智通决策参考︱地产的稳定对市场影响较大_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

智通决策参考︱地产的稳定对市场影响较大

智通财经02-09

【主编观市】上周形势确实不妙，黄金加上比特币等均走弱，科技股也遭受质疑。恒指跌破27000点退守60日线。本周市场会持续聚焦中东局势，如果美国动手，预计伊朗会打击美国在中东地区的军事基地，这将把整个地区拖入战争。最新日本众议院选举投票已经出结果，执政联盟超过半数，高市早苗继续执政，静观后续发展。重磅数据美国非农、通胀报告本周扎堆发布；国内1月社融与通胀数据亦将出炉。节前最后一周如不出大的突发或平稳...

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DeepSeek、Grok等新模型蓄势待发。Ai方向主要选应用端不会被颠覆的。【本周金股】泡泡玛特(09992)2025年末全球注册会员数字超过1亿(24年末国内注册会员数4600万,25H1末6000万左右，海外数量较少)。目前全球门店超700家。乐园客流量超预期，同比2024年增长77%；其中非亲子家庭游客占比59%，非本地游客占比58%，潜在游客群体超预期。朝阳公园乐园二期规划中。国海证券推测，labubu销售超过1亿只，labubu以毛绒品类为主，毛绒国内99/元，海外最高约200元/28美金；盲盒手办定价在国内69+元，海外最高在140+元/20美金，因为包含其他品类，以假设均价130元推测，全年销售超130亿元；全品类全IP销售超过4亿只，以假设单价100元推算(毛绒均价应该超100元，其他品类稍低)，全年收入400亿(以毛估35%利润率计算，140亿左右利润)。国海证券预计，25年毛利率会较24年明显提升，约在70%-75%左右(25H1为70%)；供应链端节省3.4亿元。【产业观察】2026年开年，重点城市二手房市场延续“以价换量”特征。根据中指研究院数据，1月20城二手住宅共成交11.8万套，环比微降3.1%，同比增长15.3%，市场整体交易保持一定活跃度。同时，自去年四季度以来，主要城市二手房新增挂牌与存量挂牌规模已有所减少，业主议价空间略有收窄，反映出短期供应压力有所缓解，市场预期也出现一定改善。上海于近期推出楼市新政，启动收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作。2月2日，上海第一批收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房项目正式签约，浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区率先试点，中国建设银行为其提供金融支持。申万宏源认为，我国房地产基本面底部正逐步临近。一方面，我国拿地和新开工自2021年以来已下降75%，新开工已显著超过美国、日本和德国降幅50%-70%，我国二手房房价自21年以来已下降40%，也已显著超过42国平均跌幅34%；另一方面，目前”止跌回稳”和“稳妥化解风险”的目标仍需要进一步政策支持，近期国央企公告业绩大幅下降或亏损，这不符合政策导向，或将意味着政策面拐点也将到来。1月2日《求是》明确房地产金融属性、强调居民资产负债表、重申房地产经济重要地位、并建议政策一次性给足，对房地产行业表态发生显著变化，政策进一步居民端、需求端转向的信号。此外，《求是》1月15日-1月25日连续14篇关于城市更新发表文章，市场预计今年城市更新可能重新成为重要抓手，同时也是房地产经济重要地位的体现。港股重点关注贝壳(02423)、华润置地(01109)、中国金茂(00817)、龙湖(00960)等。【数据看盘】港交所公布数据显示，恒生期指(二月)未平仓合约总数为116413张，未平仓净数47742张。恒生期指结算日2026年2月26号。恒生指数在26560点位置，下方牛证密集区靠近中轴，恒生指数有下跌意愿。年报逐步公布期，港股周一或跟随美股上周五大涨高开，但整体上港股仍缺少龙头板块推动指数，恒生指数本周看跌。【主编感言】最近市场出现明显的高低切特征。这里面有贵金属大幅调整的影响，也有AI产业美国那边AI吞噬软件的担忧，很多投资经理认为上半年是先继续炒AI炒科技，到了下半年开始转向内需，这个观点是非常一致的。但是市场演绎的都会比较提前，所以在科技走了一波行情之后，市场就开始提前去做这种高低切换，向内需方向做切换。未来这两个方向大概率会不断轮动。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}