台积电担忧芯片过剩？马斯克：他们是对的，电力液冷都跟不上_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

台积电担忧芯片过剩？马斯克：他们是对的，电力液冷都跟不上

华尔街见闻01-07

近日马斯克表示，台积电对芯片产能过剩的担忧"是对的"。他预测，AI行业的限制因素将从芯片制造转向"把芯片开启运行"，这一转变的核心瓶颈在于电力供应、变压器配置和冷却系统部署。 1月6日，马斯克与奇点大学执行主席彼得·迪亚曼迪斯（Peter Diamandis）和Link Ventures创始人戴维·布伦丁 (David Blundin)开展了一场关于AI未来的深度对话。他指出，当前芯片产能正呈指数...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762726><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日马斯克表示，台积电对芯片产能过剩的担忧\"是对的\"。他预测，AI行业的限制因素将从芯片制造转向\"把芯片开启运行\"，这一转变的核心瓶颈在于电力供应、变压器配置和冷却系统部署。\n1月6日，马斯克与奇点大学执行主席彼得·迪亚曼迪斯（Peter Diamandis）和Link Ventures创始人戴维·布伦丁 (David Blundin)开展了一场关于AI未来的深度对话。他指出，当前芯片产能正呈指数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762726\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0878005551.USD","symbol_name":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) 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Musk: They are right, electric liquid cooling can't keep up","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768992322e663317acd6a9a17a48cb6a","symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1.95},"content_text":"近日马斯克表示，台积电对芯片产能过剩的担忧\"是对的\"。他预测，AI行业的限制因素将从芯片制造转向\"把芯片开启运行\"，这一转变的核心瓶颈在于电力供应、变压器配置和冷却系统部署。\n1月6日，马斯克与奇点大学执行主席彼得·迪亚曼迪斯（Peter Diamandis）和Link Ventures创始人戴维·布伦丁 (David Blundin)开展了一场关于AI未来的深度对话。他指出，当前芯片产能正呈指数级增长，而支撑其运行的能源基础设施却只能线性扩张。当两条曲线交叉时，大量高性能AI芯片将因缺乏配套的电力转换设备和冷却系统而无法投入使用。\n这一判断直指当前AI基础设施建设被严重低估的问题。对于投资者而言，这意味着AI算力竞赛的焦点正在从芯片采购转向能源基础设施建设能力。\n电力成为AI部署的\"速率限制\"\n在对话中，马斯克进一步揭示了AI基础设施中电力瓶颈的具体形态。他强调，部署AI芯片绝非“将GPU运抵发电厂”那么简单，而是需要同步解决吉瓦级供电、高压电转换及高效散热系统三大核心问题。\n马斯克特别指出，整个数据中心行业正经历从风冷到液冷的关键转型，并警告这一过程蕴含巨大风险。他称：\n\n“这对数据中心来说是一次根本性转变，他们长期依赖风冷。一旦液冷管道发生破裂——比如在数据中心里爆裂一根水管，就可能导致价值10亿美元的损失。”\n\n他以xAI在孟菲斯的“巨像2号”项目为例说明实际挑战：尽管项目选址紧邻多条300千伏高压线路，但完成接入仍需耗时约一年。为赶在2025年1月中旬前实现1吉瓦训练集群上线，团队不得不临时组合多台10至50兆瓦不等的燃气轮机作为过渡电源，并借助大量Megapack电池组进行电力调平。\n芯片产能与电力供应的\"曲线交叉\"\n当被问及是否认同台积电对产能过剩的担忧时，马斯克给出了肯定的答复：“我虽不确定他们的理由，但结论是对的。”\n他指出，关键在于识别“每个时期的限制性因素”，并预测到2026年第三季度（即约9-12个月后），核心瓶颈将从芯片制造转向“使芯片运行起来”的能力。\n这一判断源于两条发展轨迹的错位：AI芯片产能正以指数级速度扩张，而支撑其运行的电力基础设施却仅能线性增长。马斯克强调：“若芯片产出呈指数增长，而电力供应只能缓慢线性提升，两条曲线必将交汇。”这意味着芯片的制造速度可能远超其实际可被部署并通电运行的速度。\n对此，戴维·布伦丁提出不同观点，认为即便台积电将GPU产量从2000万片提升至4000万片，市场仍将设法解决供电问题。但马斯克坚持，任何电力转换环节或冷却系统的缺失，都会导致芯片无法被真正启用，从而从根本上抑制实际需求与采购行为。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}