马斯克科技版图扩张：2纳米晶圆厂构想背后的半导体产能博弈_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

马斯克科技版图扩张：2纳米晶圆厂构想背后的半导体产能博弈

ITBEAR科技资讯01-19

埃隆·马斯克近期抛出一项震撼半导体行业的计划：特斯拉拟自建一座2纳米制程的“TeraFab”晶圆厂，目标月产能从10万片起步，最终冲刺百万片规模。这一构想源于其对传统代工模式响应速度的强烈不满——当马斯克询问台积电和三星新建工厂的周期时，对方给出的“五年”答复被他视为“错失AI时代先机的代名词”。尽管英伟达CEO黄仁勋质疑其良率难以企及台积电水平，且EUV光刻环境对洁净度的严苛要求与马斯克设想的“...

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4.1模型，标志着AI从实验室向生产力工具的转型，其支撑硬件规模已达55万块GPU，并计划在2026年扩展至相当于百万块H100的规模。为满足这一需求，xAI在密西西比州投建的超级数据中心，峰值能耗达2吉瓦，相当于为200万户家庭供电。更引人注目的是其能源解决方案——直接从韩国斗山能源采购5台380兆瓦燃气轮机，构建独立发电体系。资本层面，xAI完成200亿美元E轮融资后，迅速与三星签署代工协议，开发新一代专用AI加速器芯片，试图摆脱对英伟达的依赖。特斯拉的芯片需求则呈现另一维度爆发。马斯克预测，未来特斯拉每年AI芯片需求量将在“1亿至2000亿颗”间波动，这种量级直接改写代工市场规则。自动驾驶芯片领域，特斯拉采用“双代工”策略：AI5芯片由台积电亚利桑那工厂与三星得州工厂共同生产，2027年量产时算力将较AI4提升3-5倍；AI6芯片更与三星签署165亿美元长期协议，合同期至2033年，实际订单可能突破500亿美元。这些芯片将支撑FSD系统累计100亿公里的行驶数据，以及2026年4月量产的Cybercab无人驾驶出租车——该车型年产能目标200万辆，仅此一项就将消耗数百万颗高端芯片。人形机器人Optimus的量产计划，正在开辟第二大芯片消耗场景。2025年底定型的第三代（V3）版本，运动稳定性达人类水平，手指关节增至22个，制造成本压缩至2万美元以内。其算力核心目前采用台积电7纳米工艺的Dojo D1芯片，未来将升级至AI5/AI6平台。中国供应链在此过程中扮演关键角色：三花智控获得6.85亿美元线性执行器订单，绿的谐波苏州工厂规划50万台年产能，汇川技术、埃斯顿等企业则进入伺服系统供应名单。马斯克的订单流向，已成为全球零部件厂商的战略风向标。SpaceX的垂直整合战略则延伸至芯片封装领域。为确保星链网络稳定性，其已采购超过50亿枚意法半导体RF天线芯片，预计2027年突破100亿枚。这些采用BiCMOS技术的芯片，能在太空辐射环境中稳定工作。但SpaceX并不满足于采购，计划在得州建设面板级扇出型封装（FOPLP）工厂，采用700mm×700mm超大封装尺寸，远超行业标准。结合此前建成的PCB制造基地，SpaceX旨在实现从芯片封装到卫星总装的全面自主控制。这一转变的背景是星链用户突破900万，2026年卫星总数将达1.5万颗，同时推进太空数据中心项目与“直连手机”服务，对芯片功耗控制提出全新挑战。脑机接口公司Neuralink的需求则聚焦于微型化与高可靠性。随着2025年6月完成6.5亿美元E轮融资，其植入式设备已服务多位脊髓损伤患者，临床数据显示受试者每周使用时长超50小时。2026年，Neuralink计划启动大规模生产，并推进自动化手术机器人方案。全球数万患者排队等待接入，直接催生对神经信号处理芯片的规模化需求——这类芯片需在极低功耗下保持高信噪比，制造工艺复杂度不亚于高端逻辑芯片。这场由马斯克引发的半导体产能革命，正在重塑行业生态。从云端算力到边缘计算，从人形机器人到太空通信，再到脑机接口，一个覆盖多领域的技术帝国对芯片的渴求，将供应链交付能力与技术迭代速度推至极限。对于传统代工厂而言，这既是巨额订单的机遇，也是对先进制程与封装产能的终极考验。无论“TeraFab”最终是否落地，它已揭示一个现实：在AI与物理世界深度融合的时代，传统代工模式的响应周期正面临前所未有的挑战。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}