再说说对美团的看法，对外卖大战的看法_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

好吧，再说说对美团的看法，对外卖大战的看法

商业迷02-12 21:10

标题上，大家也看得出我的无奈哈。昨天回来大概粗看了下晚点的文章，今天刚刚又重新仔细读了一遍。先说说我的态度吧，今天84.6 港币买了一丢丢美团，最后一点现金。再说战况，晚点文章中的内容是否保真不知道，但大体感觉还是靠谱的。之前 9 月两平台都说减少投入，现在看，敢情都是说给监管听的。晚点说，淘宝在华南地区，因为气候温暖，骑手好招，淘闪已经在时效上追上美团，甚至反超，之前是每单慢个 3-5 分钟，在...

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月两平台都说减少投入，现在看，敢情都是说给监管听的。晚点说，淘宝在华南地区，因为气候温暖，骑手好招，淘闪已经在时效上追上美团，甚至反超，之前是每单慢个 3-5 分钟，在北方，因为天气的原因，美团长期的骑手站点建设，在运力上占优势，淘宝还处于劣势。在一般性的商品即时零售上，重点是仓的供给和商品的供给，这个美团还处于绝对优势。网上有种说法是淘宝只是嘴巴很硬，但是绝对的补贴力度其实在逐月减少，晚点的报道，很多是企业给内部打气的话，需要辩证性的听。这个观点，我之前文章也提过几次，即阿里喜欢在大战的时候，把声势造的很大，以吸引各种资源 ，包括商家资源和骑手资源向自己集中，但是不一定是事实。我也不知道具体情况，个人投资者，只能看看新闻，看看公开报道来做一些分析和判断，想要在信息上做到有优势不太容易，个人投资者也基本应该放弃在信息上占优势的念头，就是应该打明牌，就根据公开信息，根据自己对投资、对商业的认知来做判断，而不是企图做到占据信息优势来做决策，加深商业认知，而不是到处打听消息。这么几年对美团的跟踪，美团在餐饮行业其实做了很多的布局，都是做深护城河，做深行业壁垒的一种做法，在外卖，在前置仓，在闪电仓等等，包括最近并购叮咚买菜，其实一直都是在抬升门槛。还有做无人机，做超脑算法，做餐饮 saas，做快驴等等，是苦生意没错，但是我还是认为壁垒挺高的。就像那文章里说的，外卖进入门槛低，运营门槛很高，美团一直是打持久战，打游击战，在对手补贴势头最凶的时候，会避其锋芒，等你一懈怠，又卷土重来，战术方法是一方面，企业文化也要契合，感觉阿里一直是养尊处优的，没有养成节省和抠门的企业文化，长期能不能做苦生意，还是要打个问号。现在美团在 30 元以上的高客单价的外卖单上，还是占据更大的优势，淘宝之前来尝试攻这块，发现难度很大，高客单价的客户对价格战不敏感，但是对时效和稳定配送非常敏感。这可能也是美团请周杰伦代言并推出一对一急送的原因，并且美团在淘宝补贴最猛的时候，放弃低价单的补贴，只补贴高客单价客户，这都是为了稳住最核心的盘子。现在淘宝加大补贴，还是想要撬动高客单价客户，拭目以待吧。淘宝的优势是主站推起来，流量高多了，然后做一般商品的即时零售，心智上很搭，在淘宝上商品页给出闪购的配送选项，确实协同效应好。都说美团的商业模式比电商差，前几年，其实说法是外卖竞争格局比电商好 ，因为当时美团一家独大，现在声音也反过来了。我感觉这是阿里对外卖的最后一战，前面养饿了么养了这么多年，后面也绝望了，据说找过几家报价，但是给的价格实在太低，甚至低到有点带羞辱性了，这市场给出了即时零售的增量，阿里再押注一把。既然要押注，当然要拿出全部的势能，否则真是要割肉，像卖大润发一样卖掉了。今天美团再跌 4.5%，市值 663 亿美元，这个价都不值吗？账上大概有 200 亿美金，才收购叮咚花 10 亿美金，之前收购摩拜单车记得花了 30亿美金左右，我的意思是算算做这些业务投入的钱，都不少啊。最最糟糕，淘宝和美团平分外卖市场，这是我的看法，不构成投资建议。在最低点的时候，我喜欢算财务账来提供踏实感。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}