电子行业研究周报：台积电资本开支增加代工及封测涨价预期提升_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

电子行业研究周报：台积电资本开支增加代工及封测涨价预期提升

申港证券股份有...01-23

投资摘要：每周一谈：台积电资本开支增加代工及封测涨价预期提升台积电2026 年资本开支显著增加，需求景气、产能缩减等推动上游代工及封装涨价。根据台积电法人说明会和华尔街见闻，受领先工艺技术的强劲需求支撑，25Q4 公司营收337.3 亿美元，同比/环比分别增长25.5%/1.9%，营业毛利率环比增加2.8 个百分点，均超出此前指引上限。2026 年资本支出预计在520-560 亿美元之间，较...

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年间的复合增长率将接近55%左右，超出台积电预计的公司整体长期美元营收接近25%的年复合增长率。公司预计2026 年晶圆代工产业整体将同比增长14%。公司先进制程及封装扩产预计将提振行业需求，带动AI 芯片和封装测试、设备等产业链环节景气度提升。代工涨价预期提升，AI、存储和工业等领域需求带动产能利用率提高。根据半导体产业纵横援引群智咨询数据，25Q4 全球主流晶圆厂平均产能利用率已回升至90%，同比提升约 7 个百分点。该修复节奏超市场预期，核心来自AI 应用爆发带动电源管理芯片、模拟芯片等订单量激增，以及车载、工控等下游领域的需求回暖对产能的消化。另外，TrendForce 集邦咨询预期显示，因台积电、三星逐步减产八英寸，2025 年全球八英寸产能将因此年减约0.3%，2026年中芯国际、世界先进等扩产仍不抵它们减产的幅度，预估产能年减程度将扩大至2.4%。根据半导体产业纵横，市场预计 2026 年将迎来一轮晶圆代工价格普涨行情，12 英寸方面，7nm 及以下制程的主要代工公司台积电预计2026 年先进制程涨幅将达3%至10%，中芯国际涨价通知明确对8 英寸BCD 工艺代工提价约10%。另外，存储涨价预期上调，需求增长将直接带动存储代工产能紧张。我们认为，产能利用率提升、代工涨价预期下，国产代工企业中芯国际、华虹公司有望持续受益。存储涨价需求提升传导至上游封测领域，AI 需求、存储或带动封测涨价。根据芯智讯援引台媒《经济日报》报道，受益于DRAM 与NAND Flash 大厂冲刺出货，力成、华东、南茂等存储器封测厂产能利用率逼近满产，近期陆续调升封测价格，涨幅最高达30%，且后续不排除第二波涨价。先进封装和存储相关封装环节有望受益需求提升带来的价格上涨，国产封测和设备环节有望受益。投资策略：产能利用率提升、代工涨价预期下，国产代工企业中芯国际、华虹公司有望持续受益。建议关注存储和先进逻辑扩产对国内半导体前道和键合设备的拉动，以及HBM 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