淘宝闪购背靠着AI把竞争完全升维了，这让美团怎么接？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

淘宝闪购背靠着AI把竞争完全升维了，这让美团怎么接？

新浪财经01-16

回头又看了一遍阿里千问发布会，确实有点震撼。对阿里过去大半年重投布局的AI和WAIMAI早晚会合流这件事有预期，只不过没想到这么快。这也意味着在2026年，消费市场的变局将以超乎想象的方式开启。千问App发布会上，吴嘉对着手机说了一句“帮我点40杯霸王茶姬的伯牙绝弦”，几秒内完成选店、下单、支付，骑手半小时左右把奶茶送到现场。这是一个很具体、很难伪装的演示。虽然目前千问接入淘宝闪购、支付宝AI付，...

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股道自然
·01-16
就一个语音识别就能干倒美团？
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How can Meituan pick up this?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"BABA":1.95,"03690":1.91,"MPNGY":1.91,"ALBmain":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"09988":1.95,"METmain":0.6},"content_text":"回头又看了一遍阿里千问发布会，确实有点震撼。对阿里过去大半年重投布局的AI和WAIMAI早晚会合流这件事有预期，只不过没想到这么快。这也意味着在2026年，消费市场的变局将以超乎想象的方式开启。千问App发布会上，吴嘉对着手机说了一句“帮我点40杯霸王茶姬的伯牙绝弦”，几秒内完成选店、下单、支付，骑手半小时左右把奶茶送到现场。这是一个很具体、很难伪装的演示。虽然目前千问接入淘宝闪购、支付宝AI付，还处在公测和灰度验证阶段，但从行业视角看，这种“现场点、现场到”的展示，已经完全跑通从理解到执行，再到支付技术闭环。这属于一套可复制、可扩展的能力框架，一旦体验稳定，未来导流弹性会非常大。特别是放到外卖这个高频场景，用户入口在迁移，或者说交互习惯，从“点选操作”迁移到“自然语言对话”。作为淘宝闪购的竞争对手们，如果看了这个发布会，肯定是很难坐得住了。外卖的胜负逻辑开始改变在这之前，讲外卖行业上半场，核心比的是两套能力：一套叫“履约密度”（骑手、站点、路径），一套叫“页面效率”（搜索、筛选、优惠、推荐）。美团长期强在前者，抢市场的话铁军地推，大家也默认“外卖就是这套游戏”。现在千问接入淘宝闪购之后，感觉在不远、且可预见的下个消费周期，游戏规则多了一层——用户第一步不一定要先打开外卖App了，先打开大概率是一个对话框，而且这个对话框是谁不重要，把需求交给系统完成就行了。这完全颠覆了推荐流那套逻辑，要知道包括美团在内的很多平台，都是按照这套逻辑建立起来的商业赚钱模式，过去几年死磕的“列表页优化”，这种边际价值会指数级下降。举个例子，比如我正在减重，“想点一份低脂晚餐，别太辣，30分钟内到”，在传统App里基本要靠自己筛店、翻菜单、看评价、算配送时长，还需要翻一下自己卡包里面哪些券可以用，凑个单什么的，这一套操作任务下来十几分钟就出去了。但是这种个性化相对复杂的需求，交给AI能给你秒回，以一次性把意图拆解成约束条件，再去匹配供给。过去讲用户需求，但很多做产品的人其实都有个共识，用户其实有时候也不知道自己需要的是什么，本质上就只有个意图。现在外卖场景，用户侧从“操作任务”变成“表达意图”，竞争就被抬到更高的维度：谁理解得更准、执行得更稳、闭环更短，未来谁就更容易把用户习惯锁进来。虽然现在只是雏形，离成熟的体验终态肯定还有一段距离，但这带来的想象力和前沿性已经足够惊人。甚至称之为是整个市场升维到下个时代的“奇点”都不为过。支付闭环，关键是要打穿“最后一公里”AI点外卖并不稀奇，关键的是这玩意能端内完成交易闭环。像AI智能体给出来购物建议之类的，其实国外很多大模型都有雏形，很多智能体能推荐、能对话，给你各种购物、机票、订餐建议等等，但几乎都会卡在最后一步。要么跳转，要么让用户自己去跳转付钱。这一步对外卖这种高频场景很致命。因为外卖转化漏斗里，步骤带来犹豫，跳转就是流失。阿里这次把“支付宝AI付”开放给千问做系统级打通，用户授权后，支付可以在千问对话界面内完成，全程不需要跳到别的App。看发布会信息里提到，AI付让操作步骤减少超过60%。从商业效率讲，同样的流量、同样的意图，成交率必然会因为链路变短而提高。