中国科技企业出海的6条最新趋势！_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

中国科技企业出海的6条最新趋势！

芯师爷01-20

作者刚刚在美国拉斯维加斯CES展及硅谷调研了一周，总结了关于AI和中国科技企业出海的6条最新趋势：【01】Token消耗激增，自研乃大势所趋不管是美国还是中国，token的消耗量增长非常快，导致企业对算力成本越来越敏感。谷歌的自研芯片、自研模型、自研应用的垂直整合模式后劲很足，因为自研芯片后算力成本至少降低40%-50%。因此目前在美国普遍认为谷歌的后劲比open AI更足。除了Gemini...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026012021434297a29c24&s=b><strong>芯师爷</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者刚刚在美国拉斯维加斯CES展及硅谷调研了一周，总结了关于AI和中国科技企业出海的6条最新趋势：【01】Token消耗激增，自研乃大势所趋不管是美国还是中国，token的消耗量增长非常快，导致企业对算力成本越来越敏感。谷歌的自研芯片、自研模型、自研应用的垂直整合模式后劲很足，因为自研芯片后算力成本至少降低40%-50%。因此目前在美国普遍认为谷歌的后劲比open AI更足。除了Gemini...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2026012021434297a29c24&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2750360997.AUD","symbol_name":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) 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overseas!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"MACW.SI":0.6,"BABA":0.9,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"GOOG":0.87,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"GOOGL":0.7,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDA":0.9,"NVD":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"00992":1.85,"GGLS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"LNVGY":1.85,"NVDQ":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6},"content_text":"作者刚刚在美国拉斯维加斯CES展及硅谷调研了一周，总结了关于AI和中国科技企业出海的6条最新趋势：【01】Token消耗激增，自研乃大势所趋不管是美国还是中国，token的消耗量增长非常快，导致企业对算力成本越来越敏感。谷歌的自研芯片、自研模型、自研应用的垂直整合模式后劲很足，因为自研芯片后算力成本至少降低40%-50%。因此目前在美国普遍认为谷歌的后劲比open AI更足。除了Gemini表现出色，现在传出来谷歌的开源模型马上也要推出了。国内最像谷歌AI布局的是阿里云和字节。阿里自研的平头哥芯片发展的不错，千问大模型在开源的策略下，不管是美国还是中国，有很多公司在用，这个会带动阿里的云服务销售上升，因为平头哥自研算力芯片布局早，因此阿里云在算力成本上相比起国内厂商来说会有明显优势。字节现在极大概率也在自研算力芯片，虽然没有公开宣布。字节未来也可能形成类似谷歌的完整布局。字节的优势是豆包的日活已经过亿（海外日活也过千万了），而且只用了1年多的时间（微信当年日活过亿用了3年），字节的C端优势更强。【02】AI成为消费电子产品的溢价密码因为开源AI模型的快速发展，使得许多传统的不太卖的上价的硬件，现在套个AI的模型，马上价格就翻了好多。例如硬件成本40美金的Plaud录音笔，因为用AI可以自动整理会议纪要、自动翻译，现在价格卖199美元，大家也觉得无所谓，而且它每个月还可以收用户一笔订阅服务费。这个对于中国厂商来说，是个比较大的机会。这次CES，可以看到中国在硬件上的供应链优势很明显。不管你是搞智能眼镜、机器人、智能家电还是什么其他硬件，基本完全离不开中国供应链。在美国已经出现有团队拿深圳那边成熟的硬件方案，改一下，套个壳子加个应用在美国当成自己方案的事情，中美在智能硬件产业链上差距越来越大，甚至美国的大公司要做智能硬件，也只能借助中国供应链。【03】AI时代，软件和硬件的边界正在模糊从硅谷的发展趋势来看，AI的终极产品形态可能是软硬件结合。所以谷歌在出Gemini的手机，豆包也出了手机，ChatGPT的硬件也快出了，苹果的AI硬件也快出了。短期最可能的大规模普及的AI硬件仍然是手机，毕竟手机的用户场景和用户习惯最成熟。