2026年，哪些大消息有望点燃市场情绪？一文读懂美国大厂的“AI催化剂”_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2026年，哪些大消息有望点燃市场情绪？一文读懂美国大厂的“AI催化剂”

华尔街见闻01-06

在基础设施投资持续攀升的背景下，华尔街目前的焦点已从单纯的“军备竞赛”转向“商业化落地”。据追风交易台信息，美银在1月5日的报告中表示，2026年将是AI公告撼动市场的又一个关键年份。无论是芯片技术、前沿模型，还是用户数据和分发渠道，其重要性都在加剧。在基础设施投资持续攀升的背景下，AI能力依然是大盘互联网股的核心资产和估值驱动力。美银总结了潜在的重磅消息，这些消息可能在2026年改变竞争格局...

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Understand the \"AI catalyst\" of major American manufacturers in one article","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5888e5333a02ab2e9aa3129ff1f049bc","symbols_score_info":{"MACW.SI":0.6,"BKNG":1.83,"AAPL":0.72,"GOOGL":1.91,"UBER":1.85,"USAW.SI":0.6,"AMZN":1.93,"USJW.SI":0.6,"DASH":1.82,"META":1.9},"content_text":"在基础设施投资持续攀升的背景下，华尔街目前的焦点已从单纯的“军备竞赛”转向“商业化落地”。\n据追风交易台信息，美银在1月5日的报告中表示，2026年将是AI公告撼动市场的又一个关键年份。无论是芯片技术、前沿模型，还是用户数据和分发渠道，其重要性都在加剧。在基础设施投资持续攀升的背景下，AI能力依然是大盘互联网股的核心资产和估值驱动力。\n美银总结了潜在的重磅消息，这些消息可能在2026年改变竞争格局、货币化轨迹，成为投资者情绪的关键催化剂。\n\n 基准情景：七大潜在重磅消息或将重塑竞争格局\n\n美银认为以下事件在2026年发生的可能性较高，且直接关系到巨头的护城河与现金流：\n1. 亚马逊与OpenAI签署“代理商务”协议（Agentic Commerce） \n报告指出，鉴于亚马逊首次对OpenAI进行潜在投资的消息，以及谷歌在Gemini和智能代理平台方面的显著进展，亚马逊与OpenAI达成智能代理商务交易的可能性正在增加。\n任何协议都需要精心设计以保护亚马逊的Prime会员体系，并可能包括亚马逊与OpenAI的广告收入分成。\n分析师认为，一份结构良好的协议若能以有吸引力的费率保护广告业务，可能有助于减轻亚马逊零售业务的压力，同时适度增加谷歌的竞争担忧。\n2. 谷歌与苹果签署AI移动端合作协议 \nGemini 3.0已成为领先的前沿模型，而Android的AI能力已超越苹果iOS。\n在8月份反垄断裁决对谷歌有利后，有媒体报道称苹果正接近与谷歌达成授权Gemini以改造Siri的协议。这种移动合作关系可能使苹果加速其生态系统的AI功能开发，同时让谷歌扩大Gemini的消费者覆盖范围。\n分析师表示，虽然在一定程度上符合预期，但新的AI协议可能增强投资者对谷歌搜索分发和变现优势持久性的信心，推动估值倍数扩张。\n3. Meta在主要应用中推出AI视频创作工具 \n根据市场一致预期，Meta预计将在2026年的资本支出超过1000亿美元。这一支出水平意味着在内部AI能力和容量上的投入将大幅超过同行，而那些同行还需为其庞大的云业务增加容量。\n报告认为，Meta的部分AI能力可能专门用于用户AI工具，如AI视频生成工具。\n鉴于管理层对Meta AI应用上Vibes使用情况的积极评价，以及限制Sora等竞争工具吸引力的重要性，分析师预计Facebook和Instagram可能在2026年添加AI视频生成标签。通过分发引人注目的新AI视频生成工具，投资者可能期待Meta使用率和变现能力的提升。\n4. Uber与亚洲主要OEM签署L4级自动驾驶承诺 \nUber首席执行官最近访问亚洲，意图推动自动驾驶车辆部署扩展至\"10多个市场\"。