另外还有个容易被忽视的量：千问C端上线两个月，月活已经突破1亿。哪怕仅仅把千问当一个“对话入口”，也不算小众产品了，已经具备规模化导流的可能性。而对淘宝闪购来说，这相当于多了一条用户进入路径，而且这条路径天然带“意图表达”的强信号，转化质量也更高。优先拿到下个时代的流量船票，这个会让对手真的很难跟。闪购的优势正在持续放大结合最近阿里释放出来的消息看，淘宝闪购本身这块业务的战略位置是不断抬高的，而且属于长期主义，不是那种“活动冲量、停了就掉”的阶段。据此前1月8日前后流传的FY26Q3（12月季度）业绩前瞻纪要，闪购业绩表现稳中向好。市场流传的口径是，12月季度淘宝闪购GMV份额继续增长，订单结构持续改善，AOV保持增长；同时提到非餐即时零售进展快，媒体也报道非餐订单量稳定在日均1000万单级别。当时我比较关注的一个点是，亏损收敛速度快于竞对，市场预期亏损约200亿这一档。这套逻辑下来看，淘宝闪购是要把结构往更可持续的方向推，现在这个叠加AI入口，感觉效果会更明显。千问接入闪购，能够充当“放大器”的角色，对闪购业务本身结构会进一步重塑，把低效的选择过程交给系统，提升成交转化；把复杂需求拆解成高价值订单，提升结构质量。如果把这部分预期加进去，亏损可能来到前瞻预期的下沿，甚至200亿以下。美团的压力个人感觉，美团现在面对的压力，其实已经不只是“有没有AI点外卖”这么简单了。阿里这次做的，并不是给闪购加个聊天功能，而是把模型、算力、支付、履约和消费场景整合成了一套能真正跑起来的系统，直接落在外卖这种高频业务上。闪购本身就是高度结构化的场景：商家匹配、库存判断、履约路径、支付确认，原本就有完整的数据和流程体系，现在交给AI做的是“理解需求+调度系统”。而这背后，是千问，是阿里过去几年持续重投入堆出来的基础设施。市场统计显示，过去四个季度阿里在AI和云相关资本开支上累计接近1200亿元人民币，同期腾讯大概在700–1000亿，百度约300–500亿，阿里在国内投入力度是最高的，而且管理层还明确提出未来三年投入3800亿用于AI相关建设，内部甚至认为这个数字偏保守。 高盛 给的Capex预期是4600亿。通义千问作为国内最早一批开源的大模型体系，已经覆盖文本、多模态、代码、Agent等多个方向，并在 阿里云 上形成了成熟的推理和部署能力。官方披露的数据里，相关模型下载量早就过亿，企业级调用规模也在持续放量。摩根士丹利 在1月的最新研报里提到，中国AI产业正在从“算力炒作”转向“应用落地定价”，真正有价值的是那些既有庞大用户基础，又能把模型能力转化为商业效率的平台型公司。阿里凭借 云计算 和模型能力的结合，被认为是国内AI落地能力最强的赋能者之一。阿里这几年在算力、模型训练、推理服务和企业级AI平台上的资本开支一直维持高位，这些都是重资产、长周期工程，本质上是在为“AI原生业务形态”提前铺路。而外卖这种高频、标准化、可量化的场景，正好是AI最容易体现效率优势的地方。反过来看美团，履约网络和本地服务密度依然是它现在的核心优势，这一点不会变。但在“AI作为入口和决策中枢”的新维度上，美团需要补的不是一个功能，而是一整套体系：模型能力、支付协同、跨场景数据整合，以及把AI真正嵌入业务流程的工程能力。这种差距，靠几次产品更新很难追平。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":522263244354688,"gmtCreate":1768541641773,"gmtModify":1768541644523,"author":{"id":"4192259115439500","authorId":"4192259115439500","name":"股道自然","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4192259115439500","idStr":"4192259115439500"},"htmlText":"就一个语音识别就能干倒美团？","listText":"就一个语音识别就能干倒美团？","text":"就一个语音识别就能干倒美团？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/522263244354688","repostId":2603930038,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2603930038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1768526291,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2603930038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-16 09:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"淘宝闪购背靠着AI把竞争完全升维了，这让美团怎么接？