小米2026战略解析：手机承压、汽车冲55万销量，瑞银维持中性评级_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

小米2026战略解析：手机承压、汽车冲55万销量，瑞银维持中性评级

调研纪要杂货铺01-19

在瑞银2026年大中华区会议上，小米披露了最新业务布局与挑战，核心围绕智能手机、智能汽车、IoT三大板块展开。尽管面临内存涨价等行业压力，但小米通过产品结构优化、产能扩张等举措积极应对，雷军更是明确了2026年汽车55万辆的交付目标。瑞银维持小米“中性”评级，目标价46港元，较当前股价仍有21.8%的上涨空间。这份充满机遇与挑战的年度规划，藏着哪些关键信号？一、智能手机：内存涨价致出货承压，多举措...

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Ultra系列市场反馈良好，成为提价核心抓手；•优化硬件配置：中低端机型将DRAM内存从8GB降至4GB，但保留64GB/128GB作为基础存储选项，平衡成本与用户体验；•精简产品SKU：聚焦高端机型，优化产品结构，减少低毛利机型占比。供应链方面，小米已向全球五大DRAM厂商采购，确保供应稳定。长期来看，小米计划在未渗透的发达市场抢占份额，并在现有高市占率市场进一步提升产品均价，对冲短期出货压力。二、智能汽车：冲刺55万交付量，海外2027年启动雷军在会议中确认，小米汽车2026年交付目标为55万辆，这一目标低于瑞银及市场共识的72万辆/69.7万辆。尽管目标保守，但小米的核心策略是“最大化规模”：•应对市场转型：2025年行业处于供应受限状态，2026年将转向需求驱动，小米通过持续的以旧换新补贴刺激消费；•毛利率承压：由于产能利用率不足100%、内存及金属等原材料涨价、购车退税补贴等因素，2026年汽车业务毛利率可能低于2025年水平；•海外布局不变：维持2027年启动海外市场的计划，在需求明确前暂不规划海外产能。三、IoT与AI：海外成增长引擎，技术投入持续加码1. IoT业务：聚焦海外，国内竞争加剧2026年小米IoT业务的增长将主要依赖海外市场，中国市场则面临愈发激烈的竞争。在家电领域，海外市场的软件服务收入及配件搭载率仍落后于中国，核心原因是许多AI功能尚未在国际市场落地，成为未来优化重点。2. AI布局：汽车端落地更快，研发投入增长小米在AI领域的系统级应用将率先在汽车上落地，今年晚些时候会推出更大参数的模型，初期主要基于免费开源模型开发。研发投入方面，2026年将同比增长（2025年预计为320亿元），重点投向AI、芯片、汽车和机器人领域；资本开支也将进一步增加，优先用于新电动汽车设施和AI基础设施建设。四、财务与估值：瑞银维持中性，目标价46港元1.核心财务预测•营收：预计2026年达5946.31亿元，2027年增至6918.07亿元，保持稳健增长；•每股收益（EPS）：2026年预计1.86元，2027年升至2.34元；•估值：瑞银采用分部估值法（SOTP），给予12个月目标价46港元，对应当前股价（37.78港元）有21.8%的上涨空间，维持“中性”评级。2.风险与机遇•下行风险：智能手机原材料涨价、高端市场竞争加剧；IoT业务国内需求疲软；汽车产能爬坡不及预期、新品推出失败；估值因资本利用不足下调；•上行风险：边缘AI手机在全球加速普及，带动高端机型需求；IoT产品商业化提前落地；海外业务扩张推动互联网服务收入增长；智能汽车出货量及市占率超预期。互动时间小米2026年一边要应对手机业务的短期压力，一边要冲刺汽车55万辆交付目标，同时持续加码AI与IoT布局。你认为哪项业务将成为小米全年增长的核心驱动力？对于小米汽车的海外扩张和手机的高端化转型，你更看好哪一个的长期潜力？欢迎在评论区留言分享你的看法～ 觉得内容有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注科技圈的朋友！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":528582571913288,"gmtCreate":1770079039660,"gmtModify":1770082683443,"author":{"id":"3547123118460519","authorId":"3547123118460519","name":"boxing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac5e68ceeb9fd687e56c2c0120a07fb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3547123118460519","idStr":"3547123118460519"},"htmlText":"小米有高端的产品？","listText":"小米有高端的产品？","text":"小米有高端的产品？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528582571913288","repostId":2604018848,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2604018848","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1768802426,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2604018848?