物流三国时代启幕：“顺丰+极兔”，能对抗通达系+菜鸟和京东系吗？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

物流三国时代启幕：“顺丰+极兔”，能对抗通达系+菜鸟和京东系吗？

蓝鲸财经01-21

文｜去消费2026 年成了中国物流行业格局真正洗牌的起点。之前几年，虽然也有并购整合，但整体还是“春秋混战”的感觉，顺丰、极兔、京东物流这些巨头各占一摊，在不同领域维持着相对平衡的局面。可到了2026年初，两件大事彻底打破了这份平静：顺丰和极兔以83亿港元对等交易实现战略互持股，京东物流则溢价35%全面收购德邦并推动退市。物流不再是单家公司在某个细分赛道里单打独斗，而是进入了“集团军”对战的阶段。...

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年成了中国物流行业格局真正洗牌的起点。之前几年，虽然也有并购整合，但整体还是“春秋混战”的感觉，顺丰、极兔、京东物流这些巨头各占一摊，在不同领域维持着相对平衡的局面。可到了2026年初，两件大事彻底打破了这份平静：顺丰和极兔以83亿港元对等交易实现战略互持股，京东物流则溢价35%全面收购德邦并推动退市。物流不再是单家公司在某个细分赛道里单打独斗，而是进入了“集团军”对战的阶段。顺丰+极兔的“弹性联盟”、京东系的“深度整合”、通达系+菜鸟的“生态绑定”三大阵营就这么成型，整个行业的竞争坐标彻底变了。所以我们也得换一套思路和标准，去重新看这场整合浪潮里的物流巨头。现在顺丰依然是国内综合物流能力最强的玩家，极兔则是东南亚的领头羊，它们俩最独特的地方在于，能通过资源互补搭出一张覆盖全域的网络。以前物流公司可以靠单点优势杀出一条血路：顺丰靠航空运力和高端时效站稳脚跟，极兔靠成本控制和本地化运营打开市场，京东靠电商协同建仓配体系。可行业一旦进入存量博弈，单点优势的护城河就被慢慢填磨平，流量分流、成本居高不下、海外扩张受阻等问题接连冒头，企业不得不从“单点突围”转向“生态共建”。在这样的背景下，顺丰和极兔联盟后的核心问题其实就一个：怎么通过网络、技术、业务的深度协同，找到一条适应新周期的“优势互补”路子。我们看到，双方围绕这几个方向已经在往前推：用跨境网络互补打通全球服务链；用数据打通提升整体运营效率；用业务差异化把服务边界往外拓。说到底，就是要把战场从单一赛道的价格厮杀，拉回到生态协同的价值比拼。我们重新审视这场联盟，看双方现在和接下来的一系列动作，其实都是放在这个框架里去理解的。1.物流行业的玩法变了顺丰的王卫和极兔的李杰都说过，物流这行本质是“网络密集型+运营精细化”的生意，既要砸大钱建基础设施，又得靠规模把成本压下来。国家邮政局的数据显示，2025年10月、11月快递业务量增速分别掉到7.9%和5%，第一次跌进个位数，行业正式步入存量时代。存量竞争下，物流的底层逻辑没变，但企业的打法被改写了。对物流公司而言，核心竞争力早就不是单纯比谁送得快、谁价格低，而是能不能提供覆盖全场景、全链路的一体化服务。特别是中资企业出海提速、跨境电商爆发，对端到端可控的物流体系需求变得非常迫切，这不是一家公司单干就能搞定的。顺丰的尴尬在于，跨境头程、干线、仓储、清关这些核心资源很强，国际业务覆盖95个国家和地区，可海外本地化运营始终是短板。2025年上半年海外收入占比只有10.36%，国际业务增速仅9.46%，离自己设的战略目标差了不少。极兔正好相反，它在东南亚扎得很深，2025年上半年市场份额做到32.8%，业务收入增长29.63%，毛利率17.81%，但缺少跨境头程和干线的资源，全球网络覆盖不够完整。与此同时，京东系通过收德邦、跨越速运，拼出了“即时配送+大件+高时效航空”的全场景矩阵；通达系靠菜鸟的技术赋能，稳住了电商快递的规模优势。行业门槛被大幅拉高，单家企业的资源短板被无限放大，顺丰和极兔继续各玩各的已经玩不下去了。