“AI替代恐慌”愈演愈烈！全球软件股跌势难止小摩直言：行业已至“未审先判”境地_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

“AI替代恐慌”愈演愈烈！全球软件股跌势难止小摩直言：行业已至“未审先判”境地

智通财经02-04

智通财经APP获悉，一场由人工智能(AI)技术进步引发的市场恐慌正在全球蔓延，软件板块首当其冲，并且这一跌势在周三似乎仍无缓和迹象。摩根大通对此表示，投资者对该板块的悲观情绪正持续发酵。摩根大通分析师Toby Ogg直言：“当前环境对软件板块而言，已不仅是‘有罪推定’，更是升级到了‘未审先判’的地步。”过去两周，Ogg与欧美地区逾50位投资者展开交流，其发现，在过去12至18个月里，这些投资者已...

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Ogg直言：“当前环境对软件板块而言，已不仅是‘有罪推定’，更是升级到了‘未审先判’的地步。”过去两周，Ogg与欧美地区逾50位投资者展开交流，其发现，在过去12至18个月里，这些投资者已...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1401724.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BDRTCR15.USD","symbol_name":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC 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JPMorgan bluntly said: The industry has reached a situation of \"judgment before trial\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"VGT":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，一场由人工智能(AI)技术进步引发的市场恐慌正在全球蔓延，软件板块首当其冲，并且这一跌势在周三似乎仍无缓和迹象。摩根大通对此表示，投资者对该板块的悲观情绪正持续发酵。摩根大通分析师Toby Ogg直言：“当前环境对软件板块而言，已不仅是‘有罪推定’，更是升级到了‘未审先判’的地步。”过去两周，Ogg与欧美地区逾50位投资者展开交流，其发现，在过去12至18个月里，这些投资者已大幅减持软件股。他在一份客户报告中指出，即便经历了本轮回调，市场对软件股的抄底意愿依然普遍低迷。此番表态源于周二软件、金融服务及资产管理板块的集体暴跌——AI初创企业Anthropic发布新款AI自动化工具引发市场竞争担忧，投资者日益忧虑生成式AI的技术突破将威胁众多企业的生存空间。据统计，周二当天，高盛追踪的一篮子美国软件股暴跌6%，创下今年4月关税引发抛售以来的最大单日跌幅，金融服务类指数大跌近7%，纳斯达克100指数盘中最大跌幅达2.4%，最终收跌1.6%，当日全球相关板块合计蒸发市值约2850亿美元。抛售潮在周三迅速蔓延至亚洲市场，欧洲市场的跌势则仍在持续：瑞银集团编制的一组面临AI颠覆风险的欧洲企业指数，在周二暴跌8%后，周三再跌2.1%，SAP(SAP.US)、赛捷集团等软件巨头股价持续走低。事实上，软件行业的AI恐慌已酝酿数月。今年1月Anthropic推出Claude Cowork工具时，就曾加剧投资者对行业颠覆的担忧；上周，谷歌(GOOGL.US)推出可通过文本或图像生成沉浸式世界的Project Genie，进一步拖累游戏股加入下跌行列。截至目前，标普北美软件指数已连续三周下跌，1月累计跌幅达15%，创下2008年10月以来的最大月度跌幅；iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF已连续六个交易日下跌，1月同样暴跌15%，为2008年以来最差月度表现。Ogg在报告中写道，对于软件企业而言，“业绩超预期已不再是打动市场的筹码”。除非企业能“无可辩驳地证明，AI对其增长而言，是可持续的助推力，而非长期的发展阻力”。美股当前财报季迄今为止，标普500指数中仅67%的软件公司营收超出预期，远低于科技板块整体83%的超预期比例。即便是微软(MSFT.US)这样的巨头，上周发布稳健财报后，仍因云业务增长放缓及AI投入引发关注，股价单日暴跌10%，1月成为其十多年来表现最差的一个月。他表示，软件企业想要打破这一困局并非易事，因为投资者的担忧涉及多个层面。其中，按用户数收费的席位定价模式首当其冲——AI工具的应用会减少客户完成工作所需的账号登录数量，这将直接冲击软件企业的这一核心定价模式。此外，若软件企业自研AI工具进行产品迭代，其现有的营收模式将面临转型风险。Ogg还称，头部AI平台的任何新产品发布，比如Anthropic此次推出的法律领域AI工具，都会进一步加剧投资者对软件板块的担忧情绪。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}