Omdia：PC出货增长9%，存储阴影笼罩2026_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Omdia：PC出货增长9%，存储阴影笼罩2026

半导体产业纵横01-12

存储涨价，戴尔、惠普等PC OEM厂商怎么办？Omdia最新研究显示，2025年第四季度台式机、笔记本电脑和工作站的总出货量增长10.1%，达到7500万台。这使得2025年全年PC出货量达到2.795亿台，比2024年增长9.2%。笔记本电脑（包括移动工作站）第四季度出货量达到5860万台，全年出货量达到2.204亿台，2025年同比增长8%。台式机（包括台式工作站）第四季度出货量为1620万台...

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OEM厂商怎么办？Omdia最新研究显示，2025年第四季度台式机、笔记本电脑和工作站的总出货量增长10.1%，达到7500万台。这使得2025年全年PC出货量达到2.795亿台，比2024年增长9.2%。笔记本电脑（包括移动工作站）第四季度出货量达到5860万台，全年出货量达到2.204亿台，2025年同比增长8%。台式机（包括台式工作站）第四季度出货量为1620万台，使得2025年全年出货量达到5900万台，比上年增长14.4%。尽管2025年PC市场整体表现良好，但内存和存储设备的供应趋紧，由此带来的价格上涨压力从年中开始显现。2025年12月，PC厂商开始发出价格上涨的信号。加之无法确保充足的供应，这已经抑制了2026年的出货量预期。“2025年第一季度至第四季度，主流PC内存和存储设备的成本上涨了40%至70%，最终导致成本增加转嫁给消费者，” Omdia首席分析师Ben Yeh表示。“鉴于2026年供应紧张，业界正着重发展高端产品，并减少中低端配置，以保障利润。”Yeh补充道：“2026年，由于设备更换需求尚未完全缓解，供应侧压力将更加显著，供应将无法完全满足需求。实际出货量将取决于供应商的内存和存储采购能力以及谈判筹码；除了规模之外，他们的过往业绩和与供应商的信誉将是决定其能否成功应对这一复杂时期的关键因素。”Omdia于2025年11月对B2B渠道合作伙伴进行的一项调查显示，当被问及“您预计您的PC业务在2026年的表现与2025年相比如何”时，57%的受访者预测2026年将实现增长，这表明，健康的需求环境将为那些能够最好地管理供应的供应商带来强劲的机遇。联想在2025年第四季度和全年PC市场均保持领先地位，环比增长14.4%，全年出货量达7100万台，同比增长14.6%。惠普位居第二，2025年第四季度PC出货量为1540万台，环比和同比增长均实现增长。戴尔在2025年第四季度表现最为强劲，同比增长26%。全年出货量达到4200万台，较2024年增长7%，同时市场份额也同比增长两个百分点。苹果保持第四位，并成为全年增长最快的厂商。该公司全年出货量达2800万台，同比增长16.4%。华硕在季度和全年排名中均位列前五，第四季度出货量为 530 万台，全年出货量为 2000 万台，这得益于假日季 7% 的增长。大摩调研：内存价格飙升，安卓和PC都遇冲击，但苹果今年不涨价最近，摩根士丹利Erik W Woodring研究团队在结束中国台湾之行后发表研报，指出2026年内存价格正以超预期的速度飙升，预计第一季度DRAM合约价格将环比上涨40-70%，NAND价格将上涨30-35%，远超此前预期。这一成本压力将给整个硬件行业带来深远影响。大多数OEM厂商将在2026年上半年大幅提价以应对成本压力，可能导致安卓手机和Windows PC全年出货量下滑。然而苹果因提前锁定较优惠的内存价格，决定维持产品定价不变，有望在2026年实现iPhone和Mac市场份额增长。硬盘供应短缺加剧，未来12个月供需缺口扩大至200EB。服务器厂商如戴尔和惠普可能即将启动大规模裁员以保护运营利润率。根据TrendForce最新预测，DRAM合约价格在2026年第一季度预计将环比上涨40-70%，而此前预期仅为15-23%的涨幅。NAND方面，合约价格预计上涨30-35%，同样远超此前预期的15-25%。这一成本压力正在迫使除苹果外的几乎所有硬件OEM厂商在2026年上半年大幅提价。研报指出，价格上涨预期引发了客户提前下单，预计将带来较强的2025年四季度和2026年一季度业绩表现，但随后将导致2026年下半年需求疲软。一家服务器OEM厂商预计，2026年一季度通用服务器出货量将环比增长5%，远好于通常10-15%的环比下降季节性规律。PC市场也将出现类似的上半年强、下半年弱的季节性特征。摩根士丹利认为全年来看，安卓智能手机和Windows PC在2026年的出货量预计将出现下滑。企业客户的通用服务器需求预计将同比持平或下降。摩根士丹利认为不断上升的成本压力将迫使戴尔、惠普和HPE等OEM厂商大幅裁员以保护营业利润率。在产品策略上，PC OEM厂商正在降低物料清单成本。许多512GB存储配置正被256GB选项取代。厂商对入门级机型保持价格不变，通过与组件供应商分摊成本或采用更便宜的组件来维持盈利能力。在内存采购方面，戴尔凭借AI和通用服务器的内存需求，议价地位好于惠普。戴尔和联想愿意与内存制造商签订长期协议，而惠普仍犹豫不决，这使其在获取内存供应方面处于不利地位。内存制造商优先保障大型PC OEM(戴尔、惠普、联想、华硕)的供应，小型厂商更难获得供应，面临现货价格风险。*声明：本文系原作者创作。文章内容系其个人观点，我方转载仅为分享与讨论，不代表我方赞成或认同，如有异议，请联系后台。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}