联盟最直接的效果是，双方的网络短板迅速补上——顺丰拿到了极兔在东南亚13个国家的末端网络，极兔借顺丰的航空运力和国内高端网络快速升级。更长远看，这种“资本互嵌”的模式会推动双方从业务协同走向战略共振，一起抓住跨境电商的历史性机会。2.拼出一张跨境闭环顺丰和极兔联盟的核心逻辑，就是网络互补：把跨境头程和末端配送接起来，修补各自的短板，建一张全域覆盖的物流网。这既符合双方“全球一体化网络”的战略，也正好踩中中资出海和跨境物流的需求趋势。顺丰在跨境头程、干线上的资源和成熟体系，正是极兔全球扩张最缺的。极兔东南亚包裹量已经连涨两个季度超七成，2025年四季度新市场包裹增速高达79.7%，但这些市场的跨境需求需要强有力的头程支撑。顺丰的国际供应链数智化方案，能帮极兔把跨境效率提上去、成本压下来。反过来，极兔在东南亚的本地化运营和末端网络，就是顺丰打开海外市场的“跳板”。顺丰一直把国际业务当第二增长曲线，2025年股债融资主要也砸向国际，可海外本地化一直是痛点。借助极兔32.8%的东南亚份额和成熟派送网，顺丰能很快把海外渗透率提起来，国际业务加速跑。除了跨境，国内业务的互补也在同步走。顺丰在高端时效、冷链、医药等领域很强，客户偏中高端；极兔则在电商件、下沉市场有优势，尤其拼多多、抖音电商订单占比高。双方在网络、客户、产品上的天然差异，正好能一起把服务边界拓宽，覆盖从高端到低价、全场景的快递体系。特别一提，双方的网络协同不是简单1+1。据业内消息，顺丰和极兔已经在共享部分物流节点，包括仓储、分拣中心互相开放，通过资源复用把成本降下来。同时针对跨境电商的核心痛点，双方联合打造端到端产品，从国内揽收直达海外派送，全链路可控，客户体验明显提升。3.让数据把效率拉满除了网络拼图，顺丰和极兔还在往精细化运营上使劲，把竞争焦点拉回到自己擅长的效率赛道。效率优势的核心就是通过数据打通，实现供需精准匹配、智能调度、库存优化，这才是智慧物流的真正壁垒。在这个框架下，打破数据孤岛的动作最关键。有分析认为，这次合作本质是通过共建一体化网络，形成覆盖多国的统一数字物流生态，在算法调度、库存预测、消费者行为分析这些高阶领域筑起门槛。极兔的海外末端数据和顺丰的跨境头程数据一旦深度共享，就能拼出一张全球物流数据网。拿跨境电商来说，双方通过分析物流需求数据，能提前看清市场趋势，预判仓储布局，甚至反向影响商家的备货策略。比如东南亚电商旺季来临前，把国内货物提前调到极兔的当地仓，实现本地发货，大幅缩短时效。这种数据驱动的打法，能让供应链反应更快、更灵活。国内业务也一样。顺丰的智能调度系统能帮极兔优化配送路线、降低空驶率；极兔在电商件上的规模经验也能给顺丰的电商业务提效。双方正在联合推数字化升级，比如统一电子面单标准、实时共享物流轨迹，让客户随时看得到包裹走到哪。更实际的是，技术协同还在帮双方省钱。物流的规模效应很明显，单票成本和业务量反着走。通过数据匹配，运力资源可以更优配置：顺丰的飞机和极兔的陆运根据时效和距离灵活切换，综合成本下降；智能分拣设备共享、人力调配优化，运营效率进一步抬升。写在最后说到底，网络和技术协同都只是手段，目的是建一个更抗打的物流生态，把服务价值边界往外拓。顺丰和极兔联盟，不光是为了补短板，更是为了一起抢新增长空间，争取全球供应链里更大的话语权。跨境电商物流这块，生态协同已经看到效果。国内市场则重点拓场景。顺丰的冷链、医药优势，加上极兔的电商网络，能为生鲜、医药电商提供定制服务。比如生鲜全程冷链，从产地到消费者用顺丰冷链+极兔末端；医药物流合规性要求高，顺丰专业团队把关，极兔负责高效配送。双方还在试水供应链金融。基于物流数据积累，给中小商家做信用评估、提供融资贷款，解决资金周转痛点。这种“物流+金融”的玩法，既能粘住客户，又能打开新收入来源，提升整体盈利。加上新兴市场联合开拓、AI技术共同投入、绿色物流协同推进，所有这些动作最终都在回答一个问题：在物流“三国时代”里，怎么才能站到主导位置。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}