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2603930038","media":"新浪财经","summary":"虽然目前千问接入淘宝闪购、支付宝AI付，还处在公测和灰度验证阶段，但从行业视角看，这种“现场点、现场到”的展示，已经完全跑通从理解到执行，再到支付技术闭环。作为淘宝闪购的竞争对手们，如果看了这个发布会，肯定是很难坐得住了。这套逻辑下来看，淘宝闪购是要把结构往更可持续的方向推，现在这个叠加AI入口，感觉效果会更明显。","content":"<html><body><article><p>回头又看了一遍<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>千问发布会，确实有点震撼。</p><p>对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>过去大半年重投布局的AI和WAIMAI早晚会合流这件事有预期，只不过没想到这么快。这也意味着在2026年，消费市场的变局将以超乎想象的方式开启。</p><p>千问App发布会上，吴嘉对着手机说了一句“帮我点40杯<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">霸王茶姬</a>的伯牙绝弦”，几秒内完成选店、下单、支付，骑手半小时左右把奶茶送到现场。</p><p>这是一个很具体、很难伪装的演示。</p><p>虽然目前千问接入淘宝闪购、支付宝AI付，还处在公测和灰度验证阶段，但从行业视角看，这种“现场点、现场到”的展示，已经完全跑通从理解到执行，再到支付技术闭环。这属于一套可复制、可扩展的能力框架，一旦体验稳定，未来导流弹性会非常大。</p><p>特别是放到外卖这个高频场景，用户入口在迁移，或者说交互习惯，从“点选操作”迁移到“自然语言对话”。作为淘宝闪购的竞争对手们，如果看了这个发布会，肯定是很难坐得住了。</p><p>外卖的胜负逻辑开始改变</p><p>在这之前，讲外卖行业上半场，核心比的是两套能力：一套叫“履约密度”（骑手、站点、路径），一套叫“页面效率”（搜索、筛选、优惠、推荐）。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>长期强在前者，抢市场的话铁军地推，大家也默认“外卖就是这套游戏”。</p><p>现在千问接入淘宝闪购之后，感觉在不远、且可预见的下个消费周期，游戏规则多了一层——用户第一步不一定要先打开外卖App了，先打开大概率是一个对话框，而且这个对话框是谁不重要，把需求交给系统完成就行了。</p><p>这完全颠覆了推荐流那套逻辑，要知道包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>在内的很多平台，都是按照这套逻辑建立起来的商业赚钱模式，过去几年死磕的“列表页优化”，这种边际价值会指数级下降。</p><p>举个例子，比如我正在减重，“想点一份低脂晚餐，别太辣，30分钟内到”，在传统App里基本要靠自己筛店、翻菜单、看评价、算配送时长，还需要翻一下自己卡包里面哪些券可以用，凑个单什么的，这一套操作任务下来十几分钟就出去了。</p><p>但是这种个性化相对复杂的需求，交给AI能给你秒回，以一次性把意图拆解成约束条件，再去匹配供给。</p><p>过去讲用户需求，但很多做产品的人其实都有个共识，用户其实有时候也不知道自己需要的是什么，本质上就只有个意图。</p><p>现在外卖场景，用户侧从“操作任务”变成“表达意图”，竞争就被抬到更高的维度：谁理解得更准、执行得更稳、闭环更短，未来谁就更容易把用户习惯锁进来。</p><p>虽然现在只是雏形，离成熟的体验终态肯定还有一段距离，但这带来的想象力和前沿性已经足够惊人。</p><p>甚至称之为是整个市场升维到下个时代的“奇点”都不为过。</p><p>支付闭环，关键是要打穿“最后一公里”</p><p>AI点外卖并不稀奇，关键的是这玩意能端内完成交易闭环。</p><p>像AI智能体给出来购物建议之类的，其实国外很多大模型都有雏形，很多智能体能推荐、能对话，给你各种购物、机票、订餐建议等等，但几乎都会卡在最后一步。