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-19 14:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米2026战略解析：手机承压、汽车冲55万销量，瑞银维持中性评级","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2604018848","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"在瑞银2026年大中华区会议上，小米披露了最新业务布局与挑战，核心围绕智能手机、智能汽车、IoT三大板块展开。瑞银维持小米“中性”评级，目标价46港元，较当前股价仍有21.8%的上涨空间。互动时间小米2026年一边要应对手机业务的短期压力，一边要冲刺汽车55万辆交付目标，同时持续加码AI与IoT布局。","content":"<html><body><article><p>在瑞银2026年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00021\">大中华</a>区会议上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>披露了最新业务布局与挑战，核心围绕智能手机、智能汽车、IoT三大板块展开。尽管面临内存涨价等行业压力，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a>通过产品结构优化、产能扩张等举措积极应对，雷军更是明确了2026年汽车55万辆的交付目标。瑞银维持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>“中性”评级，目标价46港元，较当前股价仍有21.8%的上涨空间。这份充满机遇与挑战的年度规划，藏着哪些关键信号？</p><p><strong>一、智能手机：内存涨价致<span>出货</span>承压，多举措稳<span>毛利</span></strong></p><p>2026年小米手机业务将面临不小压力，核心制约因素是内存价格飙升，管理层预计全年出货量可能同比下滑，具体目标仍在敲定中。为稳定毛利率，小米推出三项关键措施：</p><p>•提升产品均价（ASP）：高端机型发力明显，小米17 Ultra系列市场反馈良好，成为提价核心抓手；</p><p>•优化硬件配置：中低端机型将DRAM内存从8GB降至4GB，但保留64GB/128GB作为基础存储选项，平衡成本与用户体验；</p><p>•精简产品SKU：聚焦高端机型，优化产品结构，减少低毛利机型占比。</p><p>供应链方面，小米已向全球五大DRAM厂商采购，确保供应稳定。长期来看，小米计划在未渗透的发达市场抢占份额，并在现有高市占率市场进一步提升产品均价，对冲短期出货压力。</p><p><strong>二、智能汽车：冲刺</strong>55万交付量，海外2027年启动</p><p>雷军在会议中确认，小米汽车2026年交付目标为55万辆，这一目标低于瑞银及市场共识的72万辆/69.7万辆。尽管目标保守，但小米的核心策略是“最大化规模”：</p><p>•应对市场转型：2025年行业处于供应受限状态，2026年将转向需求驱动，小米通过持续的以旧换新补贴刺激消费；</p><p>•毛利率承压：由于产能利用率不足100%、内存及金属等原材料涨价、购车退税补贴等因素，2026年汽车业务毛利率可能低于2025年水平；</p><p>•海外布局不变：维持2027年启动海外市场的计划，在需求明确前暂不规划海外产能。</p><p><strong>三、</strong>IoT与AI：海外成增长引擎，技术投入持续加码</p><p><strong>1. IoT</strong>业务：聚焦海外，国内竞争加剧</p><p>2026年小米IoT业务的增长将主要依赖海外市场，中国市场则面临愈发激烈的竞争。在家电领域，海外市场的软件服务收入及配件搭载率仍落后于中国，核心原因是许多AI功能尚未在国际市场落地，成为未来优化重点。</p><p><strong>2. AI</strong>布局：汽车端落地更快，研发投入增长</p><p>小米在AI领域的系统级应用将率先在汽车上落地，今年晚些时候会推出更大参数的模型，初期主要基于免费开源模型开发。研发投入方面，2026年将同比增长（2025年预计为320亿元），重点投向AI、芯片、汽车和机器人领域；资本开支也将进一步增加，优先用于新电动汽车设施和AI基础设施建设。</p><p><strong>四、财务与估值：瑞银维持中性，目标价</strong>46港元</p><p><strong>1.</strong>核心财务预测</p><p>•营收：预计2026年达5946.31亿元，2027年增至6918.07亿元，保持稳健增长；</p><p>•<span>每股收益</span>（EPS）：2026年预计1.86元，2027年升至2.34元；</p><p>•估值：瑞银采用分部估值法（SOTP），给予12个月目标价46港元，对应当前股价（37.78港元）有21.8%的上涨空间，维持“中性”评级。</p><p><strong>2.</strong>风险与机遇</p><p>•下行风险：智能手机原材料涨价、高端市场竞争加剧；IoT业务国内需求疲软；汽车产能爬坡不及预期、新品推出失败；估值因资本利用不足下调；</p><p>•上行风险：边缘AI手机在全球加速普及，带动高端机型需求；IoT产品商业化提前落地；海外业务扩张推动互联网服务收入增长；智能汽车出货量及市占率超预期。