瑞银继续看涨黄金至4750美元/盎司：终结牛市的三大信号都还没看见_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

瑞银继续看涨黄金至4750美元/盎司：终结牛市的三大信号都还没看见

智通财经网01-06

进入2026年后，国际现货黄金一路高歌猛进，这让看涨到4750美元/盎司的瑞银也有些坐不住了。近日，瑞银发布一份针对黄金的研究报告，报告称黄金市场呈现出“高位狂热”态势，短短两个月就完成了一半目标涨幅——瑞银此前看涨黄金在2026年能上涨至4750美元/盎司。尽管市场担忧这一轮涨势已近尾声，但瑞银明确表态：黄金涨势或许进入后期，但尚未结束，除非牛市终结的三大信号同时触发，否则短期回调依然视为配置...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

暂无评论

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601553816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-06 23:06","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2601553816","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"瑞银继续看涨黄金至4750美元/盎司：终结牛市的三大信号都还没看见","media":"智通财经网","content":"<div>\n<p>进入2026年后，国际现货黄金一路高歌猛进，这让看涨到4750美元/盎司的瑞银也有些坐不住了。近日，瑞银发布一份针对黄金的研究报告，报告称黄金市场呈现出“高位狂热”态势，短短两个月就完成了一半目标涨幅——瑞银此前看涨黄金在2026年能上涨至4750美元/盎司。尽管市场担忧这一轮涨势已近尾声，但瑞银明确表态：黄金涨势或许进入后期，但尚未结束，除非牛市终结的三大信号同时触发，否则短期回调依然视为配置...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106231128a6faebdb&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银继续看涨黄金至4750美元/盎司：终结牛市的三大信号都还没看见</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银继续看涨黄金至4750美元/盎司：终结牛市的三大信号都还没看见\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-06 23:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106231128a6faebdb&s=b><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>进入2026年后，国际现货黄金一路高歌猛进，这让看涨到4750美元/盎司的瑞银也有些坐不住了。近日，瑞银发布一份针对黄金的研究报告，报告称黄金市场呈现出“高位狂热”态势，短短两个月就完成了一半目标涨幅——瑞银此前看涨黄金在2026年能上涨至4750美元/盎司。尽管市场担忧这一轮涨势已近尾声，但瑞银明确表态：黄金涨势或许进入后期，但尚未结束，除非牛市终结的三大信号同时触发，否则短期回调依然视为配置...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106231128a6faebdb&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ZIJMF","symbol_name":"Zijin Mining Group Company Ltd.","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106231128a6faebdb&s=b","article_id":"2601553816","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260106231128a6faebdb&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601553816","pubTimestamp":1767711961,"columns":[{"name":"黄金","id":5,"label_key":null}],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"进入2026年后，国际现货黄金一路高歌猛进，这让看涨到4750美元/盎司的瑞银也有些坐不住了。近日，瑞银发布一份针对黄金的研究报告，报告称黄金市场呈现出“高位狂热”态势，短短两个月就完成了一半目标涨幅——瑞银此前看涨黄金在2026年能上涨至4750美元/盎司。尽管市场担忧这一轮涨势已近尾声，但瑞银明确表态：黄金涨势或许进入后期，但尚未结束，除非牛市终结的三大信号同时触发，否则短期回调依然视为配置良机。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"ZIJMF":"Zijin Mining Group Company Ltd.","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","02899":"紫金矿业","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0828237940.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0348827113.USD":"ALLIANZ RCM CHINA \"AT\" ACC","LU0828237510.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF BIC (BRAZ IN CH)\"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0737861699.HKD":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A \" (HKD) ACC","BK1505":"一带一路","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","LU0886674414.