要么跳转，要么让用户自己去跳转付钱。</p><p>这一步对外卖这种高频场景很致命。因为外卖转化漏斗里，步骤带来犹豫，跳转就是流失。</p><p>阿里这次把“支付宝AI付”开放给千问做系统级打通，用户授权后，支付可以在千问对话界面内完成，全程不需要跳到别的App。看发布会信息里提到，AI付让操作步骤减少超过60%。</p><p>从商业效率讲，同样的流量、同样的意图，成交率必然会因为链路变短而提高。</p><p>另外还有个容易被忽视的量：千问C端上线两个月，月活已经突破1亿。</p><p>哪怕仅仅把千问当一个“对话入口”，也不算小众产品了，已经具备规模化导流的可能性。而对淘宝闪购来说，这相当于多了一条用户进入路径，而且这条路径天然带“意图表达”的强信号，转化质量也更高。</p><p>优先拿到下个时代的流量船票，这个会让对手真的很难跟。</p><p>闪购的优势正在持续放大</p><p>结合最近阿里释放出来的消息看，淘宝闪购本身这块业务的战略位置是不断抬高的，而且属于长期主义，不是那种“活动冲量、停了就掉”的阶段。据此前1月8日前后流传的FY26Q3（12月季度）业绩前瞻纪要，闪购业绩表现稳中向好。</p><p>市场流传的口径是，12月季度淘宝闪购GMV份额继续增长，订单结构持续改善，AOV保持增长；同时提到非餐即时零售进展快，媒体也报道非餐订单量稳定在日均1000万单级别。</p><p>当时我比较关注的一个点是，亏损收敛速度快于竞对，市场预期亏损约200亿这一档。</p><p>这套逻辑下来看，淘宝闪购是要把结构往更可持续的方向推，现在这个叠加AI入口，感觉效果会更明显。</p><p>千问接入闪购，能够充当“放大器”的角色，对闪购业务本身结构会进一步重塑，把低效的选择过程交给系统，提升成交转化；把复杂需求拆解成高价值订单，提升结构质量。</p><p>如果把这部分预期加进去，亏损可能来到前瞻预期的下沿，甚至200亿以下。</p><p>美团的压力</p><p>个人感觉，美团现在面对的压力，其实已经不只是“有没有AI点外卖”这么简单了。</p><p>阿里这次做的，并不是给闪购加个聊天功能，而是把模型、算力、支付、履约和消费场景整合成了一套能真正跑起来的系统，直接落在外卖这种高频业务上。</p><p>闪购本身就是高度结构化的场景：商家匹配、库存判断、履约路径、支付确认，原本就有完整的数据和流程体系，现在交给AI做的是“理解需求+调度系统”。</p><p>而这背后，是千问，是阿里过去几年持续重投入堆出来的基础设施。</p><p>市场统计显示，过去四个季度阿里在AI和云相关资本开支上累计接近1200亿元人民币，同期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>大概在700–1000亿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>约300–500亿，阿里在国内投入力度是最高的，而且管理层还明确提出未来三年投入3800亿用于AI相关建设，内部甚至认为这个数字偏保守。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a> 给的Capex预期是4600亿。</p><p>通义千问作为国内最早一批开源的大模型体系，已经覆盖文本、多模态、代码、Agent等多个方向，并在 阿里云 上形成了成熟的推理和部署能力。官方披露的数据里，相关模型下载量早就过亿，企业级调用规模也在持续放量。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a> 在1月的最新研报里提到，中国AI产业正在从“算力炒作”转向“应用落地定价”，真正有价值的是那些既有庞大用户基础，又能把模型能力转化为商业效率的平台型公司。阿里凭借 云计算 和模型能力的结合，被认为是国内AI落地能力最强的赋能者之一。</p><p>阿里这几年在算力、模型训练、推理服务和企业级AI平台上的资本开支一直维持高位，这些都是重<span>资产</span>、长周期工程，本质上是在为“AI原生业务形态”提前铺路。而外卖这种高频、标准化、可量化的场景，正好是AI最容易体现效率优势的地方。</p><p>反过来看美团，履约网络和本地服务密度依然是它现在的核心优势，这一点不会变。但在“AI作为入口和决策中枢”的新维度上，美团需要补的不是一个功能，而是一整套体系：模型能力、支付协同、跨场景数据整合，以及把AI真正嵌入业务流程的工程能力。这种差距，靠几次产品更新很难追平。