\n报告认为，Uber可能在2026年宣布与英伟达等自动驾驶软件提供商或主要新车企的合作，其中包括在Uber平台上的车辆承诺。\n分析师指出，虽然包含车辆承诺的新车企协议（可能在2028年时间框架）不太可能改变近期美国的竞争担忧，但对于与Waymo和特斯拉的长期L4竞争是积极的，并可能促使其他车企加速L4开发。\n5. Booking推出基于聊天的预订功能 \n虽然Booking与谷歌在智能代理预订功能上有合作，但该公司一直在投资自己的AI能力（2025年投资计划的一部分，金额为1.7亿美元），并表示可能在2026年宣布新的AI能力。\n鉴于需要匹配竞争对手的产品，分析师认为Booking平台直接推出新的智能代理预订功能在2026年是可能的。如果Booking的基于聊天的预订功能与竞争对手的智能代理AI产品相当，推出可能减少直接流量损失的担忧。\n6. DoorDash扩大与自动驾驶伙伴的配送合作 \n2025年第四季度，DoorDash宣布与Waymo建立新的合作关系，在凤凰城都会区推出自动配送服务。\n该合作将首先从DashMart开始配送，但可能扩展到其他商家。随着2026年和2027年预计在多个新城市推出自动驾驶车辆，以及DoorDash增加投资支出，报告认为2026年在新都会区建立更多自动驾驶配送合作关系的可能性很大。\n分析师表示，虽然不期望自动驾驶配送合作公告会给DoorDash财务带来好处，但新协议可能有助于市场更看好自动化配送投资支出的长期收益。\n7. AI独角兽IPO定调板块估值 \n包括Barron's和Financial Times在内的各种媒体报道，将Anthropic、OpenAI和xAI等公司列为2026年潜在IPO候选者。\n关于收入积压、收入增长、利润率和盈利时间的财务披露可能对既是合作伙伴又是竞争对手的公开超大规模云服务商产生重大影响。此外，公开市场估值对AWS、谷歌云和Meta的AI投资估值具有重要意义。\n报告指出，媒体报道显示私有AI公司的收入倍数远高于公开公司倍数，成功的新AI IPO可能成为谷歌等定位良好的公开公司的催化剂。\n\n进阶博弈：若这些“小概率”事件发生，估值逻辑将变\n\n除了上述大概率事件，美银还列出了一些“进阶”情景。如果发生，将显著改变市场对公司技术实力的认知：\n亚马逊收购AI模型技术以提振Nova\n亚马逊的Nova模型目前落后于ChatGPT和Gemini。通过收购或“人才收购”（如Meta对Scale AI的操作）来获得前沿模型，虽财务回报滞后，但能迅速消除亚马逊在LLM（大语言模型）技术上掉队的巨大市场阴影。\nMeta向企业授权闭源LLM（Avocado）\n预计Meta将在2026年一季度发布Avocado模型。若该模型为闭源且性能强劲，Meta向企业授权该模型将创造新的收入流，帮助向华尔街证明其巨额AI资本支出的合理性。\n谷歌向企业出售TPU芯片\n如果谷歌将TPU的销售范围从云托管扩展到直接向企业出售（用于本地或混合部署），这将模糊硬件与软件巨头的界限，提升TPU的技术感知价值，可能推动谷歌估值倍数扩张。\nAirbnb与OpenAI/谷歌合作\n Airbnb若改变策略，利用其独特的房源库存与OpenAI或谷歌达成代理预订排他性协议，将带来增量流量并推动股价上行。\n\n极端假设：打破常规的战略大转弯与监管黑天鹅\n\n最后，美银提出了一些看似极不可能（Big Stretch），但一旦发生将引发剧烈波动的假设：\nMeta或许会授权外部前沿模型进行产品开发\n如果Meta自研模型表现不及预期，为了通过更快的上市速度降低成本，它可能转而授权外部模型。这将是战略上的重大转变，既可能因资本支出（Capex）降低而带来自由现金流增长，也可能引发对其长期技术能力的担忧。\n亚马逊授权引入ChatGPT或Gemini\n尽管存在巨大的竞争障碍，但若亚马逊为了AWS客户的模型选择多样性而引入竞争对手的模型到Bedrock平台，华尔街将对AWS模型供应的扩展持积极态度。\n美国放宽中国自动驾驶（AV）进口规则\n当前法规禁止含中国软硬件的电动车进口。但考虑到中国AV成本大幅下降，若规则放宽，将显著降低Uber和Lyft的车队成本，极大改善单位经济效益。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}