台积电2025Q4营收同比增长，DRAM价格持续上涨_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

台积电2025Q4营收同比增长，DRAM价格持续上涨

中国能源网01-22

爱建证券近日发布数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态势，总和达996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支均显放缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三季度业绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降...

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rise","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"TSM":1.91},"content_text":"爱建证券近日发布数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态势，总和达996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支均显放缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三季度业绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降24.05%、环比降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。以下为研究报告摘要：投资要点：数据中心已成为电力设备行业核心增量应用场景，其发展趋势直接驱动电力设备需求增长与技术迭代。然而，数据中心行业具有资本开支规模大、投资回报周期长、技术迭代速度快的特点，若仅依赖数据中心自身维度指标，难以精准把握供配电设备需求的拐点与强度。因此，需引入AI行业多维度指标，通过其前瞻性判断为数据中心供配电设备赛道投资决策提供支撑。具体从三方面构建指标体系：1)需求端：数据中心行业景气度由下游资本开支直接驱动并向上游传导，头部云厂商资本开支作为需求最直接的“风向标”，可直观反映供配电设备短期需求潜力；2)供应链端：数据中心投资节奏受制于GPU供给，跟踪供应链关键节点数据，可前瞻判断GPU供给能力，同步验证数据中心需求落地进度；3)ai应用端：应用层发展情况直接关系到数据中心资本开支周期的强度与延续性，可有效判断资本开支周期是否具备延长基础，进而为供配电设备长期需求趋势提供依据。需求端：资本开支延续高增态势。1)海外：2025年三季度海外大厂资本开支延续高增态势，总和达996.17亿美元，同比增80.39%，环比升9.54%。2)国内：2025年第三季度阿里、腾讯资本开支均显放缓。2025年第三季度，阿里资本开支315亿元，同比增80.10%但环比降18.55%。公司在2025年三季度业绩会上重申三年3800亿元投资框架，不排除进一步增投。腾讯资本开支130亿元，同比降24.05%、环比降32.05%，下调全年指引，开支低于年初预期。供应链：英伟达、台积电营收保持增长。1)英伟达：2025年第三季度，英伟达总营收570.06亿美元，其中数据中心产品营业收入达512.15亿美元，创历史峰值，环比增长24.62%、同比增长66.44%，占总营收比重超89%。2)台积电：2025年12月营收为3350.03亿新台币，同比增长20.4%、环比下滑2.5%，创历年同期新高。2025年全年台积电营收3.8万亿新台币，同比增长31.6%。3)价格：2025年11月CPU价格指数99.04，较10月98.20小幅回升；DRAM现货价自2025年11月17日27.14美元涨至2026年1月16日66.50美元，两月内涨幅超145%，印证服务器需求旺盛。应用端：模型数量稳步增长，应用落地增多。1)调用量：2026年1月5日-1月12日Token调用量为7.65T，环比增加18.97%。2)价格：2025年第三季度，随着Grok4Fast、GPT-5nano和gpt-oss-20B的发布，ArtificialAnalysis智能指数上得分超过40分的模型Tokens价格下降超50%。投资建议：AIDC建设推动HVDC和SST需求增长：数据中心是AI发展的核心基础设施，2024年全球数据中心新增装机量约14GW，主要云厂商资本开支较高，台积电2026年资本开支预计达到520-560亿美元，同比增长约30%，数据中心建设规模预计保持高速增长；在数据中心单机柜功率密度提升背景下，其能耗和功率问题有望促使HVDC和SST渗透率提升，智能母线有望得到广泛应用；推荐：中恒电气(002364.SZ)、欧陆通(300870.SZ)、威腾电气(688226.SH)、阳光电源(300274.SZ)；建议关注：科华数据(002335.SZ)、科士达(002518.SZ)、科陆电子(002121.SZ)、麦格米特(002851.SZ)、金盘科技(688676.SH)、四方股份(601126.SH)。风险提示：云厂商资本开支不及预期/节奏波动；ai应用落地不及预期；原材料与贸易政策风险。(爱建证券朱攀,陆嘉怡)","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}