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>淘宝闪购背靠着AI把竞争完全升维了，这让美团怎么接？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n淘宝闪购背靠着AI把竞争完全升维了，这让美团怎么接？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-16 09:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260116092752a4c9a9a0&s=b><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>回头又看了一遍阿里千问发布会，确实有点震撼。对阿里过去大半年重投布局的AI和WAIMAI早晚会合流这件事有预期，只不过没想到这么快。这也意味着在2026年，消费市场的变局将以超乎想象的方式开启。千问App发布会上，吴嘉对着手机说了一句“帮我点40杯霸王茶姬的伯牙绝弦”，几秒内完成选店、下单、支付，骑手半小时左右把奶茶送到现场。这是一个很具体、很难伪装的演示。虽然目前千问接入淘宝闪购、支付宝AI付，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260116092752a4c9a9a0&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU0029874905.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" INC","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0577902611.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I 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(M)"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260116092752a4c9a9a0&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2603930038","content_text":"回头又看了一遍阿里千问发布会，确实有点震撼。对阿里过去大半年重投布局的AI和WAIMAI早晚会合流这件事有预期，只不过没想到这么快。这也意味着在2026年，消费市场的变局将以超乎想象的方式开启。千问App发布会上，吴嘉对着手机说了一句“帮我点40杯霸王茶姬的伯牙绝弦”，几秒内完成选店、下单、支付，骑手半小时左右把奶茶送到现场。这是一个很具体、很难伪装的演示。虽然目前千问接入淘宝闪购、支付宝AI付，还处在公测和灰度验证阶段，但从行业视角看，这种“现场点、现场到”的展示，已经完全跑通从理解到执行，再到支付技术闭环。这属于一套可复制、可扩展的能力框架，一旦体验稳定，未来导流弹性会非常大。特别是放到外卖这个高频场景，用户入口在迁移，或者说交互习惯，从“点选操作”迁移到“自然语言对话”。作为淘宝闪购的竞争对手们，如果看了这个发布会，肯定是很难坐得住了。外卖的胜负逻辑开始改变在这之前，讲外卖行业上半场，核心比的是两套能力：一套叫“履约密度”（骑手、站点、路径），一套叫“页面效率”（搜索、筛选、优惠、推荐）。美团长期强在前者，抢市场的话铁军地推，大家也默认“外卖就是这套游戏”。现在千问接入淘宝闪购之后，感觉在不远、且可预见的下个消费周期，游戏规则多了一层——用户第一步不一定要先打开外卖App了，先打开大概率是一个对话框，而且这个对话框是谁不重要，把需求交给系统完成就行了。这完全颠覆了推荐流那套逻辑，要知道包括美团在内的很多平台，都是按照这套逻辑建立起来的商业赚钱模式，过去几年死磕的“列表页优化”，这种边际价值会指数级下降。举个例子，比如我正在减重，“想点一份低脂晚餐，别太辣，30分钟内到”，在传统App里基本要靠自己筛店、翻菜单、看评价、算配送时长，还需要翻一下自己卡包里面哪些券可以用，凑个单什么的，这一套操作任务下来十几分钟就出去了。但是这种个性化相对复杂的需求，交给AI能给你秒回，以一次性把意图拆解成约束条件，再去匹配供给。过去讲用户需求，但很多做产品的人其实都有个共识，用户其实有时候也不知道自己需要的是什么，本质上就只有个意图。现在外卖场景，用户侧从“操作任务”变成“表达意图”，竞争就被抬到更高的维度：谁理解得更准、执行得更稳、闭环更短，未来谁就更容易把用户习惯锁进来。