</p><p><strong>互动时间</strong></p><p>小米2026年一边要应对手机业务的短期压力，一边要冲刺汽车55万辆交付目标，同时持续加码AI与IoT布局。你认为哪项业务将成为小米全年增长的核心驱动力？对于小米汽车的海外扩张和手机的高端化转型，你更看好哪一个的长期潜力？欢迎在评论区留言分享你的看法～ 觉得内容有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注科技圈的朋友！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260119144931a43bbbae&s=b><strong>调研纪要杂货铺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在瑞银2026年大中华区会议上，小米披露了最新业务布局与挑战，核心围绕智能手机、智能汽车、IoT三大板块展开。尽管面临内存涨价等行业压力，但小米通过产品结构优化、产能扩张等举措积极应对，雷军更是明确了2026年汽车55万辆的交付目标。瑞银维持小米“中性”评级，目标价46港元，较当前股价仍有21.8%的上涨空间。这份充满机遇与挑战的年度规划，藏着哪些关键信号？一、智能手机：内存涨价致出货承压，多举措...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260119144931a43bbbae&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU2778985437.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"A\" (USD) INC","HK0000165453.HKD":"华夏精选大中华科技基金 A类港币","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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Ultra系列市场反馈良好，成为提价核心抓手；•优化硬件配置：中低端机型将DRAM内存从8GB降至4GB，但保留64GB/128GB作为基础存储选项，平衡成本与用户体验；•精简产品SKU：聚焦高端机型，优化产品结构，减少低毛利机型占比。供应链方面，小米已向全球五大DRAM厂商采购，确保供应稳定。长期来看，小米计划在未渗透的发达市场抢占份额，并在现有高市占率市场进一步提升产品均价，对冲短期出货压力。二、智能汽车：冲刺55万交付量，海外2027年启动雷军在会议中确认，小米汽车2026年交付目标为55万辆，这一目标低于瑞银及市场共识的72万辆/69.7万辆。尽管目标保守，但小米的核心策略是“最大化规模”：•应对市场转型：2025年行业处于供应受限状态，2026年将转向需求驱动，小米通过持续的以旧换新补贴刺激消费；•毛利率承压：由于产能利用率不足100%、内存及金属等原材料涨价、购车退税补贴等因素，2026年汽车业务毛利率可能低于2025年水平；•海外布局不变：维持2027年启动海外市场的计划，在需求明确前暂不规划海外产能。三、IoT与AI：海外成增长引擎，技术投入持续加码1. IoT业务：聚焦海外，国内竞争加剧2026年小米IoT业务的增长将主要依赖海外市场，中国市场则面临愈发激烈的竞争。在家电领域，海外市场的软件服务收入及配件搭载率仍落后于中国，核心原因是许多AI功能尚未在国际市场落地，成为未来优化重点。2. AI布局：汽车端落地更快，研发投入增长小米在AI领域的系统级应用将率先在汽车上落地，今年晚些时候会推出更大参数的模型，初期主要基于免费开源模型开发。研发投入方面，2026年将同比增长（2025年预计为320亿元），重点投向AI、芯片、汽车和机器人领域；资本开支也将进一步增加，优先用于新电动汽车设施和AI基础设施建设。四、财务与估值：瑞银维持中性，目标价46港元1.核心财务预测•营收：预计2026年达5946.31亿元，2027年增至6918.07亿元，保持稳健增长；•每股收益（EPS）：2026年预计1.86元，2027年升至2.34元；•估值：瑞银采用分部估值法（SOTP），给予12个月目标价46港元，对应当前股价（37.78港元）有21.8%的上涨空间，维持“中性”评级。2.风险与机遇•下行风险：智能手机原材料涨价、高端市场竞争加剧；IoT业务国内需求疲软；汽车产能爬坡不及预期、新品推出失败；估值因资本利用不足下调；•上行风险：边缘AI手机在全球加速普及，带动高端机型需求；IoT产品商业化提前落地；海外业务扩张推动互联网服务收入增长；智能汽车出货量及市占率超预期。互动时间小米2026年一边要应对手机业务的短期压力，一边要冲刺汽车55万辆交付目标，同时持续加码AI与IoT布局。你认为哪项业务将成为小米全年增长的核心驱动力？对于小米汽车的海外扩张和手机的高端化转型，你更看好哪一个的长期潜力？欢迎在评论区留言分享你的看法～ 觉得内容有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注科技圈的朋友！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"XIACY":1.96,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"MIUmain":0.6,"01810":1.96}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}