2026年CES定调行业走向：AI 算力需求外溢引发存储“大地震”，供应链短缺恐贯穿全年_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2026年CES定调行业走向：AI 算力需求外溢引发存储“大地震”，供应链短缺恐贯穿全年

智通财经01-12

智通财经APP注意到，今年的 CES 消费电子展发布了多项引人注目的消息，其中包括戴尔(DELL.US)、英特尔(INTC.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)和 AMD (AMD.US)等行业巨头。但令观察人士最终意识到的是，由人工智能需求激增导致的内存和存储严重短缺，可能会影响 2026 年余下时间的走势。Wedbush Securities 分析师马特·布莱森表示，许多动态随机存取存储器(...

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(AMD.US)等行业巨头。但令观察人士最终意识到的是，由人工智能需求激增导致的内存和存储严重短缺，可能会影响 2026 年余下时间的走势。Wedbush Securities 分析师马特·布莱森表示，许多动态随机存取存储器(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391352.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1316542783.SGD","symbol_name":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391352.html","article_id":"2602156522","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602156522","pubTimestamp":1768176008,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"但令观察人士最终意识到的是，由人工智能需求激增导致的内存和存储严重短缺，可能会影响 2026 年余下时间的走势。他指出，“供应与订单之间存在巨大缺口”，这一缺口在全年内可能会进一步扩大，甚至可能持续到 2027 年。布莱森说，对于由陈立武领导的这家公司来说，18A 工艺的成功发布将是“迈出的重要积极一步”。本月初，英特尔宣布已交付首批 18A 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年余下时间的走势。Wedbush Securities 分析师马特·布莱森表示，许多动态随机存取存储器(DRAM)第一季度的合约价格尚未最终确定，但供应商仍期望实现 50% 或更高的增长。布莱森在给客户的一份报告中写道，“超大规模云服务商似乎吸干了市场所有新增的产能，随着支持这些客户的产能转移，以及对更高合约价的预期升高，似乎已经推高了二级市场的价格大幅上涨，”不过，布莱森补充说，对较小客户的干扰正在“缓解”，因为目前预计个人电脑(PC)的年同比降幅仅为中个位数。尽管如此，一旦价格上涨最终确定，这些问题可能会获得更多关注。布莱森补充称，价格上涨最终还可能影响部分服务器客户，因为服务器的交付周期正在“激增”。在可能受益于 DRAM 价格大幅上涨的公司中，包括美光(MU.US)和闪迪(SNDK.US)。布莱森表示，由于闪迪已从苹果供应链中移除，它现在的对比基数较低，其定价预计将“显著优于”行业表现，50% 的涨幅被视为基本情况。布莱森补充说，其他潜在受益者还包括 Pure Storage (PSTG.US)和慧荣科技(SIMO.US)。英伟达的影响 英伟达庞大的体量意味着它的任何举动都必然会对半导体行业产生显著影响。虽然它也可能从内存供应紧张中受益(因为其性能常规性地领先于竞争对手)，但它也可能进一步加剧内存空间的压力。布莱森解释道，“英伟达的新存储层(通过 BlueField-4 连接)似乎将显著增加整体存储需求,我们遇到的一项粗略计算显示，新存储层使 AI 工作负载需求增加了 40% 以上。”BlueField-4 于 2025 年 10 月发布，结合了英伟达 Grace CPU 和英伟达 ConnectX-9 网络产品，旨在提升算力并帮助支持 AI 工厂。硬盘需求“强劲” 布莱森表示，西部数据(WDC.US)和希捷(STX.US)所在的硬盘驱动器(HDD)领域需求“强劲”。他指出，“供应与订单之间存在巨大缺口”，这一缺口在全年内可能会进一步扩大，甚至可能持续到 2027 年。因此，他认为价格趋势可能会走高，随着 2028 年的合同已在谈判中，云服务提供商面临的短缺问题正逐渐显现。对英特尔和 AMD 的影响? 尽管内存和存储价格上涨使几家公司受益，但显然也对需求产生了一些负面影响。多家 PC 和手机制造商已经削减了制造预期，行业目前预计这两个市场将出现低个位数的下降，而此前预期为低个位数的增长。鉴于英特尔和 AMD 是两家最大的以 PC 为核心的半导体公司，任何需求的下降都可能波及到它们。对于英特尔整体而言，内存成本上升是一个警示信号，但该公司还有其他对其影响更大的领域，尤其是其代工业务。布莱森说，对于由陈立武领导的这家公司来说，18A 工艺的成功发布将是“迈出的重要积极一步”。本月初，英特尔宣布已交付首批 18A 产品。尽管如此，任何 PC 制造量的削减对英特尔来说都是“重大的担忧点”，因为这会影响到出货量、产能利用率以及该细分市场的定价，而该板块约占其销售额的 60%。布莱森补充说，鉴于英特尔也涉及服务器市场，服务器交付周期的任何延长也可能带来负面影响。布莱森认为，对于 AMD 来说，内存价格上涨的影响则呈现出更为复杂的局面，因为目前的焦点主要集中在其 AI 加速器产品组合上。“……我们认为，如果 PC 需求因内存价格上涨而恶化，AMD 必然面临一定风险(我们对服务器的担忧较少，因为 AMD 在这方面可能会继续获得市场份额，且 AMD 在云服务提供商需求中占据较高权重)，”布莱森解释道。他继续说道：“但我们也认为，在可预见的未来，AMD 的股价走势将由该公司预期的 AI GPU 性能(而非其他指标)驱动。在这方面，任何恢复向中国出货的能力都可能带来即时收益(同样，我们目前尚不清楚美国许可证发放及/或中国批准购买美国 AI 芯片的最终时间表)。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}