谷歌的AI野心藏在资本开支预算里_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

谷歌的AI野心藏在资本开支预算里

港股解码02-05

市值超四万亿美元的谷歌（GOOG.US）于2025年第4季实现了创纪录的营收，云业务利润率加速扩张，经营现金流和自由现金流大幅增长。管理层表示，AI驱动的效率和使用率上升正在推动单位经济效益的提升，Gemini模型使用量和客户履约合同均创新高。新宣布的与苹果（AAPL.US）和Reliance Jio的合作进一步扩展了Gemini的技术和商业影响力，资本支出指引表明技术基础设施将持续扩展。谷歌（...

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Jio的合作进一步扩展了Gemini的技术和商业影响力，资本支出指引表明技术基础设施将持续扩展。谷歌（GOOGL.US）2025年第4季收入同比增长17.99%，至1,138.28亿美元，高于市场预期的1,114.3亿美元，但是经营利润率却按年下降0.54个百分点，至31.57%，主要受到Waymo因估值上升，而确认21亿美元员工薪酬支出影响。季度净利润率按年提升2.76个百分点，至30.27%，净利润按年增长29.84%，至344.55亿美元，每股摊薄后盈利为2.82美元，按年增长31.16%，高于市场预期的2.63美元。云业务再创纪录2025年第4季，谷歌搜索及其他广告营收增长16.73%，至630.73亿美元，所有主要垂直领域均保持增长，其中零售贡献最大。YouTube广告营收增长8.69%，至113.83亿美元，由直接响应广告驱动，增幅有所减缓，管理层解释是因为受到了与2024年美国大选相关的强劲支出的同比基数效应影响。同理，网络广告营收78.28亿美元，下降1.58%。订阅、平台和设备季度营收同比增长16.72%，至135.78亿美元，得益于YouTube订阅的强劲增长，特别是YouTube Music和Premium，以及Google One因AI方案需求增加而增长。包括搜索、广告、YouTube、网络会员等在内的谷歌服务分部营业利润增长22.22%，至401.32亿美元，营业利润率为41.86%，按年提升2.82个百分点。表现最耀眼的还要数谷歌云。谷歌云部门在第4季取得了出色业绩，因为该业务继续受益于对企业AI产品的强劲需求，云营收显著加速，增长47.75%，至176.64亿美元。营收增长由谷歌云平台（GCP）的强劲表现驱动，GCP的增长率继续远高于云业务的整体营收增长率。由于新客户获取率大幅增长、签署更大额客户承诺强劲上升以及增加现有客户支，业绩得到显著推动。GCP的业绩由企业AI产品的加速增长驱动，这些产品正在产生数十亿美元的季度营收。谷歌CEO表示，通过模型优化、效率和利用率的提升，到2025年底，Gemini服务单位成本降低了78%，Gemini App的月活跃用户数已超过7.5亿，我们留意到，OpenAI的周活跃用户数或超8亿，同时谷歌表示，其已售出800万个Gemini Enterprise付费席位，而我们注意到，OpenAI有超100万家企业付费使用其企业级AI产品（持续付费）。谷歌在企业AI基础设施和企业AI解决方案方面均实现强劲增长。企业AI基础设施的增长由TPU和GPU的部署驱动，企业AI解决方案则受益于对行业领先模型的需求，包括Gemini 3。核心GCP由于对基础设施和其他服务（如网络安全和数据分析）的强劲需求，也为增长做出了重要贡献。Workspace也实现了两位数的增长，由平均每席位收入和席位数量增加驱动。云营业利润大幅增长153.85%，至53.13亿美元，营业利润率从上年同期的17.51%进一步上升至30.08%。管理层透露，其谷歌云待履约合同额环比增长55%，同比增长一倍以上，在第4季末达到2400亿美元。待履约合同额的增长是由多个客户对其云产品（主要为企业AI产品）的强劲需求驱动的。其他投资业务方面，分部营收为3.70亿美元，营业亏损为36.17亿美元，反映包括前文提到的21亿美元Waymo费用。Waymo于2月初宣布了160亿美元的投资融资，Alphabet提供了相当大一部分资金，这将使该业务能够加速其全球扩张。Waymo最近在第六个市场迈阿密推出服务，未来将继续扩展到美国的多个城市，以及英国和日本。资本开支再加码，博通得益谷歌于第4季创造了创纪录的经营现金流524.02亿美元，全年达1,647.13亿美元，这转化为第4季245.51亿美元和全年732.66亿美元的自由现金流。该公司于第4季进行了55亿美元的回购和25亿美元的股息支付。其2025年第4季资本开支为278.51亿美元，较上年同期高出95.09%，全年资本开支为914.47亿美元，按年上升74.07%，符合其预期。管理层透露，绝大部分的资本支出投资于技术基础设施，其中约60%投资于服务器，40%投资于数据中心和网络设备。值得留意的是，谷歌将2026年全年的资本开支预算进一步提升至1,750亿至1,850亿美元之间，较2025年全年资本开支预算高出91.37%以上，投资将在年内逐步增加。谷歌表示正在投资AI计算能力，以支持Google DeepMind的前沿模型开发、谷歌服务中改善用户体验和提高广告商投资回报率的持续努力、大量的云客户需求，以及对其他押注的战略投资。CEO预计全年仍将面临（AI算力）供应受限的局面。鉴于近年来资本支出投资的增加，该公司预计2026年第1季的折旧增长率将加速，全年折旧将显著增加。其还计划继续在AI和云等关键投资领域进行招聘。有意思的是，受此消息带动，当日股价虽AI芯片股下挫3.83%的博通（AVGO.US），在盘后交易时段猛拉6.22%。与同行使用英伟达（NVDA.US）构建算力不大相同，谷歌的AI软件运行在其自研的张量处理器（TPU）上，例如谷歌最先进的Gemini 3模型就是通过TPU训练的，而专长是打造定制芯片（ASIC）的博通则帮助谷歌制造其自研的TPU。一个多月前，有消息指OpenAI的竞争对手Anthropic将直接向博通采购由谷歌设计，再由博通以TPU Ironwood机架系统形式交付的100万颗TPU芯片，最近Anthropic推出AI法律助理，掀起了AI助理替代应用软件的担忧，引发全球软件股大跌，也反映出未来Anthropic的算力需求增长将十分可观。当然，谷歌也有使用英伟达的芯片，英伟达股价在谷歌公布业绩后的盘后交易时段也反弹1.98%。作者：毛婷","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}