交通运输行业动态报告物流：2025年末铜价震荡上行 2026年炼油、页岩油、天然气领域凸显红利_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

交通运输行业动态报告物流：2025年末铜价震荡上行 2026年炼油、页岩油、天然气领域凸显红利

中信建投证券01-06

核心观点1）2025 年末铜价震荡上行，全年涨幅显著。12 月29 日现货铜价突破10 万元/吨至101053.33 元/吨，31 日报99180 元/吨，较年初上涨34.34%。市场核心逻辑为供需紧平衡叠加宏观影响，短期或高位震荡，长期走势取决于供需格局与宏观环境变化。2）预计2026 年原油步入供应过剩周期，炼油、页岩油、天然气三大领域凸显红利。2026 年全球原油市场将正式进入供应过剩周期，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

暂无评论

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601868536?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-06 00:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2601868536","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"交通运输行业动态报告物流：2025年末铜价震荡上行 2026年炼油、页岩油、天然气领域凸显红利","media":"中信建投证券","content":"<div>\n<p>核心观点1）2025 年末铜价震荡上行，全年涨幅显著。12 月29 日现货铜价突破10 万元/吨至101053.33 元/吨，31 日报99180 元/吨，较年初上涨34.34%。市场核心逻辑为供需紧平衡叠加宏观影响，短期或高位震荡，长期走势取决于供需格局与宏观环境变化。2）预计2026 年原油步入供应过剩周期，炼油、页岩油、天然气三大领域凸显红利。2026 年全球原油市场将正式进入供应过剩周期，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106114707a4a1811b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>交通运输行业动态报告物流：2025年末铜价震荡上行 2026年炼油、页岩油、天然气领域凸显红利</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n交通运输行业动态报告物流：2025年末铜价震荡上行 2026年炼油、页岩油、天然气领域凸显红利\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-06 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106114707a4a1811b&s=b><strong>中信建投证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点1）2025 年末铜价震荡上行，全年涨幅显著。12 月29 日现货铜价突破10 万元/吨至101053.33 元/吨，31 日报99180 元/吨，较年初上涨34.34%。市场核心逻辑为供需紧平衡叠加宏观影响，短期或高位震荡，长期走势取决于供需格局与宏观环境变化。2）预计2026 年原油步入供应过剩周期，炼油、页岩油、天然气三大领域凸显红利。2026 年全球原油市场将正式进入供应过剩周期，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106114707a4a1811b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1589","symbol_name":"北水核心资产","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106114707a4a1811b&s=b","article_id":"2601868536","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106114707a4a1811b&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601868536","pubTimestamp":1767628800,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"核心观点1）2025 年末铜价震荡上行，全年涨幅显著。2）预计2026 年原油步入供应过剩周期，炼油、页岩油、天然气三大领域凸显红利。2026 年全球原油市场将正式进入供应过剩周期，IEA 预计过剩规模达384 万桶/日，油价中枢系统性下移成为主线。炼油、页岩油、天然气领域凸显结构性红利，欧美柴油裂解价差有望维持高位，美国二叠纪盆地产量成供应压舱石，天然气受LNG 出口扩容与电力需求激增推动成并购热点。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"80883":"中国海洋石油-R","BK1589":"北水核心资产","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK1528":"石油股票概念","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","00358":"江西铜业股份","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0516422440.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0516422952.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (EUR) ACC","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","00883":"中国海洋石油","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU2148510915.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"R\" (USD) ACC","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","BK1238":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD"},"translate_title":"Transportation Industry Dynamic Report Logistics: Copper prices fluctuate upward at the end of 2025, and the refining, shale oil, and natural gas fields will highlight dividends in 2026","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80883":0.6,"00883":0.9,"00358":0.9},"content_text":"核心观点1）2025 年末铜价震荡上行，全年涨幅显著。12 月29 日现货铜价突破10 万元/吨至101053.33 元/吨，31 日报99180 元/吨，较年初上涨34.34%。市场核心逻辑为供需紧平衡叠加宏观影响，短期或高位震荡，长期走势取决于供需格局与宏观环境变化。2）预计2026 年原油步入供应过剩周期，炼油、页岩油、天然气三大领域凸显红利。2026 年全球原油市场将正式进入供应过剩周期，IEA 预计过剩规模达384 万桶/日，油价中枢系统性下移成为主线。但地缘冲突、制裁与库存扰动仍将带来阶段性交易机会。真正的结构性机会正从“油价”转向“公司”：炼油端裂解价差高位运行、美国页岩油在60 美元附近展现产量韧性，以及LNG扩张与电力需求推动天然气并购升温，构成低油价环境下的核心受益方向。动态信息行业综述：从交运各子板块相对沪深300 的表现来看，本周（2025年12 月29 日-2026 年1 月2 日）交运板块整体下跌。本周物流综合板块下跌0.68%，其中原材料供应链服务板块下跌4.75%。物流供应链：2025 年末铜价震荡上行，2026 年炼油、页岩油、天然气领域凸显红利2025 年末铜价震荡上行，一度突破10 万元/吨关键关口。据监测数据，12 月29 日现货铜价报101053.33 元/吨，单日涨幅3.24%，12 月31 日报99180 元/吨，较年初73830 元/吨上涨34.34%。当前市场运行核心逻辑为供需紧平衡叠加宏观环境影响：供应端全球铜矿减产超3%，2026 年新增产能预计不足50 万吨，且库存向美国集中加剧亚洲区域供应紧张；需求端新能源、AI、人形机器人形成新增需求支撑， 2026 年算力基建或带动铜需求激增45%。短期来看，铜价或受获利资金兑现、年末资金回笼影响呈现高位震荡，长期走势仍取决于供需格局演变与宏观环境变化。2026 年原油步入供应过剩周期，油价中枢下移但机会转向结构性领域。国际能源署数据显示，2026 年全球石油日供应过剩或达384 万桶，供需宽松格局主导全年交易逻辑，美原油期货已呈现冲高回落的疲弱走势，预判油价需通过下行完成供需再平衡。这一格局下的机会转移由多重核心因素支撑：（1）短期地缘风险、美国油轮限制政策及EIA 库存超预期去化形成利多扰动，带来阶段性交易机会。（2）炼油、页岩油、天然气领域凸显结构性红利，欧美柴油裂解价差有望维持高位，美国二叠纪盆地产量成供应压舱石，天然气受LNG 出口扩容与电力需求激增推动成并购热点。（3）大型油企战略转向上游与天然气布局，以现金流稳健为核心优化运营，上市页岩油企业通过降本增效保产量，对冲油价下行压力，重塑行业竞争格局。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}