再创新高！贵金属暴涨后续怎么走？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

再创新高！贵金属暴涨后续怎么走？

券商中国01-06

在美国芝商所两次上调保证金之后，黄金白银等贵金属大幅震荡下，仍然保持高位上冲姿态，铜、铝等基本金属则在不断刷新历史高位。在经过2025年超60%的涨幅后，投资机构对于2026年黄金涨幅趋向于谨慎，但是对于涨幅超146%的白银仍然充满想象力。而国投白银LOF（161226）份额仍在创下历史高点。相对于贵金属而言，期货市场资金更偏爱铜铝等基本金属，特别是铜在两个交易日资金大幅净流入。白银比黄金还有想象...

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What will happen after the skyrocketing precious metals?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02899":0.9,"ZIJMF":0.9},"content_text":"在美国芝商所两次上调保证金之后，黄金白银等贵金属大幅震荡下，仍然保持高位上冲姿态，铜、铝等基本金属则在不断刷新历史高位。在经过2025年超60%的涨幅后，投资机构对于2026年黄金涨幅趋向于谨慎，但是对于涨幅超146%的白银仍然充满想象力。而国投白银LOF（161226）份额仍在创下历史高点。相对于贵金属而言，期货市场资金更偏爱铜铝等基本金属，特别是铜在两个交易日资金大幅净流入。白银比黄金还有想象空间1月6日，国内黄金主力2602合约收盘时，报价继续站上1000元/克关口上方。而白银主力2604合约，收盘价格创下历史新高，报19452元/千克，涨幅7.06%，成交量和持仓量均大幅增长，其中成交量增加了125.8万手，持仓量大幅增加了3.8万手，在5日23.9万手基础上升高到27.7万手。同期，国际现货黄金报价在4458美元/盎司附近，涨幅仅0.25%。而白银现货报价79美元上方，涨幅超3%。在经过2025年超64%的涨幅后，投资机构对于2026年黄金涨幅趋向于谨慎，但是对于涨幅超146%的白银仍然充满想象力。比如，美国银行金属研究报告认为，黄金今年仍将是关键的投资组合对冲工具，预计2026年黄金均价将达到每盎司4538美元（目前已经4458美元），而白银价格可能飙升至每盎司135至309美元的峰值区间。此外，瑞银集团在大幅调高2026年黄金价格预测到5000美元/盎司之后，在最新投资报告中向投资者发出最新的明确信号：虽然长期看多黄金的目标未变，且过去两个月金价已完成了该目标一半的涨幅，但短期警报已经拉响，金价上涨的“成色”不足，2025年12月的这波行情并非由黄金自身的独立利好驱动，而是单纯“搭了白银、铂金和钯金爆发的便车”。近几个月来，投资需求（尤其是散户投资者的需求）激增，2025年流入黄金ETF的资金量达到2020年以来的最高水平。数据显示，到2025年底，全球黄金ETF的资产管理规模已突破3500亿美元。目前，A股市场异常火爆的国投白银LOF（161226），6日成交量15.87亿元，仍然保持历史高位水平，而基金流通份额在5日达到31.39亿份，创下历史新高。铜铝基本金属更有上涨空间除了黄金白银等贵金属表现强劲，铜铝等基本金属表现同样不俗，国际铜价1月6日在1.3万美元/吨历史高点基础上，继续创历史新高。当日，A股市场，有色金属板块表现活跃，洛阳钼业、紫金矿业等多股创历史新高。紫金矿业盘中涨逾6%，股价创历史新高，总市值一度突破万亿元。目前，中信一级行业中，有色金属板块两个交易日上涨近7%，继续保持行业涨幅前列。期货市场上，铜连续两个交易日资金大幅流入，5日净流入40亿元，6日净流入59亿元，而市场“金铜铝”含量最高的有色金属ETF基金(516650)，近20个交易日份额更是增加了逾22亿份，最新规模近70亿元。瑞银集团的最新数据显示，美国持有全球约一半的铜库存，但其铜需求占全球总需求的比例不足10%，这意味着全球其他地区可能面临供应减少的风险。LME现货与三个月期铜的价差持续处于现货升水状态，这一市场结构表明短期内铜供应紧张。清和泉资本认为，2026年最大的投资机会之一，就是战略资源股，如铜、铝、煤等。当前这些上游品种供需均处于平衡或紧缺的状态，中上游品种则依托中国成本优势，盈利水平处于历史高位，而且这些行业均存在具备全球竞争力的企业，包括成本水平、管理水平等，其中铜的公司成长属性高一点，铝和煤炭的价值属性更突出；这些行业中，估值低的品种PE在10倍左右，高的在15倍左右，中期性价比依然十分可观。相聚资本认为，2026年大宗商品（尤其是铜）的投资机会值得重点关注。 铜因导电性能优异且成本低于白银，是电力相关领域（AI、新能源、新能源车）的核心材料，而AI、新能源等领域的投资需求推动铜的稀缺性凸显，因此铜价具备增长潜力，且铜在相关成本结构中占比很高。另一方面，铜的供给端缺乏特别大的新增资源，常年开采成本持续上升。即使明年AI投资增速下降，投资额仍会大于今年，而铜供给增长有限，因此铜供需会越来越紧，价格弹性较大。（文章来源：券商中国）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}