食品饮料行业周报：茅台景气领先大众品继续推荐顺周期_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

食品饮料行业周报：茅台景气领先大众品继续推荐顺周期

招商证券02-09

本周我们继续调研江苏等地渠道，综合两周调研结果来看，行业整体动销双位数下滑符合预期，茅台表现延续强势，禁酒令后部分需求回补、非标缺货带来的需求转移、i 茅台促进大众需求转化带动飞天量增超预期。部分经销商自愿申报3 月首批飞天配额售罄，惠群也暂停3 月前的销售，这也印证了公司渠道的“全面开花”，而并非仅i 茅台火爆，批价近期冲高至1700 元。五粮液动销延续分化，江苏地区大商走货有减少、专卖店反馈...

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股）（餐饮边际改善估值折价收敛）；颐海国际（业绩好于预期+关联方变化积极）；千禾味业（业绩修复弹性高）；华润啤酒（龙头优势明显，高端化稳健推进）；2）原奶周期拐点，关注伊利股份、蒙牛乳业。3）估值与业绩匹配度较高，关注卫龙美味（魔芋品类增长，成本下行增厚利润）；安琪酵母（成本下降带动业绩释放）；中宠股份、乖宝宠物（出口影响消退）。4）底部布局业绩反转华润饮料（包装水格局改善+新管理层）；IFBH（行业成长红利+业绩修复）；洽洽食品（原材料价格回落）。风险提示：经济环境扰动，需求不及预期，成本上涨，竞争加剧等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}