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1224709979.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0329678337.USD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (USD)","LU0096374516.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIA EQUITY INCOME \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0266512127.USD":"摩根大通环球自然资源 A(acc)","LU0634319403.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","01818":"招金矿业","LU1831875114.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0737861772.HKD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A \" (HKD) ACC","LU1961090484.USD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1769817096.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (USD) INC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0561508036.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU1769817179.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERG MARKETS OPPO \"P\" (HKD) INC"},"translate_title":"UBS continues to be bullish on gold to $4,750/oz: None of the three major signals to end the bull market have been seen yet","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01818":0.9,"ZIJMF":0.9,"02899":0.9},"content_text":"进入2026年后，国际现货黄金一路高歌猛进，这让看涨到4750美元/盎司的瑞银也有些坐不住了。近日，瑞银发布一份针对黄金的研究报告，报告称黄金市场呈现出“高位狂热”态势，短短两个月就完成了一半目标涨幅——瑞银此前看涨黄金在2026年能上涨至4750美元/盎司。尽管市场担忧这一轮涨势已近尾声，但瑞银明确表态：黄金涨势或许进入后期，但尚未结束，除非牛市终结的三大信号同时触发，否则短期回调依然视为配置良机。此外，黄金矿业股仍是被低估的优质标的。Part.1当前市场现状：涨势分化，波动升温金价高位加速，跟涨白金属2025年8月起，黄金开启新一轮加速上涨，12月涨势进一步延伸，价格创下历史新高。但此次上涨并非黄金独立驱动，而是显著“依附”于白银、铂金、钯金等白金属的大幅波动。数据显示，同期铂金、白银、钯金涨幅远超黄金，白金属的“补涨”行情在流动性稀薄的市场环境中被放大，带动黄金被动走高。波动率与金银比发出短期警示黄金及白银波动率近期持续攀升，历史数据显示，高波动率虽与未来收益的相关性较弱，但多数情况下伴随短期回报走弱。同时，金银比已跌至65左右的关键水平，过去10年这一区间往往预示着两类金属短期回报将放缓。此外，中国上海期货交易所白银交易量激增但持仓量未同步增长，显示日内投机活动升温，短期存在退潮拖累黄金的风险。Part.2核心驱动：黄金上涨逻辑稳固尽管短期信号偏谨慎，但瑞银认为，黄金上涨的三大核心驱动力仍在生效，构成长期看涨的基石：美国实际利率走低：俄乌冲突后，黄金与实际利率的关系呈现不对称特征——利率下跌时金价正常上涨，利率上升时金价却未同步回调（部分归因于利率上涨源于期限溢价提升），这一格局持续支撑金价。发达市场期限溢价上升：全球宏观环境不确定性下，发达市场债券期限溢价走高，增强了黄金作为“无风险对冲资产”的吸引力。资产多样化需求旺盛：当前股债相关性仍维持正值，黄金成为少数能为机构与零售投资者提供风险分散的资产。瑞银预测，美国核心通胀需持续低于2.6%才能扭转股债正相关格局，而未来6个月通胀或升至3.5%，将持续支撑黄金需求。Part.3需求支撑：多维度资金持续流入1. 中国需求：长期增长确定性高中国房地产价格走弱、债券收益率下行，导致居民对传统资产的信心下滑，约48万亿美元的广义货币在资本账户封闭的环境下，持续从房地产向黄金和权益市场转移。尽管短期可能因投机退潮出现回调，但中国长期实物投资需求增长趋势明确。2. 央行与超主权机构购金持续发达经济体央行黄金储备占比长期维持高位，新兴市场央行则仍在“补库存”——其黄金储备仅占总储备的7%-11%，未来大概率将在金价回调时持续增持，形成金价“安全垫”，限制大幅下跌空间。3. 私人投资稳步流入2025年黄金ETF资金流入保持稳定，即便12月金价创纪录新高，也未出现非理性的抢购潮，显示私人投资者通过ETF进行资产多样化配置的行为更为理性，资金流入的可持续性更强。尽管金价持续走高，但黄金矿业股表现滞后，矿业股与金价的比值处于历史低位。瑞银认为，矿业股当前估值尚未充分反映金价高位水平，仍存在补涨空间，维持“买入”评级。Part.4黄金涨势终结的三大信号瑞银指出，只有出现以下三类明确信号，才标志着黄金涨势的真正结束：一：俄罗斯外汇储备重新可供俄央行动用二：美联储完成降息周期三：是全球财政政策确定性提升目前这三大条件均未满足，且历史复盘显示，当前缺乏黄金大幅下跌的宏观环境，如股市波动率骤降、信用利差收窄、通胀大幅回落等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}