虽然现在只是雏形，离成熟的体验终态肯定还有一段距离，但这带来的想象力和前沿性已经足够惊人。甚至称之为是整个市场升维到下个时代的“奇点”都不为过。支付闭环，关键是要打穿“最后一公里”AI点外卖并不稀奇，关键的是这玩意能端内完成交易闭环。像AI智能体给出来购物建议之类的，其实国外很多大模型都有雏形，很多智能体能推荐、能对话，给你各种购物、机票、订餐建议等等，但几乎都会卡在最后一步。要么跳转，要么让用户自己去跳转付钱。这一步对外卖这种高频场景很致命。因为外卖转化漏斗里，步骤带来犹豫，跳转就是流失。阿里这次把“支付宝AI付”开放给千问做系统级打通，用户授权后，支付可以在千问对话界面内完成，全程不需要跳到别的App。看发布会信息里提到，AI付让操作步骤减少超过60%。从商业效率讲，同样的流量、同样的意图，成交率必然会因为链路变短而提高。另外还有个容易被忽视的量：千问C端上线两个月，月活已经突破1亿。哪怕仅仅把千问当一个“对话入口”，也不算小众产品了，已经具备规模化导流的可能性。而对淘宝闪购来说，这相当于多了一条用户进入路径，而且这条路径天然带“意图表达”的强信号，转化质量也更高。优先拿到下个时代的流量船票，这个会让对手真的很难跟。闪购的优势正在持续放大结合最近阿里释放出来的消息看，淘宝闪购本身这块业务的战略位置是不断抬高的，而且属于长期主义，不是那种“活动冲量、停了就掉”的阶段。据此前1月8日前后流传的FY26Q3（12月季度）业绩前瞻纪要，闪购业绩表现稳中向好。市场流传的口径是，12月季度淘宝闪购GMV份额继续增长，订单结构持续改善，AOV保持增长；同时提到非餐即时零售进展快，媒体也报道非餐订单量稳定在日均1000万单级别。当时我比较关注的一个点是，亏损收敛速度快于竞对，市场预期亏损约200亿这一档。这套逻辑下来看，淘宝闪购是要把结构往更可持续的方向推，现在这个叠加AI入口，感觉效果会更明显。千问接入闪购，能够充当“放大器”的角色，对闪购业务本身结构会进一步重塑，把低效的选择过程交给系统，提升成交转化；把复杂需求拆解成高价值订单，提升结构质量。如果把这部分预期加进去，亏损可能来到前瞻预期的下沿，甚至200亿以下。美团的压力个人感觉，美团现在面对的压力，其实已经不只是“有没有AI点外卖”这么简单了。阿里这次做的，并不是给闪购加个聊天功能，而是把模型、算力、支付、履约和消费场景整合成了一套能真正跑起来的系统，直接落在外卖这种高频业务上。闪购本身就是高度结构化的场景：商家匹配、库存判断、履约路径、支付确认，原本就有完整的数据和流程体系，现在交给AI做的是“理解需求+调度系统”。而这背后，是千问，是阿里过去几年持续重投入堆出来的基础设施。市场统计显示，过去四个季度阿里在AI和云相关资本开支上累计接近1200亿元人民币，同期腾讯大概在700–1000亿，百度约300–500亿，阿里在国内投入力度是最高的，而且管理层还明确提出未来三年投入3800亿用于AI相关建设，内部甚至认为这个数字偏保守。 高盛 给的Capex预期是4600亿。通义千问作为国内最早一批开源的大模型体系，已经覆盖文本、多模态、代码、Agent等多个方向，并在 阿里云 上形成了成熟的推理和部署能力。官方披露的数据里，相关模型下载量早就过亿，企业级调用规模也在持续放量。摩根士丹利 在1月的最新研报里提到，中国AI产业正在从“算力炒作”转向“应用落地定价”，真正有价值的是那些既有庞大用户基础，又能把模型能力转化为商业效率的平台型公司。阿里凭借 云计算 和模型能力的结合，被认为是国内AI落地能力最强的赋能者之一。阿里这几年在算力、模型训练、推理服务和企业级AI平台上的资本开支一直维持高位，这些都是重资产、长周期工程，本质上是在为“AI原生业务形态”提前铺路。而外卖这种高频、标准化、可量化的场景，正好是AI最容易体现效率优势的地方。反过来看美团，履约网络和本地服务密度依然是它现在的核心优势，这一点不会变。但在“AI作为入口和决策中枢”的新维度上，美团需要补的不是一个功能，而是一整套体系：模型能力、支付协同、跨场景数据整合，以及把AI真正嵌入业务流程的工程能力。这种差距，靠几次产品更新很难追平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"BABA":1.95,"03690":1.91,"MPNGY":1.91,"ALBmain":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"09988":1.95,"METmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}