从智能手机的发展历史来看，苹果代表的硬件、操作系统、核心零部件、芯片自研垂直整合模式，用户体验是最好的，虽然成本更高一点，但是事实证明，因为手机是每个用户每天用的时长最长的电子产品，也可以极大的提升工作效率和生活体验，所以用户对于手机涨价的接受程度是比较高的，尤其是在人均GDP超过7万美金的美国市场，一部售价几百美金的iPhone手机，也就是一个普通美国人几天的收入，因此iPhone在美国市场的换机留存率高达91%（小米等中国手机品牌在中国市场这一数据只有60%左右）。因此如果AI起来后出现软硬件结合的产品，理论上用户体验是最好的，用户可能会对价格不是那么敏感。现在不管是芯片厂商还是硬件厂商，都在提“端测AI”，或者“混合式AI”，也就是说，从所有的AI运算发生在云端，逐步变成端、云结合。这要求硬件设备在本地也有一定的AI算力，这会带来更好的用户体验，当然短期内硬件的价格也会上涨。目前来看苹果肯定是最有优势的，苹果一向以保密做的好著称，它在AI和硬件结合上现在还没有太多消息出来。最新传出了苹果可能和硅谷在AI模型上合作的消息。【04】在海外市场做品牌的门槛非常高CES这次中国企业参展非常踊跃，相比之下美国、日本的企业则显得参展的很少。这个显示在中国国内内卷的情况下，企业都想出海去赚海外的钱。比如这次追觅搞了个特别大的展台，一次展出了从扫地机器人、电吹风、洗衣机器人、摄像头、智能家居、汽车在内的一大批产品线，追觅现在80%的利润来自海外市场。像联想、沃尔沃、安踏这些老牌大企业，早年在海外收购了一些不错的品牌资产，现在做海外市场就比较顺手，不用从头开始做。而且，联想的组织架构非常有意思，研发和生产主要在中国，但是营销很国际化，任用了一些外籍高管负责海外市场和渠道。。所以从这次CES可以看出，联想的这一套体系在海外玩的很转，他们这次在CES包了很贵的Sphere（大圆球），光场地费就花了不少钱，观众来了15000人，还请来了黄仁勋、苏姿丰、陈立武等大佬到场站台，联想还花巨资赞助了世界杯和F1.海外的市场和渠道很吃这一套，所以联想国际大品牌的形象就很快建立起来了——因为PC这种产品，需要渠道帮忙一起推，所以很多这些钱其实是花给渠道看的，就是要在海外展示实力。联想这几年业绩也不错，它海外市场收入占70%，日子非常滋润。像联想这种海外品牌模式的壁垒非常高，一旦建立起来，别人就很难效仿。对于很多新创立的中国品牌来说，现在做新品牌，环境就不是那么友好了。因为营销越来越碎片化，渠道越来越集中化。营销碎片化是因为社交网络崛起，像抖音（TT）、facebook、ins、小红书、YouTube这些在线平台的流量非常分散化，这导致企业的营销成本高企，营销效果却很不确定。而渠道越来越集中到亚马逊、temu、Costco、沃尔玛等少数渠道手上。营销和渠道的两头挤压，导致新品牌很难做，难以做出差异化，而差异化不足就导致毛利不高。我们在美国看到很多中国企业干脆完全放弃在美国做品牌，不投入营销费用，只卖货。例如方太就很典型，方太在中国国内也算是个大品牌（厨电第一品牌，一年200多亿销售额，当年央视砸过很多年广告品牌做起来的，吃到了电视红利），但是在美国没有人听说过这个牌子，现在方太也不怎么在美国投入营销费用，就通过代理商在亚马逊上卖卖货，先把线上做起来，然后线下很多渠道就找过来了。现在做海外市场，低技术含量的劳动密集型产品，例如鞋子、衣服、背包、杯子这些东西，在海外做品牌已经机会不大了，因为拼多多的temu等平台将白牌产品从中国工厂直达欧美消费者，品牌失去了空间和价值。不要说新品牌，中国国内的安踏、李宁这些有品牌的老牌厂商，出海成功的也不是那么多。但是高科技的硬件产品，尤其是AI硬件，机会还是不少的，主要是中国有工程师红利和产业链优势。【05】智能眼镜的意义或许被低估了目前看智能眼镜的想象空间比原来大很多，原因是智能眼镜会极大的放大人的智力差。一个戴了眼镜的人，走在街上可能什么都知道什么都懂，而不戴的人可能什么都不懂，那么戴了眼镜的人就跟开挂作弊一样。智能眼镜可能先从B端市场先普及，例如餐厅可以给服务员大量配智能眼镜——一个员工，第一天招进来不用怎么培训就可以上岗——怎么服务、说什么话眼镜都自动提示好。教育培训领域也可以大量配智能眼镜给员工，教案直接植入到眼镜里面，老师戴了眼镜可以马上认出任何一个学生的名字。钉钉的智能硬件产品目前智能眼镜还有一些问题，例如重量太重，戴久了不舒服，电池续航还不够长，只有单色显示等，但是这些技术问题长期来看都会慢慢解决。光机等核心零部件的价格也还没有下来。上游供应链已经传出来到2027年，智能眼镜的彩色显示技术可能有重大突破，那时候眼镜的体验就要好很多了。【06】英伟达下场做智驾，这是个很严重的信号英伟达黄仁勋在CES演讲上推出了Alpamayo开源模型+drive全栈+robotaxi智能驾驶的方案，这个对于整个新能源汽车还用自动驾驶行业来说，可能不是什么好消息。现在中国各个车厂都自己养团队搞一个自动驾驶方案，还有很多第三方的自动驾驶创业公司，这种重复造轮子的研发，导致资源严重浪费。英伟达的方案推出后迅速拉低了自动驾驶门槛，原来在自动驾驶上比较弱的中小车厂可以迅速推出性能并不见得比大车厂差多少的自动驾驶方案了。那么对于过去花了挺多钱搞全栈自研的车厂，将会一个是巨大挑战。对于Waymo、萝卜快跑这种在robotaxi上积累了很久的厂商来说也是重大打击。那么整个新能源汽车领域，包括自动驾驶领域，以后可能都不是什么好的生意，大家都在一个没有太多差异化、需要长期巨额重资产投入的产业里面，长期内卷，赚不到什么钱。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}